2012 Pitt Panthers Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 47
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Buffalo 35-16 W 30.6 - 28.3 W
10-Sep Maine 35-29 W 22.8 - 31.7 L
17-Sep at Iowa 27-31 L 28.5 - 29.8 L
24-Sep Notre Dame 12-15 L 24.2 - 25.3 L
29-Sep South Florida 44-17 W 36.2 - 27.8 W
8-Oct at Rutgers 10-34 L 21.0 - 28.1 L
15-Oct Utah 14-26 L 16.1 - 23.3 L
26-Oct Connecticut 35-20 W 38.5 - 30.2 W
5-Nov Cincinnati 23-26 L 27.1 - 25.7 W
12-Nov at Louisville 21-14 W 31.7 - 29.0 W
25-Nov at West Virginia 20-21 L 24.1 - 26.7 L
3-Dec Syracuse 33-20 W 26.0 - 29.1 L
7-Jan vs SMU 6-28 L 19.4 - 28.4 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 24.2 83 22.8 38
Adj. Points Per Game 26.6 77 27.9 60

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Youngstown State NR
6-Sep at Cincinnati 44
15-Sep Virginia Tech 22
22-Sep Gardner-Webb NR
5-Oct at Syracuse 78
13-Oct Louisville 50
20-Oct at Buffalo 107
27-Oct Temple 73
3-Nov at Notre Dame 11
9-Nov at Connecticut 53
24-Nov Rutgers 40
1-Dec at South Florida 25
Five-Year F/+ Rk 27
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 48
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -1 / -4.1
TO Luck/Game 1.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (8, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.9

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 88 59 40 68
RUSHING 74 23 26 21
PASSING 77 82 54 105
Standard Downs 59 67 58
Passing Downs 59 23 93
Redzone 24 18 29
Q1 Rk 20 1st Down Rk 42
Q2 Rk 68 2nd Down Rk 44
Q3 Rk 40 3rd Down Rk 108
Q4 Rk 111
Adj. Line Yards Rk 8
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 115

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Tino Sunseri 6'2, 215 Sr. *** (5.6) 247 385 2,616 64.2% 10 11 60 13.5% 5.0
Trey Anderson 6'0, 180 So. ** (5.1) 12 33 55 36.4% 0 3 1 2.9% 1.3
Mark Myers


1 4 5 25.0% 0 0 1 20.0% 0.4
Chad Voytik 6'1, 183 Fr. **** (5.9)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Ray Graham RB 5'9, 195 Sr. **** (5.8) 164 964 5.9 2.7 9 +13.5
Tino Sunseri QB 6'2, 215 Sr. *** (5.6) 94 487 5.2 1.7 4 +5.0
Zach Brown RB 82 336 4.1 1.3 5 +2.6
Isaac Bennett RB 5'11, 190 So. ** (5.4) 58 237 4.1 0.9 2 -0.7
Corey Davis RB 5'11, 180 So. ** (5.4) 17 48 2.8 0.9 0 -2.0
Ronald Jones WR 5'8, 165 So. ** (5.4) 14 67 4.8 2.4 0 -0.4
Rushel Shell WR 6'0, 210 Fr. **** (6.0)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Devin Street WR 6'4, 190 Jr. ** (5.4) 91 53 754 58.2% 23.0% 56.0% 6.8
Mike Shanahan WR 6'5, 225 Sr. *** (5.5) 63 39 493 61.9% 15.9% 55.6% 6.8
Ray Graham RB 5'9, 195 Sr. **** (5.8) 40 30 200 75.0% 10.1% 42.5% 4.6
Hubie Graham TE 6'4, 230 Sr. **** (5.8) 39 28 325 71.8% 9.8% 76.9% 8.8
Zach Brown RB 31 25 178 80.6% 7.8% 61.3% 6.5
Cameron Saddler WR 5'7, 170 Sr. **** (5.8) 28 19 207 67.9% 7.1% 78.6% 9.4
Drew Carswell TE 6'4, 215 So. *** (5.7) 26 13 140 50.0% 6.6% 65.4% 3.1
Ronald Jones WR 5'8, 165 So. ** (5.4) 20 17 143 85.0% 5.1% 70.0% 7.7
Isaac Bennett RB 5'11, 190 So. ** (5.4) 17 14 88 82.4% 4.3% 41.2% 5.9
Anthony Gonzalez TE 6'3, 215 So. *** (5.7) 15 9 58 60.0% 3.8% 60.0% 2.9
Salath Williams WR 6'3, 195 So. *** (5.6)






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Lucas Nix RG 33 career starts
Jordan Gibbs RT 23 career starts
Ryan Turnley C 6'6, 320 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 career starts
Greg Gaskins LT 10 career starts
Ryan Schlieper LG 6'5, 305 Jr. *** (5.5) 8 career starts
Juantez Hollins RT 6'5, 305 Jr. *** (5.5) 7 career starts
Cory King RG 6'6, 325 Jr. *** (5.5) 5 career starts
Justin Virbitsky RT 6'4, 280 Sr. ** (5.4)
Matt Rotheram LT 6'6, 350 So. *** (5.7)
Zenel Demhasaj LT 6'7, 330 Jr. ** (5.4)
Shane Johnson LG 6'5, 325 So. *** (5.6)
Arthur Doakes RG 6'6, 360 So. *** (5.5)
Tom Ricketts OT 6'5, 275 So. **** (5.8)
Adam Bisnowaty OL 6'6, 275 Fr. **** (5.8)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 35 52 68 39
RUSHING 21 47 60 40
PASSING 72 55 71 38
Standard Downs 64 83 56
Passing Downs 27 30 25
Redzone 81 75 86
Q1 Rk 25 1st Down Rk 94
Q2 Rk 70 2nd Down Rk 51
Q3 Rk 78 3rd Down Rk 21
Q4 Rk 51
Adj. Line Yards Rk 61
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 12

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Chas Alecxih DT 13 44.5 6.2% 15.5 6.5 1 4 2
Aaron Donald DT 6'0, 270 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 34.5 4.8% 16 11 4 1
Myles Caragein DT 13 31.5 4.4% 3.5 2 2 1
Justin Hargrove DE 12 9.5 1.3% 2.5
Khaynin Mosley-Smith DT 6'0, 295 So. **** (5.8) 13 5.5 0.8%
Shayne Hale DE 6'4, 255 Sr. **** (5.9) 1 0.5 0.1% 0.5
Tyrone Ezell DT 6'4, 295 Jr. *** (5.7)

Devin Cook DE 6'4, 230 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Jack Lippert DT 6'4, 265 Jr. **** (5.8)

Bryan Murphy DE 6'3, 250 So. **** (5.8)

T.J. Clemmings DE 6'6, 295 So. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Max Gruder WILL 13 87.0 12.1% 8.5 0.5 3
Tristan Roberts SAM 13 44.5 6.2% 2 2
Brandon Lindsey OLB 13 42.5 5.9% 11 8.5 1 1 2
Todd Thomas OLB 6'2, 220 So. **** (5.9) 10 40.5 5.6% 4 1.5 1 3 1
Greg Williams SAM 13 38.0 5.3% 7 2 3 1
Ejuan Price WLB 6'0, 235 So. *** (5.5) 13 22.0 3.1% 6.5 4
Dan Mason (2009^) MLB 6'0, 220 Jr **** (5.8) 13 20.5 3.0% 3.5 2 1
Shane Gordon OLB 6'1, 230 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 17.0 2.4% 1 2 1
Kevin Adams LB 8 9.5 1.3% 2.5
Manny Williams (2009^) MLB 6'1, 225 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 7.5 1.1% 1
Carl Fleming OLB 6'1, 220 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 5.0 0.7% 1
LaQuentin Smith OLB 6'2, 225 So. *** (5.5) 8 4.5 0.6% 1.5 1
Joe Trebitz OLB 6'3, 220 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 4.0 0.6%
Eric Williams ILB 6'3, 215 So. *** (5.6)
Jason Frimpong ILB 5'10, 180 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Deaysean Rippy OLB 6'2, 198 Fr. **** (5.8)

^ Both Mason and M. Williams suffered injuries in 2010 and spent 2011 working back up to speed.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
K'Waun Williams CB 5'10, 190 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 56.5 7.9% 5 0.5 1 6 3 1
Jarred Holley S 5'10, 190 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 53.5 7.4% 5 2 1 3 1
Andrew Taglianetti S 5'11, 190 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 43.5 6.1% 1 1 1 2 1 2
Buddy Jackson CB 13 28.5 4.0% 0.5 4 1
Antwuan Reed CB 13 26.5 3.7% 2 7 3
Jason Hendricks S 6'0, 185 Jr. ** (5.3) 7 26.0 3.6% 1 3
Ray Vinopal (2010^) S 5'10, 195 So. ** (5.4) 12 25.5 3.2% 1.5 1 3
Brandon Ifill S 6'1, 200 So. *** (5.6) 13 10.5 1.5% 0.5 0.5
Cullen Christian (2010^) CB 6'0, 190 So. **** (5.9) 10 5.5 0.7%
Lloyd Carrington CB 6'0, 180 So. *** (5.5) 7 1.5 0.2%
Lafayette Pitts CB 5'11, 180 RSFr. *** (5.7)

^ Both Vinopal and Christian are Michigan transfers who are eligible this fall.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Matt Yoklic 6'4, 205 Jr. 62 41.2 5 23 21 71.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Kevin Harper 5'10, 180 Sr. 69 58.9 6 8.7%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Kevin Harper 5'10, 180 Sr. 32-33 14-17 82.4% 7-14 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Buddy Jackson KR 23 23.6 1
Corey Davis KR 5'11, 180 So. 17 21.1 0
Ronald Jones PR 5'8, 165 So. 14 6.6 0
Darius Patton PR 5'10, 170 So. 4 2.8 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 26
Net Punting 62
Net Kickoffs 58
Touchback Pct 89
Field Goal Pct 69
Kick Returns Avg 69
Punt Returns Avg 86

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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