2012 New Mexico Lobos Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 120
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Colorado State 10-14 L 21.6 - 27.7 L
10-Sep at Arkansas 3-52 L 25.3 - 32.3 L
17-Sep Texas Tech 13-59 L 18.7 - 33.6 L
24-Sep Sam Houston State 45-48 L 25.6 - 34.5 L
1-Oct New Mexico State 28-42 L 28.3 - 32.9 L
15-Oct at Nevada 7-49 L 23.6 - 32.5 L
22-Oct at TCU 0-69 L 14.7 - 33.0 L
29-Oct Air Force 0-42 L 19.8 - 31.1 L
5-Nov at San Diego State 7-35 L 18.6 - 31.8 L
12-Nov UNLV 21-14 W 25.2 - 31.5 L
19-Nov at Wyoming 10-31 L 21.7 - 31.2 L
3-Dec at Boise State 0-45 L 19.6 - 29.8 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 12.0 120 41.7 119
Adj. Points Per Game 21.9 117 31.8 118

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Southern NR
8-Sep at Texas 10
15-Sep at Texas Tech 38
22-Sep at New Mexico State 121
29-Sep Boise State 39
6-Oct Texas State 122
13-Oct at Hawaii 93
20-Oct at Air Force 103
27-Oct Fresno State 81
3-Nov at UNLV 119
10-Nov Wyoming 108
17-Nov Nevada 63
24-Nov at Colorado State 102
Five-Year F/+ Rk 118
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 107
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -8 / -2.7
TO Luck/Game -2.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (8, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** +12.9

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 113 118 116 119
RUSHING 103 119 113 119
PASSING 92 113 102 115
Standard Downs 115 107 119
Passing Downs 115 117 115
Redzone 116 111 119
Q1 Rk 119 1st Down Rk 113
Q2 Rk 105 2nd Down Rk 116
Q3 Rk 118 3rd Down Rk 116
Q4 Rk 98
Adj. Line Yards Rk 99
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 103

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
B.R. Holbrook 6'3, 195 Sr. ** (5.1) 141 236 1,490 59.7% 4 7 17 6.7% 5.5
Tarean Austin


60 117 706 51.3% 3 1 14 10.7% 4.9
David Vega 6'1, 200 Jr. (NR)






Cole Gautsche 6'4, 211 Fr. *** (5.6)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Crusoe Gongbay TB 108 500 4.6 1.3 5 -5.3
Demarcus Rogers TB 5'11, 185 Jr. ** (4.9) 81 242 3.0 0.6 3 -12.4
James Wright TB 61 220 3.6 0.7 0 -14.9
Tarean Austin QB 45 253 5.6 2.2 1 -0.3
B.R. Holbrook QB 6'3, 195 Sr. ** (5.1) 43 185 4.3 1.3 1 -5.6
Lamaar Thomas WR 6'0, 185 Sr. **** (6.0) 10 50 5.0 1.5 0 -1.1
Kasey Carrier RB 5'9, 180 Jr. ** (5.2)





Chase Clayton RB 6'3, 205 So. ** (5.2)





Jhurell Pressley RB 5'11, 200 RSFr. NR





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Deon Long WR-X 74 47 809 63.5% 22.1% 63.5% 10.1
Ty Kirk WR-Z 6'2, 180 Sr. ** (5.1) 61 47 376 77.0% 18.2% 55.7% 6.6
Lucas Reed TE 6'6, 232 Sr. ** 46 22 241 47.8% 13.7% 45.7% 2.7
Quintell Solomon WR-Z 6'3, 185 Sr. ** (4.9) 34 18 184 52.9% 10.1% 64.7% 3.2
Lamaar Thomas WR 6'0, 185 Sr. **** (6.0) 22 9 156 40.9% 6.6% 45.5% 2.6
James Wright TB 17 13 88 76.5% 5.1% 70.6% 4.7
Crusoe Gongbay TB 15 11 83 73.3% 4.5% 40.0% 4.6
Martize Barr WR-A 15 8 79 53.3% 4.5% 40.0% 0.2
Demarcus Rogers TB 5'11, 185 Jr. ** (4.9) 14 9 36 64.3% 4.2% 57.1% 2.3
Michael Scarlett WR 14 6 55 42.9% 4.2% 64.3% 1.3
Donnie Duncan WR 5'11, 183 So. *** (5.6) 7 2 9 28.6% 2.1% 42.9% -0.6
Andrew Aho TE 6'3, 225 Jr. NR 6 2 31 33.3% 1.8% 83.3% 1.0
Jeric Magnant WR 6'0, 165 So. NR 1 1 6 100.0% 0.3% 100.0% 6.0
Daniel Adams WR 6'2, 207 So. *** (5.7)






SaQwan Edwards WR 6'1, 170 So. ** (5.2)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Dillon Farrell RT 6'5, 290 Jr. ** (5.1) 21 career starts
Mike Muniz RG 13 career starts
Darryl Johnson RT 6'4, 305 Jr. ** (4.9) 13 career starts
Korian Chambers LT 6'6, 322 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 career starts
Lamar Bratton C 6'2, 275 So. ** (5.4) 12 career starts
Calvin McDowney LG 6'3, 340 Jr. NR 8 career starts
Jon Washington LG 3 career starts
Jamaal Price OL 6'6, 338 So. ** (5.4) 2 career starts
Larry Mazyck LT
Jamal Prince RG
Bryan Oldenkamp OL 6'4, 290 So. ** (5.4)
Garrett Adcock OL 6'2, 275 Fr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 118 117 118 114
RUSHING 119 116 117 113
PASSING 86 117 118 115
Standard Downs 112 114 106
Passing Downs 113 119 100
Redzone 112 116 103
Q1 Rk 119 1st Down Rk 107
Q2 Rk 112 2nd Down Rk 115
Q3 Rk 94 3rd Down Rk 120
Q4 Rk 108
Adj. Line Yards Rk 116
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 114

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jaymar Latchison DE 12 36.5 5.0% 6.5 2 1 1
Jake Carr DE 6'3, 248 Sr. ** (5.0) 12 20.5 2.8% 5 1
Jacori Greer DE 6'3, 240 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 18.5 2.5%
Ugo Uzodinma DT 6'4, 280 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 17.5 2.4% 3.5 1 1
Reggie Ellis NT 6'2, 285 Sr. **** (5.8) 12 11.5 1.6% 4 1 1 1
Brett Kennedy DT 10 8.0 1.1%
Rod Davis NT 6'0, 300 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 7.0 1.0%
Gerron Boone DT 6'3, 275 Fr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Carmen Messina MLB 12 105.0 14.4% 12.5 3 1 3 1
Dallas Bollema WLB 6'2, 225 Jr. ** (5.3) 10 51.5 7.1% 1 2 1
Spencer Merritt MLB 6'2, 220 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 45.0 6.2% 0.5 2
Joseph Harris^ OLB 6'2, 222 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 42.5 5.8% 4 1 1 4 1
Joe Stoner LB 5'10, 224 Sr. ** (4.9) 8 14.5 2.0% 1 1
David Orvick LB 6'3, 225 Jr. ** (5.3)
Rashad Rainey LB 6'3, 210 Jr. ** (5.3)
Richard Winston LB 6'4, 225 Fr. ** (5.3)

^ Harris was a starting defensive end last year and moves to OLB in Bob Davie's 3-4 alignment.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Bubba Forrest WOLF 11 64.5 8.8% 2 2 1 1
Anthony Hooks CB 12 51.0 7.0% 3.5 1 0 3
Destry Berry CB 5'9, 177 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 41.0 5.6% 4 5 1
DeShawn Mills (2010^) CB 5'10, 176 Sr. NR 12 36.0 5.1% 2 3
Freddy Young FS 6'1, 205 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 27.0 3.7% 0.5 1
Zach Dancel FS 9 24.5 3.4% 1 1
Dante Caro LOBO 6'0, 190 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 21.5 2.9% 1 1 2 1
Martize Barr LOBO 10 17.5 2.4% 2 2
Deshon Marman DB 3 14.5 2.0% 0.5
Devonta Tabannah CB 5'10, 161 So. ** (5.4) 6 11.0 1.5% 1 1
A.J. Butler WOLF 6'1, 195 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 11.0 1.5%
Meiko Locksley LOBO 8 9.0 1.2% 1
Jamal Merritt DB 6'0, 175 So. *** (5.5) 12 8.5 1.2% 1 1
Zoey Williams DB 5'10, 190 So. *** (5.5) 6 6.5 0.9% 0.5 2
Tim Foley CB 5'7, 169 So. NR
Cranston Jones DB 5'9, 170 Fr. *** (5.5)
Ryan Santos DB 5'10, 175 Fr. *** (5.5)

^ Mills played just four games in 2011 because of various injuries.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ben Skaer 6'0, 185 Jr. 73 39.7 3 13 19 43.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Justus Adams 6'4, 180 Jr. 33 62.2 4 12.1%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
James Aho 18-18 3-6 50.0% 3-6 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Deon Long KR 18 23.6 1
Donnie Duncan KR 5'11, 183 So. 11 23.0 0
Lamaar Thomas KR 6'0, 185 Sr. 11 22.8 0
Deon Long PR 3 3.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 120
Net Punting 112
Net Kickoffs 113
Touchback Pct 73
Field Goal Pct 112
Kick Returns Avg 70
Punt Returns Avg 120

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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