2012 Marshall Thundering Herd Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 87
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
4-Sep at West Virginia 13-34 L 22.2 - 27.2 L
10-Sep Southern Miss 26-20 W 28.4 - 21.5 W
17-Sep at Ohio 7-44 L 22.8 - 30.6 L
24-Sep Virginia Tech 10-30 L 21.0 - 30.4 L
1-Oct at Louisville 17-13 W 26.1 - 28.5 L
8-Oct at Central Florida 6-16 L 14.9 - 25.3 L
15-Oct Rice 24-20 W 23.3 - 30.8 L
22-Oct at Houston 28-63 L 33.4 - 33.1 W
29-Oct UAB 59-14 W 26.9 - 25.6 W
12-Nov at Tulsa 17-59 L 22.7 - 33.1 L
17-Nov at Memphis 23-22 W 21.4 - 27.9 L
26-Nov East Carolina 34-27 W 27.9 - 27.7 W
20-Dec vs Florida International 20-10 W 26.0 - 22.8 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 21.8 99 28.6 74
Adj. Points Per Game 24.4 111 28.0 64

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at West Virginia 21
8-Sep Western Carolina NR
15-Sep Ohio 61
22-Sep at Rice 112
29-Sep at Purdue 70
6-Oct Tulsa 47
20-Oct at Southern Miss 46
27-Oct Central Florida 49
3-Nov Memphis 117
10-Nov at UAB 115
17-Nov Houston 29
24-Nov at East Carolina 82
Five-Year F/+ Rk 89
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 58
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +2 / +0.7
TO Luck/Game 0.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (8, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 102 99 107 90
RUSHING 96 113 118 101
PASSING 72 61 59 66
Standard Downs 94 110 84
Passing Downs 93 93 86
Redzone 45 64 39
Q1 Rk 77 1st Down Rk 82
Q2 Rk 94 2nd Down Rk 102
Q3 Rk 82 3rd Down Rk 94
Q4 Rk 117
Adj. Line Yards Rk 97
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 76

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Rakeem Cato 6'1, 180 So. *** (5.5) 182 304 2,059 59.9% 15 11 22 6.7% 5.9
A.J. Graham


64 103 714 62.1% 7 4 5 4.6% 6.4
Blake Frohnapfel 6'6, 229 RSFr. ** (5.4)







Gunnar Holcombe 6'2, 185 Fr. *** (5.6)







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Tron Martinez RB 5'9, 202 Jr. ** (5.4) 160 649 4.1 1.2 3 -12.3
Travon Van RB 5'10, 200 So. **** (5.8) 143 551 3.9 1.7 3 -10.4
A.J. Graham QB 6'4, 218 Jr. *** (5.5) 35 258 7.4 2.6 3 +8.5
Rakeem Cato QB 6'1, 180 So. *** (5.5) 35 165 4.7 1.1 0 -3.2
Essray Taliaferro RB 5'8, 180 Jr. NR 26 92 3.5 0.5 0 -5.8

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Aaron Dobson WR-X 6'3, 204 Sr. ** (5.4) 76 49 668 64.5% 19.7% 57.9% 8.1
Antavious Wilson WR-Z 6'1, 191 Sr. NR 50 29 462 58.0% 13.0% 54.0% 7.1
Troy Evans WR-H 43 30 337 69.8% 11.2% 69.8% 8.2
Gator Hoskins TE 6'2, 238 Jr. ** (5.2) 32 14 123 43.8% 8.3% 50.0% 1.3
Jermaine Kelson WR-H 5'8, 178 Jr. ** (5.4) 31 23 208 74.2% 8.1% 61.3% 7.0
Travon Van RB 5'10, 200 So. **** (5.8) 29 21 171 72.4% 7.5% 37.9% 6.8
C.J. Crawford TE 6'2, 228 Jr. *** (5.7) 28 21 175 75.0% 7.3% 46.4% 7.2
Tron Martinez RB 5'9, 202 Jr. ** (5.4) 27 20 171 74.1% 7.0% 37.0% 6.3
Tommy Shuler WR-H 5'9, 182 So. *** (5.5) 22 14 122 63.6% 5.7% 72.7% 6.6
Eric Frohnapfel TE 6'6, 223 So. *** (5.5) 15 9 68 60.0% 3.9% 66.7% 3.2
Demetrius Evans
(2010-11^)
WR 6'2, 191 So. ** (5.2) 17 8 71 47.1% 2.2% 41.2% 4.2

Evans played just two games last season because of injury. His stats are above are his combined stats from 2010 and 2011.

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Ryan Tillman LT 46 career starts
C.J. Wood RT 38 career starts
Garrett Scott LG 6'4, 296 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 career starts
Chris Jasperse C 6'4, 296 So. NR 13 career starts
John Bruhin RG 12 career starts
Jordan Jeffries LT 6'7, 305 Jr. ** (5.1) 3 career starts
Cory Tenney RG 6'7, 298 Jr. ** (5.1) 2 career starts
Alex Schooler LG 6'6, 290 Jr. ** (5.3) 1 career start
Chris Bowers C


1 career start
Josh Lovell RT 6'6, 290 So. *** (5.6)
Sebastian Johansson RG 6'5, 307 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Channing Smith C 5'11, 276 RSFr. NR
Josh Murriel OL 6'5, 302 Jr. *** (5.5)
Billy Rone OL 6'4, 290 Jr. *** (5.5)
Gage Neimeyer OL 6'6, 305 Jr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 78 51 44 52
RUSHING 58 51 48 57
PASSING 96 46 49 42
Standard Downs 66 49 74
Passing Downs 57 65 50
Redzone 58 67 52
Q1 Rk 97 1st Down Rk 84
Q2 Rk 86 2nd Down Rk 71
Q3 Rk 24 3rd Down Rk 28
Q4 Rk 30
Adj. Line Yards Rk 36
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 25

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Vinny Curry DE 13 60.5 8.1% 22 11 1 7 1
Jeremiah Taylor DE 6'4, 250 Jr. NR 12 31.0 4.1% 7.5 3.5 1
Delvin Johnson NT 13 30.5 4.1% 10.5 2 1 1
Marques Aiken DT 6'4, 270 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 26.0 3.5% 5.5 1 2 1
Trevor Black DE


8 16.0 2.1% 4.5 2
Alex Bazzie DE 6'2, 235 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 15.0 2.0% 1 1
Brandon Sparrow DT 6'4, 280 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 14.5 1.9% 2 1 1
Ra'Shawde Myers DE 6'3, 226 So. ** (5.2) 13 5.0 0.7% 1.5 1
Brandon Bullock NT 11 5.0 0.7% 2.5 1
Ken Smith DT 6'4, 285 Jr. *** (5.5)



Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tyson Gale WLB 13 69.5 9.3% 12.5 1 1 4
George Carpenter WLB 13 63.0 8.4% 8.5 4 2 2 3
Kellen Harris MLB 13 38.0 5.1% 6 0.5 1
Jermaine Holmes MLB 5'11, 238 So. *** (5.5) 13 18.5 2.5% 2.5 1
Billy Mitchell SLB 6'3, 226 Jr. NR 13 17.0 2.3% 0.5 2 2
T.J. Ross WLB 6'0, 220 Jr. ** (5.4) 10 4.5 0.6% 0.5
Cortez Carter LB 6'0, 220 So. ** (5.4) 12 4.5 0.6%
Deon Meadows LB 5'11, 225 So. *** (5.5) 11 1.5 0.2%
Armonze Daniel LB 6'4, 232 RSFr. *** (5.7)



Kent Turene LB 6'3, 230 Fr. *** (5.5)



Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Omar Brown FS 13 92.0 12.3% 4.5 0 4 4 4
Devin Arrington SS 6'2, 209 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 59.0 7.9% 2.5 2 4 2
Monterius Lovett CB 5'11, 175 So. ** (5.1) 13 46.0 6.1% 2 3 2
Rashad Jackson CB 12 34.0 4.5% 4.5 4 9 2
Darryl Roberts CB 5'11, 177 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 31.0 4.1% 2 1 1 7
Phillip Warren SS


12 18.5 2.5% 1 2 1
Derek Mitchell S 6'2, 200 Jr. NR 13 17.5 2.3% 1
Keith Baxter CB 5'11, 190 So. *** (5.5) 6 2.5 0.4%


1
Evan McKelvey S 6'1, 205 So. ** (5.4) 6 2.5




Zach Dunston S 6'1, 199 Jr. *** (5.5) 6






Amos Leggett DB 6'0, 175 Fr. **** (5.9)

Andre Scott DB 5'11, 175 Fr. *** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Kase Whitehead 76 40.1 5 25 23 63.2%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Justin Haig 5'8, 182 So. 58 59.4 1 1.7%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Tyler Warner 32-32 10-11 90.9% 2-4 50.0%
Justin Haig 5'8, 182 So. 1-1 1-1 100.0% 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Andre Booker KR 5'10, 176 Sr. 33 24.8 0
Troy Evans KR 18 22.1 0
Andre Booker PR 5'10, 176 Sr. 18 10.8 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 77
Net Punting 59
Net Kickoffs 104
Touchback Pct 114
Field Goal Pct 35
Kick Returns Avg 48
Punt Returns Avg 21

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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