2012 Houston Cougars Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 13-1 | Adj. Record: 14-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 18
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep UCLA 38-34 W 33.1 - 32.4 W
10-Sep at North Texas 48-23 W 32.3 - 29.1 W
17-Sep at Louisiana Tech 35-34 W 30.5 - 28.2 W
24-Sep Georgia State 56-0 W 33.2 - 17.4 W
29-Sep at UTEP 49-42 W 35.2 - 33.4 W
8-Oct East Carolina 56-3 W 35.4 - 20.3 W
22-Oct Marshall 63-28 W 44.8 - 32.8 W
27-Oct Rice 73-34 W 36.8 - 30.7 W
5-Nov at UAB 56-13 W 32.3 - 27.5 W
10-Nov at Tulane 73-17 W 39.0 - 23.9 W
19-Nov SMU 37-7 W 34.0 - 21.6 W
25-Nov at Tulsa 48-16 W 35.1 - 19.4 W
3-Dec Southern Miss 28-49 L 28.3 - 27.9 W
2-Jan vs Penn State 30-14 W 36.9 - 25.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 49.3 1 22.4 35
Adj. Points Per Game 34.8 3 26.4 42

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Texas State 122
8-Sep Louisiana Tech 52
15-Sep at UCLA 58
29-Sep vs Rice 112
6-Oct North Texas 106
13-Oct UAB 115
20-Oct at SMU 65
27-Oct UTEP 104
3-Nov at East Carolina 82
10-Nov Tulsa 47
17-Nov at Marshall 94
24-Nov Tulane 111
Five-Year F/+ Rk 49
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 64
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +16 / +18.1
TO Luck/Game -0.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 12 (5, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** -4.8

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 1 7 12 7
RUSHING 68 21 41 9
PASSING 1 6 6 8
Standard Downs 7 22 6
Passing Downs 4 4 6
Redzone 20 34 12
Q1 Rk 68 1st Down Rk 4
Q2 Rk 2 2nd Down Rk 21
Q3 Rk 4 3rd Down Rk 7
Q4 Rk 9
Adj. Line Yards Rk 52
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 6

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Case Keenum 428 603 5,631 71.0% 48 5 16 2.6% 8.9
Cotton Turner


50 77 652 64.9% 6 1 2 2.5% 8.0
David Piland (2010^) 6'3, 185 So. *** (5.6) 201 345 2,641 58.3% 24 14 36 1.1% 7.5
Crawford Jones 6'1, 193 Sr. NR 1 2 18 50.0% 0 0 0 0.0% 9.0
Bram Kohlhausen 6'2, 205 RSFr. *** (5.6)








Piland redshirted last season after playing in Case Keenum's absence in 2010.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Michael Hayes RB 138 727 5.3 2.1 11 +12.1
Charles Sims RB 6'0, 206 Jr. *** (5.5) 110 821 7.5 3.9 9 +20.9
Bryce Beall RB 53 311 5.9 1.8 7 +9.6
Case Keenum QB 41 180 4.4 1.5 3 +1.4
Braxton Welford RB 5'11, 195 Sr. NR 21 83 4.0 0.7 1 -1.1
Kenneth Farrow RB 5'11, 195 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Terrence Taylor RB 5'11, 205 Fr. *** (5.6)
Ryan Jackson RB 5'11, 180 Fr. *** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Patrick Edwards WR-X 138 88 1,747 63.8% 20.7% 71.7% 12.0
Tyron Carrier WR-H 135 96 958 71.1% 20.2% 71.1% 7.3
Justin Johnson WR-Y 114 86 1,221 75.4% 17.1% 65.8% 11.4
Charles Sims RB 6'0, 206 Jr. *** (5.5) 63 51 575 81.0% 9.4% 65.1% 11.1
Michael Hayes RB 52 44 483 84.6% 7.8% 71.2% 10.1
E.J. Smith WR-Z 43 29 310 67.4% 6.4% 72.1% 6.2
Ronnie Williams WR-Y 5'11, 188 Sr. ** (5.2) 25 16 138 64.0% 3.7% 84.0% 4.9
Dewayne Peace WR-Z 6'0, 190 Sr. *** (5.5) 25 13 105 52.0% 3.7% 60.0% 2.7
Daniel Spencer WR-Y 6'0, 175 So. *** (5.6) 18 12 171 66.7% 2.7% 61.1% 8.8
Gino Collins WR-X 5'11, 185 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 10 178 90.9% 1.6% 72.7% 19.3
Isaiah Sweeney WR 5'10, 175 Sr. NR 3 2 28 66.7% 0.4% 66.7% 9.3
Marcus Williams WR 5'10, 175 Sr. NR 2 2 11 100.0% 0.3% 100.0% 5.5
Xavier Maxwell WR 6'0, 175 Jr. *** (5.5)






Deontay Greenberry WR 6'3, 187 Fr. **** (6.0)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Chris Thompson C 49 career starts, 2011 1st All-CUSA
Jacolby Ashworth LT 6'4, 300 Sr. ** (5.2) 29 career starts, 2011 2nd All-CUSA
Ty Cloud LG 6'4, 315 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 career starts
Kevin Forsch RG 6'5, 301 Jr. ** (5.3) 14 career starts
Rowdy Harper RT 6'6, 290 So. ** (5.2) 14 career starts
DeAnthony Sims LT 6'3, 320 Sr. *** (5.5)
Bryce Redmen LG 6'2, 283 So. ** (5.4)
Josh McNeill RG 6'6, 305 Jr. ** (5.4)
Ralph Oragwu RT 6'3, 310 Jr. ** (5.3)
Mac Long OL 6'4, 277 Fr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 62 80 81 80
RUSHING 80 84 88 78
PASSING 40 73 56 80
Standard Downs 48 55 49
Passing Downs 82 80 86
Redzone 57 59 56
Q1 Rk 40 1st Down Rk 51
Q2 Rk 79 2nd Down Rk 68
Q3 Rk 104 3rd Down Rk 80
Q4 Rk 22
Adj. Line Yards Rk 60
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 64

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Eric Braswell DE 6'4, 250 So. *** (5.5) 14 33.0 3.9% 3.5 2
David Hunter DE 14 26.5 3.1% 5 0.5 1
Kelvin King DE 6'2, 260 Sr. ** (5.2) 14 18.0 2.1% 4 2 1 1
Lloyd Allen DE 6'4, 240 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 17.0 2.0% 4.5 3.5
Dominic Miller NT 6'3, 301 Sr. NR 14 16.0 1.9% 2.5 0.5
Zeke Riser DE 6'4, 270 Jr. ** (4.9) 14 12.0 1.4% 2.5 0.5 3 1
Donald Hopkins DT 6'2, 270 Fr. *** (5.7)

Tomme Mark DT 6'2, 260 Fr. *** (5.6)

Bryan Singleton DE 6'4, 250 Fr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Marcus McGraw ILB 14 104.0 12.3% 14.5 2.5 1 7 1 1
Derrick Mathews ILB 6'0, 200 So. *** (5.6) 14 80.5 9.5% 10 1 3 3 2
Sammy Brown OLB 14 74.5 8.8% 30 13.5 3
Phillip Steward OLB 6'2, 220 Sr. ** (5.1) 14 54.5 6.4% 8 1.5 6 6 2
Everett Daniels ILB 6'0, 210 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 29.0 3.4% 3.5 1 1
George Bamfo OLB 5'11, 215 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 12.0 1.4% 4 3
Austin Wilson OLB 6'2, 210 Jr. *** (5.6) 11 6.0 0.7%
William Moore LB 6'2, 205 So. ** (5.3) 8 5.0 0.6%
Kris Johnston LB 6'0, 220 Sr. ** (5.2) 9 3.0 0.4%
Trevon Randle^ LB 6'1, 210 RSFr. *** (5.7)

Efrem Oliphant LB 6'2, 228 So. *** (5.6)

Miller Pierce LB 6'2, 205 So. NR

Davonte Thomas LB 6'1, 197 Fr. *** (5.6)

Thaddeus LaGrone LB 6'2, 193 Fr. *** (5.5)

^ Randle originally signed with LSU.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
D.J. Hayden CB 6'0, 190 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 59.0 7.0% 8 1 2 11 5 2
Kent Brooks FS 5'11, 205 Jr. *** (5.5) 14 57.0 6.7% 0.5 3 2 2
Nick Saenz SS 14 45.5 5.4% 1.5 3 2 1
Zachary McMillian CB 5'10, 175 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 35.0 4.1% 1 1 7
Colton Valencia SS 5'10, 190 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 31.0 3.7% 1.5 2
Thomas Bates CB 5'11, 180 Jr. ** (5.3) 14 29.0 3.4% 1 1 3 7
Chevy Bennett FS 6'1, 190 Sr. *** (5.6) 9 18.5 2.2% 1 1
Jeffery Lewis CB 5'9, 185 Sr. ** (5.1) 14 16.0 1.9% 1 2
Earl Foster DB 6'0, 190 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Trevon Stewart DB 5'9, 195 Fr. *** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Richie Leone 6'3, 200 Jr. 51 41.1 7 18 15 64.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Jordan Mannisto 84 64.6 26 31.0%
Richie Leone 6'3, 200 Jr. 35 63.5 5 14.3%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Matt Hogan 6'1, 196 Sr. 91-92 13-15 86.7% 0-2 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Tyron Carrier KR 30 25.2 1
Jeffery Lewis KR 5'9, 185 Sr. 3 13.7 0
Patrick Edwards PR 15 14.0 1
Damian Payne PR 6'0, 208 So. 5 21.6 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 78
Net Punting 68
Net Kickoffs 49
Touchback Pct 22
Field Goal Pct 35
Kick Returns Avg 44
Punt Returns Avg 13

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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