2012 Florida State Seminoles Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 8
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep UL-Monroe 34-0 W 33.7 - 17.2 W
10-Sep Charleston S'ern 62-10 W 29.7 - 17.6 W
17-Sep Oklahoma 13-23 L 21.9 - 23.2 L
24-Sep at Clemson 30-35 L 30.1 - 27.9 W
8-Oct at Wake Forest 30-35 L 27.7 - 27.4 W
15-Oct at Duke 41-16 W 33.2 - 21.5 W
22-Oct Maryland 41-16 W 31.5 - 27.4 W
29-Oct N.C. State 34-0 W 36.2 - 13.0 W
3-Nov at Boston College 38-7 W 32.4 - 21.4 W
12-Nov Miami 23-19 W 25.5 - 27.4 L
19-Nov Virginia 13-14 L 29.1 - 26.8 W
26-Nov at Florida 21-7 W 18.7 - 14.4 W
29-Dec vs. Notre Dame 18-14 W 25.2 - 18.8 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 30.6 39 15.1 4
Adj. Points Per Game 28.8 42 21.8 7

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Murray State NR
8-Sep Savannah State NR
15-Sep Wake Forest 81
22-Sep Clemson 21
29-Sep at South Florida 29
6-Oct at N.C. State 53
13-Oct Boston College 45
20-Oct at Miami 36
27-Oct Duke 73
8-Nov at Virginia Tech 18
17-Nov at Maryland 72
24-Nov Florida 10
Five-Year F/+ Rk 16
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 3
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +4 / +2.8
TO Luck/Game 0.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (6, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -6.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 77 52 61 49
RUSHING 104 56 83 44
PASSING 33 54 43 59
Standard Downs 41 41 44
Passing Downs 35 37 39
Redzone 70 53 75
Q1 Rk 41 1st Down Rk 41
Q2 Rk 60 2nd Down Rk 36
Q3 Rk 44 3rd Down Rk 33
Q4 Rk 15
Adj. Line Yards Rk 71
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 118

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
E.J. Manuel 6'5, 240 Sr. **** (6.0) 203 311 2,666 65.3% 18 8 32 9.3% 7.1
Clint Trickett 6'2, 180 So. *** (5.6) 44 72 675 61.1% 7 4 8 10.0% 7.8
Jacob Coker 6'5, 230 RSFr. *** (5.7)







Jameis Winston 6'4, 200 Fr. ***** (6.1)







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Devonta Freeman TB 5'8, 209 So. **** (5.8) 120 579 4.8 1.6 8 +9.2
E.J. Manuel QB 6'5, 240 Sr. **** (6.0) 78 370 4.7 1.8 4 +3.5
Jermaine Thomas TB 61 279 4.6 1.9 1 -3.1
James Wilder, Jr. TB 6'2, 226 So. ***** (6.1) 35 160 4.6 1.4 1 -1.3
Chris Thompson TB 5'8, 187 Sr. **** (5.9) 29 83 2.9 1.0 1 -4.6
Lonnie Pryor FB 6'0, 229 Sr. **** (5.9) 27 74 2.7 0.6 2 -0.3
Ty Jones TB 23 71 3.1 0.6 1 -3.0
Mario Pender TB 6'0, 190 Fr. **** (6.0)






Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Willie Haulstead (2010^) WR 6'3, 230 Jr. **** (5.8) 60 38 587 63.3% 15.9% 61.7% 8.7
Rodney Smith WR-Z 6'6, 219 Sr. **** (6.0) 58 36 561 62.1% 15.8% 63.8% 8.6
Rashad Greene WR-X 6'0, 175 So. **** (5.8) 54 38 596 70.4% 14.8% 63.0% 12.6
Kenny Shaw WR-X 5'11, 170 Jr. **** (5.9) 49 34 418 69.4% 13.4% 65.3% 8.7
Bert Reed WR-X 45 29 403 64.4% 12.3% 60.0% 8.3
Christian Green WR-Z 6'2, 205 So. **** (5.9) 45 26 450 57.8% 12.3% 60.0% 8.3
Nick O'Leary TE 6'4, 245 So. **** (6.0) 20 12 164 60.0% 5.5% 75.0% 6.5
Devonta Freeman TB 5'8, 209 So. **** (5.8) 18 15 111 83.3% 4.9% 61.1% 7.6
Greg Dent WR-Z 5'11, 198 Jr. **** (5.8) 16 12 236 75.0% 4.4% 68.8% 16.3
Jarred Haggins WR-X 6'1, 187 Jr. *** (5.7) 16 11 94 68.8% 4.4% 43.8% 5.9
Jermaine Thomas TB 10 9 122 90.0% 2.7% 70.0% 18.1
Kevin Haplea^^ TE 6'4, 248 Jr. *** (5.7) 5 3 21 60.0% 1.4% 80.0% 3.1
Will Tye TE 6'3, 260 So. *** (5.6) 1 1 7 100.0% 0.5% 0.0% 7.0
Dan Hicks TE 6'4, 259 Jr. ** (5.4)
Kelvin Benjamin WR 6'6, 238 RSFr. **** (5.9)
Marvin Bracy WR 5'10, 162 Fr. **** (5.8)






Christo Kourtzidis TE 6'4, 230 Fr. **** (5.8)






^ Haulstead missed 2011 with concussion issues.
^^ Haplea is a Penn State transfer, eligible immediately.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Zebrie Sanders LT 50 career starts, 2011 1st All-ACC
Austin Datko RT 40 career starts
David Spurlock RG 34 career starts
Bryan Stork RT 6'4, 312 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 career starts
Jacob Fahrenkrug LG 6'4, 324 Sr. **** (5.9) 12 career starts
Bobby Hart RT 6'5, 318 So. **** (5.9) 9 career starts
Garrett Faircloth RG 6'7, 302 Jr. ** (5.2) 6 career starts
Austin Barron C 6'3, 295 So. ** (5.2) 3 career starts
Josue Matias LG 6'5, 320 So. **** (5.8) 1 career start
Tre' Jackson RG 6'4, 328 So. *** (5.6) 1 career start
Daniel Glauser LT 6'6, 322 Sr. *** (5.7)
Sterling Lovelady C 6'2, 285 So. *** (5.7)
Cameron Erving LT 6'5, 315 So. *** (5.6)
Trey Pettis LG 6'5, 342 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Ruben Carter RG 6'5, 285 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Menelik Watson OL 6'6, 320 Jr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 4 9 9 7
RUSHING 2 9 12 8
PASSING 20 12 13 13
Standard Downs 7 9 8
Passing Downs 15 16 12
Redzone 88 99 80
Q1 Rk 4 1st Down Rk 6
Q2 Rk 7 2nd Down Rk 12
Q3 Rk 11 3rd Down Rk 25
Q4 Rk 55
Adj. Line Yards Rk 18
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 3

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brandon Jenkins DE 6'3, 260 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 35.0 5.0% 12 8 1
Bjoern Werner DE 6'4, 265 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 31.0 4.5% 11 7 1 8 1 2
Cornellius Carradine DE 6'5, 265 Sr. **** (6.0) 13 31.0 4.5% 8 5.5
Timmy Jernigan NG 6'3, 303 So. **** (6.0) 13 23.0 3.3% 6 2.5 1
Everett Dawkins DT 6'2, 306 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 20.0 2.9% 3 2 1 3 1
Anthony McCloud NG 6'2, 322 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 19.5 2.8% 5 2 1 1
Cameron Erving DT 13 15.5 2.2% 2.5 1
Dan Hicks DE 13 11.5 1.7% 4.5 1
Toshmon Stevens DE 6'5, 250 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 9.5 1.4%
Jacobbi McDaniel NG 6'1, 292 Sr. ***** (6.1) 6 5.0 0.7% 1
Demonte McAllister DT 6'2, 290 Jr. **** (6.0) 13 4.0 0.6%
Giorgio Newberry DE 6'6, 278 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Nile Lawrence-Stample DT 6'2, 305 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Derrick Mitchell DT 6'5, 320 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Mario Edwards DT 6'4, 275 Fr. ***** (6.1)








Eddie Goldman DT 6'4, 307 Fr. ***** (6.1)








Chris Casher DE 6'4, 225 Fr. **** (6.0)








Justin Shanks DT 6'3, 306 Fr. **** (5.8)








Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Nigel Bradham WLB 13 71.0 10.2% 9.5 2 2 5 1 1
Christian Jones WLB 6'4, 240 Jr. ***** (6.1) 13 44.5 6.4% 6 3 2 2 1
Vince Williams MLB 6'1, 247 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 42.0 6.1% 5 2 1 3
Telvin Smith MLB 6'3, 215 Jr. **** (5.8) 12 35.0 5.0% 8.5 3 1 3 1 2
Nick Moody SLB 6'2, 242 Sr. **** (5.9) 9 19.0 2.7%
Jeff Luc WLB 11 11.0 1.6% 2
Nigel Terrell SLB 6'1, 235 So. *** (5.6) 4 1.0 0.1%
Terrance Smith SLB 6'3, 215 RSFr. *** (5.7) 2 0.5 0.1%
Ukeme Eligwe LB 6'3, 210 Fr. **** (6.0)








Reggie Northrup LB 6'2, 218 Fr. **** (5.8)








Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Mike Harris CB 13 50.5 7.3% 6 1 1 9
Lamarcus Joyner SS 5'8, 195 Jr. ***** (6.1) 13 46.0 6.6% 2 1 4 3
Terrance Parks SS 13 40.0 5.8% 2 1 3
Xavier Rhodes CB 6'2, 209 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 39.5 5.7% 1.5 1 4
Greg Reid CB


11 29.5 4.3% 1 2 5
Terrence Brooks FS 5'11, 196 Jr. *** (5.7) 12 14.0 2.0% 0.5 1 5
Avis Commack CB 12 8.5 1.2%
Karlos Williams FS 6'2, 230 So. ***** (6.1) 12 6.0 0.9%
Tyler Hunter SS 6'0, 190 So. *** (5.7) 11 2.0 0.3%
Nick Waisome CB 5'10, 180 So. **** (5.8) 11 1.0 0.1%
Keelin Smith CB 6'3, 187 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Lamarcus Brutus SS 6'0, 198 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Ronald Darby DB 5'11, 172 Fr. **** (5.9)








P.J. Williams DB 6'1, 175 Fr. **** (5.8)








Colin Blake DB 6'3, 185 Fr. **** (5.8)








Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Shawn Powell 57 47.0 7 4 23 47.4%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Dustin Hopkins 6'2, 190 Sr. 82 67.3 29 35.4%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Dustin Hopkins 6'2, 190 Sr. 44-44 15-17 88.2% 7-10 70.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Lamarcus Joyner KR 5'8, 195 Jr. 13 30.5 0
Karlos Williams KR 6'2, 230 So. 8 23.2 0
Greg Reid PR 5'8, 188 Sr. 37 11.2 1
Rashad Greene PR 6'0, 175 So. 3 0.3 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 2
Net Punting 2
Net Kickoffs 1
Touchback Pct 6
Field Goal Pct 20
Kick Returns Avg 10
Punt Returns Avg 34

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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