2012 Central Michigan Chippewas Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 101
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep S.C. State 21-6 W 19.7 - 16.4 W
10-Sep at Kentucky 13-27 L 24.0 - 32.7 L
17-Sep at Western Michigan 14-44 L 25.1 - 29.8 L
24-Sep at Michigan State 7-45 L 16.2 - 30.8 L
1-Oct Northern Illinois 48-41 W 35.1 - 27.5 W
8-Oct at N.C. State 24-38 L 30.5 - 31.5 L
15-Oct Eastern Michigan 28-35 L 29.6 - 33.9 L
22-Oct at Ball State 27-31 L 26.4 - 31.7 L
29-Oct at Akron 23-22 W 24.6 - 33.0 L
4-Nov at Kent State 21-24 L 31.6 - 34.8 L
10-Nov Ohio 28-43 L 30.6 - 29.0 W
18-Nov Toledo 17-44 L 24.8 - 30.9 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 22.6 92 33.3 99
Adj. Points Per Game 26.5 80 30.2 103

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug SE Missouri State NR
8-Sep Michigan State 19
22-Sep at Iowa 43
29-Sep at Northern Illinois 57
6-Oct at Toledo 71
12-Oct Navy 76
20-Oct Ball State 89
27-Oct Akron 123
3-Nov Western Michigan 69
10-Nov at Eastern Michigan 91
17-Nov Miami (Ohio) 77
23-Nov at Massachusetts 116
Five-Year F/+ Rk 78
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 100
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -12 / -13.8
TO Luck/Game 0.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 16 (8, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** +4.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 57 85 88 85
RUSHING 98 106 103 105
PASSING 25 73 68 75
Standard Downs 84 85 79
Passing Downs 89 96 77
Redzone 101 104 93
Q1 Rk 71 1st Down Rk 63
Q2 Rk 98 2nd Down Rk 109
Q3 Rk 117 3rd Down Rk 75
Q4 Rk 11
Adj. Line Yards Rk 110
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 21

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Ryan Radcliff 6'3, 215 Sr. ** (5.4) 257 453 3,286 56.7% 25 16 17 3.6% 6.8
A.J. Westendorp 6'1, 229 Jr. ** (5.1) 1 4 4 25.0% 0 2 0 0.0% 1.0
Cody Kater 6'4, 235 Jr. *** (5.6)







Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Anthony Garland HB 6'0, 220 So. ** (5.2) 83 378 4.6 2.0 1 -5.1
Zurlon Tipton HB 6'1, 222 Jr. ** (5.2) 79 370 4.7 2.0 2 -8.9
Paris Cotton HB 62 409 6.6 3.6 2 +4.9
Tim Phillips HB 5'5, 166 Jr. ** (5.0) 54 214 4.0 1.4 1 -4.8
Ben Brown HB 16 49 3.1 0.4 1 -0.9
Ryan Radcliff QB 6'3, 215 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 40 3.1 1.2 0 -1.5

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Cody Wilson WR 5'10, 189 Sr. ** (5.2) 79 48 526 60.8% 18.4% 62.0% 5.4
Titus Davis WR 6'2, 185 So. ** (5.4) 62 40 751 64.5% 14.4% 62.9% 11.0
David Blackburn TE 50 34 479 68.0% 11.6% 56.0% 9.5
Jerry Harris WR 6'3, 185 Sr. ** (5.2) 50 22 253 44.0% 11.6% 58.0% 2.2
Courtney Williams WR 6'1, 205 So. *** (5.5) 35 21 385 60.0% 8.1% 45.7% 9.6
Zurlon Tipton HB 6'1, 222 Jr. ** (5.2) 22 17 124 77.3% 5.1% 50.0% 6.0
Caleb Southworth TE 6'5, 228 So. ** (5.4) 20 10 109 50.0% 4.7% 60.0% 3.2
Connor Odykirk TE 6'4, 237 Jr. NR 18 9 106 50.0% 4.2% 72.2% 4.5
Paris Cotton HB 17 11 166 64.7% 4.0% 52.9% 9.1
Tim Phillips HB 5'5, 166 Jr. ** (5.0) 16 10 80 62.5% 3.7% 37.5% 4.4

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Rocky Weaver RG 35 career starts
Jake Olson LT 6'8, 300 Sr. ** (5.0) 24 career starts
Darren Keyton RG 6'3, 300 Sr. ** (5.1) 23 career starts
Eric Fisher LT 6'8, 305 Sr. ** (5.2) 21 career starts
Mike Repovz LG 6'5, 290 Sr. ** (5.1) 17 career starts
Andy Phillips C 6'3, 302 So. ** (5.3) 5 career starts
Kevin Henry RT 6'5, 300 So. *** (5.6) 4 career starts
Cody Pettit LG 6'3, 290 Jr. ** (5.4)
Jeff Fantuzzi RT 6'4, 295 Jr. *** (5.5)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 96 112 109 111
RUSHING 93 110 102 109
PASSING 80 110 109 114
Standard Downs 114 111 115
Passing Downs 103 102 101
Redzone 72 82 67
Q1 Rk 111 1st Down Rk 117
Q2 Rk 56 2nd Down Rk 97
Q3 Rk 113 3rd Down Rk 109
Q4 Rk 119
Adj. Line Yards Rk 89
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 113

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Joe Kinville DE 6'4, 260 Sr. NR 12 34.5 4.8% 5.5 0.5 1 1
Steve Winston DT 6'1, 260 Sr. ** (5.0) 11 27.0 3.8% 2 0.5
Darryll Stinson DE 6'5, 266 Sr. ** (5.1) 11 20.0 2.8% 5 1
Jason Chomic DE 10 18.5 2.6% 5 1.5
Matt Losiniecki NG 6'1, 267 So. ** (5.3) 9 16.5 2.3% 2 2
Chris Reeves NG 6'0, 279 Sr. NR 12 13.0 1.8% 1 1
Kenny McClendon DE 6'2, 250 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 11.5 1.6% 2.5 1.5
John Williams DT 4 10.5 1.5% 2 1.5
Caesar Rodriguez DE 6'2, 241 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 10.0 1.4% 1.5 1 1
Leterrius Walton DT 6'6, 308 So. ** (5.3) 4 4.5 0.6% 2 0.5
Dorian Dawson DT 7 4.0 0.6% 0.5

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Armond Staten SLB 10 48.0 6.7% 5.5 0.5 1
Mike Petrucci MLB 8 41.5 5.8% 5 1 2
Shamari Benton MLB 6'0, 220 Jr. *** (5.5) 9 41.0 5.7% 3.5 1
Cody Lopez WLB 6'1, 218 So. ** (5.2) 10 39.5 5.5% 3
Justin Cherocci WLB 6'1, 232 So. NR 10 21.0 2.9% 1 1
Mike Kinville MLB 6'2, 236 So. ** (5.4) 12 10.5 1.5% 0.5
Ryan Petro SLB 6'0, 218 So. ** (5.4) 9 9.5 1.3%
Alex Smith WLB 6'3, 236 Sr. *** (5.5) 9 9.0 1.3% 1.5
Nathan Ricketts LB 6'3, 215 Fr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jahleel Addae SS 5'11, 195 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 79.0 11.0% 4 4 4 1 1
Avery Cunningham FS 6'0, 201 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 62.5 8.7% 1 4
John Carr CB 12 55.0 7.7% 1 0.5 1 10 1
Lorenzo White CB 6'0, 180 Sr. ** (5.3) 11 36.0 5.0% 3
Dennis Nalor CB 6'0, 178 So. ** (5.3) 11 17.0 2.4% 1.5 2
Taylor Bradley DB 3 12.5 1.7% 1 1 1
Leron Eaddy SS 5'10, 195 Jr. ** (5.0) 12 10.5 1.5% 1 1
Jarret Chapman CB 5'11, 182 So. ** (5.3) 9 8.0 1.1%
Jordan Fields DB 6'1, 175 Fr. *** (5.6)

Brandon Greer DB 6'0, 195 Fr. *** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Richie Hogan 6'2, 203 Jr. 64 39.4 4 20 18 59.4%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
David Harman 6'0, 182 Sr. 30 61.8 3 10.0%
Connor Gagnon 6'1, 191 Jr. 26 61.5 7 26.9%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
David Harman 6'0, 182 Sr. 32-32 11-14 78.6% 2-2 100.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Titus Davis KR 6'2, 185 So. 18 21.5 0
Jason Wilson KR 6'0, 172 So. 14 19.3 0
Cody Wilson PR 5'10, 189 Sr. 9 5.2 0
Billy Myler PR 3 8.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 84
Net Punting 113
Net Kickoffs 77
Touchback Pct 42
Field Goal Pct 22
Kick Returns Avg 88
Punt Returns Avg 69

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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