2012 Ohio Bobcats Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-4 | Adj. Record: 8-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 56
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at New Mexico State 44-24 W 26.9 - 26.5 W
10-Sep Gardner-Webb 30-3 W 19.9 - 15.0 W
17-Sep Marshall 44-7 W 31.3 - 25.8 W
24-Sep at Rutgers 26-38 L 36.7 - 31.6 W
1-Oct Kent State 17-10 W 26.4 - 23.0 W
8-Oct at Buffalo 37-38 L 29.9 - 31.9 L
15-Oct Ball State 20-23 L 23.9 - 25.8 L
22-Oct at Akron 37-20 W 27.9 - 29.5 L
2-Nov Temple 35-31 W 38.7 - 28.9 W
10-Nov at Central Michigan 43-28 W 27.2 - 30.0 L
16-Nov at Bowling Green 29-28 W 29.2 - 31.0 L
22-Nov Miami (Ohio) 21-14 W 31.3 - 30.4 W
2-Dec vs Northern Illinois 20-23 L 24.4 - 24.5 L
17-Dec vs Utah State 24-23 W 30.0 - 27.5 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 30.5 41 22.1 32
Adj. Points Per Game 28.8 41 27.3 53

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Penn State 37
8-Sep New Mexico State 121
15-Sep at Marshall 94
22-Sep Norfolk State NR
29-Sep at Massachusetts 116
6-Oct Buffalo 107
13-Oct Akron 123
27-Oct at Miami (Ohio) 77
1-Nov Eastern Michigan 91
7-Nov Bowling Green 64
14-Nov at Ball State 89
23-Nov at Kent State 92
Five-Year F/+ Rk 79
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 92
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* 0 / +0.8
TO Luck/Game -0.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (6, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -1.7

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 25 61 56 65
RUSHING 24 88 76 91
PASSING 43 43 39 44
Standard Downs 74 73 73
Passing Downs 56 45 67
Redzone 100 96 95
Q1 Rk 88 1st Down Rk 78
Q2 Rk 67 2nd Down Rk 90
Q3 Rk 49 3rd Down Rk 22
Q4 Rk 54
Adj. Line Yards Rk 69
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 59

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Tyler Tettleton 5'11, 206 Jr. ** (5.3) 267 415 3,302 64.3% 28 10 24 5.5% 7.2
Kyle Snyder


5 8 38 62.5% 0 1 1 11.1% 3.3
Phil Bates


4 5 142 80.0% 2 0 0 0.0% 28.4
Derrius Vick 6'1, 205 RSFr. ** (5.4)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Donte Harden RB 187 996 5.3 2.0 2 -9.0
Tyler Tettleton QB 5'11, 206 Jr. ** (5.3) 142 794 5.6 2.6 10 +9.4
Ryan Boykin RB 6'1, 218 Jr. ** (4.9) 104 430 4.1 1.3 1 -11.7
Beau Blankenship RB 5'9, 184 Jr. *** (5.5) 93 463 5.0 1.6 4 -0.8
Phil Bates QB 16 69 4.3 2.6 0 -2.4
Kyle Snyder QB


12 88 7.3 2.7 0 +0.2

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
LaVon Brazill WR-Z 105 72 1,171 68.6% 26.3% 63.8% 10.9
Riley Dunlop WR-F 60 43 586 71.7% 15.0% 56.7% 10.2
Donte Foster WR-X 6'1, 186 Jr. NR 49 29 319 59.2% 12.3% 44.9% 5.8
Donte Harden RB 37 27 267 73.0% 9.3% 64.9% 7.3
Jordan Thompson TE 6'4, 247 Sr. ** (5.2) 28 24 258 85.7% 7.0% 71.4% 10.9
Phil Bates QB/WR 21 14 189 66.7% 5.3% 42.9% 8.1
Bakari Bussey WR-F 6'2, 206 Sr. ** (5.4) 19 11 112 57.9% 4.8% 47.4% 4.2
Ryan Boykin RB 6'1, 218 Jr. ** (4.9) 16 14 92 87.5% 4.0% 62.5% 6.6
Mario Dovell WR-Z 6'0, 203 Jr. ** (5.2) 15 8 151 53.3% 3.8% 66.7% 6.8
Jerry Gross WR-X 14 8 68 57.1% 3.5% 28.6% 4.3
Matt Waters WR 6'1, 200 Jr. ** (5.4)






Chris Murray WR 5'10, 185 Fr. *** (5.6)






Mike Roberts WR/TE 6'4, 240 Fr. *** (5.5)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Joe Flading RT 38 career starts, 2011 1st All-MAC
Eric Herman RG 6'4, 313 Sr. ** (5.1) 38 career starts, 2011 2nd All-MAC
A.J. Strum LT 33 career starts
Skyler Allen C 6'3, 290 Sr. ** (4.9) 26 career starts
Jon Lechner LG 6'5, 339 Jr. *** (5.7) 23 career starts
Vince Carlotta LG 6'4, 302 Sr. ** (5.2) 6 career starts
Ryan McGrath RT 6'6, 298 Jr. NR 4 career starts
J.D. Bales C 6'5, 296 Sr. NR 1 career start
John Prior LT 6'6, 289 Jr. *** (5.6)
Sam Johnson RG 6'3, 304 Jr. ** (4.9)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 46 76 93 66
RUSHING 52 72 92 60
PASSING 52 79 87 73
Standard Downs 88 93 86
Passing Downs 73 99 60
Redzone 41 68 28
Q1 Rk 73 1st Down Rk 90
Q2 Rk 63 2nd Down Rk 66
Q3 Rk 92 3rd Down Rk 93
Q4 Rk 84
Adj. Line Yards Rk 57
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 111

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tremayne Scott DE 6'3, 247 Sr. *** (5.5) 14 44.0 5.8% 8 3.5 2
Corey Hasting NG 6'1, 259 Sr. NR 14 32.5 4.3% 6 3.5 1
Neal Huynh NG 6'3, 307 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 22.0 2.9% 4
Curtis Meyers DE 12 21.5 2.9% 4 1 1
Brian Albrecht DE


14 15.5 2.1% 1 1 1
Nic Barber DE 6'3, 233 Jr. NR 14 15.0 2.0% 4 3
Carl Jones DT 6'0, 245 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 14.5 1.9% 3 0.5
Antwan Crutcher DT 6'1, 278 So. ** (5.4) 6 9.5 1.3% 1
Wade Wells DE 6'4, 245 Jr. *** (5.5)

Ty Branz DE 6'2, 245 Jr. ** (5.4)

Trae Clark DT 6'4, 320 Fr. *** (5.6)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Noah Keller MLB 14 80.5 10.7% 8 1 1 4 3 2
Alphonso Lewis SLB 6'1, 208 Sr. ** (5.1) 14 48.0 6.4% 5 3 3
Jelani Woseley WLB 6'1, 209 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 37.0 4.9% 5 1
Keith Moore WLB 6'0, 216 Jr. NR 14 26.5 3.5% 4 2.5 2
Eric Benjamin LB 10 18.5 2.5% 2.5 0.5 2
A.J. Grady SLB 6'1, 204 So. ** (5.4) 13 4.5 0.6% 1 2
Blake Jones LB 5'11, 218 So. ** (5.1) 13 4.0 0.5% 1 1
Tim Edmond LB 6'0, 235 Jr. *** (5.5)




Jake Schany LB 6'2, 210 Fr. *** (5.5)




Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Gerald Moore FS 6'1, 201 Sr. *** (5.5) 14 66.0 8.8% 5 1 2 3
Travis Carrie CB 5'11, 203 Sr. NR 14 42.0 5.6% 1.5 4 13
Josh Kristoff SS 6'0, 192 So. ** (5.2) 13 41.0 5.4% 4 0.5 1 5 1 2
Nate Carpenter NB 5'9, 152 So. ** (5.2) 14 39.0 5.2% 2 1 2 9 1 3
Omar Leftwich^ CB 6'1, 190 Sr. *** (5.6) 14 29.5 3.9% 3 1 4 1
Xavier Hughes CB 6'1, 171 Jr. *** (5.5) 6 19.0 2.5% 1.5 1 3 4 1
Larenzo Fisher CB 5'11, 170 So. *** (5.5) 11 16.5 2.2% 1
Jamil Shaw CB 6'0, 208 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 16.0 2.1% 1 3 1
Thad Ingol SS 5'10, 190 So. ** (5.2) 11 13.0 1.7% 0.5
Mose Denton NB 6'1, 195 Sr. ** (5.2) 14 9.5 1.3% 1 1 1
Octavius Leftwich CB 6'1, 190 Sr. ** (5.2) 14 7.0 0.9% 0.5 1
Ryan Clark CB 5'9, 167 Sr. NR 14 3.5 0.5% 1 1
Sebastian Smith DB 6'3, 175 Fr. *** (5.7)

Omar Leftwich has some academic issues that evidently need to be resolved before he is allowed to play this fall.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Paul Hershey 54 40.7 6 22 25 87.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Matt Weller 6'0, 205 Sr. 84 60.4 10 11.9%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Matt Weller 6'0, 205 Sr. 48-49 19-20 95.0% 6-14 42.9%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Donte Harden KR 24 25.8 0
Ryan Clark KR 5'9, 167 Sr. 21 22.6 0
LaVon Brazill PR 25 5.5 0
Travis Carrie PR 5'11, 203 Sr. 11 12.5 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 36
Net Punting 28
Net Kickoffs 85
Touchback Pct 74
Field Goal Pct 43
Kick Returns Avg 62
Punt Returns Avg 70

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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