2012 Connecticut Huskies Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 61
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Fordham 35-3 W 29.0 - 21.1 W
10-Sep at Vanderbilt 21-24 L 17.8 - 20.3 L
16-Sep Iowa State 20-24 L 20.6 - 26.6 L
24-Sep at Buffalo 17-3 W 22.1 - 21.9 W
1-Oct Western Michigan 31-38 L 25.8 - 30.2 L
8-Oct at West Virginia 16-43 L 22.9 - 28.4 L
15-Oct South Florida 16-10 W 22.2 - 24.9 L
26-Oct at Pittsburgh 20-35 L 26.6 - 33.8 L
5-Nov Syracuse 28-21 W 27.7 - 28.0 L
19-Nov Louisville 20-34 L 23.9 - 27.0 L
26-Nov Rutgers 40-22 W 31.3 - 29.2 W
3-Dec at Cincinnati 27-35 L 23.0 - 22.4 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 24.3 82 24.3 50
Adj. Points Per Game 24.4 109 26.2 41

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug Massachusetts 116
8-Sep N.C. State 54
15-Sep at Maryland 66
22-Sep at Western Michigan 69
29-Sep Buffalo 107
6-Oct at Rutgers 40
13-Oct Temple 73
19-Oct at Syracuse 78
3-Nov at South Florida 25
9-Nov Pittsburgh 41
24-Nov at Louisville 50
1-Dec Cincinnati 44
Five-Year F/+ Rk 42
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 98
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +8 / +4.7
TO Luck/Game 1.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 16 (8, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -2.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 108 108 110 103
RUSHING 97 100 97 92
PASSING 84 108 108 104
Standard Downs 97 96 94
Passing Downs 106 108 103
Redzone 68 61 73
Q1 Rk 89 1st Down Rk 107
Q2 Rk 114 2nd Down Rk 71
Q3 Rk 74 3rd Down Rk 112
Q4 Rk 96
Adj. Line Yards Rk 73
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 112

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Johnny McEntee 6'3, 224 Sr. NR 172 335 2,110 51.3% 12 8 37 9.9% 5.1
Mike Nebrich 6'1, 204 So. *** (5.5) 5 14 69 35.7% 0 1 2 12.5% 3.1
Scott McCummings 6'2, 218 So. ** (5.4) 5 10 157 50.0% 2 0 2 16.7% 11.8
Chandler Whitmer 6'1, 191 So. **** (5.8)








Casey Cochran 6'1, 207 Fr. *** (5.7)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Lyle McCombs RB 5'8, 172 So. ** (5.3) 275 1,151 4.2 1.6 7 -13.3
Scott McCummings QB 6'2, 218 So. ** (5.4) 72 301 4.2 1.1 5 +1.5
Jonathan Jean-Louis RB 23 79 3.4 0.5 0 -3.0
Johnny McEntee QB 6'3, 224 Sr. NR 18 74 4.1 0.6 0 -3.9
Martin Hyppolite RB 6'0, 214 Jr. ** (5.2)



Max DeLorenzo RB 5'11, 213 RSFr. ** (5.4)





Joseph Williams RB 5'11, 201 Fr. *** (5.5)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Michael Smith (2010^) WR 6'0, 201 Sr. ** (5.1) 86 46 618 53.5% 25.8% 60.5% 5.7
Isiah Moore WR 73 43 588 58.9% 21.4% 45.2% 7.3
Kashif Moore WR 71 41 604 57.7% 20.8% 49.3% 7.5
Ryan Griffin TE 6'6, 248 Sr. ** (5.2) 62 33 477 53.2% 18.2% 56.5% 5.6
Lyle McCombs RB 5'8, 172 So. ** (5.3) 39 19 172 48.7% 11.4% 69.2% 3.2
Bryce McNeal (2010^^) WR 6'1, 180 Sr. **** (6.0) 34 19 187 55.9% 8.5% 52.9% 4.9
Nick Williams WR 5'10, 185 Sr. ** (5.1) 27 11 236 40.7% 7.9% 44.4% 4.4
Tebucky Jones WR 5'11, 186 So. ** (5.4) 18 5 42 27.8% 5.3% 50.0% -1.0
Geremy Davis WR 6'3, 211 So. *** (5.5) 17 6 73 35.3% 5.0% 47.1% 0.2
Reuben Frank FB 6'3, 238 So. *** (5.6) 10 8 30 80.0% 2.9% 50.0% 3.0
Mark Hinkley FB 10 7 49 70.0% 2.9% 70.0% 6.3
John Delahunt TE 6'3, 247 Sr. ** (5.2) 10 6 43 60.0% 2.9% 70.0% 4.1
Shakim Phillips (2010^^^) WR 6'1, 200 So. **** (5.8) 5 1 9 20.0% 1.6% 40.0% 0.5
Deshon Foxx WR 5'10, 170 So. ** (5.4)
Sean McQuillan TE 6'4, 238 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Ricky Gutierrez WR 6'1, 175 Fr. *** (5.5)

^ Smith was suspended for the 2011 season due to academic ineligibility.
^^ McNeal is a Clemson transfer and will be eligible this fall.
^^^ Phillips is a Boston College transfer and will be eligible this fall.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Moe Petrus C 51 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big East
Mike Ryan LT 33 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Big East
Adam Masters RG 6'4, 292 Sr. ** (5.1) 23 career starts
Kevin Friend RT 6'5, 300 Jr. ** (5.1) 13 career starts
Steve Greene LG 6'4, 304 Jr. *** (5.6) 8 career starts
Jimmy Bennett LT 6'9, 306 Sr. *** (5.7) 3 career starts
Gary Bardzak LG 2 career starts
Stephen Brown RT 6'6, 290 Jr. NR 1 career start
Tyler Bullock LT 6'4, 298 Jr. ** (5.1)
Gus Cruz RG 6'4, 288 So. ** (5.0)
Alex Mateas C 6'3, 293 So. NR
Xavier Hemingway OT 6'4, 262 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Dalton Gifford OT 6'5, 297 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 51 39 22 55
RUSHING 3 10 7 20
PASSING 113 84 67 88
Standard Downs 51 31 80
Passing Downs 34 17 46
Redzone 99 45 111
Q1 Rk 31 1st Down Rk 71
Q2 Rk 26 2nd Down Rk 42
Q3 Rk 73 3rd Down Rk 22
Q4 Rk 72
Adj. Line Yards Rk 4
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 48

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kendall Reyes DT 12 35.0 5.4% 13.5 4.5 4 1
Trevardo Williams DE 6'1, 231 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 34.5 5.4% 15 12.5 2 2
Tywon Martin DT 12 27.5 4.3% 9.5 3.5 1
Jesse Joseph DE 6'3, 262 Sr. ** (5.0) 9 20.0 3.1% 2.5 1 1 2
Ted Jennings DE 6'5, 248 Sr. ** (5.1) 10 18.0 2.8% 8 3.5 1
Shamar Stephen DT 6'5, 315 Jr. ** (4.9) 12 12.0 1.9% 1 1
Marcus Campbell DE 6 3.0 0.5% 0.5
Ryan Wirth DT 6'2, 268 Sr. ** (5.1) 9 1.5 0.2%
B.J. McBryde DE 6'4, 277 So. ** (5.2) 3 1.0 0.2%
Kenton Adeyemi DT 6'4, 259 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Mikal Myers DT 6'0, 300 Fr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jory Johnson OLB 6'1, 227 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 71.0 11.0% 7 2 4 1 2
Sio Moore OLB 6'1, 232 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 70.5 11.0% 16 6.5 3 6 2 1
Yawin Smallwood MLB 6'2, 229 So. *** (5.5) 12 65.0 10.1% 2.5 1.5 1 3 1 2
Brandon Steg LB 6'2, 221 So. ** (5.4) 12 8.0 1.2%
Andrew Opoku OLB 6'4, 223 So. *** (5.5 12 7.5 1.2%




Ryan Donohue (2010^) LB 6'0, 242 Sr. *** (5.5) 13 5.5 0.7%
1

1
David Kenney OLB 6'0, 206 Jr. ** (5.2) 11 2.0 0.3%




Jefferson Ashiru LB 6'1, 227 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Marquise Vann LB 6'0, 224 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Jazzmar Cox LB 6'0, 239 Fr. *** (5.5)
Jason Sylva LB 6'2, 245 Fr. *** (5.5)

^ Donohue is a Maryland transfer and will be eligible this fall.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jerome Junior S

11 45.0 7.0% 1.5 0.5 1 6 1 1
Dwayne Gratz CB 6'0, 195 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 44.0 6.8% 4.5 3 4 1 1
Byron Jones S 6'1, 187 So. ** (5.4) 12 42.0 6.5% 2 4 1
Ty-Meer Brown S 6'0, 192 So. ** (5.3) 12 32.5 5.1% 1 3 7 1 1
Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB 6'0, 192 Sr. ** (5.2) 8 30.0 4.7% 2 0.5 2 7
Harris Agbor S 12 18.5 2.9% 2.5 1 3
Gary Wilburn CB 12 18.0 2.8% 1
Chris Lopes CB


8 5.5 0.9%
Tevrin Brandon CB


11 5.0 0.8%
Gilbert Stlouis S 5'11, 183 Jr. *** (5.5) 7 2.0 0.3%
Taylor Mack CB 5'9, 169 Jr. *** (5.5) 8 1.0 0.2%
David Stevenson CB 5'8, 173 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Obi Melifonwu DB 6'4, 195 Fr. *** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Cole Wagner 6'2, 211 Jr. 80 41.1 5 29 21 62.5%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Chad Christen 6'2, 201 Jr. 62 65.7 14 22.6%
Cole Wagner 6'2, 211 Jr. 1 61 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
David Teggart 29-30 10-10 100.0% 12-18 66.7%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Nick Williams KR 5'10, 185 Sr. 37 24.9 0
Deshon Foxx KR 5'10, 170 So. 4 21.0 0
Taylor Mack KR 5'9, 169 Jr. 2 17.5 0
Nick Williams PR 5'10, 185 Sr. 22 5.6 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 24
Net Punting 48
Net Kickoffs 52
Touchback Pct 28
Field Goal Pct 29
Kick Returns Avg 16
Punt Returns Avg 96

---

Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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