2012 Northwestern Wildcats Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 59
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Boston College 24-17 W 29.6 - 29.8 L
10-Sep Eastern Illinois 42-21 W 27.3 - 35.7 L
17-Sep at Army 14-21 L 25.5 - 27.1 L
1-Oct at Illinois 35-38 L 34.8 - 31.1 W
8-Oct Michigan 24-42 L 34.7 - 30.2 W
15-Oct at Iowa 31-41 L 28.8 - 33.8 L
22-Oct Penn State 24-34 L 34.6 - 32.7 W
29-Oct at Indiana 59-38 W 34.9 - 33.6 W
5-Nov at Nebraska 28-25 W 31.2 - 29.4 W
12-Nov Rice 28-6 W 27.8 - 28.9 L
19-Nov Minnesota 28-13 W 24.7 - 27.0 L
26-Nov Michigan State 17-31 L 33.0 - 29.3 W
31-Dec vs. Texas A&M 22-33 L 26.1 - 27.7 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 28.9 51 27.7 66
Adj. Points Per Game 30.2 24 30.5 109

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Syracuse 78
8-Sep Vanderbilt 36
15-Sep Boston College 42
22-Sep South Dakota NR
29-Sep Indiana 98
6-Oct at Penn State 37
13-Oct at Minnesota 96
20-Oct Nebraska 24
27-Oct Iowa 43
10-Nov at Michigan 12
17-Nov at Michigan State 19
24-Nov Illinois 51
Five-Year F/+ Rk 66
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 71
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +3 / +0.2
TO Luck/Game 1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 10 (5, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 34 26 15 42
RUSHING 45 34 27 39
PASSING 38 27 10 45
Standard Downs 22 10 27
Passing Downs 48 25 59
Redzone 19 5 41
Q1 Rk 29 1st Down Rk 25
Q2 Rk 21 2nd Down Rk 24
Q3 Rk 65 3rd Down Rk 54
Q4 Rk 12
Adj. Line Yards Rk 28
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 100

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Dan Persa 218 297 2,376 73.4% 17 7 31 9.5% 6.6
Kain Colter 6'0, 190 Jr. *** (5.7) 55 82 673 67.1% 6 1 9 9.9% 6.6
Trevor Siemian 6'3, 210 So. *** (5.6) 16 26 256 61.5% 3 1 2 7.1% 8.9
Zack Oliver 6'4, 235 RSFr. *** (5.6)








P.J. Carollo 6'1, 180 RSFr. NR








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Kain Colter QB 6'0, 190 Jr. *** (5.7) 126 726 5.8 2.3 9 +16.1
Jacob Schmidt RB 107 471 4.4 1.0 6 -1.7
Treyvon Green RB 5'10, 215 So. ** (5.3) 97 362 3.7 0.5 4 -4.9
Adonis Smith RB 66 266 4.0 0.8 3 -2.5
Dan Persa QB 48 231 4.8 1.4 1 +0.4
Mike Trumpy RB 6'1, 210 Jr. *** (5.6) 35 182 5.2 1.8 1 +1.7
Tyris Jones RB 6'0, 220 Sr. NR 19 69 3.6 0.5 0 -2.5
Venric Mark RB 5'8, 175 Jr. *** (5.6) 15 104 6.9 2.5 1 +3.5
Tim Hanrahan RB 6'0, 195 So. NR





Malin Jones RB 6'2, 190 Fr. *** (5.7)




Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Jeremy Ebert WR-Y 105 75 1,055 71.4% 26.6% 64.8% 10.4
Kain Colter QB 6'0, 190 Jr. *** (5.7) 60 43 453 71.7% 15.2% 65.0% 7.9
Drake Dunsmore TE 55 45 522 81.8% 14.0% 65.5% 10.9
Demetrius Fields WR-Y 6'0, 205 Sr. ** (5.2) 46 32 403 69.6% 11.7% 67.4% 9.1
Jacob Schmidt RB 31 24 230 77.4% 7.9% 61.3% 8.1
Rashad Lawrence WR-Z 6'2, 195 Jr. *** (5.7) 26 19 203 73.1% 6.6% 61.5% 8.4
Christian Jones WR-H 6'3, 225 So. *** (5.7) 25 16 195 64.0% 6.3% 68.0% 6.6
Charles Brown WR-H 13 8 101 61.5% 3.3% 61.5% 6.8
Treyvon Green RB 5'10, 215 So. ** (5.3) 11 10 39 90.9% 2.8% 81.8% 3.5
Adonis Smith RB 7 7 31 100.0% 1.8% 71.4% 5.9
Mike Jensen WR-Y 6'0, 180 Jr. NR 4 2 23 50.0% 1.0% 50.0% 5.8
Tim Riley TE 6'3, 220 Jr. ** (5.0) 1 1 2 100.0% 0.3% 100.0% 2.0
Kyle Prater^ WR 6'5, 215 Jr. ***** (6.1) 1 1 6 100.0% 0.2% 100.0% 6.0
Evan Watkins TE 6'6, 245 Jr. *** (5.7)
Tony Jones WR-X 6'0, 185 So. *** (5.5)
Cameron Dickerson WR-Z 6'3, 200 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Pierre Youngblood-Ary WR-X 6'3, 185 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Cermak Bland WR-H 5'11, 170 RSFr. NR

^ Prater is a USC transfer and has not yet found out whether he will be eligible in 2012.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Al Netter LT 52 career starts
Ben Burkett RG 52 career starts
Brian Mulroe LG 6'4, 295 Sr. *** (5.7) 27 career starts
Patrick Ward RT 6'7, 310 Sr. **** (5.8) 26 career starts
Doug Bartels LG 25 career starts
Brandon Vitabile C 6'3, 300 So. *** (5.7) 13 career starts
Neal Deiters RG 6'8, 315 Sr. ** (5.2) 7 career starts
Paul Jorgensen LT 6'6, 295 Sr. *** (5.6)
Colin Armstrong C
Chuck Porcelli RT 6'7, 315 Sr. *** (5.5)
Jack Konopka RG 6'5, 285 So. *** (5.6)
Hayden Baker LG 6'2, 280 So. NR
Matt Frazier C 6'4, 290 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Shane Mertz RT 6'8, 295 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Geoff Mogus LG 6'5, 280 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 81 109 105 106
RUSHING 84 74 70 80
PASSING 71 116 116 112
Standard Downs 105 92 107
Passing Downs 106 117 94
Redzone 70 55 77
Q1 Rk 55 1st Down Rk 104
Q2 Rk 107 2nd Down Rk 85
Q3 Rk 101 3rd Down Rk 118
Q4 Rk 118
Adj. Line Yards Rk 41
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 108

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Vince Browne DE 13 28.0 3.9% 3.5 3
Jack DiNardo DT 11 25.0 3.5% 6.5 3 2
Tyler Scott DE 6'4, 265 So. ** (5.4) 11 23.5 3.3% 3 1 1 2 3
Quentin Williams DE 6'4, 260 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 18.5 2.6% 5.5 3
Kevin Watt DE 13 17.5 2.5% 1.5 0.5
Will Hampton DT 6'3, 285 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 12.0 1.7% 1
Niko Mafuli DT 12 11.0 1.5% 2.5 1
Brian Arnfelt DT 6'5, 300 Sr. ** (5.1) 5 4.0 0.6% 0.5
Chance Carter DT 6'3, 270 So. *** (5.6) 9 1.0 0.1%
Davon Custis DE 6'3, 225 Sr. *** (5.7)
Anthony Battle DE 6'2, 240 Jr. *** (5.5)
Sean McEvilly DT 6'5, 275 So. *** (5.5)
Max Chapman DE 6'3, 230 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Deonte Gibson DE 6'3, 240 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Greg Kuhar DT 6'3, 265 Fr. **** (5.8)
Dean Lowry DE 6'5, 225 Fr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
David Nwabuisi MIKE 6'1, 240 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 61.5 8.7% 8.5 1 3 2 1
Bryce McNaul WILL 12 54.5 7.7% 6 0.5 1 1
Damien Proby MIKE 6'0, 235 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 47.0 6.6% 3 1 1
Chi Chi Ariguzo SAM 6'3, 220 So. *** (5.6) 11 23.0 3.2% 1.5 1
Collin Ellis SAM 6'2, 220 So. *** (5.5) 10 20.5 2.9% 2.5 1
Ben Johnson SAM 13 17.0 2.4% 2 1 4 1
Roderick Goodlow SAM 6'2, 220 Sr. *** (5.6)
Doug Diedrick WILL 5'10, 215 RSFr. NR
Ifeadi Odenigbo LB 6'3, 220 Fr. **** (5.9)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ibraheim Campbell S 5'11, 205 So. *** (5.6) 13 77.0 10.8% 3.5 2 4 1
Brian Peters S 13 70.5 9.9% 4 1 5 4 2 1
Jordan Mabin CB 12 52.5 7.4% 1 5
Jeravin Matthews CB 13 50.5 7.1% 0.5 1 2 1 1
Mike Bolden CB 11 10.5 1.5% 0.5 1
Daniel Jones CB 5'11, 170 So. ** (5.4) 12 10.0 1.4%
Demetrius Dugar CB 5'11, 175 Sr. ** (5.0) 9 9.0 1.3% 1 1
Hunter Bates S 5'10, 180 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 8.0 1.1%
David Arnold S 5 7.0 1.0% 1
Ricky Weina CB 11 6.0 0.8% 1
Jared Carpenter S 6'0, 205 Sr. ** (5.0) 8 5.0 0.7% 1
C.J. Bryant CB 5'11, 175 So. *** (5.5) 8 4.5 0.6%
Davion Fleming S 5'10, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 1.5 0.2%
Joe Cannon CB 6'0, 175 So. NR
Nick VanHoose CB 6'0, 185 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Matt Carpenter S 6'2, 200 RSFr. NR
Traveon Henry DB 6'1, 200 Fr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Brandon Williams 6'2, 185 Jr. 52 40.8 9 12 14 50.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Steve Flaherty 6'1, 180 Sr. 66 61.2 6 9.1%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Jeff Budzien 5'11, 165 So. 50-50 4-5 80.0% 2-5 40.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Venric Mark KR 5'8, 175 Jr. 40 22.9 0
Jacob Schmidt KR 6 16.8 0
Venric Mark PR 5'8, 175 Jr. 8 15.9 0

Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 69
Net Punting 90
Net Kickoffs 59
Touchback Pct 86
Field Goal Pct 97
Kick Returns Avg 68
Punt Returns Avg 2

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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