2012 Fresno State Bulldogs Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-9 | Adj. Record: 4-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 88
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep vs California 21-36 L 23.4 - 27.6 L
10-Sep at Nebraska 29-42 L 27.8 - 30.7 L
17-Sep North Dakota 27-22 W 24.5 - 33.2 L
24-Sep at Idaho 48-24 W 30.2 - 31.4 L
1-Oct Ole Miss 28-38 L 29.2 - 34.3 L
7-Oct Boise State 7-57 L 18.7 - 27.9 L
15-Oct Utah State 31-21 W 28.2 - 24.6 W
22-Oct at Nevada 38-45 L 35.8 - 30.8 W
5-Nov Louisiana Tech 21-41 L 33.0 - 33.4 L
12-Nov at New Mexico State 45-48 L 33.4 - 32.3 W
19-Nov at Hawaii 24-21 W 27.4 - 26.8 W
26-Nov San Jose State 24-27 L 27.7 - 32.1 L
3-Dec at San Diego State 28-35 L 25.3 - 29.7 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 28.5 52 35.2 106
Adj. Points Per Game 28.0 55 30.4 106

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Weber State NR
8-Sep at Oregon 5
15-Sep Colorado 101
22-Sep at Tulsa 47
29-Sep San Diego State 86
6-Oct at Colorado State 102
13-Oct at Boise State 39
20-Oct Wyoming 108
27-Oct at New Mexico 124
3-Nov Hawaii 93
10-Nov at Nevada 63
24-Nov Air Force 103
Five-Year F/+ Rk 71
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 120
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -14 / -4.4
TO Luck/Game -3.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (8, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +2.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 37 48 50 47
RUSHING 75 87 89 82
PASSING 27 22 26 28
Standard Downs 42 39 47
Passing Downs 64 68 68
Redzone 67 87 53
Q1 Rk 19 1st Down Rk 36
Q2 Rk 43 2nd Down Rk 49
Q3 Rk 86 3rd Down Rk 85
Q4 Rk 47
Adj. Line Yards Rk 70
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 38

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Derek Carr 6'3, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 279 446 3,544 62.6% 26 9 20 4.3% 7.3
Greg Watson 5'11, 200 So. *** (5.6) 0 1 0 0.0% 0 1 0 0.0% 0.0
Marcus McDade 6'3, 190 RSFr. *** (5.5)







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Robbie Rouse RB 5'7, 185 Sr. ** (5.2) 328 1,544 4.7 1.5 13 -7.3
Derek Carr QB 6'3, 205 Jr. *** (5.6) 37 198 5.4 2.0 3 +0.5
Milton Knox RB 5'9, 210 Sr. **** (5.8) 20 84 4.2 1.2 0 -0.9
Dillon Root RB 6'0, 180 So. ** (5.4)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Devon Wylie WR 79 56 716 70.9% 18.3% 46.8% 8.7
Jalen Saunders WR 75 50 1,065 66.7% 17.4% 70.7% 12.9
Rashad Evans WR 5'9, 190 Sr. *** (5.7) 70 44 351 62.9% 16.2% 75.7% 4.2
Isaiah Burse WR 5'11, 180 Jr. *** (5.5) 58 40 436 69.0% 13.5% 62.1% 7.3
Josh Harper WR 6'1, 185 So. *** (5.7) 56 32 475 57.1% 13.0% 64.3% 6.6
Robbie Rouse RB 5'7, 185 Sr. ** (5.2) 43 32 228 74.4% 10.0% 41.9% 5.7
A.J. Johnson WR 6'0, 180 Jr. ** (5.3) 19 8 154 42.1% 4.4% 63.2% 3.3
Ryan Skidmore TE 9 5 41 55.6% 2.1% 66.7% 3.9
Victor Dean WR 6'5, 200 So. *** (5.7) 7 2 15 28.6% 1.6% 85.7% -0.2
Austin Raphael FB 5 1 3 20.0% 1.2% 60.0% 0.3
Davante Adams WR 6'2, 200 RSFr. ** (5.3)






Dalen Jones WR 6'1, 190 Fr. *** (5.6)






Justin Johnson WR 6'1, 185 Fr. *** (5.6)






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Bryce Harris LT 39 career starts, 2011 1st All-WAC
Leslie Cooper RG 19 career starts
Austin Wentworth RT 6'5, 305 Jr. ** (5.2) 17 career starts
Richard Helepiko C 6'2, 300 Sr. ** (5.1) 11 career starts
Cody Wichmann RT 6'5, 310 So. ** (5.2) 9 career starts
Trevor Richter LG 6'4, 280 Sr. *** (5.5) 8 career starts
Matt Hunt LG 6'2, 315 Sr. *** (5.6) 6 career starts
Andrew Gustafson LT 6'6, 285 So. ** (5.4)
Max Devlin LG 6'3, 275 Sr. ** (5.2)
Lars Bramer C 6'5, 280 Jr. ** (5.4)
Bo Bonnheim LG 6'2, 260 RSFr. NR
Cody Clay OL 6'7, 305 So. ** (5.2)
Mike Saenz OL 6'5, 305 Jr. NR
David Keller OL 6'5, 286 Fr. *** (5.6)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 100 111 80 113
RUSHING 74 109 76 115
PASSING 105 101 80 107
Standard Downs 108 73 116
Passing Downs 92 64 108
Redzone 109 74 119
Q1 Rk 105 1st Down Rk 112
Q2 Rk 109 2nd Down Rk 80
Q3 Rk 100 3rd Down Rk 100
Q4 Rk 80
Adj. Line Yards Rk 63
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 88

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Logan Harrell DT 13 55.5 8.4% 17 6 4 3
Tristan Okpalaugo DE 6'5, 240 Sr. NR 12 24.5 3.7% 8.5 4 2 1
Chase McEntee DT 13 23.0 3.5% 3 2
Matt Akers DE 6'2, 245 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 14.5 2.2% 4 2.5 1 1
Tyeler Davison DT 6'2, 305 So. ** (5.4) 13 11.5 1.7% 1 1
Nat Harrison DE 6'2, 240 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 6.5 1.0% 1
1

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Travis Brown OLB 6'2, 235 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 71.0 10.8% 8.5 3 3
Kyle Knox OLB 11 44.0 6.7% 6 1 2
Jeremiah Toma ILB 6'0, 215 Jr. ** (4.9) 13 35.5 5.4% 5.5 3 1 1
Patrick Su'a ILB 6'2, 220 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 30.5 4.6% 0.5
Donavon Lewis^ OLB 6'3, 240 So. ** (5.4) 13 9.5 1.4% 4 2.5
Ofa Fifita ILB 5'11, 235 So. *** (5.6) 12 8.5 1.3%
Kyrie Wilson OLB 6'3, 210 So. *** (5.5)




^ Lewis was a defensive end last year.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Terrance Dennis SS 6'0, 180 Sr. ** (5.3) 11 56.5 8.6% 1 1
Phillip Thomas (2010^) SS 6'1, 205 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 51.5 7.8% 3.5
3 9 1
L.J. Jones CB 5'11, 180 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 50.0 7.6% 2.5 3 13 1 1
Isaiah Green CB 13 39.0 5.9% 3.5 1 3 1
Cristin Wilson FS 5'8, 175 Sr. NR 13 38.5 5.8% 0.5 4 1
Zak Hill SS 8 26.5 4.0% 1 1
Davon Dunn CB 5'10, 185 So. **** (5.8) 13 21.5 3.3% 1
Derron Smith SS 5'11, 190 Jr. *** (5.7) 3 15.0 2.3% 1 1 2 1
J.B. Dock SS 5'10, 170 Jr. *** (5.5) 10 14.0 2.1% 1 1
Jermaine Thomas CB 12 12.5 1.9% 0.5 5
Charles Washington DB 5'11, 190 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Shannon Edwards DB 5'10, 175 Fr. *** (5.6)

^ Thomas missed the 2011 season with leg and ankle injuries.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Andrew Shapiro 6'0, 190 Sr. 66 39.7 5 25 21 69.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Kevin Goessling 53 64.5 2 3.8%
Andrew Shapiro 6'0, 190 Sr. 17 64.7 1 5.9%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Kevin Goessling 47-47 8-10 80.0% 2-7 28.6%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Isaiah Burse KR 5'11, 180 Jr. 75 21.4 0
Devon Wylie PR 29 15.4 2
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 101
Net Punting 77
Net Kickoffs 63
Touchback Pct 106
Field Goal Pct 102
Kick Returns Avg 83
Punt Returns Avg 4

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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