2012 Northern Illinois Huskies Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-3 | Adj. Record: 9-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 50
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Army 49-26 W 31.9 - 29.1 W
10-Sep at Kansas 42-45 L 29.3 - 32.9 L
17-Sep vs Wisconsin 7-49 L 25.2 - 30.1 L
24-Sep Cal Poly 47-30 W 33.4 - 32.9 W
1-Oct at Central Michigan 41-48 L 27.3 - 33.7 L
8-Oct Kent State 40-10 W 31.8 - 5.3 W
15-Oct Western Michigan 51-22 W 35.1 - 20.1 W
22-Oct at Buffalo 31-30 W 24.8 - 31.5 L
1-Nov at Toledo 63-60 W 40.0 - 31.1 W
8-Nov at Bowling Green 45-14 W 35.8 - 26.4 W
15-Nov Ball State 41-38 W 29.9 - 29.0 W
25-Nov Eastern Michigan 18-12 W 23.0 - 24.4 L
2-Dec vs Ohio 23-20 W 28.4 - 25.1 W
8-Jan vs Arkansas State 38-20 W 28.7 - 23.5 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 38.3 12 30.3 85
Adj. Points Per Game 30.3 23 26.8 47

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep vs Iowa 43
8-Sep UT-Martin NR
15-Sep at Army 95
22-Sep Kansas 105
29-Sep Central Michigan 84
6-Oct at Ball State 89
13-Oct Buffalo 107
20-Oct at Akron 123
27-Oct at Western Michigan 69
3-Nov Massachusetts 116
14-Nov Toledo 71
23-Nov at Eastern Michigan 91
Five-Year F/+ Rk 69
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 86
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +6 / +8.8
TO Luck/Game -1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (3, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -1.3

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 11 39 51 38
RUSHING 12 28 33 26
PASSING 51 52 60 48
Standard Downs 37 46 33
Passing Downs 52 80 41
Redzone 71 60 77
Q1 Rk 82 1st Down Rk 31
Q2 Rk 36 2nd Down Rk 68
Q3 Rk 28 3rd Down Rk 30
Q4 Rk 29
Adj. Line Yards Rk 36
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 8

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Chandler Harnish 237 384 3,216 61.7% 28 6 11 2.8% 7.9
Jordan Lynch 6'1, 219 Jr. ** (5.4) 15 20 166 75.0% 1 0 1 4.8% 7.6
Matt McIntosh 6'1, 197 RSFr. ** (5.3)






Matt Williams 6'3, 190 Fr. *** (5.5)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Jasmin Hopkins TB 188 963 5.1 2.0 15 +12.1
Chandler Harnish QB 183 1,462 8.0 3.9 11 +35.4
Akeem Daniels TB 5'7, 183 Jr. ** (5.2) 55 296 5.4 1.8 3 +4.2
Jordan Lynch QB 6'1, 219 Jr. ** (5.4) 44 253 5.8 2.7 3 +4.5
Jamal Womble TB 5'11, 247 Sr. *** (5.6) 37 124 3.4 0.7 1 -7.7
Leighton Settle TB 5'10, 195 Jr. ** (5.2) 16 84 5.3 3.4 0 -1.4
Perez Ashford WR-Z 5'10, 185 Sr. ** (5.4) 10 85 8.5 3.7 0 +1.4
Perez Ford RB 6'2, 225 Fr. *** (5.5)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Martel Moore WR-X 6'2, 182 Sr. ** (5.2) 75 48 752 64.0% 19.2% 64.0% 9.2
Nathan Palmer WR-F 70 47 695 67.1% 17.9% 55.7% 9.7
Perez Ashford WR-Z 5'10, 184 Sr. ** (5.4) 62 47 530 75.8% 15.9% 69.4% 8.9
Da'Ron Brown WR-Y 6'1, 192 So. *** (5.5) 46 23 317 50.0% 11.8% 54.3% 4.3
Willie Clark WR-X 29 18 292 62.1% 7.4% 62.1% 8.9
Anthony Johnson WR 6'3, 190 Jr. ** (5.2) 26 13 174 50.0% 6.6% 65.4% 3.6
Akeem Daniels TB 5'7, 183 Jr. ** (5.2) 19 15 252 78.9% 4.9% 42.1% 17.1
Jamison Wells WR-F 5'11, 187 Jr. NR 19 14 112 73.7% 4.9% 47.4% 6.3
Jasmin Hopkins TB 18 12 54 66.7% 4.6% 27.8% 2.9
Jason Schepler (2010^) TE 6'2, 274 Sr. NR 12 8 93 66.7% 3.8% 75.0% 7.7
Luke Eakes FB 6'4, 250 So. ** (5.2) 11 6 49 54.5% 2.8% 72.7% 3.8
Charlie Miller WR 5'11, 185 Fr. *** (5.6)






^ Schepler missed the 2010 season with injury.

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Trevor Olson LT 54 career starts, 2011 1st All-MAC
Scott Wedige C 28 career starts, 2011 1st All-MAC
Joe Pawlak RG 41 career starts
Keith Otis RT 28 career starts
Logan Pegram LG 6'3, 310 Sr. ** (5.3) 22 career starts
Jared Volk LG 6'3, 307 Jr. ** (5.3) 2 career starts
Tyler Pitt LT 6'6, 292 So. ** (5.2)
Mike Gegner C 6'3, 283 So. ** (5.2)
Matt Battaglia RG 6'4, 280 Sr. ** (5.2)
Ryan Brown RT 6'7, 271 So. ** (5.4)
Matt Krempel OL 6'5, 307 Jr. ** (5.2)
Tyler Loos OL 6'5, 282 So. ** (5.3)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 88 58 42 65
RUSHING 72 64 65 61
PASSING 89 56 34 68
Standard Downs 72 58 81
Passing Downs 59 51 63
Redzone 40 42 45
Q1 Rk 66 1st Down Rk 85
Q2 Rk 59 2nd Down Rk 46
Q3 Rk 60 3rd Down Rk 37
Q4 Rk 65
Adj. Line Yards Rk 50
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 54

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Sean Progar DE 6'3, 255 Sr. NR 13 37.0 4.4% 11 5.5 1 1
Ron Newcomb DT 13 36.0 4.3% 12.5 4.5 4 1 1
Alan Baxter DE 6'0, 252 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 33.5 4.0% 12.5 5.5 1 1 1
Nabal Jefferson NG 5'11, 281 Sr. ** (5.1) 14 31.5 3.7% 5 1 1
Kyle Jenkins DE 14 20.0 2.4% 4.5 1.5 2 1
Jason Meehan DE 6'2, 230 So. *** (5.5) 14 19.0 2.3% 3 0.5 2
Anthony Wells DT 6'3, 271 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 13.0 1.5% 5 2 1
Joe Windsor DE 6'1, 230 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 12.5 1.5% 2 1
Stephen O'Neal DE 6'4, 236 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 9.5 1.1% 4.5 3 2
Frank Boenzi NG 6'3, 310 So. *** (5.5) 12 7.5 0.9% 3 1 1
Ken Bishop DT 6'2, 300 Jr. *** (5.5)
Mario Jones DT 6'3, 275 Fr. *** (5.5)
Michael Ippolito DE 6'4, 230 Fr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Pat Schiller LB 14 78.5 9.3% 10 2 6
Devon Butler (2010^) LB 5'10, 232 Jr. ** (5.3) 14 60.5 8.1% 7.5 4.5 1 5 1
Tyrone Clark (2010^^) WLB 5'10, 219 Sr. ** (4.9) 14 57.5 7.7% 4 1.5 4 1
Jordan Delegal OLB 14 64.0 7.6% 4.5 0.5 5
Jamaal Bass OLB 6'0, 220 So. *** (5.6) 11 42.5 5.0% 5.5 1
Michael Santacaterina OLB 6'0, 215 So. ** (5.2) 11 18.5 2.2% 1.5 0.5 1 1
Victor Jacques MLB 6'1, 220 Sr. NR 14 13.5 1.6% 0.5
Gervaise Porter LB 6'0, 210 Jr. NR 12 9.0 1.1% 1
Cameron Stingily LB 6'1, 244 So. *** (5.5)

Mike Cotton LB 6'3, 210 Fr. *** (5.6)

^ Butler missed the 2011 season recovering from a gunshot wound suffered last April.
^^ Clark missed the 2010 season with injury.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jimmie Ward FS 6'0, 180 Jr. ** (5.4) 14 74.0 8.8% 2.5 1 1 4 1
Rashaan Melvin CB 6'2, 190 Sr. NR 13 66.0 7.8% 1 3 9
Jhony Faustin CB 5'10, 165 Jr. ** (5.2) 14 58.5 6.9% 2 5
Dechane Durante SS 6'2, 195 So. *** (5.5) 14 45.5 5.4% 4 0.5 3 4
Demetrius Stone FS 5'11, 199 Sr. ** (5.2) 14 45.0 5.3% 1 5 1
Tommy Davis SS 14 27.5 3.3% 0.5
Sean Evans CB 5'11, 180 Jr. ** (4.9) 13 20.5 2.4% 1 5
Dominique Ware CB 6'0, 180 Jr. ** (5.1) 14 15.0 1.8% 2
Marckie Hayes CB 5'8, 180 So. ** (5.2) 14 10.5 1.2% 1

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ryan Neir 6'3, 206 Sr. 62 35.7 0 36 19 88.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Tyler Wedel 6'0, 180 So. 86 60.7 6 7.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Mathew Sims 5'11, 180 Jr. 64-66 17-21 81.0% 3-7 42.9%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Tommylee Lewis KR 5'8, 170 So. 30 25.2 2
Tommy Davis KR 9 16.1 0
Tommy Davis PR 9 5.9 0
Perez Ashford PR 5'10, 184 Sr. 5 6.2 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 71
Net Punting 81
Net Kickoffs 101
Touchback Pct 100
Field Goal Pct 52
Kick Returns Avg 100
Punt Returns Avg 79

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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