2012 Duke Blue Devils Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 77
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Richmond 21-23 L 25.4 - 29.7 L
10-Sep Stanford 14-44 L 24.5 - 31.4 L
17-Sep at Boston College 20-19 W 30.7 - 29.6 W
24-Sep Tulane 48-27 W 30.0 - 28.1 W
1-Oct at Florida International 31-27 W 31.8 - 30.9 W
15-Oct Florida State 16-41 L 25.3 - 32.8 L
22-Oct Wake Forest 23-24 L 24.3 - 30.8 L
29-Oct Virginia Tech 10-14 L 22.5 - 28.5 L
5-Nov at Miami 14-49 L 26.2 - 34.2 L
12-Nov at Virginia 21-31 L 27.1 - 29.9 L
19-Nov Georgia Tech 31-38 L 27.3 - 31.7 L
26-Nov at North Carolina 21-37 L 26.2 - 30.3 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 22.5 93 31.2 90
Adj. Points Per Game 26.8 74 30.7 112

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Florida International 74
8-Sep at Stanford 11
15-Sep N.C. Central NR
22-Sep Memphis 114
29-Sep at Wake Forest 81
6-Oct Virginia 52
13-Oct at Virginia Tech 18
20-Oct North Carolina 33
27-Oct at Florida State 7
3-Nov Clemson 21
17-Nov at Georgia Tech 30
24-Nov Miami 36
Five-Year F/+ Rk 83
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 79
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -9 / -0.7
TO Luck/Game -3.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 16 (8, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** +2.6

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 79 62 47 67
RUSHING 115 85 82 81
PASSING 28 58 32 71
Standard Downs 78 50 89
Passing Downs 47 50 49
Redzone 53 58 57
Q1 Rk 64 1st Down Rk 66
Q2 Rk 62 2nd Down Rk 93
Q3 Rk 60 3rd Down Rk 37
Q4 Rk 64
Adj. Line Yards Rk 104
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 15

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Sean Renfree 6'5, 225 Sr. *** (5.7) 282 434 2,891 65.0% 14 11 16 3.6% 6.1
Anthony Boone 6'0, 225 So. *** (5.6) 30 53 298 56.6% 1 1 0 0.0% 5.6
Brandon Connette 6'2, 225 So. *** (5.5) 1 2 35 50.0% 0 0 1 33.3% 8.7
Thomas Sirk 6'5, 210 Fr. *** (5.7)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Juwan Thompson RB 5'11, 215 Jr. *** (5.7) 110 457 4.2 1.3 7 -0.9
Desmond Scott RB 5'9, 190 Sr. **** (5.9) 71 367 5.2 2.1 2 +1.0
Anthony Boone QB 6'0, 225 So. *** (5.6) 44 129 2.9 0.5 4 +0.1
Sean Renfree QB 6'5, 225 Sr. *** (5.7) 42 66 1.6 0.5 4 -5.2
Jay Hollingsworth RB 27 107 4.0 1.3 1 -1.7
Patrick Kurunwune RB 5'9, 225 Sr. ** (5.4) 22 56 2.5 0.3 0 -5.5
Shaquille Powell RB 5'9, 195 Fr. **** (5.8)





Jela Duncan RB 5'10, 190 Fr. *** (5.7)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Conner Vernon WR 6'1, 195 Sr. *** (5.5) 103 70 956 68.0% 21.8% 63.1% 9.1
Donovan Varner WR 96 61 713 63.5% 20.3% 56.3% 6.7
Cooper Helfet TE 66 43 395 65.2% 14.0% 59.1% 5.4
Brandon Braxton^ WR


66 40 352 60.6% 14.0% 60.6% 4.7
Desmond Scott RB 5'9, 190 Sr. **** (5.9) 31 25 135 80.6% 6.6% 54.8% 4.8
Juwan Thompson RB 5'11, 215 Jr. *** (5.7) 26 22 182 84.6% 5.5% 46.2% 9.9
Jamison Crowder WR 5'9, 175 So. *** (5.5) 22 14 163 63.6% 4.7% 36.4% 7.2
Tyree Watkins WR 18 10 70 55.6% 3.8% 50.0% 3.3
Jay Hollingsworth RB 14 13 125 92.9% 3.0% 50.0% 11.3
Braxton Deaver TE 6'5, 240 So. ** (5.3) 12 8 107 66.7% 2.5% 58.3% 8.1
Blair Holliday WR 6'3, 185 So. *** (5.5) 8 3 30 37.5% 1.7% 37.5% 0.2
Corey Gattis WR 5'11, 165 Jr. *** (5.5) 2 1 -2 50.0% 1.1% 50.0% -1.0
Brandon Watkins WR 6'0, 200 Jr. NR
David Reeves TE 6'5, 250 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Nick Hill WR 6'2, 210 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Erich Schneider TE 6'6, 200 Fr. *** (5.6)
Daniel Bellinson TE 6'5, 220 Fr. *** (5.6)

^ Braxton moved to safety this spring.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Kyle Hill LT 46 career starts
Brian Moore C 6'2, 285 Sr. *** (5.6) 27 career starts
Perry Simmons RT 6'5, 300 Jr. ** (5.0) 24 career starts
Dave Harding LG 6'4, 285 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 career starts
Laken Tomlinson RG 6'3, 310 So. *** (5.7) 12 career starts
John Coleman RG 6'4, 290 Jr. ** (5.4) 9 career starts
Takoby Cofield LT 6'4, 300 So. *** (5.7) 2 career starts
Conor Irwin C 6'4, 285 Sr. ** (5.0) 2 career starts
Jon Needham RT 1 career start
Lucas Patrick LG 6'4, 305 So. *** (5.6)
Joey Finison RG 6'4, 295 Jr. ** (5.0)
Lucas Patrick LG 6'4, 310 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Marcus Aprahamian RT 6'4, 300 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Carson Ginn LT 6'6, 290 RSFr. ** (5.3)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 92 89 94 90
RUSHING 85 95 106 85
PASSING 84 87 64 91
Standard Downs 104 110 98
Passing Downs 93 100 93
Redzone 90 85 92
Q1 Rk 90 1st Down Rk 93
Q2 Rk 77 2nd Down Rk 113
Q3 Rk 65 3rd Down Rk 78
Q4 Rk 120
Adj. Line Yards Rk 101
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 80

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Sydney Sarmiento DT 6'4, 300 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 22.0 3.6% 1.5 1 1
Justin Foxx DE 6'3, 245 Jr. *** (5.7) 11 21.0 3.4% 4.5 2 1
Charlie Hatcher NG 12 21.0 3.4% 3.5 2 1 1
Curtis Hazelton NG 12 15.5 2.5%
Dezmond Johnson DE 6'4, 250 So. *** (5.6) 12 13.0 2.1% 3 1
Jamal Wallace DE 6'4, 275 So. *** (5.6) 12 12.5 2.0% 2.5 1 1
Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo DE 6'4, 240 So. ** (5.2) 10 12.0 1.9% 1 1 1
Kenny Anunike DE 6'5, 260 Sr. *** (5.6) 4 9.5 1.5% 5 4 1
Jamal Bruce DT 6'1, 285 So. ** (5.4) 12 2.5 0.4% 0.5
Nick Sink DT 6'5, 285 So. ** (5.4) 7 2.0 0.3%
Steven Ingram DT 6'2, 315 So. ** (5.2) 2 0.5 0.1%

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kelby Brown LB 6'2, 220 Jr. *** (5.7) 10 48.0 7.8% 7 1.5 3 1
Austin Gamble LB 6'1, 245 Sr. *** (5.6) 12 29.5 4.8% 5.5 2 1
David Helton LB 6'4, 230 So. *** (5.5) 9 18.0 2.9% 2.5 1.5
C.J. France LB 6'0, 230 So. *** (5.5) 11 16.0 2.6%
Kyler Brown LB 6'4, 225 RSFr. ** (5.4)
Kellin Rayner LB 6'3, 220 Fr. *** (5.7)
Deion Williams LB 5'11, 205 Fr. *** (5.6)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Matt Daniels S 12 95.5 15.5% 4 2 14 1
Walt Canty S 6'1, 220 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 68.5 11.1% 4 1 5 3
Ross Cockrell CB 6'0, 180 Jr. *** (5.5) 11 45.5 7.4% 1 1 9
Jordon Byas S 6'1, 220 Sr. ** (5.4) 11 29.0 4.7% 2
Tony Foster CB 6'1, 180 Sr. ** (5.1) 11 27.5 4.4% 3
August Campbell S 6'3, 235 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 23.5 3.8% 3.5 1
Johnny Williams CB 9 19.5 3.2% 4
Zach Greene CB 10 15.0 2.4% 0.5 1 1 1
Brandon Braxton S 6'1, 210 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 9.0 1.5%
Anthony Young-Wiseman S 6'0, 220 Jr. ** (5.0) 12 8.0 1.3% 1
Garett Patterson CB 6'1, 190 Jr. ** (4.9) 12 5.5 0.9%
Lee Butler CB 5'11, 185 Sr. ** (5.3) 4 2.5 0.4% 1
Taylor Sowell S 5'10, 210 Jr. *** (5.5) 6 2.0 0.3%
Josh Trezvant S 11 2.0 0.3% 0.5
Brandon Braxton S 6'1, 190 Jr. ** (5.3)


Tim Burton CB 5'9, 180 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Dwayne Norman DB 6'0, 180 Fr. *** (5.6)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Alex King 50 42.1 4 8 17 50.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Paul Asack 6'2, 220 Sr. 46 64.3 5 10.9%
Will Snyderwine 5 64.4 1 20.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Will Snyderwine 28-28 7-13 53.8% 1-4 25.0%
Jeffrey Ijjas 5-5 1-2 50.0% 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jamison Crowder KR 5'9, 175 So. 38 21.4 0
Desmond Scott KR 5'9, 190 Sr. 19 19.7 0
Jamison Crowder PR 5'9, 175 So. 13 9.4 0
Lee Butler PR 5'11, 185 Sr. 7 9.4 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 41
Net Punting 38
Net Kickoffs 16
Touchback Pct 75
Field Goal Pct 116
Kick Returns Avg 85
Punt Returns Avg 51

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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