2012 Oklahoma State Cowboys Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-1 | Adj. Record: 12-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 3
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep UL-Lafayette 61-34 W 37.0 - 22.5 W
8-Sep Arizona 37-14 W 31.2 - 26.7 W
17-Sep at Tulsa 59-33 W 34.8 - 27.5 W
24-Sep at Texas A&M 30-29 W 31.5 - 27.0 W
8-Oct Kansas 70-28 W 31.0 - 30.6 W
15-Oct at Texas 38-26 W 36.3 - 25.8 W
22-Oct at Missouri 45-24 W 35.7 - 26.4 W
29-Oct Baylor 59-24 W 36.1 - 24.8 W
5-Nov Kansas State 52-45 W 39.5 - 29.8 W
12-Nov at Texas Tech 66-6 W 31.6 - 18.6 W
18-Nov at Iowa State 31-37 L 29.4 - 31.2 L
3-Dec Oklahoma 44-10 W 34.8 - 20.5 W
2-Jan vs Stanford 41-38 W 37.4 - 28.8 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 48.7 2 26.8 61
Adj. Points Per Game 34.3 5 26.2 40

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Savannah State NR
8-Sep at Arizona 67
15-Sep UL-Lafayette 99
19-Sep Texas 10
13-Oct at Kansas 105
20-Oct Iowa State 85
27-Oct TCU 21
3-Nov at Kansas State 35
10-Nov West Virginia 17
17-Nov Texas Tech 38
24-Nov at Oklahoma 3
1-Dec at Baylor 28
Five-Year F/+ Rk 13
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 30
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +21 / +12.2
TO Luck/Game +3.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (6, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -5.8

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 3 4 2 8
RUSHING 51 1 1 1
PASSING 2 13 3 21
Standard Downs 6 3 8
Passing Downs 9 8 12
Redzone 14 12 17
Q1 Rk 2 1st Down Rk 5
Q2 Rk 5 2nd Down Rk 7
Q3 Rk 7 3rd Down Rk 4
Q4 Rk 39
Adj. Line Yards Rk 17
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 10

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Brandon Weeden 409 565 4,727 72.4% 37 13 12 2.1% 8.0
Clint Chelf 6'1, 205 Jr. *** (5.5) 20 30 307 66.7% 3 0 0 0.0% 10.2
J.W. Walsh 6'2, 205 RSFr. **** (5.9)






Wes Lunt 6'5, 210 Fr. **** (5.8)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Joseph Randle RB 6'1, 200 Jr. **** (5.8) 208 1,216 5.8 2.4 24 +35.5
Jeremy Smith RB 5'10, 208 Jr. **** (5.8) 91 646 7.1 3.8 9 +20.8
Herschel Sims RB


31 242 7.8 4.6 2 +3.9
Desmond Roland RB 6'2, 203 So. *** (5.5) 17 95 5.6 2.2 0 -1.4
Dominic Ramacher FB 6'3, 230 Fr. *** (5.7)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Justin Blackmon WR 160 121 1,522 75.6% 28.0% 72.5% 10.7
Josh Cooper IR 93 71 715 76.3% 16.3% 68.8% 8.2
Tracy Moore IR 6'2, 215 Sr. *** (5.7) 68 45 672 66.2% 11.9% 63.2% 9.8
Joseph Randle RB 6'1, 200 Jr. **** (5.8) 47 43 266 91.5% 8.2% 68.1% 7.2
Isaiah Anderson WR 5'10, 175 Sr. ** (5.2) 38 28 315 73.7% 6.6% 81.6% 8.3
Hubert Anyiam WR 39 27 370 69.2% 6.8% 76.9% 9.6
Colton Chelf WR 32 21 291 65.6% 5.6% 71.9% 10.2
Josh Stewart IR 5'10, 178 So. *** (5.7) 23 19 291 82.6% 4.0% 78.3% 12.6
Michael Harrison WR 27 20 255 74.1% 4.7% 63.0% 10.0
Jeremy Smith RB 5'10, 208 Jr. **** (5.8) 18 11 81 61.1% 3.1% 55.6% 3.7
Charlie Moore WR 6'2, 202 Jr. ** (5.4) 5 3 56 60.0% 0.9% 80.0% 11.4
David Glidden IR 5'7, 171 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Torrance Carr IR 6'2, 215 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Blake Jackson TE 6'4, 235 Jr. *** (5.7)
C.J. Curry WR 6'2, 210 Fr. **** (5.8)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Levy Adcock LT 26 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big 12
Grant Garner C 25 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big 12
Lane Taylor RG 6'3, 328 Sr. ** (5.3) 36 career starts
Nick Martinez LG 26 career starts
Jonathan Rush LG 6'4, 305 Sr. *** (5.5) 16 career starts
Parker Graham RT 6'7, 315 Jr. ** (5.2) 5 career starts
Michael Bowie RT


5 career starts
Casey LaBrue C 1 career start
Daniel Koenig RT 6'6, 310 So. *** (5.6)
Brandon Webb LG 6'3, 326 Jr. **** (5.8)
Eli Dickerson RG 6'6, 310 So. *** (5.6)
Evan Epstein C 6'3, 295 Sr. ** (5.4)
Jake Jenkins C 6'3, 290 So. *** (5.5)
Devin Davis LT 6'5, 290 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Chris Grisbhy OL 6'5, 315 So. *** (5.6)
Michael Wilson OL 6'6, 275 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 107 16 34 10
RUSHING 90 26 30 29
PASSING 107 14 39 6
Standard Downs 26 37 16
Passing Downs 13 33 5
Redzone 10 13 13
Q1 Rk 17 1st Down Rk 24
Q2 Rk 6 2nd Down Rk 23
Q3 Rk 22 3rd Down Rk 16
Q4 Rk 64
Adj. Line Yards Rk 45
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 85

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jamie Blatnick DE 13 42.0 5.8% 13.5 8 1 7 2 1
Nigel Nicholas DE 6'3, 269 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 29.0 4.0% 10 2 2 1
Richetti Jones DE 13 27.5 3.8% 6.5 4 1 1 3 3
Tyler Johnson DE 6'1, 240 Jr. ** (5.4) 9 25.5 3.5% 2.5 1
Ryan Robinson DE 6'4, 250 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 19.0 2.6% 3 1 1
Anthony Rogers DT 6'3, 293 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 17.5 2.4% 2.5 1 1 1
Cooper Bassett DE 6'5, 270 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 15.5 2.1% 4 1 1 1 1
Christian Littlehead DT 6'2, 305 So. *** (5.6) 12 14.5 2.0% 2 1
Wilson Youman DE 12 9.0 1.2% 4 1 1
James Castleman DT 6'2, 295 So. *** (5.7) 11 7.0 1.0%
Davidell Collins DT 6'5, 267 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 6.5 0.9% 2 1
Mike Mustafa DT


Calvin Barnett DT 6'3, 283 Jr. *** (5.7)
Eric Davis DE 6'3, 250 Fr. *** (5.7)
Trace Clark DE 6'5, 245 Fr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Alex Elkins WLB 6'3, 230 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 81.0 11.1% 5 1 1 2 2 1
Caleb Lavey MLB 6'3, 240 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 60.0 8.3% 5 1 1 1
Shaun Lewis SLB 5'11, 225 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 50.5 7.0% 9.5 1.5 2 2 1
Joe Mitchell SLB 6'3, 225 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 29.0 4.0% 1
James Thomas SLB 13 23.5 3.2% 4.5 3 4 5 1 2
Lyndell Johnson SLB 6'3, 210 So. *** (5.7) 10 9.5 1.3% 1
Nico Ornelas WLB 6'1, 215 So. *** (5.5) 11 5.0 0.6%
1
Kris Catlin WLB 6'1, 225 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Ryan Simmons MLB 6'0, 238 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Demarcus Sherod MLB 6'0, 220 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Seth Jacobs LB 6'2, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)
Jeremiah Tshimanga LB 6'2, 226 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Daytawion Lowe FS 5'11, 205 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 86.0 11.8% 2 2 1 5 1 3
Markelle Martin SS 13 64.5 8.9% 5 11 1 2
Brodrick Brown CB 5'8, 185 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 63.5 8.7% 4 5 15 2
Justin Gilbert CB 6'0, 194 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 53.5 7.4% 1 5 10 1
Deion Imade FS 5'11, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 10 25.5 3.5%
Zack Craig SS 6'1, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 19.5 2.7% 1 1
Andrae May CB 6'0, 195 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 18.0 2.5% 1
Larry Stephens CB 5'10, 182 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 11.5 1.6%
Devin Hedgepeth CB 5'11, 185 Jr. *** (5.6) 4 6.5 0.9% 2 1
Lavocheya Cooper SS 6'0, 195 Jr. *** (5.6) 5 6.0 0.8% 1
Isaac Maselera FS 5'11, 183 So. *** (5.5) 9 3.0 0.3%
Shamiel Gary SS 6'0, 210 Jr. ** (5.1)
Jonovan Griffin CB 5'11, 180 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Miketavius Jones CB 5'10, 170 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Ashton Lampkin DB 5'11, 175 Fr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Quinn Sharp 6'1, 189 Sr. 47 46.3 8 9 12 44.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Quinn Sharp 6'1, 189 Sr. 114 68.5 61 53.5%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Quinn Sharp 6'1, 189 Sr. 79-80 20-22 90.9% 2-3 66.7%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Justin Gilbert KR 6'0, 205 Jr. 26 27.0 2
Josh Stewart KR 5'10, 170 So. 13 20.1 0
Isaiah Anderson KR 5'10, 178 Sr. 5 18.2 0
Josh Cooper PR 19 3.9 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 7
Net Punting 20
Net Kickoffs 9
Touchback Pct 2
Field Goal Pct 5
Kick Returns Avg 50
Punt Returns Avg 115

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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