2012 Minnesota Golden Gophers Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 99
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at USC 17-19 L 24.7 - 26.7 L
10-Sep New Mexico State 21-28 L 24.2 - 30.0 L
17-Sep Miami (Ohio) 29-23 W 31.6 - 29.2 W
24-Sep North Dakota State 24-37 L 22.9 - 34.8 L
1-Oct at Michigan 0-58 L 16.5 - 33.2 L
8-Oct at Purdue 17-45 L 21.6 - 29.8 L
22-Oct Nebraska 14-41 L 26.8 - 31.4 L
29-Oct Iowa 22-21 W 31.7 - 30.3 W
5-Nov at Michigan State 24-31 L 31.1 - 29.6 W
12-Nov Wisconsin 13-42 L 20.9 - 31.3 L
19-Nov at Northwestern 13-28 L 21.7 - 27.1 L
26-Nov Illinois 27-7 W 30.9 - 17.8 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 18.4 111 31.7 93
Adj. Points Per Game 25.4 96 29.3 87

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug at UNLV 119
8-Sep New Hampshire NR
15-Sep Western Michigan 69
22-Sep Syracuse 78
29-Sep at Iowa 43
13-Oct Northwestern 68
20-Oct at Wisconsin 18
27-Oct Purdue 70
3-Nov Michigan 12
10-Nov at Illinois 51
17-Nov at Nebraska 24
24-Nov Michigan State 19
Five-Year F/+ Rk 82
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 53
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -8 / -5.6
TO Luck/Game -1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (6, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** +4.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 110 80 75 82
RUSHING 57 84 71 88
PASSING 109 68 78 64
Standard Downs 87 84 86
Passing Downs 90 81 94
Redzone 75 69 82
Q1 Rk 94 1st Down Rk 87
Q2 Rk 51 2nd Down Rk 66
Q3 Rk 91 3rd Down Rk 104
Q4 Rk 83
Adj. Line Yards Rk 39
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 81

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
MarQueis Gray 6'4, 240 Sr. **** (5.9) 108 213 1,495 50.7% 8 8 18 7.8% 6.2
Max Shortell 6'6, 226 So. *** (5.6) 26 54 309 48.1% 2 2 4 6.9% 5.1
Dexter Freeman 6'1, 220 RSFr. NR






Phillip Nelson 6'3, 216 Fr. *** (5.7)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Marqueis Gray QB 6'4, 240 Sr. **** (5.9) 181 1,020 5.6 2.2 6 +4.6
Duane Bennett RB 167 652 3.9 1.0 3 -15.5
Donnell Kirkwood RB 5'10, 215 So. *** (5.6) 63 229 3.6 1.0 3 -3.7
David Cobb RB 5'11, 220 So. *** (5.5) 10 57 5.7 2.5 0 -1.4
James Gillum RB 5'11, 204 Jr. *** (5.5)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Da'Jon McKnight WR-X 94 51 760 54.3% 39.2% 54.3% 6.4
Malcolm Moulton WR-Z 5'11, 186 Jr. *** (5.5) 31 14 174 45.2% 12.9% 54.8% 2.1
Collin McGarry WR-Y 21 16 122 76.2% 8.8% 57.1% 6.2
Brandon Green WR-Z 6'0, 186 Sr. **** (5.8) 21 15 188 71.4% 8.8% 28.6% 8.5
Marcus Jones WR 5'8, 170 So. ** (5.4) 21 9 142 42.9% 8.8% 61.9% 3.3
Eric Lair TE 19 11 168 57.9% 7.9% 63.2% 7.2
Devin Crawford-Tufts WR-X 6'2, 191 So. *** (5.5) 14 8 156 57.1% 5.8% 50.0% 11.0
John Rabe TE 6'4, 252 Sr. ** (5.4) 9 4 36 44.4% 3.8% 22.2% 1.0
Duane Bennett RB 6 3 23 50.0% 2.5% 33.3% 5.8
Drew Goodger TE 6'5, 255 So. *** (5.6)



Isaac Fruechte WR 6'3, 205 So. ** (5.4)



Andre McDonald WR 6'3, 200 Fr. *** (5.7)



Jamel Harbison WR 6'0, 191 Fr. *** (5.6)



Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Chris Bunders RT 40 career starts
Ryan Wynn C 26 career starts
Ed Olson LT 6'7, 300 Jr. *** (5.6) 19 career starts
Ryan Orton RG 14 career starts
Zac Epping RG 6'2, 297 So. *** (5.5) 8 career starts
Jimmy Gjere RT 6'7, 325 So. **** (5.8) 5 career starts
Tommy Olson LG 6'4, 289 So. *** (5.7) 4 career starts
Caleb Bak LG 6'3, 296 So. NR 3 career starts
Marek Lenkiewicz LT 6'5, 270 So. *** (5.6) 1 career start
Zach Mottla C 6'2, 290 Jr. NR
Sean Ferguson RT 6'6, 296 So. *** (5.5)
Josh Campion RG 6'5, 315 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Foster Bush RG 6'5, 300 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Kyle McAvoy LG 6'5, 305 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Isaac Hayes OL 6'3, 270 Fr. *** (5.6)
Jonah Pirsig OL 6'9, 300 Fr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 77 73 67 79
RUSHING 91 93 87 94
PASSING 49 63 46 70
Standard Downs 86 77 87
Passing Downs 45 54 39
Redzone 68 54 68
Q1 Rk 77 1st Down Rk 82
Q2 Rk 113 2nd Down Rk 58
Q3 Rk 46 3rd Down Rk 68
Q4 Rk 15
Adj. Line Yards Rk 52
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 77

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Anthony Jacobs DT 12 19.5 2.9% 6 1 2
Brandon Kirksey NT 12 13.5 2.0% 1 1
D.L. Wilhite DE 6'4, 245 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 13.0 2.0% 3 3 1
RaShede Hageman DT 6'6, 302 Jr. *** (5.7) 12 11.5 1.7% 3.5 2 1
Michael Amaefula DE 6'2, 235 So. *** (5.5) 12 11.0 1.7% 1.5 1.5 2
Ben Perry DE 6'5, 241 So. ** (5.3) 12 10.5 1.6% 2.5 1
Kendall Gregory-McGhee DE 6'5, 255 Jr. *** (5.7) 9 4.0 0.6% 1.5
Matt Garin DE 6'4, 252 Jr. *** (5.7) 8 4.0 0.6% 1.5
Cameron Botticelli NT 6'5, 274 So. ** (5.3) 12 3.5 0.5% 0.5
Austin Hahn (2010^) DT 6'4, 270 Sr. ** (5.0) 7 2.5 0.4% 0.5 1
Theiren Cockran DE 6'6, 235 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Roland Johnson DT 6'1, 295 Jr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Mike Rallis OLB 6'2, 231 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 68.0 10.3% 5 1.5 2 1
Gary Tinsley MLB 12 65.0 9.8% 9 4 3
Keanon Cooper OLB 6'0, 212 Sr. **** (5.8) 12 55.5 8.4% 6 1 2 2 1
Aaron Hill OLB 6'2, 225 Jr. NR 9 24.0 3.6% 1 1 1
Lamonte Edwards OLB 6'2, 210 So. **** (5.8) 12 11.5 1.7%
Spencer Reeves OLB 6'2, 223 Sr. *** (5.7) 10 6.0 0.9%
Ryan Grant MLB 6'2, 230 Sr. ** (5.4) 11 4.5 0.7%
Pat Sveum OLB 12 3.5 0.5%
Joey Balthazor OLB 6'3, 230 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 1.5 0.2%
Brendan Beal MLB 6'3, 250 Jr. **** (6.0)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kim Royston S 12 97.0 14.6% 3.5 1 1 2
Brock Vereen S 6'0, 182 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 56.5 8.5% 3.5 1 7 1
Kyle Henderson CB 12 53.5 8.1% 4 2 5 1
Christyn Lewis S 12 34.5 5.2% 1 2
Troy Stoudermire CB 5'10, 200 Sr. *** (5.5) 5 22.0 3.3% 3 2 3
Cedric Thompson S 5'11, 196 So. ** (5.2) 7 13.0 2.0%
Shady Salamon S 10 9.5 1.4% 1
Michael Carter CB 5'11, 185 Sr. **** (5.9) 4 8.5 1.3%
James Manuel S 6'2, 214 Jr. *** (5.6) 10 8.5 1.3%
Johnny Johnson CB 9 5.5 0.8%
Chase Haviland S 5'9, 185 Jr. NR 9 5.5 0.8% 1
Derrick Wells S 6'0, 191 So. ** (5.4) 11 5.5 0.8%
Martez Shabazz CB 5'11, 165 Jr. *** (5.5)
Jeremy Baltazar DB 6'0, 196 Jr. ** (5.4)
Briean Boddy CB 5'11, 185 So. *** (5.5)
Antonio Johnson DB 6'0, 185 Fr. *** (5.6)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Dan Orseske 6'3, 206 Jr. 57 37.0 5 20 12 56.1%
David Schwerman 6'0, 195 Sr. 2 23.5 0 0 0 0.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Chris Hawthorne 6'4, 198 Jr. 26 64.6 5 19.2%
Jordan Wettstein 5'11, 185 Sr. 24 63.5 3 12.5%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Chris Hawthorne 6'4, 198 Jr. 14-15 5-6 83.3% 1-3 33.3%
Jordan Wettstein 5'11, 185 Sr. 9-10 3-3 100.0% 3-3 100.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Marcus Jones KR 5'8, 170 So. 13 28.5 1
Malcolm Moulton KR 5'11, 186 Jr. 13 20.0 0
Duane Bennett KR 11 31.3 1
Brandon Green PR 6'0, 186 Sr. 6 4.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 35
Net Punting 105
Net Kickoffs 24
Touchback Pct 53
Field Goal Pct 26
Kick Returns Avg 29
Punt Returns Avg 71

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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