2012 North Carolina Tar Heels Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 49
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep James Madison 42-10 W 33.7 - 25.7 W
10-Sep Rutgers 24-22 W 30.7 - 24.1 W
17-Sep Virginia 28-17 W 33.0 - 28.8 W
24-Sep at Georgia Tech 28-35 L 29.5 - 29.8 L
1-Oct at East Carolina 35-20 W 33.5 - 30.4 W
8-Oct Louisville 14-7 W 27.0 - 25.5 W
15-Oct Miami 24-30 L 31.4 - 26.9 W
22-Oct at Clemson 38-59 L 28.4 - 29.3 L
29-Oct Wake Forest 49-24 W 34.4 - 29.0 W
5-Nov at N.C. State 0-13 L 17.1 - 23.3 L
17-Nov at Virginia Tech 21-24 L 34.6 - 27.0 W
26-Nov Duke 37-21 W 28.3 - 28.3 L
26-Dec vs. Missouri 24-41 L 27.5 - 31.0 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 28.0 56 24.8 56
Adj. Points Per Game 29.9 27 27.6 57

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Elon NR
8-Sep at Wake Forest 81
15-Sep at Louisville 41
22-Sep East Carolina 78
29-Sep Idaho 116
6-Oct Virginia Tech 18
13-Oct at Miami 36
20-Oct at Duke 73
27-Oct N.C. State 53
10-Nov Georgia Tech 30
15-Nov at Virginia 52
24-Nov Maryland 72
Five-Year F/+ Rk 38
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 23
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -2 / -1.1
TO Luck/Game -0.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (8, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.7

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 53 37 42 33
RUSHING 76 72 85 69
PASSING 37 20 22 23
Standard Downs 36 38 34
Passing Downs 14 26 16
Redzone 4 20 2
Q1 Rk 40 1st Down Rk 21
Q2 Rk 77 2nd Down Rk 52
Q3 Rk 29 3rd Down Rk 23
Q4 Rk 3
Adj. Line Yards Rk 74
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 78

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Bryn Renner 6'3, 215 Jr. **** (5.9) 239 350 3,086 68.3% 26 13 26 6.9% 7.7
Braden Hanson


9 16 185 56.3% 0 1 0 0.0% 11.6
Marquise Williams 6'2, 220 RSFr. **** (5.8)







James Summers 6'3, 205 Fr. **** (5.8)







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Giovani Bernard RB 5'10, 205 So. **** (5.8) 238 1,261 5.3 2.2 13 +11.3
Ryan Houston RB 85 325 3.8 1.0 7 -0.7
A.J. Blue RB 6'2, 230 Jr. **** (5.8) 33 138 4.2 1.0 1 -0.3
Bryn Renner QB 6'3, 215 Jr. **** (5.9) 31 111 3.6 0.8 1 -5.3
Romar Morris RB 5'10, 180 RSFr. *** (5.6)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Dwight Jones WR 111 85 1,196 76.6% 32.5% 57.7% 11.7
Erik Highsmith WR 6'3, 190 Sr. ** (5.1) 76 51 725 67.1% 22.2% 61.8% 9.0
Giovani Bernard RB 5'10, 205 So. **** (5.8) 53 45 374 84.9% 15.5% 58.5% 8.2
Jheranie Boyd WR 6'2, 190 Sr. **** (6.0) 24 14 281 58.3% 7.0% 62.5% 10.2
Nelson Hurst TE


17 11 160 64.7% 5.0% 52.9% 7.7
Eric Ebron TE 6'4, 230 So. *** (5.7) 17 10 207 58.8% 5.0% 47.1% 10.1
Christian Wilson TE 13 10 107 76.9% 3.8% 53.8% 8.8
Curtis Byrd FB 8 6 38 75.0% 2.3% 75.0% 4.2
Ryan Houston RB 6 5 60 83.3% 1.8% 66.7% 10.7
Jack Tabb TE 6'3, 240 So. *** (5.6) 5 2 14 40.0% 1.5% 80.0% 1.1
Reggie Wilkins WR 5'10, 175 So. *** (5.7) 4 4 53 100.0% 1.2% 100.0% 13.3
T.J. Thorpe WR 6'0, 190 So. **** (5.8) 2 2 70 100.0% 0.6% 0.0% 35.0
Todd Harrelson WR 6'2, 195 Sr. *** (5.7)
Sean Tapley WR 6'1, 185 So. *** (5.7)
Quinshad Davis WR 6'3, 180 Fr. **** (5.8)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Jonathan Cooper LG 6'3, 310 Sr. *** (5.7) 35 career starts
Cam Holland C 31 career starts
James Hurst LT 6'7, 310 Jr. **** (6.0) 25 career starts
Travis Bond RG 6'7, 340 Sr. *** (5.6) 17 career starts
Brennan Williams RT 6'7, 315 Sr. **** (5.9) 14 career starts
Russell Bodine C 6'4, 305 So. *** (5.7) 2 career starts
Carl Gaskins T 1 career start
Peyton Jenest LG 6'5, 300 Sr. NR
David Collins RG 6'8, 310 Jr. *** (5.7)
Nick Appel RT 6'6, 305 So. *** (5.5)
Kiaro Holts LT 6'4, 285 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Landon Turner RG 6'4, 320 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Jarrod James C 6'3, 275 RSFr. **** (5.8)
J.J. Patterson OL 6'4, 310 Fr. **** (5.8)
Caleb Peterson OL 6'4, 295 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 49 45 43 49
RUSHING 27 42 43 38
PASSING 78 53 52 54
Standard Downs 44 45 39
Passing Downs 61 57 64
Redzone 24 9 39
Q1 Rk 36 1st Down Rk 30
Q2 Rk 60 2nd Down Rk 55
Q3 Rk 75 3rd Down Rk 79
Q4 Rk 35
Adj. Line Yards Rk 47
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 70

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Quinton Coples DE 13 42.0 5.7% 15 7.5 2 3 1
Sylvester Williams DT 6'3, 320 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 38.5 5.3% 7 2.5 1 3 1 1
Tydreke Powell DT 13 32.0 4.4% 4.5 1 1 2 1 1
Kareem Martin DE 6'6, 260 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 30.0 4.1% 7 4 6 1
Donte Paige-Moss DE 13 22.0 3.0% 4 2 2
Jordan Nix DT 13 13.0 1.8% 3 0.5
Dion Guy BAN 6'4, 235 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 8.5 1.2%
Tim Jackson DE 6'5, 260 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 8.5 1.2%
Shawn Underwood DT 6'1, 300 So. *** (5.5) 4 4.0 0.5% 1 1
Norkeithus Otis BAN 6'1, 210 So. **** (5.8) 7 3.0 0.4% 0.5
Ethan Farmer DT 6'3, 280 So. *** (5.7) 5 2.5 0.3%
Curtis Campbell BAN 6'2, 225 Jr. ** (5.0) 11 2.0 0.3% 1
Devonte Brown DT 6'3, 295 So. **** (5.8) 1 0.5 0.1%
Junior Gnonkonde DE 6'5, 225 Fr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Zach Brown LB 13 83.5 11.4% 13.5 5.5 3 4 3 1
Kevin Reddick MLB 6'3, 240 Sr. **** (5.9) 12 55.0 7.5% 6 1 4 1
Darius Lipford LB 6'3, 230 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 29.5 4.0% 1.5 4
Ebele Okakpu LB 5 11.5 1.6% 3 1
Fabby Desir MLB 6'0, 225 Sr. ** (5.2) 10 10.5 1.4% 1
Travis Hughes WLB 6'2, 225 So. **** (5.8) 13 8.5 1.2% 0.5
Tommy Heffernan WLB 6'1, 215 So. NR 5 5.0 0.7% 1
P.J. Clyburn WLB 6'2, 215 So. *** (5.7) 3 2.0 0.3%
Keeon Virgile MLB 6'2, 230 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Phillip Williamson LB 6'3, 208 Fr. *** (5.7)
Shakeel Rashad LB 6'2, 213 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tre Boston SS 6'1, 190 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 59.0 8.0% 1.5 3 2 1 2
Charles Brown CB 12 45.0 6.1% 6 2 7
Gene Robinson RAM 5'11, 190 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 37.5 5.1% 4 1 2 2
Tim Scott CB 5'11, 180 So. *** (5.7) 13 36.0 4.9% 2 1 6
Jonathan Smith S 10 34.0 4.6% 1
Matt Merletti S 8 30.0 4.1% 1 2 1 2
Pete Mangum RAM 5'10, 185 Sr. NR 13 19.0 2.6% 1
Jabari Price CB 6'0, 190 Jr. *** (5.6) 8 13.5 1.8% 1 2
Brian Gupton S 13 6.0 0.8%
Terry Shankle CB 5'11, 180 Jr. **** (5.8) 5 4.5 0.6%
Todd Harrelson CB 6'2, 195 Sr. *** (5.7) 7 2.5 0.3% 1
D.J. Bunn FS


6 2.5 0.3%
Alex Dixon CB 6'0, 180 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Darien Rankin SS 5'11, 185 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Kameron Jackson CB 5'11, 180 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Sam Smiley FS 5'11, 175 RSFr. ** (5.3)
Jeff Schoettmer RAM 6'1, 205 RSFr. NR
Clinton Heaven DB 6'0, 192 Fr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Thomas Hibbard 5'10, 185 So. 51 39.2 3 14 16 58.8%
C.J. Feagles 8 34.9 0 2 1 37.5%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Trase Jones 49 60.2 0 0.0%
Thomas Moore 5'10, 190 So. 15 60.1 1 6.7%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Thomas Moore 5'10, 190 So. 38-38 5-7 71.4% 1-3 33.3%
Casey Barth 5'11, 185 Sr. 11-11 0-0 N/A 1-1 100.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
T.J. Thorpe KR 6'0, 190 So. 36 26.7 1
Charles Brown KR 9 19.9 0
Charles Brown PR 12 2.5 0
Todd Harrelson PR 6'2, 195 Sr. 5 7.8 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 89
Net Punting 76
Net Kickoffs 86
Touchback Pct 115
Field Goal Pct 86
Kick Returns Avg 33
Punt Returns Avg 108

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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