2012 Maryland Terrapins Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 96
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
5-Sep Miami 32-24 W 31.0 - 26.9 W
17-Sep West Virginia 31-37 L 31.3 - 27.4 W
24-Sep Temple 7-38 L 23.8 - 29.4 L
1-Oct Towson 28-3 W 25.3 - 30.5 L
8-Oct at Georgia Tech 16-21 L 24.6 - 24.3 W
15-Oct Clemson 45-56 L 28.3 - 32.0 L
22-Oct at Florida State 16-41 L 32.0 - 31.1 W
29-Oct Boston College 17-28 L 23.3 - 32.6 L
5-Nov Virginia 13-31 L 21.7 - 30.6 L
12-Nov vs. Notre Dame 21-45 L 30.1 - 30.2 L
19-Nov at Wake Forest 10-31 L 25.1 - 31.6 L
26-Nov at N.C. State 41-56 L 29.8 - 31.1 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 23.1 87 34.3 102
Adj. Points Per Game 27.2 65 29.8 96

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep William & Mary NR
8-Sep at Temple 77
15-Sep Connecticut 57
22-Sep at West Virginia 20
6-Oct Wake Forest 81
13-Oct at Virginia 52
20-Oct N.C. State 53
27-Oct at Boston College 45
3-Nov Georgia Tech 30
10-Nov at Clemson 21
17-Nov Florida State 7
24-Nov at North Carolina 33
Five-Year F/+ Rk 61
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 47
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +4 / -5.5
TO Luck/Game +4.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (7, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 67 71 64 79
RUSHING 42 41 35 48
PASSING 75 93 81 101
Standard Downs 63 47 77
Passing Downs 45 65 40
Redzone 103 113 94
Q1 Rk 92 1st Down Rk 50
Q2 Rk 48 2nd Down Rk 62
Q3 Rk 48 3rd Down Rk 72
Q4 Rk 27
Adj. Line Yards Rk 47
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 16

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Danny O'Brien 150 266 1,648 56.4% 7 10 7 2.6% 5.8
C.J. Brown 6'3, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 82 166 842 49.4% 7 6 8 4.6% 4.5
Ricky Schultz 6'0, 190 Sr. NR







Caleb Rowe 6'3, 211 Fr. *** (5.6)







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Davin Meggett TB 171 896 5.2 2.0 4 -2.5
Justus Pickett TB 5'10, 175 So. *** (5.7) 74 274 3.7 1.0 1 -7.7
C.J. Brown QB 6'3, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 71 636 9.0 4.8 5 +18.3
D.J. Adams RB


40 174 4.4 1.4 4 +5.1
Danny O'Brien QB 26 132 5.1 2.6 2 +2.0
Kwabena Ofori RB 5'9, 192 Sr. NR





Brandon Ross RB 5'10, 205 RSFr. ** (5.3)




Wes Brown RB 6'1, 200 Fr. **** (5.8)





Albert Reid RB 5'11, 195 Fr. *** (5.6)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Quintin McCree WR 78 40 485 51.3% 19.2% 66.7% 4.0
Kevin Dorsey WR 6'2, 205 Sr. **** (5.9) 72 45 573 62.5% 17.7% 62.5% 6.9
Kerry Boykins WR 6'0, 190 Sr. **** (5.8) 56 37 430 66.1% 13.8% 50.0% 7.2
Matt Furstenburg TE 6'4, 245 Sr. *** (5.6) 51 31 348 60.8% 12.5% 62.7% 5.8
Ronnie Tyler WR 33 18 158 54.5% 8.1% 45.5% 3.4
Davin Meggett TB 30 17 141 56.7% 7.4% 53.3% 3.5
Marcus Leak WR 6'0, 195 So. *** (5.6) 24 12 85 50.0% 5.9% 58.3% 2.1
Justus Pickett TB 5'10, 175 So. *** (5.7) 17 10 49 58.8% 4.2% 58.8% 2.2
Tony Logan WR 15 9 68 60.0% 3.7% 80.0% 2.4
Devonte Campbell TE 6'2, 255 Sr. **** (5.9) 9 4 56 44.4% 2.2% 77.8% 3.6
Devin Burns WR 6'3, 200 So. *** (5.6) 3 1 17 33.3% 0.7% 33.3% 5.7
Regis Whittington WR 5'11, 190 Jr. NR
James Bowman WR 6'0, 180 Jr. NR
Nigel King WR 6'3, 210 So. *** (5.7)
Stefon Diggs WR 6'0, 185 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Levern Jacobs WR 6'0, 180 Fr. *** (5.5)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
R.J. Dill RT 33 career starts
Andrew Gonnella LG 26 career starts
Bennett Fulper C 6'5, 295 Sr. ** (5.2) 22 career starts
Max Garcia LT 12 career starts
Josh Cary RG 6'5, 290 Jr. NR 9 career starts
Peter White RG 6'4, 330 Jr. **** (5.8) 6 career starts
Justin Gilbert RG 6'6, 300 Sr. ** (5.4) 6 career starts
Sal Conaboy C 6'3, 270 So. *** (5.7) 2 career starts
De'Onte Arnett LG 6'4, 275 Jr. **** (5.9) 1 career start
Nick Klemm LT 6'5, 290 Jr. ** (5.2)
Jake Wheeler RT 6'7, 275 So. ** (5.4)
Gary Harraka LG 6'4, 300 So. NR
Nate Clarke RG 6'3, 300 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Andrew Zeller LT 6'6, 295 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Stephen Grommer LG 6'5, 290 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Ryan Doyle RT 6'4, 295 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Mike Madaras OL 6'6, 280 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 108 87 108 78
RUSHING 111 112 114 102
PASSING 74 61 84 43
Standard Downs 85 103 77
Passing Downs 72 90 61
Redzone 85 70 93
Q1 Rk 76 1st Down Rk 89
Q2 Rk 53 2nd Down Rk 47
Q3 Rk 84 3rd Down Rk 113
Q4 Rk 107
Adj. Line Yards Rk 114
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 53

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Joe Vellano DE 6'2, 285 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 74.0 9.5% 7.5 2.5 4 2 2
Keith Bowers DE 6'2, 260 So. *** (5.5) 12 25.0 3.2% 6 2.5 1
David Mackall DE 8 21.5 2.8% 6 3 2
A.J. Francis DT 6'5, 305 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 21.0 2.7% 3 2 1 1
Maurice Hampton DT 10 17.0 2.2% 2.5 0.5
Andre Monroe DE 6'0, 265 So. ** (5.4) 9 12.5 1.6% 7.5 5
Ian Evans DE 6'2, 270 So. *** (5.5) 4 5.0 0.6% 0.5 0.5
Darius Kilgo NT 6'3, 300 So. *** (5.5) 5 4.5 0.6%
Cody Blue DE 4 3.5 0.4% 1
Alvin Thomas DE 11 2.5 0.3% 1
Isaiah Ross DE 6'2, 270 Jr. *** (5.5) 1 2.0 0.3% 1
Justin Anderson DE 6'5, 280 Jr. *** (5.5)
Roman Braglio DE 6'4, 260 Fr. *** (5.6)
Quinton Jefferson DE 6'4, 260 Fr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kenny Tate (2010^) LB 6'4, 220 Sr. **** (5.9) 13 79.0 10.4% 8.5 3.5 3 4 4 1
Demetrius Hartsfield MO 6'2, 240 Sr. *** (5.6) 9 79.0 10.1% 7 1 1 1
Darin Drakeford WILL 6'0, 240 Sr. *** (5.5) 8 55.0 7.1% 3 1 1 4 1
L.A. Goree MIKE 6'2, 235 So. *** (5.7) 12 45.0 5.8% 6 3.5 1 1 1 1
Alex Twine SAM 6'0, 225 So. ** (5.4) 11 33.5 4.3% 4.5 1 3 1
Mario Rowson LB 11 19.5 2.5% 3 1 1
Marcus Whitfield WILL 6'3, 230 Jr. *** (5.5) 8 8.5 1.1% 3.5 2.5 1 1
Cole Farrand MIKE 6'3, 245 So. ** (5.4) 9 2.5 0.3%
Clarence Murphy WILL 6'2, 265 So. *** (5.6) 2 1.5 0.2%
Bradley Johnson MO 6'1, 230 Jr. *** (5.7) 4 0.0 0.0% 1
Lukas Foreman SAM 6'3, 205 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Abner Logan LB 6'1, 212 Fr. **** (5.8)
Stefan Houston LB 6'3, 200 Fr. *** (5.6)

^ Tate played only four games in 2011.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Eric Franklin S 6'2, 205 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 85.0 10.9% 4.5 4 1
Cameron Chism CB 10 38.0 4.9% 2 3 4 1 2
Titus Till S 11 37.0 4.7% 0.5
Dexter McDougle CB 5'10, 190 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 36.5 4.7% 2.5 3 6 1 1
Matt Robinson S 6'3, 225 So. *** (5.5) 3 30.0 3.9% 2 2
A.J. Hendy S 6'1, 205 So. *** (5.7) 9 25.0 3.2% 1 1 1 1
Trenton Hughes CB 12 23.5 3.0% 1
Jeremiah Johnson CB 5'11, 170 So. *** (5.6) 9 4.5 0.6%
Austin Walker S 12 4.5 0.6% 1 1
Clarence Claiborne S 6'0, 210 Sr. NR 4 2.0 0.3%
Isaac Goins CB 6'0, 185 Jr. ** (5.4)
Undray Clark S 5'10, 190 RSFr. *** (5.6)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Nick Ferrara 6'0, 200 Jr. 57 39.5 2 19 18 64.9%
Michael Tart 6'2, 170 So. 3 34.0 0 2 0 66.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Nick Ferrara 6'0, 200 Jr. 51 62.8 3 5.9%
Michael Tart 6'2, 170 So. 4 66.5 1 25.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Nick Ferrara 6'0, 200 Jr. 27-28 11-16 68.8% 4-10 40.0%
Michael Tart 6'2, 170 So. 2-3 0-0 N/A 0-0 N/A
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Justus Pickett KR 5'10, 175 So. 30 18.9 0
Tony Logan KR 15 21.1 0
Ronnie Tyler KR 13 22.5 0
Tony Logan PR 16 6.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 102
Net Punting 52
Net Kickoffs 109
Touchback Pct 95
Field Goal Pct 97
Kick Returns Avg 99
Punt Returns Avg 100

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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