2012 Louisville Cardinals Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 44
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep Murray State 21-9 W 20.1 - 29.0 L
9-Sep Florida International 17-24 L 28.4 - 29.6 L
17-Sep at Kentucky 24-17 W 31.1 - 29.2 W
1-Oct Marshall 13-17 L 24.4 - 28.9 L
8-Oct at North Carolina 7-14 L 23.0 - 24.7 L
15-Oct at Cincinnati 16-25 L 25.1 - 29.2 L
21-Oct Rutgers 16-14 W 34.1 - 29.0 W
29-Oct Syracuse 27-10 W 27.6 - 21.1 W
5-Nov at West Virginia 38-35 W 32.7 - 30.7 W
12-Nov Pittsburgh 14-21 L 27.2 - 31.5 L
19-Nov at Connecticut 34-20 W 26.3 - 27.4 L
25-Nov at South Florida 34-24 W 31.7 - 25.2 W
27-Dec vs N.C. State 24-31 L 26.6 - 29.2 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 21.9 98 20.1 17
Adj. Points Per Game 27.6 56 28.1 66

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
2-Sep Kentucky 83
9-Sep Missouri State NR
15-Sep North Carolina 32
22-Sep at Florida International 56
29-Sep at Southern Miss 46
13-Oct at Pittsburgh 41
20-Oct South Florida 25
26-Oct Cincinnati 44
3-Nov Temple 73
10-Nov at Syracuse 78
24-Nov Connecticut 53
29-Nov at Rutgers 40
Five-Year F/+ Rk 59
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 34
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -1 / +3.3
TO Luck/Game -1.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (8, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -1.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 103 60 60 61
RUSHING 93 62 64 64
PASSING 74 56 51 56
Standard Downs 64 59 74
Passing Downs 55 75 45
Redzone 11 15 10
Q1 Rk 30 1st Down Rk 105
Q2 Rk 56 2nd Down Rk 29
Q3 Rk 93 3rd Down Rk 29
Q4 Rk 65
Adj. Line Yards Rk 57
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 97

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Teddy Bridgewater 6'2, 193 So. **** (5.8) 191 296 2,129 64.5% 14 12 33 10.0% 5.9
Will Stein 5'10, 176 Sr. NR 52 84 620 61.9% 5 1 8 8.7% 6.2
Luke Brohm 6'1, 200 RSFr. NR






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Dominique Brown RB 6'2, 221 Jr. **** (5.8) 140 533 3.8 1.4 4 -3.4
Victor Anderson RB 114 539 4.7 1.8 3 -2.3
Jeremy Wright RB 5'11, 199 Jr. ** (5.4) 73 334 4.6 1.5 1 -1.9
Teddy Bridgewater QB 6'2, 193 So. **** (5.8) 56 247 4.4 1.2 4 +4.1
Will Stein QB 5'10, 176 Sr. NR 16 57 3.6 1.1 0 -2.9
Senorise Perry RB 6'0, 201 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 27 2.3 1.7 1 +0.7
Corvin Lamb RB 5'9, 207 RSFr. *** (5.6)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Eli Rogers WR-H 5'10, 184 So. **** (5.8) 58 41 454 70.7% 16.4% 60.3% 7.9
Josh Chichester TE 55 28 393 50.9% 15.6% 65.5% 4.8
Michaelee Harris WR-Z 6'0, 198 So. **** (5.9) 46 35 438 76.1% 13.0% 67.4% 11.1
Josh Bellamy WR-H 35 24 280 68.6% 9.9% 68.6% 7.6
Victor Anderson RB 32 28 232 87.5% 9.1% 40.6% 8.6
DeVante Parker WR-X 6'2, 180 So. *** (5.7) 29 18 291 62.1% 8.2% 37.9% 10.2
Andrell Smith WR-X 6'4, 209 Sr. ** (5.3) 22 11 207 50.0% 6.2% 40.9% 6.5
Dominique Brown RB 6'2, 221 Jr. **** (5.8) 20 16 98 80.0% 5.7% 45.0% 6.0
Jarrett Davis WR-Z 5'10, 173 Jr. ** (5.4) 20 12 102 60.0% 5.7% 50.0% 3.9
Scott Radcliff WR-H 5'10, 182 Sr. NR 11 8 83 72.7% 3.1% 63.6% 7.4
Chris White TE 6'4, 243 So. NR 6 5 73 83.3% 1.7% 83.3% 12.2
Nate Nord TE 6'5, 230 Jr. ** (5.4) 4 4 24 100.0% 1.1% 75.0% 6.0
Damian Copeland WR 6'1, 186 Jr. ** (5.3)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Mario Benavides C 6'4, 300 Sr. *** (5.6) 34 career starts
Alex Kupper LT 6'3, 295 Sr. NR 14 career starts
Jake Smith RG 6'3, 315 So. *** (5.5) 13 career starts
Ryan Kessling RT 13 career starts
John Miller LG 6'2, 295 So. *** (5.6) 10 career starts
Hector Hernandez LT 3 career starts
Jamon Brown LG 6'4, 305 So. *** (5.6) 2 career starts
Kamram Joyer LG 6'3, 283 Jr. *** (5.5) 1 career start
Aaron Epps LT 6'5, 265 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Hunter Stout RG 6'4, 291 Jr. ** (5.2)
Chris Acosta RT 6'3, 275 So. ** (5.4)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 23 68 73 74
RUSHING 10 54 66 45
PASSING 68 90 83 87
Standard Downs 61 79 48
Passing Downs 84 72 91
Redzone 51 40 60
Q1 Rk 50 1st Down Rk 41
Q2 Rk 104 2nd Down Rk 70
Q3 Rk 20 3rd Down Rk 102
Q4 Rk 75
Adj. Line Yards Rk 42
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 43

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Roy Philon DT 6'3, 272 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 28.0 4.3% 6 1.5 1 1
William Savoy DE 13 21.0 3.2% 8.5 5 1
B.J. Dubose DE 6'4, 257 So. *** (5.7) 13 18.0 2.8% 3.5 2
Randy Salmon DT


9 16.0 2.4% 5 1 1
Greg Scruggs DE 9 15.5 2.4% 6 4 1
B.J. Butler DE 6'2, 275 Jr. *** (5.7) 9 12.5 1.9% 2 1.5
Jamaine Brooks DT 6'4, 318 So. ** (5.1) 10 11.0 1.7% 3 0.5 2
Brandon Dunn NT 6'3, 295 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 11.0 1.7% 1.5
Marcus Smith DE 6'4, 255 Jr. *** (5.6) 10 10.5 1.6% 6.5 5.5 1 2
Lorenzo Mauldin DE 6'4, 225 So. *** (5.6) 13 3.5 0.5% 0.5
Malcolm Mitchell DE


5 3.0 0.5% 1 1
Sheldon Rankins DE 6'3, 260 Fr. *** (5.7)






Larry Jefferson DE 6'5, 218 Fr. *** (5.7)






Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Dexter Heyman MLB 13 73.0 11.2% 16 4.5 3 1 1
Preston Brown SLB 6'2, 258 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 68.0 10.4% 5 1.5
Daniel Brown WLB 6'1, 219 Sr. NR 13 31.5 4.8% 4 1 2
Deionterez Mount SLB 6'5, 215 So. *** (5.6) 9 8.0 1.2% 2.5 1.5
Deon Rogers WLB 6'2, 200 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 4.5 0.7%
Mike Privott MLB 6'0, 224 Jr. *** (5.6) 0.0 0.0%
George Durant SLB 6'0, 229 Jr. ** (5.2) 10 2.0 0.3% 1 1
Nick Dawson LB 6'3, 228 Fr. **** (5.9)








Keith Brown WLB 6'1, 229 Fr. **** (5.8)

James Burgess MLB 6'0, 211 Fr. *** (5.6)


Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Hakeem Smith SS 6'1, 183 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 71.5 10.9% 4 1 9 1 3
Adrian Bushell CB 5'11, 190 Sr. **** (5.9) 10 44.0 6.7% 2.5 1 3 1
Mike Evans FS 13 42.5 6.5% 2.5 2 3 1
Calvin Pryor FS 6'1, 190 So. *** (5.7) 13 37.0 5.7% 3 1 2 5 2 2
Andrew Johnson CB 5'10, 178 So. **** (5.8) 11 21.0 3.2% 1.5 4 1
Shenard Holton S


7 21.0 3.2% 1.5 0.5 1
Anthony Conner CB 7 19.0 2.9% 3 1 1 1 1
Terell Floyd CB 5'10, 170 So. *** (5.6) 11 11.5 1.8% 1
Stephan Robinson CB 5'8, 175 So. *** (5.6) 7 7.5 1.1% 1 1
Terence Simien SS 9 7.5 1.1% 1 1
Kamal Hogan FS 6'0, 209 So. *** (5.7)







Jordan Paschal CB 5'8, 180 So. *** (5.5)







Jermaine Reve SS 6'0, 180 So. *** (5.5)







Charles Gaines CB 5'11, 176 RSFr. *** (5.7)







Gerod Holliman DB 6'0, 185 Fr. **** (5.8)







Devontre Parnell DB 5'11, 163 Fr. *** (5.7)







Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Josh Bleser 45 38.4 3 18 17 77.8%
Chris Philpott 25 36.9 0 11 6 68.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Chris Philpott 55 67.1 15 27.3%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Chris Philpott 33-35 8-10 80.0% 4-8 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jeremy Wright KR 5'11, 199 Jr. 18 23.6 0
Adrian Bushell KR 5'11, 190 Sr. 9 30.7 1
Scott Radcliff PR 5'10, 182 Sr. 9 4.4 0
Eli Rogers PR 5'10, 184 So. 8 6.8 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 34
Net Punting 63
Net Kickoffs 51
Touchback Pct 19
Field Goal Pct 70
Kick Returns Avg 28
Punt Returns Avg 102

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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