2012 Ohio State Buckeyes Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 38
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Akron 42-0 W 30.4 - 6.6 W
10-Sep Toledo 27-22 W 21.6 - 22.0 L
17-Sep at Miami 6-24 L 20.7 - 27.2 L
24-Sep Colorado 37-17 W 28.0 - 27.4 W
1-Oct Michigan State 7-10 L 22.3 - 24.4 L
8-Oct at Nebraska 27-34 L 28.8 - 29.8 L
15-Oct at Illinois 17-7 W 27.7 - 26.6 W
29-Oct Wisconsin 33-29 W 27.8 - 22.9 W
5-Nov Indiana 34-20 W 27.5 - 29.3 L
12-Nov at Purdue 23-26 L 24.2 - 28.5 L
19-Nov Penn State 14-20 L 28.1 - 29.0 L
26-Nov at Michigan 34-40 L 33.9 - 31.2 W
2-Jan vs. Florida 17-24 L 29.9 - 25.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 24.5 81 21.0 27
Adj. Points Per Game 27.0 69 25.4 26

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Miami (Ohio) 77
8-Sep Central Florida 49
15-Sep California 55
22-Sep UAB 115
29-Sep at Michigan State 19
6-Oct Nebraska 24
13-Oct at Indiana 98
20-Oct Purdue 70
27-Oct at Penn State 37
3-Nov Illinois 51
17-Nov at Wisconsin 18
24-Nov Michigan 12
Five-Year F/+ Rk 9
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 6
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +5 / +6.6
TO Luck/Game -0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 16 (7, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin** -2.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 107 68 87 58
RUSHING 27 35 40 33
PASSING 115 106 118 79
Standard Downs 60 77 51
Passing Downs 53 72 44
Redzone 51 78 40
Q1 Rk 105 1st Down Rk 59
Q2 Rk 41 2nd Down Rk 74
Q3 Rk 26 3rd Down Rk 39
Q4 Rk 45
Adj. Line Yards Rk 27
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 120

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Braxton Miller 6'3, 210 So. **** (6.0) 85 157 1,159 54.1% 13 4 39 19.9% 4.9
Joe Bauserman


40 86 492 46.5% 5 1 7 7.5% 4.8
Ken Guiton 6'2, 195 Jr. *** (5.5)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Dan Herron RB 133 672 5.1 2.2 3 -2.8
Braxton Miller QB 6'3, 210 So. **** (6.0) 120 922 7.7 3.7 7 +20.1
Carlos Hyde RB 6'0, 238 Jr. **** (5.8) 106 566 5.3 2.1 6 +4.2
Jordan Hall RB 5'9, 195 Sr. **** (5.8) 100 408 4.1 1.0 2 -4.6
Rod Smith RB 6'3, 230 So. **** (5.9) 29 116 4.0 0.7 1 -4.3
Joe Bauserman QB 12 63 5.3 1.5 1 +1.6
Warren Ball RB 6'2, 200 Fr. **** (5.8)





Bri'onte Dunn RB 6'2, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)




Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Devin Smith WR 6'3, 190 So. *** (5.7) 31 14 294 45.2% 13.9% 41.9% 6.6
Corey Brown WR-H 5'11, 182 Jr. **** (5.9) 28 14 205 50.0% 12.6% 50.0% 4.8
Jake Stoneburner TE 6'5, 245 Sr. **** (5.9) 25 14 193 56.0% 11.2% 32.0% 5.6
Chris Fields WR-H 6'0, 180 Jr. **** (5.9) 22 8 114 36.4% 9.9% 63.6% -0.7
DeVier Posey WR 21 12 162 57.1% 9.4% 42.9% 6.8
Jordan Hall RB 5'9, 195 Sr. **** (5.8) 17 12 114 70.6% 7.6% 58.8% 6.8
Verlon Reed WR-Z 6'0, 195 So. *** (5.6) 14 9 132 64.3% 6.3% 71.4% 9.2
Carlos Hyde RB 6'0, 238 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 10 73 76.9% 5.8% 61.5% 5.9
Dan Herron RB 10 8 34 80.0% 4.5% 80.0% 9.1
Reid Fragel^ TE 10 5 64 50.0% 4.5% 60.0% 3.9
Evan Spencer WR-Z 6'2, 205 So. *** (5.7) 7 3 78 42.9% 3.1% 42.9% 7.4
Jeff Heuerman TE 6'5, 247 So. *** (5.7) 2 1 25 50.0% 1.3% 50.0% 12.5
Nick Vannett TE 6'6, 248 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Michael Thomas WR 6'4, 203 Fr. **** (5.8)

^ Fragel moved to offensive tackle this spring.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Mike Brewster C 49 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Big Ten
Mike Adams LT 25 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Big Ten
J.B. Shugarts RT 35 career starts
Andrew Norwell LG 6'6, 304 Jr. **** (5.9) 13 career starts
Jack Mewhort LT 6'6, 310 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 career starts
Marcus Hall RG 6'5, 317 Jr. **** (6.0) 6 career starts
Antonio Underwood RG 6'2, 301 So. *** (5.6) 1 career start
Brian Bobek C
Corey Linsley C 6'3, 292 Jr. **** (5.8)
Reid Fragel RT 6'8, 280 Sr. *** (5.7)
Daryl Baldwin LT 6'5, 292 So. *** (5.7)
Tommy Brown LG 6'4, 310 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Joe O'Connor OL 6'4, 295 Fr. **** (5.9)
Taylor Decker RT 6'7, 310 Fr. **** (5.8)
Kyle Dodson OL 6'6, 315 Fr. **** (5.8)
Jacoby Boren C 6'2, 283 Fr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 19 26 33 25
RUSHING 51 19 23 23
PASSING 14 29 37 30
Standard Downs 27 29 26
Passing Downs 40 42 34
Redzone 73 57 81
Q1 Rk 58 1st Down Rk 25
Q2 Rk 18 2nd Down Rk 31
Q3 Rk 18 3rd Down Rk 49
Q4 Rk 32
Adj. Line Yards Rk 38
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 81

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jonathan Hankins DT 6'3, 335 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 49.5 7.3% 11 3 1
John Simon DE 6'2, 270 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 42.0 6.2% 16 7 3 1
Adam Bellamy DE 6'4, 302 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 22.0 3.3% 1.5 1 1 1 1
Garrett Goebel DT 6'3, 290 Sr. **** (6.0) 13 21.5 3.2% 4 1 2 1
Michael Bennett DT 6'3, 280 So. **** (6.0) 13 15.0 2.2% 5 3
J.T. Moore DE 6'3, 250 So. *** (5.6) 13 8.0 1.2% 1
Joel Hale DT 6'4, 310 So. *** (5.7) 9 3.5 0.5%
Darryl Baldwin DT 6'4, 290 So. *** (5.7) 7 2.5 0.4% 1 1
Nathan Williams DE 6'3, 249 Sr. **** (5.9) 1 2.0 0.3%
Solomon Thomas DE 6 2.0 0.3%
Steve Miller DE 6'3, 255 So. **** (5.8) 2 1.0 0.1%
Chase Farris DE 6'4, 286 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Chris Carter DT 6'4, 358 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Adolphus Washington DE 6'4, 230 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Noah Spence DE 6'4, 245 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Tommy Schutt DT 6'3, 301 Fr. **** (5.9)
Se'von Pittman DE 6'5, 245 Fr. **** (5.9)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Andrew Sweat MLB 11 53.5 7.9% 5 1 3 1
Etienne Sabino OLB 6'3, 242 Sr. **** (6.0) 13 50.5 7.5% 6.5 2 1
Ryan Shazier OLB 6'2, 212 So. **** (5.8) 13 47.0 7.0% 5 3 2
Storm Klein MLB 13 33.5 5.0% 2 1 1 1 1
Curtis Grant MLB 6'3, 225 So. ***** (6.1) 10 2.0 0.3%
Stewart Smith OLB 6'3, 230 Sr. NR
Connor Crowell MLB 6'1, 23 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Joshua Perry LB 6'4, 231 Fr. **** (5.8)
David Perkins LB 6'2, 225 Fr. **** (5.8)
Camren Williams LB 6'2, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)
Luke Roberts OLB 6'1, 226 Fr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
C.J. Barnett S 6'0, 190 Jr. **** (5.9) 13 62.0 9.2% 1 2 6
Christian Bryant S 5'10, 190 Jr. **** (5.9) 12 53.5 7.9% 8 1
Bradley Roby CB 5'11, 185 So. *** (5.6) 13 42.0 6.2% 3.5 3 6 1
Tyler Moeller S 13 37.0 5.5% 2 1 1 1
Travis Howard CB 6'1, 190 Sr. **** (5.8) 11 33.0 4.9% 0.5 2 5 2 1
Orhian Johnson S 6'2, 205 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 26.5 3.9% 3 1
Dominic Clarke CB 12 10.5 1.6% 3
Nate Ebner S 12 9.0 1.3% 1 1
Zach Domicone S 6'3, 211 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 8.5 1.3% 1
Nate Oliver S 12 5.0 0.7%
Doran Grant CB 5'11, 180 So. **** (6.0) 13 4.5 0.7%
Corey Brown S 6'1, 197 Jr. ***** (6.1) 13 3.0 0.4%
Adam Griffin CB 5'8, 180 So. ** (5.2) 1 1.0 0.1%
Armani Reeves CB 5'9, 185 Fr. **** (5.8)
Najee Murray DB 5'11, 172 Fr. **** (5.8)
De'van Bogard DB 5'11, 172 Fr. **** (5.8)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ben Buchanan 6'0, 180 Sr. 70 41.3 3 25 27 74.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Drew Basil 6'1, 212 Jr. 63 63.5 14 22.2%
Ben Buchanan 6'0, 180 Sr. 1 52 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Drew Basil 6'1, 212 Jr. 36-37 10-10 100.0% 6-9 66.7%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jordan Hall KR 5'9, 195 Sr. 26 26.3 0
Jaamal Berry KR 7 21.4 0
Jordan Hall PR 5'9, 195 Sr. 12 5.8 0
Chris Fields PR 6'0, 197 Jr. 5 17.6 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 33
Net Punting 41
Net Kickoffs 34
Touchback Pct 29
Field Goal Pct 10
Kick Returns Avg 13
Punt Returns Avg 39

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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