2012 Oregon Ducks Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-2 | Adj. Record: 14-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 5
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep vs. LSU 27-40 L 34.7 - 22.4 W
10-Sep Nevada 69-20 W 40.1 - 27.2 W
17-Sep Missouri State 56-7 W 36.7 - 26.5 W
24-Sep at Arizona 56-31 W 34.3 - 26.4 W
6-Oct California 43-15 W 36.4 - 24.8 W
15-Oct Arizona State 41-27 W 31.8 - 26.1 W
22-Oct at Colorado 45-2 W 29.1 - 12.1 W
29-Oct Washington State 43-28 W 32.2 - 26.7 W
5-Nov at Washington 34-17 W 28.6 - 20.2 W
12-Nov at Stanford 53-30 W 33.9 - 25.3 W
19-Nov USC 35-38 L 30.9 - 28.8 W
26-Nov Oregon State 49-21 W 32.8 - 25.3 W
2-Dec UCLA 49-31 W 28.7 - 25.8 W
2-Jan vs. Wisconsin 45-38 W 43.3 - 26.0 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 46.1 3 24.6 52
Adj. Points Per Game 33.8 6 24.5 19

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Arkansas State 87
8-Sep Fresno State 81
15-Sep Tennessee Tech NR
22-Sep Arizona 67
29-Sep vs. Washington State 97
6-Oct Washington 59
18-Oct at Arizona State 60
27-Oct Colorado 101
3-Nov at USC 6
10-Nov at California 55
17-Nov Stanford 9
24-Nov at Oregon State 74
Five-Year F/+ Rk 7
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 11
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +9 / +12.4
TO Luck/Game -1.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (5, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** -4.5

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 4 6 11 6
RUSHING 5 5 9 5
PASSING 68 11 29 7
Standard Downs 3 6 3
Passing Downs 40 61 36
Redzone 3 4 3
Q1 Rk 6 1st Down Rk 6
Q2 Rk 8 2nd Down Rk 8
Q3 Rk 5 3rd Down Rk 27
Q4 Rk 37
Adj. Line Yards Rk 1
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 12

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Darron Thomas 211 339 2,761 62.2% 33 7 9 2.6% 7.7
Bryan Bennett 6'3, 205 So. **** (5.8) 25 46 369 54.3% 6 0 3 6.1% 7.2
Marcus Mariota 6'4, 196 RSFr. *** (5.7)







Jake Rodrigues 6'3, 210 Fr. **** (5.8)







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
LaMichael James RB 247 1,805 7.3 3.7 18 +34.4
Kenjon Barner RB 5'11, 195 Sr. *** (5.6) 152 939 6.2 2.7 11 +15.0
De'Anthony Thomas RB/WR 5'9, 173 So. ***** (6.1) 55 595 10.8 6.8 7 +17.2
Darron Thomas QB 47 275 5.9 2.7 3 +4.4
Tra Carson RB 45 252 5.6 2.1 1 -1.3
Ayele Forde RB 5'7, 177 So. NR 36 176 4.9 1.6 2 -0.1
Bryan Bennett QB 6'3, 205 So. **** (5.8) 20 217 10.9 5.8 0 +2.8
Kenny Bassett RB 5'9, 176 So. NR





Byron Marshall RB 5'10, 195 Fr. **** (5.8)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Lavasier Tuinei WR 82 48 599 58.5% 22.0% 67.1% 5.6
De'Anthony Thomas RB/WR 5'9, 173 So. ***** (6.1) 61 46 605 75.4% 16.4% 57.4% 10.6
Josh Huff WR 5'11, 207 Jr. **** (5.8) 53 31 430 58.5% 14.2% 64.2% 7.5
David Paulson TE 46 31 438 67.4% 12.3% 63.0% 9.4
LaMichael James RB 26 17 210 65.4% 7.0% 61.5% 7.4
Kenjon Barner RB 5'11, 195 Sr. *** (5.6) 25 17 184 68.0% 6.7% 64.0% 7.0
Rahsaan Vaughn WR 6'2, 192 Sr. **** (5.8) 21 14 184 66.7% 5.6% 57.1% 9.1
Justin Hoffman WR 6'1, 206 Sr. NR 18 10 133 55.6% 4.8% 61.1% 5.7
Daryle Hawkins WR 6'4, 197 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 5 102 41.7% 3.2% 58.3% 1.3
Colt Lyerla TE 6'5, 238 So. ***** (6.1) 10 7 147 70.0% 2.7% 80.0% 13.2
Eric Dungy WR 6'1, 181 So. ** (5.4) 2 2 34 100.0% 0.5% 100.0% 17.0
Keanon Lowe WR 5'9, 179 So. **** (5.8)
Christian French TE 6'5, 231 RSFr. **** (5.9)
B.J. Kelley WR 6'2, 179 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Bralon Addison WR 5'10, 182 Fr. **** (5.8)
Evan Baylis TE 6'5, 225 Fr. **** (5.8)
Pharaoh Brown TE 6'6, 220 Fr. **** (5.8)
Dwayne Stanford WR 6'5,185 Fr. **** (5.8)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Mark Asper RG 38 career starts
Carson York LG 6'5, 292 Sr. **** (5.8) 37 career starts
Darrion Weems LT 22 career starts
Hroniss Grasu C 6'3, 291 So. *** (5.7) 14 career starts
Nick Cody RT 6'5, 301 Sr. **** (5.8) 14 career starts
Ryan Clanton RG 6'5, 300 Sr. **** (5.8)
Mana Greig LG 5'11, 291 Jr. NR
Karrington Armstrong C 6'3, 270 Jr. *** (5.6)
Everett Benyard III RT 6'7, 325 Jr. *** (5.6)
Jake Fisher LT 6'6, 285 So. *** (5.7)
Trevor Fox RG 6'5, 280 Jr. *** (5.5)
Tyler Johnstone RT 6'6, 271 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Andre Yruretagoyena RT 6'5, 264 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Kyle Long OL 6'7, 285 Jr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 67 10 10 8
RUSHING 54 17 22 17
PASSING 88 6 5 9
Standard Downs 10 12 10
Passing Downs 10 11 11
Redzone 8 6 11
Q1 Rk 8 1st Down Rk 10
Q2 Rk 13 2nd Down Rk 11
Q3 Rk 21 3rd Down Rk 17
Q4 Rk 25
Adj. Line Yards Rk 74
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 10

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Terrell Turner DE 14 35.5 4.0% 9 5.5 2 1 1
Dion Jordan DE 6'7, 240 Sr. **** (5.8) 14 33.5 3.8% 13 7.5 1
Taylor Hart DT 6'6, 283 Jr. *** (5.7) 14 32.0 3.6% 3 2.5 2 1
Brandon Hanna DE 14 26.0 2.9% 3 2 1 3
Isaac Remington DT 6'4, 286 Sr. *** (5.6) 14 21.5 2.4% 4 1.5 2
Wade Keliikipi DT 6'3, 300 Jr. ** (5.4) 14 17.5 2.0% 1.5 1.5
Ricky Heimuli DT 6'4, 321 Jr. **** (5.9) 14 16.5 1.9% 0.5
Tony Washington DE 6'3, 262 So. *** (5.6) 10 14.5 1.6% 1 1 1 1
Koa Ka'ai DE 6'4, 249 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Sam Kamp DE 6'4, 236 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Ryan McCandless DE 6'2, 213 RSFr. NR
Stetzon Bair DT 6'8, 265 Jr. *** (5.6)
Arik Armstead DE 6'8, 280 Fr. **** (6.0)
Alex Balducci DE 6'4, 262 Fr. **** (5.9)
DeForest Buckner DE 6'7, 230 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Michael Clay WLB 5'11, 225 Sr. *** (5.6) 11 78.0 8.8% 8.5 3 2 2 2 2
Dewitt Stuckey MLB 14 55.0 6.2% 6 3 1 4 1
Josh Kaddu SLB 14 41.0 4.6% 9.5 6.5 2
Kiko Alonso MLB 6'4, 240 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 37.0 4.2% 6 2.5 2
Boseko Lokombo SLB 6'3, 232 Jr. *** (5.7) 14 27.5 3.1% 3.5 2 2 3 1 1
Keloni Kamalani SLB 5'11, 208 Jr. NR 14 17.0 1.9% 1 1
Derrick Malone MLB 6'2, 208 So. *** (5.7) 14 12.5 1.4% 1
Rodney Hardrick WLB 6'1, 237 So. *** (5.6) 4 6.5 0.7% 2
Anthony Wallace MLB 6'0, 231 So. **** (5.8) 6 6.0 0.7% 1 2
Isaac Ava MLB 5'10, 243 So. NR 2 1.0 0.1%
Tyson Coleman SLB 6'1, 217 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Rahim Cassell WLB 6'0, 215 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Brett Bafaro LB 6'2, 220 Fr. **** (5.8)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
John Boyett FS 5'10, 202 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 87.5 9.9% 3.5 0.5 1 6
Eddie Pleasant ROV 13 48.5 5.5% 2 1 3 8
Avery Patterson ROV 5'10, 175 Jr. *** (5.7) 14 47.0 5.3% 1.5 5 1 1
Troy Hill CB 5'11, 165 So. *** (5.7) 14 39.0 4.4% 1 1 6
Terrance Mitchell CB 6'0, 189 So. *** (5.7) 14 35.5 4.0% 3 2 10 3 1
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB 5'10, 182 So. **** (5.8) 14 27.5 3.1% 0.5 8
Brian Jackson ROV 5'10, 194 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 18.5 2.1%
Anthony Gildon CB 9 16.5 1.9% 0.5 1 4
Erick Dargan FS 5'11, 208 So. **** (5.8) 9 12.0 1.4% 1 1
Cliff Harris CB 6 7.5 0.8% 0.5 1 5
Dior Mathis CB 5'9, 177 So. **** (5.8) 5 6.5 0.7% 1
Isaac Dixon ROV 5'11, 196 RSFr. *** (5.6)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Jackson Rice 6'3, 225 Sr. 48 45.9 2 17 17 70.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Alejandro Maldonado 5'10, 198 Jr. 56 64.4 1 1.8%
Rob Beard 6'0, 225 Sr. 55 62 1 1.8%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Alejandro Maldonado 5'10, 198 Jr. 77-78 5-6 83.3% 2-6 33.3%
Rob Beard 6'0, 225 Sr. 3-3 2-2 100.0% 0-0 N/A
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
De'Anthony Thomas KR 5'9, 173 So. 36 27.3 2
Josh Huff KR 5'11, 207 Jr. 8 21.8 0
LaMichael James PR 13 10.7 1
Cliff Harris PR 9 7.6 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 39
Net Punting 1
Net Kickoffs 54
Touchback Pct 113
Field Goal Pct 81
Kick Returns Avg 14
Punt Returns Avg 47

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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