2012 Kent State Golden Flashes Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 92
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Alabama 7-48 L 18.5 - 30.3 L
10-Sep UL-Lafayette 12-20 L 14.8 - 9.0 W
17-Sep at Kansas State 0-37 L 19.4 - 29.7 L
24-Sep South Alabama 33-25 W 19.7 - 31.6 L
1-Oct at Ohio 10-17 L 18.4 - 23.2 L
8-Oct at Northern Illinois 10-40 L 14.7 - 25.9 L
15-Oct Miami (Ohio) 3-9 L 19.8 - 16.2 W
29-Oct Bowling Green 27-15 W 26.0 - 27.1 L
4-Nov Central Michigan 24-21 W 28.4 - 29.6 L
12-Nov at Akron 35-3 W 28.2 - 24.1 W
19-Nov Eastern Michigan 28-22 W 22.7 - 24.3 L
25-Nov at Temple 16-34 L 32.5 - 24.2 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 17.1 114 24.3 49
Adj. Points Per Game 21.9 116 24.6 21

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug Towson NR
8-Sep at Kentucky 83
19-Sep at Buffalo 107
29-Sep Ball State 89
6-Oct at Eastern Michigan 91
13-Oct at Army 95
20-Oct Western Michigan 69
27-Oct at Rutgers 40
3-Nov Akron 123
10-Nov at Miami (Ohio) 77
17-Nov at Bowling Green 64
23-Nov Ohio 61
Five-Year F/+ Rk 97
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 114
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +12 / +9.8
TO Luck/Game 0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (8, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 119 117 118 115
RUSHING 107 111 110 110
PASSING 110 116 114 114
Standard Downs 119 118 117
Passing Downs 112 114 112
Redzone 59 92 43
Q1 Rk 117 1st Down Rk 118
Q2 Rk 106 2nd Down Rk 108
Q3 Rk 115 3rd Down Rk 111
Q4 Rk 110
Adj. Line Yards Rk 87
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 91

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Spencer Keith 6'3, 221 Sr. NR 166 325 1,682 51.1% 11 8 22 6.3% 4.4
Cedric McCloud


6 22 63 27.3% 0 0 8 26.7% -0.1
David Fisher 6'1, 215 Jr. *** (5.6)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Trayion Durham TB 6'0, 260 So. *** (5.5) 186 630 3.4 0.7 4 -23.5
Jacquise Terry TB 74 360 4.9 1.7 2 -1.0
Dri Archer TB 5'8, 164 Jr. ** (4.9) 40 140 3.5 1.3 1 -8.0
Anthony Meray TB 5'7, 191 So. ** (5.3) 66 244 3.7 1.2 2 -6.7
Spencer Keith QB 6'3, 215 Sr. NR 37 195 5.3 2.6 3 +1.0
Robert Hollomon TB


14 94 6.7 2.5 0 -1.6
Julian Durden TB 5'8, 165 Fr. *** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Sam Kirkland WR-A 77 32 285 41.6% 23.1% 50.6% 1.2
Tyshon Goode WR-Z 6'1, 185 Sr. *** (5.5) 51 24 316 47.1% 15.3% 54.9% 3.4
Matthew Hurdle WR-X 6'3, 185 Sr. ** (5.3) 46 20 266 43.5% 13.8% 47.8% 2.7
Justin Thompson TE 44 32 222 72.7% 13.2% 54.5% 5.1
Chris Gilbert WR-A 42 27 400 64.3% 12.6% 59.5% 8.9
Tim Erjavec FB 6'1, 232 Jr. NR 24 10 82 41.7% 7.2% 62.5% 0.7
Eric Adeyemi WR-A 6'0, 182 Sr. ** (5.0) 19 5 42 26.3% 5.7% 57.9% -0.2
Jacquise Terry TB 17 13 87 76.5% 5.1% 47.1% 6.2
Trayion Durham TB 6'0, 260 So. *** (5.5) 6 2 14 33.3% 1.8% 50.0% -0.4
James Brooks WR 5'10, 196 Fr. *** (5.6)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Brian Winters LT 6'6, 294 Sr. ** (5.2) 36 career starts, 2011 2nd All-MAC
Chris Anzevino C 48 career starts
Josh Kline LG 6'3, 304 Sr. ** (5.1) 24 career starts
Kent Cleveland RT 6'4, 300 Sr. ** (5.0) 22 career starts
Tyler Arend RG 6'5, 295 Jr. ** (5.2) 9 career starts
Terrell Johnson RG 6'4, 299 So. ** (5.2) 5 career starts
Tom Pizzurro LG 6'3, 300 So. ** (5.4) 3 career starts
Phil Huff C 6'3, 266 Jr. NR 2 career starts
Max Plunkett LT 6'7, 309 Jr. ** (5.2)
Jake Witucki OL 6'5, 283 Fr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 21 20 25 17
RUSHING 33 31 29 36
PASSING 26 18 25 14
Standard Downs 24 33 17
Passing Downs 41 47 36
Redzone 21 28 23
Q1 Rk 20 1st Down Rk 21
Q2 Rk 39 2nd Down Rk 73
Q3 Rk 38 3rd Down Rk 8
Q4 Rk 27
Adj. Line Yards Rk 29
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 18

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jake Dooley LEO 6'3, 238 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 34.0 4.1% 10.5 5 3 1
Roosevelt Nix DT 6'0, 244 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 32.0 3.9% 17 4.5 3 3 1
Dana Brown, Jr. NT 6'0, 281 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 20.0 2.4% 4.5 1.5 1 1
Lee Stalker DE 12 19.5 2.4% 4 2 2
Zack Hitchens LEO 6'2, 237 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 15.5 1.9% 3.5 2 1
Mark Fackler DE 6'3, 244 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 14.5 1.8% 5.5 3 2
Richard Gray DT 6'2, 277 Jr. ** (5.2) 11 8.5 1.0% 2 1 1
Ishmaa'ily Kitchen NT 9 8.0 1.0% 2.5 1

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Luke Batton MIKE 6'0, 224 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 76.0 9.2% 7 3 1
C.J. Malauulu WILL 6'1, 235 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 61.5 7.4% 9.5 3.5 3 1 1
Kyle Reese SAM 12 23.5 2.8% 4.5 1 2
Andre Parker LB 6'1, 215 So. ** (5.2) 9 7.0 0.8% 1 2

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Josh Pleasant CB 12 47.0 5.7% 2 0.5 2 11
Calvin Tiggle FS 5'10, 195 So. *** (5.5) 10 46.5 5.6% 2 3 1 3
Luke Wollet SS 6'1, 193 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 46.5 5.6% 4 4 2 1 2
Sidney Saulter CB 6'0, 178 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 36.0 4.3% 3.5 3 3
Darius Polk CB 6'0, 183 Jr. *** (5.7) 10 29.5 3.6% 1 1 1 2 2
Leon Green FS 5'11, 204 Sr. ** (5.3) 10 22.5 2.7% 1 1 1
Norman Wolfe CB 8 17.0 2.1% 3 1
Chevin Meadows CB 5'11, 188 So. ** (5.4) 11 13.0 1.6% 1 1
Dylan Farrington DB 6'1, 184 So. *** (5.6) 11 7.0 0.8%
Devante' Strickland S 6'1, 217 So. ** (5.2) 9 6.5 0.8% 1 1
Adam Maxie DB 6'1, 172 Fr. *** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Matt Rinehart 83 42.8 11 7 20 32.5%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Freddy Cortez 6'0, 200 Sr. 48 63.4 15 31.3%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Freddy Cortez 6'0, 200 Sr. 18-23 9-9 100.0% 4-8 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Eric Adeyemi KR 6'0, 180 Sr. 21 19.3 0
Rob Hollomon KR 5'9, 165 So. 17 23.1 0
Eric Adeyemi PR 6'0, 180 Sr. 10 6.2 0
Luke Wollet PR 6'1, 193 Jr. 5 8.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 52
Net Punting 115
Net Kickoffs 60
Touchback Pct 14
Field Goal Pct 35
Kick Returns Avg 90
Punt Returns Avg 82

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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