2012 Navy Midshipmen Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 81
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Delaware 40-17 W 28.0 - 31.8 L
10-Sep at Western Kentucky 40-14 W 33.7 - 26.2 W
17-Sep at South Carolina 21-24 L 37.5 - 31.8 W
1-Oct Air Force 34-35 L 25.0 - 30.6 L
8-Oct Southern Miss 35-63 L 42.8 - 33.9 W
15-Oct at Rutgers 20-21 L 27.9 - 32.9 L
22-Oct East Carolina 35-38 L 32.4 - 32.8 L
29-Oct at Notre Dame 14-56 L 22.5 - 34.2 L
5-Nov Troy 42-14 W 33.1 - 29.4 W
12-Nov at SMU 24-17 W 33.3 - 29.0 W
19-Nov at San Jose State 24-27 L 25.6 - 32.4 L
10-Dec Army 27-21 W 25.8 - 28.4 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 29.7 47 28.9 78
Adj. Points Per Game 30.6 20 31.1 116

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep vs. Notre Dame 11
15-Sep at Penn State 37
22-Sep VMI NR
29-Sep San Jose State 110
6-Oct at Air Force 103
12-Oct at Central Michigan 84
20-Oct Indiana 98
27-Oct at East Carolina 82
3-Nov Florida Atlantic 114
10-Nov at Troy 100
17-Nov Texas State 122
8-Dec vs. Army 95
Five-Year F/+ Rk 56
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 84
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +9 / +4.6
TO Luck/Game 1.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (4, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.9

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 48 36 31 39
RUSHING 4 24 18 32
PASSING 119 76 111 41
Standard Downs 13 12 16
Passing Downs 96 99 83
Redzone 30 19 36
Q1 Rk 50 1st Down Rk 13
Q2 Rk 16 2nd Down Rk 72
Q3 Rk 11 3rd Down Rk 17
Q4 Rk 79
Adj. Line Yards Rk 12
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 113

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Kriss Proctor 52 103 787 50.5% 7 6 12 10.4% 6.1
Trey Miller 6'0, 191 Jr. NR 12 29 205 41.4% 3 0 2 6.5% 6.3
John Hendrick 6'1, 198 So. ** (5.2)






Cody West 6'2, 208 So. NR






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Kriss Proctor QB 199 997 5.0 2.1 14 +9.0
Alexander Teich FB 186 883 4.7 1.1 4 -5.6
Gee Gee Greene SB 5'8, 180 Sr. NR 64 501 7.8 3.4 3 +7.1
Trey Miller QB 6'0, 191 Jr. NR 47 160 3.4 0.7 0 -5.8
Delvin Diggs FB 36 186 5.2 1.4 2 +3.5
John Howell SB 5'8, 180 Sr. NR 35 340 9.7 5.0 5 +14.1
Aaron Santiago SB 31 257 8.3 4.6 3 +7.0
Mike Stukel SB 19 106 5.6 2.5 2 +3.5
Bo Snelson SB 5'7, 180 Sr. NR 17 91 5.4 1.5 0 -2.4
Mike Patrick FB


15 96 6.4 3.0 0 +0.3
Darius Staten SB 5'6, 196 Jr. NR 8 74 9.3 3.3 0 +1.0
Noah Copeland FB 5'10, 205 So. NR 2 4 2.0 0.4 0 -0.4
Prentice Christian FB 5'11, 214 Sr. NR
Toneo Gulley SB 5'8, 185 Fr. *** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Gee Gee Greene SB 5'8, 180 Sr. NR 23 11 165 47.8% 19.2% 56.5% 4.0
Brandon Turner WR 6'4, 200 Sr. ** (5.3) 22 14 300 63.6% 18.3% 40.9% 12.4
Matt Aiken WR 6'0, 190 Jr. NR 22 13 201 59.1% 18.3% 45.5% 8.7
Alexander Teich FB 13 8 25 61.5% 10.8% 30.8% 1.1
John Howell SB 5'8, 180 Sr. NR 8 4 96 50.0% 6.7% 87.5% 6.8
Casey Bolena WR 6'2, 200 Jr. NR 7 4 53 57.1% 5.8% 85.7% 4.9
Aaron Santiago SB 7 3 55 42.9% 5.8% 57.1% 4.1
Bo Snelson SB 5'7, 180 Sr. NR 4 3 45 75.0% 3.3% 50.0% 11.3
Bruce Andrews WR 4 1 8 25.0% 3.3% 100.0% 2.0
Doug Furman WR 4 1 5 25.0% 3.3% 50.0% 1.3
John O'Boyle WR 6'0, 196 Sr. NR 2 1 2 50.0% 1.7% 0% 1.0

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
John Dowd RG 26 career starts, 2011 1st All-Independent
Brady DeMell C 28 career starts
Josh Cabral LG 6'3, 270 Sr. *** (5.5) 26 career starts
Ryan Basford RT 24 career starts
Andrew Barker RT 6'4, 257 Sr. NR 6 career starts
Graham Vickers LT 6'1, 270 Jr. ** (5.3) 4 career starts
Eric Douglass LG 4 career starts
David Sumrall OL 3 career starts
Kahikolu Pescaia C 6'0, 264 Sr. NR
Jake Zuzek RG 6'0, 290 So. NR
Ryan Paulson LT 6'4, 266 Sr. ** (5.2)
Thomas Stone RG 6'3, 295 Jr. ** (5.2)
Colin Watkins RT 6'3, 264 Jr. NR
Bradyn Heap C 6'3, 280 So. NR
Nathaniel Otto LG 6'2, 265 So. NR
Toye Adewon OL 6'4, 285 Fr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 86 114 116 109
RUSHING 92 108 108 100
PASSING 67 115 119 104
Standard Downs 118 118 110
Passing Downs 74 75 75
Redzone 119 118 120
Q1 Rk 99 1st Down Rk 116
Q2 Rk 118 2nd Down Rk 104
Q3 Rk 108 3rd Down Rk 105
Q4 Rk 109
Adj. Line Yards Rk 108
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 84

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jabaree Tuani DE 12 40.0 5.8% 13 5.5 3 3 4
Wes Henderson DE 6'2, 250 Sr. NR 9 20.0 2.9% 2 1 3
Jared Marks NG 10 19.5 2.8% 1 2 1
Joshua Jones DE 9 19.0 2.8% 3.5 1 2
Jamel Dobbs DE 10 14.0 2.0% 1.5 0.5
Josh Dowling-Fitzpatrick DE 6'2, 220 Sr. NR 11 8.0 1.2% 2.5 0.5 1
Collin Sturdivant DE 6'3, 219 Sr. NR 5 2.5 0.4% 1 1 1
Alex Doolittle NG 6'2, 299 Jr. NR 8 3.0 0.4%
Evan Palelei DE 6'3, 247 Jr. *** (5.6)


Barry Dabney NG 6'1, 297 Jr. ** (5.2)


Travis Bridges NG 6'0, 318 Jr. NR


Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Matt Warrick ILB 6'2, 223 Sr. NR 12 78.5 11.4% 4 1 1 7 1
Matt Brewer ILB 6'0, 228 Sr. NR 12 47.5 6.9% 2 2 4
Brye French ILB 6'1, 205 Sr. NR 12 44.0 6.4% 6 1.5 3 1
Caleb King ILB 12 27.5 4.0% 2 1
Jarred Shannon OLB 10 23.0 3.4% 1
Mason Graham OLB 9 9.0 1.3% 1 1 1
Tyler Goble LB 6'0, 232 Fr. *** (5.4)
Keegan Wetzel OLB 6'3, 218 Sr. NR


John Michael Nurthen ILB 6'2, 217 Sr. NR


Shawn Reed ILB 6'1, 221 Jr. *** (5.5)


Josh Tate OLB 5'11, 203 So. NR


Jordan Drake OLB 6'4, 220 So. NR


Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tra'ves Bush ROV 5'10, 192 Sr. NR 12 77.0 11.2% 4 2 1
David Sperry CB


12 56.5 8.2% 4 2
Kwesi Mitchell CB 12 46.0 6.7% 2 2
Chris Ferguson FS 6'2, 195 So. NR 11 32.0 4.7% 2 3 2
Parrish Gaines CB 6'2, 185 So. ** (5.2) 7 25.5 3.7% 1 1
David Wright CB 5 17.0 2.5% 1
Shawn Lynch^ ROV 6'0, 188 Jr. NR 11 14.0 2.0%
Wave Ryder FS 6'2, 205 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 13.0 1.9%
Gary Myers CB 12 6.0 0.9%
Jonathan Wev CB 5'9, 196 Jr. NR


Albrey Felder CB 5'6, 176 Jr. NR


James Britton ROV 6'2, 215 So. NR


Jalen Boyd DB 6'1, 190 Fr. *** (5.5)

^ Lynch is now a wide receiver.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Pablo Beltran 6'2, 200 So. 35 37.5 2 14 10 68.6%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Jon Teague 67 63.6 10 14.9%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Jon Teague 42-46 7-10 70.0% 3-5 60.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Marcus Thomas KR 5'7, 165 Jr. 33 22.1 1
Bo Snelson KR 5'7, 180 Sr. 7 19.3 0
Matt Aiken PR 6'0, 190 Jr. 10 5.0 0
Gary Myers PR 3 15.7 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 95
Net Punting 85
Net Kickoffs 94
Touchback Pct 58
Field Goal Pct 70
Kick Returns Avg 82
Punt Returns Avg 75

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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