2012 Illinois Fighting Illini Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 62
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Arkansas State 33-15 W 36.2 - 25.8 W
10-Sep South Dakota State 56-3 W 34.4 - 9.5 W
17-Sep Arizona State 17-14 W 24.3 - 23.8 W
24-Sep Western Michigan 23-20 W 26.3 - 23.7 W
1-Oct Northwestern 38-35 W 27.8 - 28.7 L
8-Oct at Indiana 41-20 W 28.3 - 25.2 W
15-Oct Ohio State 7-17 L 25.8 - 26.1 L
22-Oct at Purdue 14-21 L 24.2 - 25.3 L
29-Oct at Penn State 7-10 L 20.9 - 17.7 W
12-Nov Michigan 14-31 L 22.0 - 27.6 L
19-Nov Wisconsin 17-28 L 28.8 - 24.4 W
26-Nov at Minnesota 7-27 L 16.3 - 29.9 L
31-Dec UCLA 20-14 W 20.1 - 21.7 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 22.6 91 19.6 15
Adj. Points Per Game 25.8 92 23.8 15

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Western Michigan 69
8-Sep at Arizona State 60
15-Sep Charleston Southern NR
22-Sep Louisiana Tech 52
29-Sep Penn State 37
6-Oct at Wisconsin 18
13-Oct at Michigan 12
27-Oct Indiana 98
3-Nov at Ohio State 20
10-Nov Minnesota 96
17-Nov Purdue 70
24-Nov at Northwestern 68
Five-Year F/+ Rk 46
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 54
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -6 / -0.6
TO Luck/Game -2.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 85 102 95 110
RUSHING 41 102 101 99
PASSING 91 96 72 109
Standard Downs 100 82 108
Passing Downs 58 55 65
Redzone 43 43 52
Q1 Rk 109 1st Down Rk 101
Q2 Rk 112 2nd Down Rk 61
Q3 Rk 84 3rd Down Rk 90
Q4 Rk 19
Adj. Line Yards Rk 78
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 111

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Nathan Scheelhaase 6'3, 195 Jr. **** (5.8) 184 291 2,110 63.2% 13 8 34 10.5% 5.7
Reilly O'Toole 6'4, 220 So. *** (5.7) 40 67 270 59.7% 1 4 1 1.5% 4.0
Chase Haslett 6'1, 195 RSFr. NR







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Nathan Scheelhaase QB 6'3, 195 Jr. **** (5.8) 157 896 5.7 2.0 6 +4.8
Jason Ford RB 155 583 3.8 0.8 7 -13.4
Donovonn Young RB 6'0, 215 So. *** (5.5) 87 451 5.2 2.2 6 +2.4
Troy Pollard RB 66 475 7.2 3.4 2 +5.3
Josh Ferguson RB 5'10, 180 RSFr. *** (5.5) 14 52 3.7 0.9 0 -1.0
Reilly O'Toole QB 12 48 4.0 0.6 0 -1.7
Miles Osei QB 6'0, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 4 29 7.3 3.6 0 -1.2
Zach Becker RB 6'3, 250 Sr. NR





Josh Ferguson RB 5'10, 180 RSFr. *** (5.5)





Dami Ayoola RB 5'10, 201 Fr. *** (5.7)





Devin Church RB 5'8, 190 Fr. *** (5.6)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
A.J. Jenkins WR 144 90 1,276 62.5% 42.1% 59.0% 8.1
Spencer Harris WR 6'3, 195 Jr. ** (5.4) 44 26 226 59.1% 12.9% 59.1% 4.1
Jon Davis TE 6'3, 230 So. *** (5.7) 32 22 189 68.8% 9.4% 78.1% 6.7
Darius Millines WR 5'11, 185 Jr. *** (5.7) 26 19 216 73.1% 7.6% 46.2% 7.7
Ryan Lankford WR 6'0, 175 Jr. *** (5.5) 24 12 108 50.0% 7.0% 66.7% 3.8
Jason Ford RB 21 19 130 90.5% 6.1% 52.4% 7.7
Evan Wilson TE 6'6, 250 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 9 89 75.0% 3.5% 58.3% 8.0
Donovonn Young RB 6'0, 215 So. *** (5.5) 11 8 15 72.7% 3.2% 63.6% 1.2
Troy Pollard RB 8 7 23 87.5% 2.3% 75.0% 2.8
Eddie Viliunas TE 6'4, 250 Sr. NR 5 4 61 80.0% 1.5% 80.0% 13.1
Matt LaCosse TE 6'6, 225 So. *** (5.6) 4 1 11 25.0% 1.2% 25.0% 2.8

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Jeff Allen LT 47 career starts
Graham Pocic C 6'7, 305 Sr. **** (5.8) 26 career starts
Hugh Thornton LG 6'5, 310 Sr. *** (5.7) 25 career starts
Jack Cornell RG 19 career starts
Michael Heitz RT 6'5, 295 So. *** (5.6) 9 career starts
Simon Cvijanovic LT 6'5, 285 So. ** (5.3) 4 career starts
Tyler Sands RG 6'5, 305 Sr. *** (5.7) 2 career starts
Alex Hill LG 6'3, 325 So. *** (5.6) 2 career starts
Jake Feldmeyer C 6'4, 280 Jr. ** (5.4)
Tyler Sands LG 6'5, 305 Sr. *** (5.7)
Scott McDowell LT 6'5, 290 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Ted Karras RG 6'4, 290 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Pat Flavin RT 6'7, 260 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Joe Spencer OL 6'4, 270 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 7 11 11 11
RUSHING 26 11 11 14
PASSING 3 13 16 12
Standard Downs 9 20 4
Passing Downs 25 6 42
Redzone 23 23 25
Q1 Rk 9 1st Down Rk 5
Q2 Rk 10 2nd Down Rk 16
Q3 Rk 16 3rd Down Rk 43
Q4 Rk 45
Adj. Line Yards Rk 9
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 2

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Michael Buchanan DE 6'6, 240 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 45.5 6.8% 13.5 7.5 1 1 1
Akeem Spence NG 6'1, 305 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 43.5 6.5% 5.5 1.5 1 1
Whitney Mercilus DE 13 42.5 6.3% 22.5 16 1 9 1
Glenn Foster DT 6'4, 260 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 21.0 3.1% 4 0.5 1 3
Justin Staples DE 6'4, 235 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 10.0 1.5% 1 1 2
Tim Kynard DE 6'3, 260 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 6.5 1.0% 3 1
Brandon Denmark DE


10 4.5 0.7%
Wisdom Onyegbule DT 13 4.0 0.6% 1.5 1 1
Austin Teitsma DT 6'2, 265 So. ** (5.4) 7 2.5 0.4% 0.5 0.5
Jake Howe NG 6'3, 290 So. ** (5.3) 11 2.0 0.3%
Craig Wilson DT 13 2.0 0.3% 0.5
Vontrell Williams DT 6'2, 275 Fr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jonathan Brown MLB 6'1, 235 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 77.0 11.5% 19.5 6 1 4 1 2
Ian Thomas MLB 13 2.0 0.3% 10.5 3.5 2 2
Trulon Henry SLB 11 2.0 0.3% 3.5 2 3
Houston Bates WLB 6'3, 240 So. *** (5.6) 13 2.0 0.3% 2 1 1
Ashante Williams STAR 5'11, 205 Sr. ** (5.2) 10 2.0 0.3% 1 1
Henry Dickinson WLB 6'4, 230 So. *** (5.5) 11 2.0 0.3% 0.5
Earnest Thomas STAR 6'2, 220 So. *** (5.7) 11 2.0 0.3%
Ralph Cooper MLB 6'1, 230 So. *** (5.5) 3 2.0 0.3% 0.5
T.J. Neal MLB 6'1, 230 Fr. *** (5.7)
TaJarvis Fuller STAR 6'1, 190 Fr. *** (5.6)
Mason Monheim WLB 6'1, 230 Fr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tavon Wilson CB 13 66.0 9.8% 6.5 1 1 6 1 2
Terry Hawthorne CB 6'0, 190 Sr. **** (6.0) 13 50.5 7.5% 5 3 8 1
Steve Hull FS 6'2, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 48.0 7.2% 1 2 1
Supo Sanni SS 6'3, 220 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 38.0 5.7% 2 1 5 1
Justin Green CB 5'11, 195 Sr. **** (6.0) 13 29.0 4.3% 3 1
Patrick Nixon-Youman SS 5'10, 180 Sr. *** (5.7) 11 19.5 2.9% 1
Jack Ramsey CB 5'11, 200 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 3.5 0.5%
Valdon Cooper CB


10 1.0 0.1%
Ben Mathis FS 6'3, 200 Jr. NR
Eaton Spence CB 6'0, 175 RSFr. ** (5.3)
V'Angelo Bentley CB 5'10, 180 Fr. *** (5.6)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Justin DuVernois 6'1, 190 So. 53 38.3 3 15 17 60.4%
Ryan Lankford 6'0, 175 Jr. 19 39.4 0 2 5 36.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Derek Dimke 57 62.1 16 28.1%
Justin DuVernois 6'1, 190 So. 1 49 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Derek Dimke 34-34 8-9 88.9% 2-3 66.7%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Troy Pollard KR 19 16.7 0
A.J. Jenkins KR 5 15.8 0
Ryan Lankford PR 6'0, 175 Jr. 19 1.7 0
Terry Hawthorne PR 6'0, 190 Sr. 5 7.4 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 106
Net Punting 80
Net Kickoffs 73
Touchback Pct 17
Field Goal Pct 12
Kick Returns Avg 120
Punt Returns Avg 118

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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