2012 East Carolina Pirates Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 90
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep vs South Carolina 37-56 L 32.1 - 30.1 W
10-Sep Virginia Tech 10-17 L 16.8 - 27.1 L
24-Sep UAB 28-23 W 28.9 - 29.7 L
1-Oct North Carolina 20-35 L 31.0 - 31.7 L
8-Oct at Houston 3-56 L 21.6 - 29.8 L
15-Oct at Memphis 35-17 W 27.2 - 27.9 L
22-Oct at Navy 38-35 W 29.4 - 31.1 L
29-Oct Tulane 34-13 W 27.9 - 27.3 W
5-Nov Southern Miss 28-48 L 29.8 - 26.9 W
12-Nov at UTEP 17-22 L 19.3 - 30.3 L
19-Nov Central Florida 38-31 W 33.6 - 25.0 W
26-Nov at Marshall 27-34 L 25.1 - 32.4 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 26.3 66 32.3 97
Adj. Points Per Game 26.9 71 29.1 84

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Appalachian State NR
8-Sep at South Carolina 15
15-Sep at Southern Miss 46
22-Sep at North Carolina 32
29-Sep UTEP 104
6-Oct at Central Florida 49
13-Oct Memphis 117
20-Oct at UAB 115
27-Oct Navy 76
3-Nov Houston 29
17-Nov at Tulane 111
24-Nov Marshall 94
Five-Year F/+ Rk 64
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 73
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -14 / -12.7
TO Luck/Game -0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (7, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 50 77 57 95
RUSHING 105 103 96 100
PASSING 20 55 25 73
Standard Downs 73 51 88
Passing Downs 83 51 99
Redzone 28 28 23
Q1 Rk 97 1st Down Rk 110
Q2 Rk 73 2nd Down Rk 39
Q3 Rk 62 3rd Down Rk 62
Q4 Rk 42
Adj. Line Yards Rk 108
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 44

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Dominique Davis 334 494 3,225 67.6% 25 19 24 4.6% 5.9
Rio Johnson 6'2, 193 Jr. ** (5.4) 20 29 157 69.0% 0 1 6 17.1% 3.3
Shane Carden 6'2, 216 So. ** (5.2)








Cody Keith 6'3, 189 RSFr. *** (5.7)








Brad Wornick 6'2, 192 Sr. NR








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Torrance Hunt RB 5'8, 175 Jr. ** (5.0) 109 489 4.5 1.8 2 -8.5
Reggie Bullock RB 5'9, 176 Sr. *** (5.6) 95 428 4.5 1.3 4 +0.8
Dominique Davis QB 69 344 5.0 2.0 5 +2.0
Michael Dobson RB 6'0, 190 Jr. *** (5.6) 63 221 3.5 0.8 3 -7.8
Zico Pasut RB 6'3, 234 Jr. *** (5.5) 17 50 2.9 0.5 0 -3.2
Hunter Farr (2010^) RB 6'0, 223 Jr. ** (5.4) 5 29 5.8 1.6 0 +0.5
Chris Hairston RB 6'0, 180 RSFr. ** (5.4)





^ Farr transferred from North Carolina and will be eligible this fall.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Justin Hardy IR 6'0, 181 So. NR 99 64 658 64.6% 20.2% 61.6% 6.1
Lance Lewis WR 75 60 600 80.0% 15.3% 65.3% 9.0
Andrew Bodenheimer WR 6'3, 204 Sr. NR 62 46 484 74.2% 12.7% 67.7% 8.1
Danny Webster IR 5'10, 188 So. ** (5.4) 56 43 418 76.8% 11.5% 67.9% 8.4
Joe Womack WR 34 20 180 58.8% 7.0% 85.3% 3.6
Reese Wiggins WR 5'11, 189 Jr. *** (5.6) 39 29 432 74.4% 8.0% 61.5% 11.8
Derrick Harris IR 5'7, 171 Jr. ** (5.0) 26 23 168 88.5% 5.3% 61.5% 7.9
Michael Bowman IR 24 20 180 83.3% 4.9% 66.7% 8.1
Reggie Bullock RB 5'9, 176 Sr. *** (5.6) 22 18 95 81.8% 4.5% 72.7% 5.4
Justin Jones IR 6'8, 264 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 6 41 50.0% 2.5% 75.0% 1.1
Dayon Arrington WR 6'2, 200 Sr. *** (5.7) 3 2 14 66.7% 0.6% 66.7% 4.7
Antonio Cannon WR 6'2, 176 RSFr. *** (5.6)






Lance Ray WR 6'3, 205 Jr. *** (5.5)






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Grant Harner RT 6'6, 287 Jr. ** (4.9) 20 career starts
Will Simmons RG 6'5, 310 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 career starts
Jordan Davis LG 6'3, 290 Jr. ** (4.9) 11 career starts
Steven Baker LT 9 career starts
Doug Polochak C 7 career starts
Adhem Elsawi LT 6'5, 319 Jr. NR 7 career starts
Josh Clark C 6'4, 280 Sr. ** (5.2) 6 career starts
Hugh Parker C 2 career starts
Drew Gentry LT 6'6, 302 So. ** (5.4) 1 career start
Taylor Hudson C 6'5, 272 So. ** (5.4)
Robert Jones RG 6'3, 310 Sr. ** (4.9)
Tre Robertson LG 6'5, 320 RSFr. ** (5.3)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 56 75 95 62
RUSHING 81 97 113 84
PASSING 33 54 55 51
Standard Downs 67 96 53
Passing Downs 75 73 76
Redzone 61 73 50
Q1 Rk 62 1st Down Rk 53
Q2 Rk 90 2nd Down Rk 92
Q3 Rk 45 3rd Down Rk 69
Q4 Rk 62
Adj. Line Yards Rk 106
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 40

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Michael Brooks NG 6'3, 297 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 36.5 5.4% 5.5 1 1
Matt Milner DE 6'4, 257 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 24.0 3.5% 4 0.5 1 1
Terry Williams NG 6'1, 324 So. ** (5.4) 11 18.5 2.7% 3 2 1
Lee Pegues DE 6'2, 280 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 17.0 2.5% 1.5 1
Antonio Allison DE 12 8.5 1.3% 1.5 1
Chrishon Rose DE 6'4, 288 So. ** (5.1) 9 6.5 1.0% 0.5
Justin Dixon DE 6'1, 252 Jr. **** (5.9) 7 5.0 0.7% 1.5 1.5 1

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jeremy Grove ILB 6'1, 230 So. ** (5.4) 11 83.5 12.3% 3.5 1 2
Daniel Drake ILB 6'0, 237 Sr. NR 11 46.0 6.8% 1.5 1
Kyle Tudor ILB 6'3, 232 Jr. ** (5.2) 8 41.0 6.0% 1.5 1 1 1 1
Cliff Perryman OLB 12 34.0 5.0% 5.5 3.5 1 1 1
Marke Powell OLB 11 27.0 4.0% 2 1.5 2 1
Derrell Johnson^ OLB 6'1, 263 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 26.0 3.8% 5.5 3 2
Chris Baker OLB 6'3, 238 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 20.0 2.9% 3 1.5 2
Jake Geary OLB 6'3, 236 So. *** (5.5) 11 20.0 2.9% 5 2 1 1
Brandon Williams ILB 6'1, 227 So. NR 5 7.5 1.1% 1
Maurice Falls OLB 6'2, 236 So. ** (5.2) 10 5.0 0.7% 2 2
Zeek Bigger ILB 6'2, 221 RSFr. *** (5.5)



Montese Overton OLB 6'3, 211 RSFr. ** (5.4)


Gabe Woullard LB 6'3, 230 Jr. *** (5.6)


^ Johnson was the starter at defensive end last year.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Damon Magazu FS 5'11, 199 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 58.0 8.5% 4 1 3
Bradley Jacobs SS 12 47.5 7.0% 1 1 3 1
Emanuel Davis CB 11 45.5 6.7% 4 1.5 1 7 1
Derek Blacknall CB 11 23.0 3.4% 2 1 7 2
Leonard Paulk CB 5'11, 192 Sr. ** (5.0) 12 18.0 2.6%
Rahkeem Morgan CB 12 13.0 1.9% 1 1
Jacobi Jenkins CB 6'0, 185 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 9.0 1.3% 4
Kris Sykes DB 12 7.5 1.1% 4
Justin Venable FS 6'1, 205 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 5.0 0.7% 1
Lamar Ivey SS 6'1, 187 So. *** (5.5) 10 3.0 0.4%
Adonis Armstrong DB 5'10, 180 Jr. *** (5.6)
Colby Brown DB 5'10, 180 Jr. *** (5.6)
Godfrey Thompson SS 6'0, 205 Jr. *** (5.5)
Lucas Thompson DB 6'1, 185 Fr. *** (5.7)
Jabril Solomon DB 6'2, 178 Fr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ben Ryan 42 40.0 4 4 11 35.7%
Phil McNaughton 6'1, 248 Sr. 9 38.7 0 3 0 33.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Ben Ryan 55 62.1 7 12.7%
Mike Barbour 6 61 1 16.7%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Mike Barbour 39-40 8-9 88.9% 4-8 50.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Michael Bowman KR 21 21.0 0
Derrick Harris KR 5'7, 171 Jr. 15 19.1 0
Lance Lewis PR
9 15.6 0
Danny Webster PR 5'10, 188 So. 5 6.2 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 88
Net Punting 120
Net Kickoffs 89
Touchback Pct 66
Field Goal Pct 55
Kick Returns Avg 108
Punt Returns Avg 29

---

Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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