2012 Eastern Michigan Eagles Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-6 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 97
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
4-Sep Howard 41-9 W 25.1 - 25.2 L
10-Sep Alabama State 14-7 W 21.8 - 26.0 L
17-Sep at Michigan 3-31 L 24.6 - 30.5 L
24-Sep at Penn State 6-34 L 22.9 - 33.7 L
1-Oct Akron 31-23 W 22.9 - 32.7 L
8-Oct at Toledo 16-54 L 19.8 - 30.6 L
15-Oct at Central Michigan 35-28 W 33.1 - 29.9 W
22-Oct Western Michigan 14-10 W 26.3 - 23.7 W
5-Nov Ball State 31-33 L 26.9 - 29.3 L
12-Nov Buffalo 30-17 W 26.9 - 27.2 L
19-Nov at Kent State 22-28 L 24.9 - 29.1 L
25-Nov at Northern Illinois 12-18 L 21.6 - 19.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 21.3 104 24.3 50
Adj. Points Per Game 24.7 101 28.1 69

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug at Ball State 89
8-Sep Illinois State NR
15-Sep at Purdue 70
22-Sep at Michigan State 19
6-Oct Kent State 92
13-Oct Toledo 71
20-Oct Army 95
27-Oct at Bowling Green 64
1-Nov at Ohio 61
10-Nov Central Michigan 84
17-Nov at Western Michigan 69
23-Nov Northern Illinois 57
Five-Year F/+ Rk 116
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 113
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -5 / +3.0
TO Luck/Game -3.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 16 (9, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +1.8

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 93 110 113 104
RUSHING 14 101 99 98
PASSING 117 101 112 82
Standard Downs 112 111 112
Passing Downs 105 109 102
Redzone 107 107 108
Q1 Rk 91 1st Down Rk 95
Q2 Rk 119 2nd Down Rk 114
Q3 Rk 103 3rd Down Rk 96
Q4 Rk 87
Adj. Line Yards Rk 93
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 117

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Alex Gillett 6'1, 215 Sr. ** (5.1) 109 198 1,504 55.1% 14 7 19 8.8% 6.2
Tyler Benz 6'3, 215 So. ** (5.3) 1 2 16 50.0% 0 1 0 0.0% 8.0

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Alex Gillett QB 6'1, 215 Sr. ** (5.1) 150 879 5.9 2.3 3 -1.7
Javonti Greene RB 5'10, 188 Jr. NR 143 667 4.7 2.1 6 -6.2
Dominque White RB 5'9, 200 Sr. ** 132 596 4.5 1.6 5 -9.0
Dominique Sherrer RB 5'9, 202 Sr. ** (5.2) 94 572 6.1 2.8 2 -3.8
Ryan Brumfield RB 5'10, 175 So. ** (5.2) 14 36 2.6 0.5 0 -3.4
Juwan Lewis RB 5'11, 208 Fr. *** (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Nick Olds WR-X 6'2, 197 Jr. ** (5.2) 44 24 342 54.5% 23.9% 47.7% 6.0
Garrett Hoskins TE 6'2, 250 Sr. ** (5.2) 37 22 328 59.5% 20.1% 54.1% 7.4
Trey Hunter WR-Z 22 15 175 68.2% 12.0% 50.0% 7.3
Demarius Reed WR-H 5'10, 156 So. ** (5.4) 15 11 118 73.3% 8.2% 53.3% 7.3
Corey Welch WR-H 14 10 93 71.4% 7.6% 71.4% 7.1
Tyreese Russell TE 6'3, 216 So. ** (5.2) 11 6 104 54.5% 6.0% 36.4% 7.6
Javonti Greene RB 5'10, 188 Jr. NR 11 5 109 45.5% 6.0% 18.2% 4.2
Kinsman Thomas WR 7 3 48 42.9% 3.8% 71.4% 10.7
Donald Scott WR-Z 6'0, 186 Jr. ** (5.3) 7 2 55 28.6% 3.8% 85.7% 0.4
Julius Shelby WR-X 6'4, 190 So. ** (5.2) 5 3 42 60.0% 2.7% 40.0% 6.6
Quincy Jones WR 6'3, 185 Fr. *** (5.7)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Bridger Buche RG 35 career starts
Andrew Sorgatz C 6'5, 280 Sr. ** (5.2) 35 career starts
Korey Neal LT 6'3, 296 Sr. ** (4.9) 18 career starts
Corey Watman LG 6'2, 294 Sr. ** (5.1) 18 career starts
Lincoln Hansen RT 6'6, 303 So. ** (5.1) 10 career starts
Campbell Allison RT 6'6, 315 So. NR 6 career starts
Scott MacLeod RG 6'8, 290 Jr. ** (4.9) 4 career starts
Bobby McFadden LT 6'7, 295 So. ** (5.2)
Josh Woods LG 6'4, 303 So. ** (5.2)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 34 83 58 91
RUSHING 50 53 36 73
PASSING 41 99 98 99
Standard Downs 82 81 82
Passing Downs 101 92 103
Redzone 100 94 101
Q1 Rk 65 1st Down Rk 75
Q2 Rk 68 2nd Down Rk 103
Q3 Rk 120 3rd Down Rk 83
Q4 Rk 21
Adj. Line Yards Rk 54
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 29

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brad Ohrman DE 12 35.5 5.7% 8.5 5.5 1 1 1
Andy Mulumba RUSH 6'5, 263 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 35.0 5.6% 7.5 3.5 2 2
Brandon Slater NT 12 27.0 4.3% 4 1.5 1
Kalonji Kashama DT 6'4, 255 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 19.0 3.0% 3.5 1.5 1
Jabar Westerman NT 12 18.0 2.9% 6 4 2
Devon Davis RUSH 11 15.0 2.4% 3.5 1.5 1
Javon Reese DE 12 10.0 1.6% 3.5 1.5
Cy Maughmer DT 6'1, 281 Jr. *** (5.6)

Travis Linser DE 6'3, 255 Jr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Justin Cudworth WLB 5'11, 227 Sr. ** (5.3) 12 57.5 9.2% 8.5 1.5 4 3
Marcus English LB 8 34.5 5.5% 5 1 1 1
Bryan Pali SLB 6'0, 210 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 30.5 4.9% 1 1 2 1
Blake Poole SLB 6'3, 232 Sr. ** (5.4) 11 27.5 4.4% 3 1 1 1
Colin Weingrad MLB 6'0, 230 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 23.5 3.8% 2.5 3 1
Nate Paopao WLB 12 14.0 2.2% 1
Herb Waits LB 11 9.0 1.4%
Matt Boyd LB 6'0, 230 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 5.5 0.9%
Ike Spearman LB 6'1, 220 Fr. *** (5.6)

Tim Brown LB 6'0, 235 Jr. ** (5.2)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Latarrius Thomas FS 12 60.5 9.7% 0.5 4 1
Willie Williams SS 12 57.5 9.2% 8 0.5 3
Marlon Pollard DB 6'0, 170 Jr. **** (5.9) 11 45.5 7.3% 2 1 7
Marcell Rose CB 5'9, 188 Sr. ** (5.3) 12 42.0 6.7% 1 1 4 1
Darius Scott CB 5'8, 154 So. ** (5.3) 10 2.0 3.0% 1 1
Kevin Johnson SS 5'11, 180 So. ** (5.2) 12 11.0 1.8% 1 1
Nate Wilson CB 11 10.5 1.7% 4 1
Alex Bellfy FS 6'1, 200 Sr. NR 12 6.0 1.0% 1
Mycal Swaim DB 6'4, 205 Jr. ** (5.2)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Jay Karutz 6'2, 198 Sr. 64 38.8 3 21 26 73.4%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Mike Yocum 5'10, 175 So. 48 61.7 5 10.4%
Kody Fulkerson 5'11, 185 Jr. 8 59.4 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Kody Fulkerson 5'11, 185 Jr. 27-30 10-13 76.9% 4-8 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Corey Welch KR 15 20.3 0
Darius Scott KR 5'8, 154 So. 11 17.5 0
Marlon Pollard PR 6'0, 170 Jr. 15 5.3 0
Demarius Reed PR 5'10, 156 So. 13 12.8 1
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 67
Net Punting 75
Net Kickoffs 18
Touchback Pct 88
Field Goal Pct 70
Kick Returns Avg 114
Punt Returns Avg 48

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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