2012 Oregon State Beavers Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 86
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Sacramento State 28-29 L 25.7 - 30.4 L
10-Sep at Wisconsin 0-35 L 21.2 - 24.2 L
24-Sep UCLA 19-27 L 22.1 - 31.3 L
1-Oct at Arizona State 20-35 L 22.4 - 26.4 L
8-Oct Arizona 37-27 W 24.9 - 29.1 L
15-Oct BYU 28-38 L 28.6 - 31.3 L
22-Oct at Washington State 44-21 W 33.0 - 28.1 W
29-Oct at Utah 8-27 L 22.9 - 29.4 L
5-Nov Stanford 13-38 L 28.8 - 29.3 L
12-Nov at California 6-23 L 23.1 - 30.8 L
19-Nov Washington 38-21 W 28.9 - 24.3 W
26-Nov at Oregon 21-49 L 24.5 - 29.6 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 21.8 100 30.8 89
Adj. Points Per Game 25.5 93 28.7 79

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Nicholls State NR
8-Sep Wisconsin 18
22-Sep at UCLA 58
29-Sep at Arizona 67
6-Oct Washington State 97
13-Oct at BYU 34
20-Oct Utah 33
27-Oct at Washington 59
3-Nov Arizona State 60
10-Nov at Stanford 9
17-Nov California 55
24-Nov Oregon 5
Five-Year F/+ Rk 33
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 45
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -8 / -13.2
TO Luck/Game 2.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.8

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 74 96 73 101
RUSHING 118 94 68 102
PASSING 19 84 74 90
Standard Downs 96 83 102
Passing Downs 50 24 64
Redzone 114 105 116
Q1 Rk 81 1st Down Rk 92
Q2 Rk 90 2nd Down Rk 51
Q3 Rk 98 3rd Down Rk 97
Q4 Rk 50
Adj. Line Yards Rk 88
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 54

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Sean Mannion 6'5, 215 So. **** (5.8) 305 473 3,332 64.5% 16 18 24 4.8% 6.3
Ryan Katz


13 25 104 52.0% 0 1 2 7.4% 3.6
Cody Vaz 6'0, 198 Jr. *** (5.5)






Jack Lomax 6'3, 171 Jr. ** (5.4)






Brent VanderVeen 6'5, 203 Fr. *** (5.7)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Malcolm Agnew RB 5'8, 188 So. *** (5.6) 89 419 4.7 1.3 5 -6.1
Terron Ward RB 5'7, 189 So. *** (5.6) 63 211 3.3 1.0 1 -9.6
Jovan Stevenson RB 5'11, 193 Jr. *** (5.5) 56 231 4.1 1.5 5 +0.2
Markus Wheaton WR-X 6'0, 178 Sr. *** (5.7) 25 190 7.6 4.4 0 +1.6
Jordan Jenkins RB 6'1, 205 Sr. NR 19 42 2.2 0.3 0 -5.3
James Rodgers FL 10 82 8.2 3.2 0 +2.2
Brandin Cooks FL 5'9, 190 So. **** (5.8) 10 41 4.1 1.8 0 -1.0
Storm Woods RB 5'10, 202 RSFr. *** (5.5)



Chris Brown RB 5'11, 200 Fr. *** (5.7)



Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Markus Wheaton WR-X 6'0, 178 Sr. *** (5.7) 121 73 986 60.3% 25.5% 57.0% 7.0
James Rodgers FL 61 45 518 73.8% 12.9% 62.3% 9.1
Brandin Cooks FL 5'9, 190 So. **** (5.8) 47 31 391 66.0% 9.9% 53.2% 7.4
Joe Halahuni HB 44 31 268 70.5% 9.3% 47.7% 7.1
Jordan Bishop SLOT 6'3, 207 Sr. ** (5.1) 41 31 384 75.6% 8.6% 56.1% 10.2
Jordan Jenkins RB 6'1, 205 Sr. NR 39 31 251 79.5% 8.2% 43.6% 7.6
Jovan Stevenson RB 5'11, 193 Jr. *** (5.5) 31 20 159 64.5% 6.5% 58.1% 4.9
Colby Prince TE 6'5, 260 Sr. ** (5.1) 24 12 66 50.0% 5.1% 54.2% 1.3
Terron Ward RB 5'7, 189 So. *** (5.6) 17 14 76 82.4% 3.6% 70.6% 5.0
Kevin Cummings SLOT 6'1, 178 Jr. *** (5.5) 16 10 120 62.5% 3.4% 56.3% 6.5
Obum Gwacham WR-X 6'5, 224 So. ** (5.2) 14 8 147 57.1% 3.0% 42.9% 8.6
Micah Hatfield FL 6'1, 178 Jr. ** (5.0) 4 3 18 75.0% 0.8% 50.0% 4.5
Connor Hamlett HB 6'7, 259 So. ** (5.3)
Richard Mullaney WR-X 6'1, 191 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Kellen Clute HB 6'4, 246 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Caleb Smith TE 6'7, 240 Fr. **** (5.8)
Malik Gilmore WR 6'3, 195 Fr. *** (5.7)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Mike Remmers LT 44 career starts
Grant Johnson C 35 career starts
Michael Philipp RT 6'4, 324 Jr. **** (6.0) 22 career starts
Burke Ellis RG 20 career starts
Colin Kelly RT 6'5, 295 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 career starts
Grant Enger RG 6'5, 281 Jr. *** (5.6) 10 career starts
Josh Andrews LG 6'2, 295 Jr. *** (5.6) 6 career starts
Geoff Garner C 2 career starts
Derek Nielsen RT 6'4, 270 So. NR
Darryl Jackson LT 6'6, 286 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Roman Sapolu C 6'2, 284 So. *** (5.5)
Michael Beaton RG 6'3, 292 So. *** (5.5)
Justin Addie LT 6'2, 323 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Stanley Hasiak OL 6'5, 305 Jr. *** (5.6)
Isaac Seumalo OL 6'3, 280 Fr. **** (6.0)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 84 46 66 37
RUSHING 101 73 89 62
PASSING 46 33 42 35
Standard Downs 36 53 28
Passing Downs 53 66 47
Redzone 89 83 90
Q1 Rk 28 1st Down Rk 42
Q2 Rk 73 2nd Down Rk 52
Q3 Rk 35 3rd Down Rk 62
Q4 Rk 52
Adj. Line Yards Rk 115
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 35

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Scott Crichton DE 6'3, 258 So. *** (5.6) 12 61.0 8.8% 14.5 6 3 6 1
Dylan Wynn DE 6'2, 240 So. *** (5.7) 12 31.0 4.5% 5.5 5
Kevin Frahm DT 11 23.5 3.4% 1.5 1 1
Andrew Seumalo DT 6'3, 281 Sr. **** (6.0) 12 22.0 3.2% 4.5 2.5 2
Taylor Henry DE 7 12.0 1.7% 3.5 3 1
Rusty Fernando DE 6'3, 232 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 10.5 1.5% 3.5 3.5
Ben Motter DT 11 8.0 1.2% 1 1
Rudolf Fifita DE 6'3, 263 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 6.0 0.9% 1 1
Castro Masaniai DT 6'3, 351 Sr. ** (5.1) 5 5.0 0.7% 1.5 1
Mana Rosa DT 6'3, 268 Jr. *** (5.5) 7 2.5 0.4%
Devon Kell DE 6'4, 251 Jr. NR 7 1.5 0.2%
Joe Lopez DT 6'0, 275 So. NR 6 1.0 0.1%
Mana Tuivailala DT 6'3, 287 So. *** (5.6) 2 0.5 0.1%
Desmond Collins DT 6'2, 269 RSFr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Michael Doctor WLB 6'0, 222 Jr. *** (5.7) 12 58.0 8.3% 4 2.5 2 2 1
Feti Unga MLB 6'1, 243 Sr. ** (5.4) 9 44.0 6.3% 2.5 1
Cameron Collins SLB 11 39.5 5.7% 3.5 0.5 2 1
Rueben Robinson MLB 6'3, 238 Sr. ** (5.4) 10 26.5 3.8% 1
D.J. Welch SLB 6'2, 223 So. *** (5.7) 10 14.0 2.0% 1 1
Tony Wilson MLB 7 8.5 1.2%
Jabral Johnson SLB 6'0, 234 So. *** (5.5) 9 4.0 0.6%
Josh Williams MLB 6'0, 226 So. NR 4 2.5 0.4%
Shiloah Te'o WLB 6 1.5 0.2% 0.5
Cade Cowdin WLB 6'2, 220 Jr. *** (5.6)
Dyllan Mafi LB 6'3, 215 Jr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Anthony Watkins S 6'1, 218 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 64.0 9.2% 1 1 2
Rashaad Reynolds CB 5'10, 183 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 58.5 8.4% 1 1 8
Lance Mitchell S 12 58.5 8.4% 2 6 1
Jordan Poyer CB 6'0, 190 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 46.0 6.6% 0.5 4 12
Ryan Murphy S 6'3, 213 So. *** (5.5) 12 24.5 3.5% 0.5 1 3
Sean Martin CB 6'0, 186 Jr. ** (5.3) 3 7.5 1.1% 1 1 1
Keynan Parker CB 5'11, 183 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 5.5 0.8%
Josh LaGrone S 5 5.5 0.8%
Tyrequek Zimmerman S 5'11, 188 So. *** (5.6) 12 5.0 0.7%
Brian Watkins CB 5'9, 186 Sr. NR 3 1.5 0.2%
Malcolm Marable CB 5'7, 172 So. *** (5.7)
Peter Ashton S 6'1, 211 RSFr. ** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Johnny Hekker 50 44.0 6 8 20 56.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Trevor Romaine 5'10, 193 So. 54 64.9 10 18.5%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Trevor Romaine 5'10, 193 So. 27-28 12-14 85.7% 3-8 37.5%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jordan Poyer KR 6'0, 190 Sr. 30 22.7 0
Malcolm Marable KR 5'7, 164 So. 13 24.8 0
Brandin Cooks KR 5'9, 190 So. 8 22.4 0
Jordan Poyer PR 6'0, 190 Sr. 10 14.1 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 46
Net Punting 16
Net Kickoffs 15
Touchback Pct 35
Field Goal Pct 66
Kick Returns Avg 51
Punt Returns Avg 7

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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