2012 Colorado State Rams Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 105
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at New Mexico 14-10 W 20.2 - 29.0 L
10-Sep Northern Colorado 33-14 W 26.8 - 30.4 L
17-Sep vs Colorado 14-28 L 19.6 - 32.2 L
24-Sep at Utah State 35-34 W 24.0 - 27.9 L
1-Oct San Jose State 31-38 L 26.0 - 31.5 L
15-Oct Boise State 13-63 L 25.6 - 32.6 L
22-Oct at UTEP 17-31 L 19.8 - 33.2 L
29-Oct at UNLV 35-38 L 24.2 - 33.5 L
12-Nov San Diego State 15-18 L 23.9 - 23.4 W
19-Nov at TCU 10-34 L 29.8 - 27.4 W
26-Nov Air Force 21-45 L 29.6 - 32.9 L
3-Dec Wyoming 19-22 L 26.4 - 29.0 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 21.4 101 31.3 91
Adj. Points Per Game 24.7 103 30.2 105

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
2-Sep vs. Colorado 101
8-Sep North Dakota State NR
15-Sep at San Jose State 110
22-Sep Utah State 79
29-Sep at Air Force 103
6-Oct Fresno State 81
13-Oct at San Diego State 86
27-Oct Hawaii 93
3-Nov at Wyoming 108
10-Nov UNLV 119
17-Nov at Boise State 39
24-Nov New Mexico 124
Five-Year F/+ Rk 101
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 87
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -4 / -5.5
TO Luck/Game 0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 17 (9, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 87 112 111 113
RUSHING 44 89 84 89
PASSING 90 118 117 117
Standard Downs 89 79 93
Passing Downs 119 119 117
Redzone 118 106 120
Q1 Rk 112 1st Down Rk 91
Q2 Rk 113 2nd Down Rk 103
Q3 Rk 80 3rd Down Rk 117
Q4 Rk 106
Adj. Line Yards Rk 75
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 116

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Pete Thomas


161 261 1,607 61.7% 7 8 27 9.4% 5.0
Garrett Grayson 6'2, 201 So. *** (5.6) 43 77 542 55.8% 2 6 8 9.4% 5.9
M.J. McPeek 6'4, 236 Sr. NR






Conner Smith 6'4, 213 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Chris Nwoke RB 6'0, 215 Jr. ** (5.4) 200 1,130 5.7 2.4 9 +3.4
Raymond Carter RB 121 584 4.8 1.4 4 -6.4
Garrett Grayson QB 6'2, 201 So. *** (5.6) 39 230 5.9 2.3 1 -1.0
Pete Thomas QB


29 141 4.9 1.5 3 +2.0
Derek Good RB 15 99 6.6 2.6 0 -1.0
Dorian Brown RB 6'1, 225 RSFr. *** (5.7)





Davon Riddick RB 6'0, 204 RSFr. *** (5.5)





Tommey Morris RB 6'0, 220 Fr. ** (5.4)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Crockett Gillmore TE 6'6, 244 Jr. *** (5.5) 71 45 468 63.4% 22.0% 54.9% 6.0
Lou Greenwood WR 6'0, 172 Sr. *** (5.6) 43 26 396 60.5% 13.3% 58.1% 7.9
Joe Brown FB 6'3, 224 Jr. ** (5.3) 35 25 197 71.4% 10.8% 62.9% 5.5
Chris Nwoke RB 6'0, 215 Jr. ** (5.4) 29 23 143 79.3% 9.0% 41.4% 5.8
Raymond Carter RB 24 15 138 62.5% 7.4% 33.3% 3.7
Thomas Coffman WR 5'10, 168 So. ** (5.4) 24 8 210 33.3% 7.4% 70.8% 1.4
Matt Yemm WR 19 15 207 78.9% 5.9% 78.9% 11.9
T.J. Borcky WR 17 13 121 76.5% 5.3% 70.6% 7.6
Lee Clubb WR 5'10, 187 So. ** (5.3) 15 9 65 60.0% 4.6% 66.7% 3.4
Jake Levin FB 6'2, 217 Jr. NR 12 9 110 75.0% 3.7% 58.3% 9.8
Marquise Law WR 6'4, 212 Sr. ** (5.4) 8 3 9 37.5% 2.5% 62.5% 0.2
Dominique Vinson WR 6'0, 165 Sr. *** (5.6)






Bobby Borcky WR 6'1, 180 Jr. *** (5.5)






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Paul Madsen RT 30 career starts, 2011 2nd All-MWC
Weston Richburg LT 6'4, 300 Jr. ** (5.1) 24 career starts, 2011 2nd All-MWC
Jake Gdowski LG 28 career starts
Jordan Gragert RG 6'4, 291 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 career starts
Joe Caprioglio LT 6'6, 315 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 career starts
Ty Sambrailo LT 6'5, 299 So. ** (5.1) 6 career starts
Tyler McDermott C 6 career starts
Mason Hathaway RT 6'5, 282 So. *** (5.6) 1 career start
Brandon Haynes LG 6'3, 305 Jr. ** (5.2)
Mason Myers C 6'3, 302 So. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 85 101 107 94
RUSHING 116 111 109 105
PASSING 13 74 78 71
Standard Downs 115 116 117
Passing Downs 38 40 33
Redzone 86 108 69
Q1 Rk 71 1st Down Rk 118
Q2 Rk 114 2nd Down Rk 84
Q3 Rk 97 3rd Down Rk 61
Q4 Rk 102
Adj. Line Yards Rk 110
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 5

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Nordly Capi DE


12 29.5 4.4% 11.5 10 2 7 1
C.J. James DE 6'3, 242 Sr. ** (5.4) 10 27.0 4.1% 8 5 1
John Froland DT 6'5, 250 So. *** (5.7) 12 21.0 3.2% 3.5 0.5 1 1
Te'Jay Brown NT 6'2, 267 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 10.0 1.5% 0.5
Nuku Latu NT 10 9.5 1.4% 2.5 0.5
Davis Burl DE 6'2, 236 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 9.0 1.4% 1 2
Zach Tiedgen DT 6'4, 270 Sr. ** (5.1) 11 7.0 1.1% 1.5 1
Curtis Wilson DT 6'4, 262 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 7.0 1.1% 2 2
Colton Paulhus DE 6'2, 274 Jr. *** (5.6) 11 5.0 0.8% 0.5
Calvin Tonga DT 6'2, 325 Jr. *** (5.5)

Alex Tucci DT 6'3, 300 So. ** (5.4)

Joe Kawulok DE 6'6, 250 RSFr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Shaquil Barrett MLB 6'2, 244 Jr. NR 12 72.0 10.8% 4.5 2.5 1 3 1 2
Mike Orakpo WLB


12 68.0 10.2% 3 1 1
James Skelton SLB 6'2, 230 Sr. NR 11 66.0 9.9% 2 1 1 2
Mychal Sisson WLB 5 20.5 3.1% 3.5 1.5 1 1 1 1
Max Morgan SLB 6'1, 217 So. *** (5.5) 10 19.0 2.9% 3 1 1
Aaron Davis WLB 6'0, 199 So. ** (5.2) 11 18.0 2.7%
Charles Favors MLB 6'1, 222 Jr. *** (5.5) 9 8.0 1.2% 1
Cory James LB 6'0, 235 RSFr. ** (5.4)







Kevin Davis LB 6'3, 226 Fr. *** (5.6)








Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Austin Gray FS 6'3, 208 So. NR 12 46.0 6.9% 1 1 5 1
Shaq Bell CB 5'11, 191 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 38.5 5.8% 5 2
Ivory Herd SS 11 38.0 5.7% 1 1 1
Momo Thomas CB 5'9, 182 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 23.0 3.5% 1 2 5 1 1
Elijah-Blu Smith CB 7 20.5 3.1% 0.5 2
Ezra Thompson FS


6 15.5 2.3% 0.5 1
Drew Reilly SS 6'3, 184 So. ** (5.2) 12 14.5 2.2%
Dominique Vinson CB


9 12.5 1.9% 1 1 1
Bernard Blake CB 6'0, 175 So. ** (5.4) 11 11.5 1.7% 1 1
Marcus Shaw CB 5'8, 176 Sr. NR 12 11.5 1.7% 1
Trent Matthews DB 6'3, 210 RSFr. *** (5.5)







Kevin Pierre-Louis DB 6'1, 212 RSFr. *** (5.5)







^ Vinson moved to receiver this spring.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Pete Kontodiakos 6'3, 224 Sr. 57 43.6 4 12 13 43.9%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Ben DeLine 47 65.6 12 25.5%
Chad Vandermolen 2 42.5 1 50.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Chad Vandermolen 11-11 4-5 80.0% 2-3 66.7%
Ben DeLine 16-17 3-4 75.0% 1-4 25.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Derek Good KR 32 24.3 0
Lee Clubb KR 5'10, 187 So. 15 26.0 0
Thomas Coffman KR 5'10, 168 So. 4 15.5 0
Momo Thomas PR 5'9, 182 Sr. 21 10.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 82
Net Punting 21
Net Kickoffs 76
Touchback Pct 23
Field Goal Pct 91
Kick Returns Avg 21
Punt Returns Avg 45

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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