2012 Miami (Ohio) Redhawks: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 82
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Missouri 6-17 L 21.2 - 23.8 L
17-Sep at Minnesota 23-29 L 24.3 - 32.2 L
24-Sep Bowling Green 23-37 L 21.8 - 29.2 L
1-Oct Cincinnati 0-27 L 19.5 - 26.5 L
8-Oct Army 35-28 W 31.5 - 29.5 W
15-Oct at Kent State 9-3 W 19.6 - 26.1 L
22-Oct at Toledo 28-49 L 28.4 - 29.8 L
29-Oct Buffalo 41-13 W 36.1 - 23.7 W
3-Nov Akron 35-3 W 26.2 - 20.7 W
9-Nov at Temple 21-24 L 32.0 - 26.6 W
16-Nov Western Michigan 21-24 L 27.8 - 27.3 W
22-Nov at Ohio 14-21 L 31.4 - 29.2 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 21.3 103 22.9 39
Adj. Points Per Game 26.7 76 27.1 50

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Ohio State 20
8-Sep Southern Illinois NR
15-Sep at Boise State 39
22-Sep Massachusetts 116
29-Sep at Akron 123
6-Oct at Cincinnati 44
13-Oct at Bowling Green 64
27-Oct Ohio 61
3-Nov at Buffalo 107
10-Nov Kent State 92
17-Nov at Central Michigan 84
23-Nov Ball State 89
Five-Year F/+ Rk 107
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 117
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -4 / -1.8
TO Luck/Game -0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 16 (8, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.6

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 75 84 85 87
RUSHING 120 107 100 112
PASSING 14 72 64 74
Standard Downs 98 103 96
Passing Downs 32 36 37
Redzone 40 33 58
Q1 Rk 55 1st Down Rk 88
Q2 Rk 80 2nd Down Rk 77
Q3 Rk 96 3rd Down Rk 51
Q4 Rk 85
Adj. Line Yards Rk 100
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 106

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Zac Dysert 6'4, 214 Sr. *** (5.6) 295 448 3,513 65.8% 23 11 46 9.3% 6.4
Austin Boucher 6'1, 210 Jr. ** (5.2) 6 10 76 60.0% 1 0 1 9.1% 5.8

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Erik Finklea TB 6'1, 202 Jr. ** (5.4) 92 328 3.6 0.9 4 -6.8
Zac Dysert QB 6'4, 214 Sr. *** (5.6) 79 455 5.8 1.9 4 +5.2
Justin Semmes FB 6'2, 230 Jr. *** (5.5) 41 170 4.1 0.9 2 -0.1
Tyrone Jones TB 40 99 2.5 0.5 1 -5.6
Chrishawn Dupuy TB 5'9, 180 So. ** (5.2) 30 85 2.8 0.9 0 -7.0
Dan Green TB


15 17 1.1 0.2 0 -5.1

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Nick Harwell WR-Z 6'1, 187 Jr. ** (5.2) 129 97 1,425 75.2% 30.7% 62.8% 12.0
Chris Givens WR-X 84 60 695 71.4% 20.0% 66.7% 8.3
Andy Cruse WR-J 6'4, 210 Sr. ** (5.2) 55 43 391 78.2% 13.1% 47.3% 8.1
Dawan Scott WR-Z 6'0, 170 So. ** (5.2) 37 20 424 54.1% 8.8% 59.5% 8.9
David Frazier WR-J 6'0, 164 So. ** (5.2) 36 28 259 77.8% 8.6% 47.2% 7.8
Chrishawn Dupuy TB 5'9, 180 So. ** (5.2) 19 10 45 52.6% 4.5% 52.6% 1.5
Willie Culpepper WR-X 5'9, 161 So. ** (5.2) 14 9 116 64.3% 3.3% 57.1% 8.0
Tyrone Jones TB 12 8 73 66.7% 2.9% 58.3% 5.6
Kendrick Bruton TE 11 8 38 72.7% 2.6% 63.6% 3.8
Justin Semmes TE 6'2, 230 Jr. *** (5.5) 8 8 79 100.0% 1.9% 62.5% 13.3
Orlando David TE 6'3, 230 Fr. *** (5.6)






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Brandon Brooks RG 41 career starts, 2011 2nd All-MAC
Brad Bednar LT 6'4, 282 Sr. ** (5.0) 35 career starts
Matt Kennedy RT 6'5, 266 Sr. ** (4.9) 27 career starts
JoJo Williams C 6'2, 278 Sr. ** (5.2) 14 career starts
Josh Harvey OL 6'5, 352 Jr. ** (4.9) 14 career starts
Marcus Matthews LG 6'3, 321 So. ** (5.3) 7 career starts
John Anevski LG 6'3, 277 Jr. *** (5.5) 5 career starts
Zach Lewis RT 6'6, 264 So. ** (5.2) 5 career starts
Cory Brown LT 4 career starts
Andy Muller RG 6'4, 289 Jr. ** (4.9)
Brandyn Cook OL 6'2, 290 Fr. *** (5.6)
Ryan Callen OL 6'4, 263 Fr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 48 47 41 53
RUSHING 75 46 38 55
PASSING 24 62 65 59
Standard Downs 30 30 34
Passing Downs 87 86 85
Redzone 45 80 27
Q1 Rk 68 1st Down Rk 39
Q2 Rk 40 2nd Down Rk 54
Q3 Rk 61 3rd Down Rk 70
Q4 Rk 18
Adj. Line Yards Rk 11
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 17

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
C.J. Marck BUCK 11 33.5 5.0% 8.5 3 3 2 1
Jason Semmes DE 6'3, 247 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 33.0 5.0% 9.5 4.5 1 1 1
Austin Brown DT 6'2, 270 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 25.5 3.8% 8.5 3 2
Luke Kelly BUCK 6'4, 219 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 17.5 2.6% 2.5 1
Mike Johns NT 6'4, 270 Sr. ** (5.4) 11 17.5 2.6% 6.5 0.5
Will Diaz DE 5 17.0 2.6% 5.5 1
Jordain Brown NT 12 13.0 2.0% 1 0.5 2
Wes Williams DE 6'3, 244 Sr. ** (4.9) 3 9.0 1.4% 1.5 1.5 1
David Deleon DT 6'0, 270 Fr. *** (5.6)

Wesley Scott DE 6'3, 245 Fr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jerrell Wedge WLB 11 61.0 9.2% 4 0.5 2 1
Ryan Kennedy MLB 11 59.0 8.9% 8.5 3 1 1
Evan Harris SLB 6'0, 221 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 31.0 4.7% 3 0.5 1 1
Jaytee Swanson WLB 6'2, 221 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 23.0 3.5% 4 3 1
Tyler Tucker SLB 6'2, 214 So. ** (5.2) 11 14.0 2.1% 1.5
Collin Boucher LB 6'2, 224 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 9.5 1.4%
Chris Wade LB 6'1, 218 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 9.0 1.4%

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Anthony Kokal FS 12 70.0 10.5% 5 2 1 2 3 2
Pat Hinkel SS 6'1, 205 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 52.0 7.8% 1.5 1 2
Dayonne Nunley CB 5'8, 183 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 51.5 7.7% 8 3 13
D.J. Brown CB 6'1, 179 Sr. ** (5.1) 11 24.5 3.7% 1.5 4 1
Demetrius Quarles CB 5'8, 147 Jr. ** (5.2) 10 21.0 3.2% 1 4
Justin Bowers FS 5'10, 203 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 18.0 2.7% 1.5 1
Brison Burris DB 5'10, 178 So. ** (5.4) 7 17.0 2.6% 1 1
Jarrell Jones CB 5'10, 174 So. ** (5.3) 4 4.5 0.7% 1

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Zac Murphy 6'0, 180 Jr. 56 39.1 3 6 13 33.9%
Anthony Kokal 7 32.3 2 0 0 0.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Mason Krysinski 6'3, 196 Jr. 47 56 1 2.1%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Mason Krysinski 6'3, 196 Jr. 30-33 1-4 25.0% 1-2 50.0%
Zac Murphy 6'0, 180 Jr. 2-2 0-0 N/A 0-0 N/A
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Dayonne Nunley KR 5'8, 183 Jr. 16 23.0 0
Dawan Scott KR 6'0, 170 So. 14 19.3 0
Chris Givens PR 7 4.1 0
Nick Harwell PR 6'1, 187 Jr. 6 3.8 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 108
Net Punting 117
Net Kickoffs 66
Touchback Pct 111
Field Goal Pct 119
Kick Returns Avg 96
Punt Returns Avg 114

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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