2012 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 115
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Purdue 24-27 L 28.1 - 29.1 L
10-Sep Georgia Tech 21-49 L 30.0 - 32.7 L
24-Sep at Troy 35-38 L 28.2 - 31.3 L
1-Oct Memphis 38-31 W 27.6 - 32.4 L
6-Oct Western Kentucky 33-36 L 27.4 - 29.0 L
22-Oct at Florida Atlantic 38-14 W 28.9 - 25.6 W
29-Oct UL-Lafayette 20-45 L 26.4 - 31.6 L
5-Nov at Tennessee 0-24 L 19.9 - 32.0 L
12-Nov at UL-Monroe 14-42 L 27.8 - 32.8 L
19-Nov Arkansas State 19-45 L 21.7 - 29.3 L
26-Nov Florida International 18-31 L 27.9 - 31.4 L
3-Dec at North Texas 7-59 L 17.0 - 33.4 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 22.3 96 36.8 110
Adj. Points Per Game 25.9 90 30.9 113

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep McNeese State NR
8-Sep Florida Atlantic 114
15-Sep at Memphis 117
29-Sep at Georgia Tech 26
6-Oct UL-Monroe 90
13-Oct at Florida International 56
20-Oct at Mississippi State 48
27-Oct North Texas 106
1-Nov at Western Kentucky 88
17-Nov at South Alabama 120
24-Nov Troy 100
1-Dec at Arkansas State 87
Five-Year F/+ Rk 96
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 104
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -8 / -6.0
TO Luck/Game -0.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (6, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** +6.0

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 45 105 79 111
RUSHING 70 96 42 115
PASSING 36 107 90 111
Standard Downs 92 49 110
Passing Downs 91 95 81
Redzone 80 79 79
Q1 Rk 107 1st Down Rk 94
Q2 Rk 107 2nd Down Rk 70
Q3 Rk 109 3rd Down Rk 99
Q4 Rk 26
Adj. Line Yards Rk 76
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 4

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Logan Kilgore 6'3, 186 Jr. *** (5.6) 214 365 2,231 58.6% 18 12 5 1.4% 6.0
Jeff Murphy 6'0, 203 Sr. NR 84 140 794 60.0% 3 3 5 3.4% 5.2
Shaun White 5'11, 210 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Austin Grammer 6'2, 204 Fr. *** (5.5)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
William Pratcher RB 5'7, 195 Jr. ** (5.2) 122 585 4.8 1.8 2 -5.6
Benny Cunningham RB 5'10, 210 Sr. ** (5.4) 115 501 4.4 1.4 4 -6.8
D.D. Kyles RB 67 312 4.7 1.8 3 -0.5
Jeff Murphy QB 6'0, 203 Sr. NR 30 147 4.9 1.0 0 +0.7
Reggie Whatley RB 5'7, 175 So. ** (5.3) 30 67 2.2 0.7 1 -5.0
Logan Kilgore QB 6'3, 186 Jr. *** (5.6) 27 134 5.0 1.3 1 -0.5
Kyle Griswould WR-Z 5'10, 192 Jr. ** (5.2) 24 86 3.6 1.4 2 +0.8
Drayton Calhoun RB 5'11, 184 Jr. **** (5.9)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Malcolm Beyah WR-Z 82 45 497 54.9% 17.1% 58.5% 3.7
Tavarres Jefferson WR-H 5'9, 191 Sr. ** (5.4) 69 51 398 73.9% 14.4% 59.4% 5.9
Sancho McDonald WR-X 59 35 384 59.3% 12.3% 62.7% 4.8
Anthony Amos WR-Y 5'11, 190 Sr. *** (5.5) 50 27 379 54.0% 10.4% 52.0% 5.4
Kyle Griswould WR-Z 5'10, 192 Jr. ** (5.2) 49 31 390 63.3% 10.2% 46.9% 6.9
Shane Blissard WR-Y 28 16 124 57.1% 5.8% 60.7% 3.3
Tyler Mason WR-H 27 17 141 63.0% 5.6% 59.3% 4.6
Jamal Gray WR-X 6'0, 190 Sr. ** (5.2) 22 14 89 63.6% 4.6% 59.1% 2.8
Benny Cunningham RB 5'10, 210 Sr. ** (5.4) 27 17 187 63.0% 5.6% 44.4% 6.9
Reggie Whatley RB 5'7, 175 So. ** (5.3) 22 14 188 63.6% 4.6% 54.5% 7.1
Christian Collis WR 6'0, 204 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Jacob Bennett WR 6'1, 205 Jr. *** (5.5)






Marcus Henry WR 6'0, 180 So. ** (5.4)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Colin Boss C 27 career starts; 2011 1st All-Sun Belt
Brandon McLeroy LG 37 career starts; 2011 2nd All-Sun Belt
Mike Williams LT 47 career starts
Alex Stuart RT 6'2, 288 Sr. ** (5.3) 20 career starts
Preston Bailey LG


16 career starts
Josh Walker RG 6'5, 304 Jr. ** (5.1) 9 career starts
Micah James LG 6'3, 303 Sr. ** (5.4) 2 career starts
Isaiah Anderson RT 6'4, 279 So. ** (5.3) 2 career starts
Jadarieus Hamlin LT 6'2, 276 Jr. ** (5.2) 1 career start
Quinton Groves C
Darius Johnson LT 6'3, 276 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Roberto Loya LT 6'5, 279 RSFr. ** (5.4)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 103 116 117 116
RUSHING 114 117 118 116
PASSING 44 113 111 116
Standard Downs 117 117 114
Passing Downs 94 106 89
Redzone 118 117 118
Q1 Rk 117 1st Down Rk 115
Q2 Rk 80 2nd Down Rk 116
Q3 Rk 118 3rd Down Rk 98
Q4 Rk 114
Adj. Line Yards Rk 118
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 67

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Omar McLendon DE 6'3, 240 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 43.0 5.6% 4.5 2.5 4 1
Shubert Bastien DE 6'5, 220 So. ** (5.4) 12 29.0 3.8% 4.5 2 1
Kendall Dangerfield DT 6'2, 274 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 25.0 3.2% 8 1 1
Jimmy Staten DT 6'4, 285 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 21.5 2.8% 4 1
Jiajuan Fennell DE 6'3, 235 So. ** (5.2) 9 19.5 2.5% 5 1 2 1
Leighton Gasque DE 6'2, 201 So. *** (5.5) 12 15.5 2.0% 7 7 1
SaCoby Carter DT 11 15.5 2.0% 2 0.5
Dearco Nolan DT 6'2, 248 Jr. ** (5.2) 11 11.0 1.4% 3.5 1
Max Ugboaja DE 6'4, 245 So. ** (5.3) 12 5.5 0.7% 0.5 0.5
Morris Moore DT 6'4, 280 So. ** (5.2) 8 5.5 0.7% 2 1 1
Patrick McNeil (2010^) DT 6'1, 295 So. *** (5.5) 2 2.0 0.2%




^ McNeil missed the 2011 season with an Achilles injury.

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Darin Davis SAM 12 50.0 6.5% 6 1.5 1 1
Craig Allen WILL 6'2, 220 Jr. ** (5.3) 9 45.5 5.9% 2.5 1 1 1
Gorby Loreus MIKE 12 42.5 5.5% 4
Roderic Blunt WILL 6'0, 225 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 42.0 5.5% 1.5 0.5
Christian Henry MIKE 6'0, 225 So. ** (5.2) 12 29.5 3.8%
David Jones SAM 5'11, 196 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 23.0 3.0% 1 2
Justin Jones LB 5'11, 214 Jr. *** (5.5) 3 16.5 2.1% 4
Corey Carmichael LB 5'11, 222 Jr. ** (5.3) 10 14.0 1.8% 1.5
Stephen Roberts LB 6'3, 230 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 13.0 1.7%
Norman Washington LB 12 8.0 1.0% 1

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Eric Russell SS 12 76.0 9.9% 7 1 2 3 2 2
Arness Ikner CB 12 50.0 6.5% 2 1 7 3
Derrick Crumpton FS 12 46.0 6.0% 3 1
T.L. Edwards CB 12 26.5 3.4% 1 1 4 1
Kenneth Gilstrap CB 5'9, 180 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 25.0 3.2% 0.5 0.5 2 1
Sammy Seamster SS 6'1, 203 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 11.5 1.5%
Denzell Guerra FS


12 10.5 1.4%
Khari Burke CB 5'8, 172 So. *** (5.6) 12 8.0 1.0%
Marquise Dixon CB 6 3.5 0.5% 1 1 1
Demetrius Frazier CB 5'10, 174 Fr. *** (5.6)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Nathaniel Thoulson 50 40.1 2 12 18 60.0%
Josh Davis 5'10, 200 Jr. 13 42.1 0 2 4 46.2%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Alan Gendreau 50 56.4 3 6.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Alan Gendreau 31-32 7-9 77.8% 1-5 20.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Eric Russell KR 43 20.7 0
Tyler Mason KR 8 11.5 0
Kenneth Gilstrap KR 5'9, 180 Jr. 5 22.8 0
Eric Russell PR 15 9.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 99
Net Punting 78
Net Kickoffs 118
Touchback Pct 101
Field Goal Pct 106
Kick Returns Avg 107
Punt Returns Avg 32

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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