2012 Memphis Tigers Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 117
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep Mississippi State 14-59 L 22.0 - 34.9 L
10-Sep at Arkansas State 3-47 L 19.2 - 32.9 L
17-Sep Austin Peay 27-6 W 23.9 - 33.4 L
24-Sep SMU 0-42 L 14.9 - 32.4 L
1-Oct at Middle Tennessee 31-38 L 24.7 - 31.7 L
8-Oct at Rice 6-28 L 18.1 - 27.9 L
15-Oct East Carolina 17-35 L 20.2 - 30.6 L
22-Oct at Tulane 33-17 W 24.5 - 29.6 L
29-Oct at Central Florida 0-41 L 17.5 - 29.1 L
12-Nov UAB 35-41 L 29.3 - 32.9 L
17-Nov Marshall 22-23 L 20.5 - 28.2 L
26-Nov at Southern Miss 7-44 L 17.0 - 29.7 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 16.3 115 35.1 105
Adj. Points Per Game 21.0 119 31.1 115

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep UT-Martin NR
8-Sep at Arkansas State 87
15-Sep Middle Tennessee 113
22-Sep at Duke 75
6-Oct Rice 112
13-Oct at East Carolina 82
20-Oct Central Florida 49
27-Oct at SMU 65
3-Nov at Marshall 94
10-Nov Tulane 111
17-Nov at UAB 115
24-Nov Southern Miss 46
Five-Year F/+ Rk 117
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 63
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +12 / +4.5
TO Luck/Game 3.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +2.8

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 116 119 120 117
RUSHING 119 120 120 120
PASSING 85 111 110 112
Standard Downs 118 120 116
Passing Downs 118 116 118
Redzone 69 80 59
Q1 Rk 118 1st Down Rk 117
Q2 Rk 115 2nd Down Rk 120
Q3 Rk 116 3rd Down Rk 115
Q4 Rk 119
Adj. Line Yards Rk 120
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 67

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Taylor Reed


169 295 1,690 57.3% 10 4 20 6.3% 5.0
Andy Summerlin

45 94 469 47.9% 0 2 5 5.1% 4.4
Jacob Karam^ 6'0, 205 Jr. *** (5.6)






William Gross 6'1, 170 Fr. *** (5.7)






^ Karam is a Texas Tech transfer and will be eligible this fall.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Billy Foster RB 132 479 3.6 1.3 6 -14.7
Artaves Gibson RB 6'1, 220 So. *** (5.5) 104 316 3.0 0.9 0 -31.5
Taylor Reed QB 6'3, 210 So. ** (5.4) 49 188 3.8 1.1 2 -6.4
Jerrell Rhodes RB 5'10, 215 Jr. *** (5.6) 30 152 5.1 1.5 2 +1.6
Joe Price RB


15 16 1.1 1.3 0 -5.5

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Tannar Rehrer WR 107 70 593 65.4% 27.6% 44.9% 5.3
Kevin Wright WR 6'4, 215 So. *** (5.5) 63 36 376 57.1% 16.3% 55.6% 4.6
Marcus Rucker WR 6'4, 185 Sr. *** (5.5) 45 20 195 44.4% 11.6% 48.9% 1.8
Reggie Travis WR 6'2, 190 So. ** (5.2) 35 18 146 51.4% 9.0% 48.6% 2.5
Billy Foster RB 39 22 299 56.4% 10.1% 38.5% 5.2
Keiwone Malone WR 6'0, 165 So. **** (5.8) 27 12 155 44.4% 7.0% 44.4% 3.6
Justin Henderson TE 6'2, 240 Jr. ** (5.2) 15 8 100 53.3% 3.9% 80.0% 3.1
Curtis Johnson WR


16 10 183 62.5% 4.1% 50.0% 11.0
Cam Baker WR 10 5 41 50.0% 2.6% 70.0% 2.0
Artaves Gibson RB 6'1, 220 So. *** (5.5) 12 9 46 75.0% 3.1% 41.7% 3.5
Alan Cross TE 6'1, 230 RSFr. NR






Jesse Milleson TE 6'4, 255 Jr. *** (5.5)






Daniel Hurd WR 6'2, 205 Fr. *** (5.5)






Kerwin Harrison TE 6'3, 225 Fr. *** (5.6)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Ron Leary RG 36 career starts, 2011 2nd All-CUSA
Jordan Devey LT 6'7, 315 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 career starts
Nick Chartain LG 6'5, 320 Jr. ** (5.2) 10 career starts
D'Angelo McCray RG 8 career starts
Chris Schuetz C 6'3, 275 Jr. ** (5.2) 7 career starts
Al Bond RT 6'5, 295 So. ** (5.2) 7 career starts
Michael Antonescu LG 6 career starts
A.J. Antonescu LG 6'3, 285 Jr. NR 5 career starts
Monte Golden C 6'2, 310 So. *** (5.5) 1 career start
Antonio Foster OL 6'4, 300 Jr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 117 118 113 120
RUSHING 97 115 94 119
PASSING 120 118 110 118
Standard Downs 116 106 119
Passing Downs 117 107 118
Redzone 113 107 115
Q1 Rk 79 1st Down Rk 110
Q2 Rk 119 2nd Down Rk 114
Q3 Rk 117 3rd Down Rk 119
Q4 Rk 111
Adj. Line Yards Rk 107
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 110

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Frank Trotter DE 12 53.5 7.7% 13 5 3 1 1
Johnnie Farms DT 6'2, 310 Jr. *** (5.7) 12 32.0 4.6% 8.5 2.5 1
Tommy Walker DE 12 27.0 3.9% 6 1.5 2
Dontari Poe NT 12 25.5 3.7% 8 1 3 1
Zach Gholson DE 6'4, 250 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 18.0 2.6% 5 1.5 3
Dasmine Cathey DE 12 16.0 2.3% 1 1 1
Daniel Thomas DE 10 12.0 1.7% 1
Martin Ifedi DT 6'3, 260 So. ** (5.2) 12 11.0 1.6% 1 1 1 1 1
Terry Redden DT 6'2, 285 So. *** (5.7) 9 3.5 0.5% 1
Anthony Brown DE 6'4, 260 Jr. *** (5.6)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Terrence Thomas LB 12 89.0 12.9% 5 1 1 4 1
Akeem Davis LB 6'1, 200 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 67.5 9.8% 8 3 4 3 4
Kenyata Johnson LB 6'1, 230 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 57.0 8.2% 1.5 1 1 1
Charles Harris LB 6'2, 215 So. *** (5.5) 12 26.5 3.8%
Chris Bertucci LB 6'0, 210 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 16.0 2.3% 1
Khiry Battle LB 6'0, 225 Sr. *** (5.5) 10 3.5 0.5%
Tank Jakes LB 6'0, 225 So. ** (5.4)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Mitch Huelsing FS 6'0, 200 Sr. NR 12 55.0 7.9% 1.5 0.5 2 2 4
Cannon Smith SS 6'0, 190 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 41.5 6.0% 6 1
Taurean Nixon CB 6'1, 180 Jr. *** (5.5) 10 31.0 4.5% 1 1 1
Lonnie Ballentine FS 6'4, 215 Jr. *** (5.7) 11 28.0 4.0% 1.5 1 1
Bobby McCain CB 5'11, 180 So. *** (5.6) 11 26.0 3.8% 1 1 4 1
Bakari Hollier CB 5'9, 190 So. ** (5.2) 9 18.0 2.6% 0.5 1 2 1
Lavaris Edwards CB 8 4.5 0.7% 2
Fritz Etienne DB 6'2, 210 So. ** (5.4)

Anthony Watson DB 6'1, 200 Jr. ** (5.4)

Dion Witty DB 5'11, 175 Fr. *** (5.6)




Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Tom Hornsey 6'4, 215 Jr. 95 42.0 5 7 23 31.6%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Paulo Henriques 5'10, 220 Sr. 45 64 8 17.8%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Paulo Henriques 5'10, 220 Sr. 21-25 6-7 85.7% 2-8 25.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Curtis Johnson KR 6'0, 190 Sr. 24 19.6 0
Bakari Hollier KR 5'9, 190 So. 21 18.1 0
Derek Smith PR 6'1, 210 Jr. 3 3.0 0
Curtis Johnson PR 6'0, 190 Sr. 2 5.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 93
Net Punting 89
Net Kickoffs 80
Touchback Pct 40
Field Goal Pct 111
Kick Returns Avg 118
Punt Returns Avg 49

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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