2012 N.C. State Wolfpack Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 3-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 67
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Liberty 43-21 W 23.0 - 29.7 L
10-Sep at Wake Forest 27-34 L 28.5 - 30.6 L
17-Sep South Alabama 35-13 W 27.2 - 30.4 L
22-Sep at Cincinnati 14-44 L 24.2 - 30.8 L
1-Oct Georgia Tech 35-45 L 28.7 - 29.1 L
8-Oct Central Michigan 38-24 W 27.2 - 30.2 L
22-Oct at Virginia 28-14 W 23.6 - 18.3 W
29-Oct at Florida State 0-34 L 19.8 - 30.9 L
5-Nov North Carolina 13-0 W 21.2 - 7.7 W
12-Nov at Boston College 10-14 L 21.2 - 29.1 L
19-Nov Clemson 37-13 W 27.6 - 22.0 W
26-Nov Maryland 56-41 W 26.8 - 30.2 L
27-Dec vs. Louisville 31-24 W 28.0 - 28.4 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 28.2 54 24.7 54
Adj. Points Per Game 25.2 98 26.7 46

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
31-Aug vs. Tennessee 27
8-Sep at Connecticut 57
15-Sep South Alabama 123
22-Sep The Citadel NR
29-Sep at Miami 36
6-Oct Florida State 7
20-Oct at Maryland 72
27-Oct at North Carolina 33
3-Nov Virginia 52
10-Nov Wake Forest 81
17-Nov at Clemson 21
24-Nov Boston College 45
Five-Year F/+ Rk 58
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 62
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +14 / +4.6
TO Luck/Game +3.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (7, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -2.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 94 101 101 97
RUSHING 109 115 116 114
PASSING 54 74 66 77
Standard Downs 108 109 105
Passing Downs 60 82 52
Redzone 52 65 46
Q1 Rk 95 1st Down Rk 109
Q2 Rk 92 2nd Down Rk 96
Q3 Rk 83 3rd Down Rk 74
Q4 Rk 93
Adj. Line Yards Rk 85
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 82

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Mike Glennon 6'6, 232 Sr. **** (6.0) 283 453 3,054 62.5% 31 12 28 5.8% 5.9
Tyler Brosius 6'3, 233 So. *** (5.7) 8 13 66 61.5% 1 0 2 13.3% 3.3

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
James Washington RB 6'0, 180 Sr. *** (5.6) 226 883 3.9 1.0 7 -13.0
Mustafa Greene (2010^) RB 6'0, 213 So. **** (5.8) 134 597 4.5 1.4 2 -8.5
Tony Creecy RB 6'0, 196 So. **** (5.8) 103 382 3.7 0.8 1 -9.3
Curtis Underwood, Jr. RB 51 254 5.0 1.8 1 -8.2
Mike Glennon QB 6'6, 232 Sr. **** (6.0) 23 94 4.1 1.3 1 -1.1
Brandon Barnes RB 6'0, 209 Sr. **** (5.8) 3 10 3.3 0.5 0 -0.5

^ Greene missed the 2011 season with a foot injury, and his status is currently unknown because of legal troubles and suspensions.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
T.J. Graham WR 74 46 757 62.2% 16.7% 60.8% 9.7
Jay Smith WR 67 40 391 59.7% 15.1% 53.7% 4.7
James Washington RB 6'0, 180 Sr. *** (5.6) 57 42 315 73.7% 12.8% 54.4% 5.5
Tobias Palmer WR 5'11, 175 Sr. *** (5.7) 51 37 496 72.5% 11.5% 52.9% 10.2
George Bryan TE 49 33 331 67.3% 11.0% 53.1% 6.5
Bryan Underwood WR 5'11, 170 So. *** (5.7) 33 16 226 48.5% 7.4% 60.6% 4.4
Tony Creecy RB 6'0, 196 So. **** (5.8) 29 25 157 86.2% 6.5% 55.2% 6.2
Steven Howard WR 27 16 121 59.3% 6.1% 48.1% 3.2
Quintin Payton WR 6'4, 203 Jr. *** (5.5) 17 7 107 41.2% 3.8% 35.3% 5.4
Mario Carter TE 6'4, 262 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 9 84 69.2% 2.9% 76.9% 6.3
Rashard Smith WR 5'11, 176 Jr. ** (5.4)
Hakeem Flowers WR 6'3, 182 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Maurice Morgan WR 6'2, 225 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
R.J. Mattes LT 6'6, 306 Sr. **** (5.8) 30 career starts
Camden Wentz C 6'3, 301 Sr. *** (5.6) 26 career starts
Zach Allen RG 6'3, 322 Sr. ** (5.0) 26 career starts
Mikel Overgaard RT 15 career starts
Duran Christophe LG 6'6, 302 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 career starts
Andrew Wallace LG 6'5, 304 Sr. *** (5.7) 14 career starts
Rob Crisp RT 6'7, 312 Jr. ***** (6.1) 2 career starts
Tyson Chandler LT 6'6, 340 So. **** (5.8)
Cameron Fordham RG 6'3, 281 So. *** (5.6)
Andy Jomantas RT 6'7, 289 So. ** (5.2)
Alex Barr LT 6'7, 332 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Joe Thuney C 6'5, 265 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Evan Bumgardner RT 6'4, 340 RSFr. NR
Bryce Kennedy OL 6'3, 285 Fr. *** (5.7)
Quincy McKinney LG 6'4, 304 Fr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 41 60 78 47
RUSHING 37 76 77 75
PASSING 61 45 76 32
Standard Downs 52 75 44
Passing Downs 48 44 51
Redzone 34 39 40
Q1 Rk 70 1st Down Rk 70
Q2 Rk 69 2nd Down Rk 53
Q3 Rk 66 3rd Down Rk 41
Q4 Rk 12
Adj. Line Yards Rk 71
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 16

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Markus Kuhn DT 13 34.0 5.0% 9.5 4.5 3
Art Norman DE 6'1, 242 So. ** (5.4) 13 23.5 3.4% 8.5 5.5 1 1
Darryl Cato-Bishop DE 6'4, 281 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 17.0 2.5% 7 5.5 1 1 1
Brian Slay DE 6'3, 290 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 16.5 2.4% 4 3.5 2 1 2
J.R. Sweezy DT 9 15.5 2.3% 4 2 1
T.Y. McGill DT 6'1, 290 So. ** (5.4) 13 13.5 2.0% 1.5
McKay Frandsen DE 6'3, 255 Sr. *** (5.6) 11 9.5 1.4% 0.5
Thomas Teal DT 6'2, 315 So. *** (5.7) 5 7.0 1.0% 2 1.5
A.J. Ferguson DT 6'3, 281 Jr. *** (5.5) 7 4.5 0.7% 1 1
Theo Rich DE


5 4.0 0.6%
Sylvester Crawford DE 6'4, 240 Jr. *** (5.5) 7 2.0 0.3%
Deylan Buntyn DT 6'4, 330 Jr. *** (5.7)
Kenderius Whitehead DE 6'4, 220 Fr. *** (5.7)
Tyler Knox DE 6'4, 255 Fr. *** (5.7)
K'Hadree Hooker DT 6'2, 285 Fr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Audie Cole MLB 13 84.5 12.4% 13.5 5.5 4 4 1
Terrell Manning WLB


11 61.0 8.9% 14.5 5.5 3 5 4 3
Dwayne Maddox SLB 13 35.0 5.1% 6.5 0.5 1 1
D.J. Green^ LB 6'4, 220 Jr. *** (5.5) 7 24.5 3.6% 5 1 1 4
Sterling Lucas (2010^^) MLB 6'2, 238 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 10.5 1.5% 1 1 1
Zach Gentry MLB 6'0, 227 Sr. NR 12 8.5 1.2%
Michael Peek SLB 6'2, 215 So. ** (5.4) 7 6.5 1.0% 1 1
Ryan Cheek MLB 6'1, 240 Jr. *** (5.5) 5 3.5 0.5%
Brandon Pittman WLB 6'3, 216 So. *** (5.5) 6 1.5 0.2%
Rickey Dowdy SLB 6'2, 240 Jr. *** (5.7)
Rodman Noel SLB 6'3, 210 So. **** (5.8)
Mike Rose SLB 6'4, 232 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Dillon Burdette WLB 6'2, 210 RSFr. ** (5.3)
Robert Caldwell LB 6'3, 235 Jr. *** (5.6)

^ Green is suspended for the season.
^^ Lucas missed 2011 with a knee injury.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Earl Wolff BS 6'0, 201 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 82.0 12.0% 3 3 3 3 2
Brandan Bishop FS 6'2, 210 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 66.5 9.7% 3.5 5 1 1 3
David Amerson CB 6'3, 194 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 50.0 7.3% 1.5 13 5
C.J. Wilson CB 5'11, 187 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 26.5 3.9% 1 1
Dontae Johnson FS 6'3, 190 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 21.5 3.1% 3 3 4
Rashard Smith^ CB


12 14.0 2.0% 1
Dean Haynes BS


9 7.0 1.0%
Donald Coleman BS


10 6.0 0.9%
Juston Burris CB 6'1, 193 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Hakim Jones FS 6'2, 190 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Tim Buckley^^ FS 6'0, 202 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Tyrell Burriss CB 5'11, 177 RSFr. ** (5.2)

^ Smith moved to receiver in the spring.
^^ Buckley is a Penn State transfer, eligible immediately.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Wil Baumann 6'4, 185 So. 65 37.5 3 31 21 80.0%
J. Ellis Flint 4 33.0 0 4 0 100.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Niklas Sade 6'3, 195 So. 70 62.4 5 7.1%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Niklas Sade 6'3, 195 So. 46-47 9-10 90.0% 2-6 33.3%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
T.J. Graham KR 44 22.4 0
Tobais Palmer KR 5'11, 175 Sr. 3 16.0 0
T.J. Graham PR 17 11.5 1
Rashard Smith PR 5'11, 176 Jr. 2 6.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 92
Net Punting 86
Net Kickoffs 93
Touchback Pct 96
Field Goal Pct 62
Kick Returns Avg 66
Punt Returns Avg 27

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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