2012 Michigan State Spartans Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-3 | Adj. Record: 10-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 10
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
2-Sep Youngstown State 28-6 W 28.8 - 29.3 L
10-Sep Florida Atlantic 44-0 W 28.5 - 5.5 W
17-Sep at Notre Dame 13-31 L 23.6 - 25.2 L
24-Sep Central Michigan 45-7 W 29.1 - 5.7 W
1-Oct at Ohio State 10-7 W 25.6 - 17.8 W
15-Oct Michigan 28-14 W 27.1 - 17.3 W
22-Oct Wisconsin 37-31 W 33.4 - 27.2 W
29-Oct at Nebraska 3-24 L 17.6 - 24.8 L
5-Nov Minnesota 31-24 W 26.6 - 28.8 L
12-Nov at Iowa 37-21 W 29.3 - 22.8 W
19-Nov Indiana 55-3 W 29.7 - 17.4 W
26-Nov at Northwestern 31-17 W 27.3 - 26.1 W
3-Dec vs. Wisconsin 39-42 L 39.5 - 26.4 W
2-Jan vs. Georgia 33-30 W 28.4 - 18.8 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 31.0 37 18.4 10
Adj. Points Per Game 28.2 50 20.9 3

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
31-Aug Boise State 39
8-Sep at Central Michigan 84
15-Sep Notre Dame 11
22-Sep Eastern Michigan 91
29-Sep Ohio State 20
6-Oct at Indiana 98
13-Oct Iowa 43
20-Oct at Michigan 12
27-Oct at Wisconsin 18
3-Nov Nebraska 24
17-Nov Northwestern 68
24-Nov at Minnesota 96
Five-Year F/+ Rk 29
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 35
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +7 / +4.1
TO Luck/Game 1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (4, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -2.5

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 56 51 67 34
RUSHING 78 83 95 60
PASSING 41 32 40 26
Standard Downs 58 76 50
Passing Downs 37 77 26
Redzone 73 77 69
Q1 Rk 48 1st Down Rk 74
Q2 Rk 25 2nd Down Rk 37
Q3 Rk 23 3rd Down Rk 47
Q4 Rk 114
Adj. Line Yards Rk 84
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 25

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Kirk Cousins 267 419 3,316 63.7% 25 10 16 3.7% 7.4
Andrew Maxwell 6'3, 212 Jr. **** (5.9) 18 26 171 69.2% 1 0 2 7.1% 5.9
Connor Cook 6'4, 215 RSFr. *** (5.7)






Tommy Vento 6'1, 199 RSFr. NR






Tyler O'Connor 6'3, 202 Fr. *** (5.7)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Le'Veon Bell RB 6'2, 237 So. ** (5.4) 182 948 5.2 1.8 13 +16.1
Edwin Baker RB 170 665 3.9 1.2 5 -13.2
Larry Caper RB 5'11, 223 Sr. **** (5.8) 30 116 3.9 0.8 1 -2.6
Nick Hill RB 5'7, 180 So. *** (5.7) 29 113 3.9 0.8 0 -3.8
Kirk Cousins QB 21 64 3.0 2.2 0 -3.5
Keshawn Martin WR-Z 19 113 5.9 3.0 2 +3.5
Nick Tompkins RB 5'10, 185 Fr.






Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
B.J. Cunningham WR-X 122 79 1,299 64.8% 28.1% 57.4% 9.9
Keshawn Martin WR-Z 98 66 777 67.3% 22.6% 57.1% 7.5
Keith Nichol WR-X 49 26 359 53.1% 11.3% 55.1% 5.4
Le'Veon Bell RB 6'2, 237 So. ** (5.4) 45 35 267 77.8% 10.4% 57.8% 6.5
Brian Linthicum TE 43 31 364 72.1% 9.9% 60.5% 8.6
DeAnthony Arnett^ WR-Z 5'11, 170 So. **** (5.9) 36 24 242 66.7% 9.8% 66.7% 6.5
Bennie Fowler (2010^^) WR-Z 6'1, 215 Jr. *** (5.6) 22 14 175 63.6% 6.7% 27.3% 10.2
Dion Sims TE 6'5, 276 Jr. **** (5.8) 22 12 99 54.5% 5.1% 77.3% 1.9
Larry Caper RB 5'11, 223 Sr. **** (5.8) 15 10 86 66.7% 3.5% 26.7% 3.7
Todd Anderson FB 8 6 40 75.0% 1.8% 100.0% 3.0
Brad Sonntag WR-X 7 6 44 85.7% 1.6% 42.9% 6.3
Edwin Baker RB 7 5 60 71.4% 1.6% 71.4% 7.9
Tony Lippett WR-X 6'2, 189 So. *** (5.5) 7 4 44 57.1% 1.6% 42.9% 4.3
Keith Mumphrey WR-Z 6'0, 208 So. *** (5.7) 4 2 39 50.0% 0.9% 25.0% 9.8
Dana Dixon WR-X 6'2, 170 Jr. *** (5.5)
Derek Hoebing TE 6'7, 270 Jr. ** (5.4)
Andrew Gleichert TE 6'5, 256 So. NR
Juwan Caesar WR-X 6'4, 209 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Andre Sims, Jr. WR-Z 5'9, 187 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Aaron Burbridge WR 6'1, 175 Fr. **** (5.9)
Monty Madaris WR 6'2, 190 Fr. *** (5.7)
Josiah Price TE 6'5, 239 Fr. *** (5.7)
Macgarrett Kings, Jr. WR 5'11, 178 Fr. *** (5.7)

^ Arnett is a Tennessee transfer who is eligible to play immediately at Michigan State.
^^ Fowler struggled with injuries and caught only two passes in 2011.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Joel Foreman LG 49 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big Ten
Chris McDonald RG 6'5, 300 Sr. *** (5.5) 26 career starts
Dan France LT 6'6, 315 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 career starts
Fou Fonoti RT 6'4, 300 Sr. *** (5.7) 11 career starts
Travis Jackson C 6'3, 275 So. *** (5.7) 10 career starts
Blake Treadwell LG 6'3, 299 Jr. **** (5.8) 9 career starts
Jared McGaha LG 4 career starts
Skyler Burkland LT 6'7, 315 So. NR 3 career starts
Ethan Ruhland LG 6'5, 290 Sr. *** (5.7) 1 career start
Arthur Ray, Jr. LG 6'3, 300 Sr. *** (5.7) 1 career start
John Deyo RG 6'6, 305 Sr. ** (5.4)
Henry Conway RT 6'6, 318 Jr. *** (5.5)
Jack Allen C 6'1, 292 RSFr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 6 7 6 9
RUSHING 9 8 8 12
PASSING 11 11 9 11
Standard Downs 5 4 6
Passing Downs 6 7 10
Redzone 15 12 21
Q1 Rk 35 1st Down Rk 3
Q2 Rk 1 2nd Down Rk 9
Q3 Rk 25 3rd Down Rk 14
Q4 Rk 3
Adj. Line Yards Rk 13
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 8

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
William Gholston DE 6'7, 275 Jr. ***** (6.1) 13 53.0 7.4% 16 5 2 1 1
Marcus Rush DE 6'2, 250 So. *** (5.6) 14 44.5 6.2% 12 4 5 1
Kevin Pickelman NT 13 28.0 3.9% 7.5 4 1 1
Tyler Hoover (2010^) DT 6'7, 295 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 25.0 3.5% 3.5 3 2 1 1
Jerel Worthy DT 14 24.5 3.4% 10.5 3.5 1 1
Anthony Rashad White NT 6'2, 320 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 18.0 2.5% 4 0.5
Denzel Drone DE 6'2, 262 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 10.5 1.5% 4 2.5 1 1 1
Jeremy Gainer DE 6'1, 228 Jr. **** (5.8) 14 8.5 1.2% 2
Johnathan Strayhorn DT 10 4.0 0.6% 1.5 0.5 2
Corey Freeman DE 6'2, 250 Sr. ** (5.4) 10 3.5 0.5% 1.5 0.5
Blake Pacheco DT 3 3.5 0.5%
Micajah Reynolds NT 6'5, 320 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 3.5 0.5%
James Kittredge DT 6'4, 271 So. *** (5.6)
Brandon Clemons NT 6'3, 274 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Damon Knox DT 6'4, 280 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Joel Heath DE 6'6, 277 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Shilique Calhoun DE 6'4, 240 RSFr. *** (5.5)

^ Hoover missed 2011 with injury.

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Denicos Allen SAM 5'10, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 63.0 8.8% 18.5 11 3
Max Bullough MIKE 6'3, 252 Jr. **** (5.8) 14 62.5 8.8% 7 3.5 1 2 2
Chris Norman STAR 6'1, 227 Sr. **** (5.9) 12 58.0 8.1% 6.5 2 2 1
Kyler Elsworth SAM 6'1, 215 Jr. NR 14 26.0 3.6% 2.5 0.5 1
Steve Gardiner MIKE 6'1, 222 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 12.0 1.7% 1 1
Taiwan Jones STAR 6'3, 232 So. *** (5.7) 14 10.5 1.5% 0.5 0.5 1
TyQuan Hammock MIKE 6'0, 230 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 8.0 1.1% 1
Ed Davis SAM 6'3, 220 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Darien Harris STAR 6'0, 215 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Jamal Lyles LB 6'3, 215 Fr. **** (5.8)
Riley Bullough LB 6'2, 205 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Trenton Robinson FS 14 64.0 9.0% 2 4 2
Isaiah Lewis SS 5'10, 195 Jr. **** (5.8) 14 54.0 7.6% 2.5 4 3
Johnny Adams CB 5'11, 175 Sr. *** (5.7) 14 44.0 6.2% 4 3 3 6
Darqueze Dennard CB 5'11, 190 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 36.0 5.0% 1 3 3
Tony Lippett CB 6'2, 189 So. *** (5.5) 14 13.5 1.9% 0.5 5 1
Kurtis Drummond FS 6'1, 196 So. *** (5.6) 12 13.0 1.8% 1 1 2 1
Jairus Jones SS 6'1, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 6 10.0 1.4% 1
Mitchell White CB 5'11, 180 Sr. NR 13 6.0 0.8%
Jeremy Langford CB 5'11, 205 So. *** (5.6) 14 4.0 0.6% 1 1 2
Dana Dixon FS 9 2.5 0.4% 1
Arjen Colquhoun CB 6'1, 189 RSFr. *** (5.7)
R.J. Williamson FS 6'0, 200 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Trael Waynes CB 6'1, 175 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Chris Laneaux FS 5'11, 192 RSFr. NR
Demetrious Cox DB 6'1, 192 Fr. **** (5.8)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Mike Sadler 6'0, 182 So. 61 41.1 7 15 25 65.6%
Kyle Selden 3 47.3 1 1 1 66.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Kevin Muma 6'0, 189 Jr. 83 65.1 17 20.5%
Mike Sadler 6'0, 182 So. 1 48 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Dan Conroy 5'10, 190 Sr. 48-48 11-13 84.6% 6-10 60.0%
Kevin Muma 6'0, 189 Jr. 0-0 1-1 100.0% 0-0 N/A
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Nick Hill KR 5'7, 180 So. 38 26.3 0
TyQuan Hammock KR 6'0, 230 Jr. 3 10.0 0
Keshawn Martin PR 25 11.0 1
Nick Hill PR 5'7, 180 So. 5 3.2 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 19
Net Punting 91
Net Kickoffs 53
Touchback Pct 31
Field Goal Pct 40
Kick Returns Avg 25
Punt Returns Avg 33

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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