2012 Iowa Hawkeyes Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 42
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Tennessee Tech 34-7 W 27.5 - 30.3 L
10-Sep at Iowa State 41-44 L 26.6 - 32.5 L
17-Sep Pittsburgh 31-27 W 31.5 - 30.7 W
24-Sep UL-Monroe 45-17 W 39.1 - 28.5 W
8-Oct at Penn State 3-13 L 24.4 - 29.4 L
15-Oct Northwestern 41-31 W 36.1 - 27.5 W
22-Oct Indiana 45-24 W 33.4 - 32.4 W
29-Oct at Minnesota 21-22 L 27.5 - 32.6 L
5-Nov Michigan 24-16 W 30.7 - 22.8 W
12-Nov Michigan State 21-37 L 27.5 - 28.9 L
19-Nov at Purdue 31-21 W 27.8 - 24.8 W
25-Nov at Nebraska 7-20 L 22.0 - 26.8 L
30-Dec Oklahoma 14-31 L 24.2 - 24.9 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 27.5 58 23.8 46
Adj. Points Per Game 29.1 39 28.6 78

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep vs. Northern Illinois 57
8-Sep Iowa State 85
15-Sep Northern Iowa NR
22-Sep Central Michigan 84
29-Sep Minnesota 96
13-Oct at Michigan State 19
20-Oct Penn State 37
27-Oct at Northwestern 68
3-Nov at Indiana 98
10-Nov Purdue 70
17-Nov at Michigan 12
23-Nov Nebraska 24
Five-Year F/+ Rk 24
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 33
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +1 / +6.8
TO Luck/Game -2.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (6, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** -2.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 76 38 39 40
RUSHING 79 44 31 53
PASSING 59 35 45 29
Standard Downs 35 31 37
Passing Downs 28 44 25
Redzone 13 10 16
Q1 Rk 54 1st Down Rk 48
Q2 Rk 46 2nd Down Rk 15
Q3 Rk 35 3rd Down Rk 52
Q4 Rk 13
Adj. Line Yards Rk 21
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 64

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
James Vandenberg 6'3, 212 Sr. *** (5.5) 237 404 3,022 58.7% 25 7 29 6.7% 6.5
A.J. Derby


3 6 30 50.0% 0 0 0 0.0% 5.0
Jake Rudock 6'3, 200 RSFr. *** (5.6)







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Marcus Coker RB 280 1,384 4.9 1.5 15 +4.6
James Vandenberg QB 6'3, 212 Sr. *** (5.5) 49 269 5.5 1.6 3 +4.4
Jordan Canzeri RB 5'9, 180 So. ** (5.2) 31 114 3.7 1.1 0 -1.8
De'Andre Johnson RB 5'8, 200 So. *** (5.5) 18 79 4.4 1.1 0 -1.6
Mika'il McCall RB 11 65 5.9 2.2 0 -2.2
Damon Bullock RB 6'0, 195 So. ** (5.2) 10 20 2.0 0.3 0 -2.1
Greg Garmon RB 6'2, 195 Fr. **** (5.8)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Marvin McNutt, Jr. WR 139 82 1,315 59.0% 34.7% 59.7% 8.0
Keenan Davis WR 6'3, 215 Sr. **** (5.9) 86 50 713 58.1% 21.4% 58.1% 6.8
Kevonte Martin-Manley WR 6'0, 205 So. ** (5.4) 49 30 323 61.2% 12.2% 63.3% 5.5
Marcus Coker RB 31 21 157 67.7% 7.7% 61.3% 5.2
Zach Derby TE 6'3, 240 Sr. NR 27 12 117 44.4% 6.7% 63.0% 1.7
C.J. Fiedorowicz TE 6'7, 265 Jr. **** (5.9) 21 16 167 76.2% 5.2% 71.4% 8.9
Brad Herman TE 21 8 95 38.1% 5.2% 66.7% 0.4
Jordan Canzeri RB 5'9, 180 So. ** (5.2) 6 6 28 100.0% 1.5% 66.7% 6.2
Steven Staggs WR 6'3, 195 Sr. ** (5.2) 6 5 45 83.3% 1.5% 50.0% 9.2
Jason White RB 5 3 26 60.0% 1.2% 60.0% 4.0
Jordan Cotton WR 6'1, 185 Jr. *** (5.7) 1 1 4 100.0% 0.2% 100.0% 4.0
Don Shumpert WR 6'3, 190 Jr. *** (5.7)
Jacob Hillyer WR 6'4, 205 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Riley Reiff LT 37 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big Ten
Adam Gettis RG 16 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Big Ten
James Ferentz C 6'2, 284 Sr. *** (5.6) 26 career starts
Markus Zusevics RT 26 career starts
Matt Tobin LG 6'6, 290 Sr. NR 10 career starts
Andrew Donnal LT 6'7, 302 So. **** (5.8)
Brandon Scherff LT 6'5, 310 So. *** (5.7)
Conor Boffeli C 6'5, 290 Jr. *** (5.5)
Woody Orne RG
Brett Van Sloten RT 6'7, 292 Jr. ** (5.4)
Nolan MacMillan RT 6'6, 290 Jr. *** (5.5)
Drew Clark LG 6'4, 288 Jr. *** (5.5)
Austin Blythe RG 6'3, 285 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Ryan Ward OL 6'6, 270 Fr. **** (5.8)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 60 61 62 57
RUSHING 62 34 50 26
PASSING 58 92 82 92
Standard Downs 63 67 62
Passing Downs 81 83 81
Redzone 65 61 63
Q1 Rk 49 1st Down Rk 60
Q2 Rk 42 2nd Down Rk 45
Q3 Rk 76 3rd Down Rk 104
Q4 Rk 95
Adj. Line Yards Rk 58
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 94

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Mike Daniels DT 13 49.5 6.2% 13.5 9 1
Broderick Binns DE 13 46.0 5.7% 12 5 1 8 1 2
Thomas Nardo DT 10 45.5 5.7% 6.5 0.5 2 1
Lebron Daniel DE 11 23.0 2.9% 1 1 2
Dominic Alvis DL 6'4, 265 Jr. ** (5.0) 9 23.0 2.9% 3.5 1.5 1 1
Steve Bigach DT 6'3, 282 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 16.5 2.1% 1 1 1
Joe Forgy DE 10 6.5 0.8% 1.5
Joe Gaglione DE 6'4, 264 Sr. ** (5.2) 10 4.5 0.6% 0.5
Carl Davis DT 6'5, 310 So. *** (5.6) 6 1.0 0.1%
Louis Trinca-Pasat DT 6'3, 270 So. *** (5.6) 1 0.5 0.1%
Mike Hardy DE 6'5, 270 So. *** (5.6)
Darian Cooper DT 6'2, 280 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Riley McMinn DE 6'7, 245 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Melvin Spears DE 6'2, 255 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Dean Tsopanides DT 6'2, 240 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Faith Ekakitie DE 6'2, 255 Fr. **** (5.8)
Jaleel Johnson DT 6'2, 277 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Christian Kirksey OLB 6'2, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 86.0 10.7% 5 1 1 3 2 1
James Morris WLB 6'2, 227 Jr. *** (5.7) 12 81.0 10.1% 3.5 1 1
Tyler Nielsen MLB 12 53.5 6.7% 4 1 1 1 2
Anthony Hitchens WLB 6'1, 224 Jr. ** (5.4) 8 19.5 2.4% 1
Marcus Collins WLB 6'0, 215 So. ** (5.2) 10 6.0 0.7%
Quinton Alston MLB 6'1, 220 So. *** (5.7) 6 5.5 0.7% 0.5
Cole Fisher WLB 6'2, 218 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Travis Perry OLB 6'3, 230 RSFr. ** (5.2)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jordan Bernstine SS 12 66.5 8.3% 3 1 2 1 1
Tanner Miller FS 6'2, 201 Jr. ** (5.1) 13 64.0 8.0% 3 3 3 1
Micah Hyde CB 6'1, 190 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 60.5 7.5% 1.5 3 8 1
Shaun Prater CB 13 42.0 5.2% 1 1 1 3 4
Tom Donatell S 6'2, 205 Sr. NR 8 17.0 2.1% 1
Greg Castillo CB 5'11, 182 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 12.5 1.6% 1
Collin Sleeper SS 6'2, 200 Sr. NR 11 11.5 1.4%
B.J. Lowery CB 5'11, 185 Jr. *** (5.6) 8 10.5 1.3% 3
Nico Law S 6'1, 195 So. *** (5.5) 13 9.0 1.1%
Jordan Lomax CB 5'10, 190 So. *** (5.5) 11 5.5 0.7%
John Lowdermilk S 6'2, 195 So. ** (5.3) 11 3.5 0.4%
Jack Swanson FS 5'11, 200 Sr. ** (5.3) 6 2.0 0.2%

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Eric Guthrie 53 41.2 4 22 18 75.5%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Mike Meyer 6'2, 185 Jr. 66 63 4 6.1%
Trent Mossbrucker 6'0, 204 Sr. 2 36.5 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Mike Meyer 6'2, 185 Jr. 44-44 9-11 81.8% 5-9 55.6%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jordan Bernstine KR 30 23.8 0
Kevonte Martin-Manley KR 6'0, 205 So. 4 20.5 0
Jordan Canzeri KR 5'9, 172 So. 4 19.5 0
Micah Hyde PR 6'1, 185 Sr. 13 8.2 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 58
Net Punting 25
Net Kickoffs 78
Touchback Pct 101
Field Goal Pct 57
Kick Returns Avg 55
Punt Returns Avg 64

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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