2012 California Golden Bears Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 45
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Fresno State 36-21 W 24.2 - 21.2 W
10-Sep at Colorado 36-33 W 25.0 - 31.5 L
17-Sep Presbyterian 63-12 W 26.8 - 5.4 W
24-Sep at Washington 23-31 L 24.6 - 28.9 L
6-Oct at Oregon 15-43 L 25.7 - 27.8 L
13-Oct USC 9-30 L 20.0 - 22.3 L
22-Oct Utah 34-10 W 33.1 - 16.9 W
29-Oct at UCLA 14-31 L 21.3 - 29.2 L
5-Nov Washington State 30-7 W 27.9 - 19.3 W
12-Nov Oregon State 23-6 W 28.8 - 23.3 W
19-Nov at Stanford 28-31 L 30.2 - 26.6 W
25-Nov at Arizona State 47-38 W 35.6 - 28.9 W
28-Dec vs Texas 10-21 L 20.9 - 26.0 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 28.3 53 24.2 48
Adj. Points Per Game 26.5 82 23.6 13

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Nevada 63
8-Sep Southern Utah NR
15-Sep at Ohio State 20
22-Sep at USC 6
29-Sep Arizona State 60
6-Oct UCLA 58
13-Oct at Washington State 97
20-Oct Stanford 9
27-Oct at Utah 33
2-Nov Washington 59
10-Nov Oregon 5
17-Nov at Oregon State 74
Five-Year F/+ Rk 43
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 18
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -1 / -3.6
TO Luck/Game 1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (6, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** +0.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 44 64 54 66
RUSHING 62 67 43 80
PASSING 46 60 57 62
Standard Downs 76 71 76
Passing Downs 92 87 89
Redzone 77 71 81
Q1 Rk 23 1st Down Rk 89
Q2 Rk 72 2nd Down Rk 82
Q3 Rk 81 3rd Down Rk 44
Q4 Rk 115
Adj. Line Yards Rk 86
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 69

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Zach Maynard 6'2, 185 Sr. ** (5.0) 231 405 2,990 57.0% 17 12 26 6.0% 6.5
Allan Bridgford 6'3, 218 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 32 184 40.6% 0 0 0 0.0% 5.8
Kyle Boehm 6'3, 221 RSFr. *** (5.7)






Zach Kline 6'2, 210 Fr. **** (6.0)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Isi Sofele TB 5'8, 183 Sr. *** (5.6) 250 1,320 5.3 2.1 10 -11.3
C.J. Anderson TB 5'11, 214 Sr. *** (5.6) 73 350 4.8 1.8 8 +6.2
Zach Maynard QB 6'2, 185 Sr. ** (5.0) 58 300 5.2 2.6 4 +0.9
Dasarte Yarnway TB 6'0, 225 Jr. **** (5.8) 11 36 3.3 0.3 1 -1.4
Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson TB 10 40 4.0 1.2 1 +0.2
Mike Manuel WR 5'9, 198 Sr. NR 10 37 3.7 0.7 0 -1.9
Brendan Bigelow RB 5'10, 188 So. **** (5.8) 6 25 4.2 1.4 0 -0.9

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Keenan Allen WR 6'3, 206 Jr. ***** (6.1) 147 97 1,336 66.0% 35.4% 56.5% 8.7
Marvin Jones WR 122 62 846 50.8% 29.4% 58.2% 4.5
Anthony Miller TE 39 24 263 61.5% 9.4% 61.5% 5.8
Michael Calvin WR 37 20 269 54.1% 8.9% 37.8% 4.8
Spencer Hagan TE 6'5, 227 Jr. ** (5.3) 21 12 94 57.1% 5.1% 57.1% 3.4
Isi Sofele TB 5'8, 183 Sr. *** (5.6) 11 6 33 54.5% 2.7% 54.5% 0.3
C.J. Anderson TB 5'11, 214 Sr. *** (5.6) 8 7 186 87.5% 1.9% 50.0% 31.2
C. DeBoskie-Johnson TB 8 4 42 50.0% 1.9% 100.0% 1.8
Richard Rodgers TE 6'4, 265 So. *** (5.7)






Maurice Harris WR 6'3, 206 RSFr. *** (5.7)






Bryce Treggs WR 5'11, 171 Fr. **** (5.9)






Darius Powe WR 6'2, 186 Fr. **** (5.8)






Cedric Dozier WR 5'11, 175 Fr. **** (5.8)






Kenny Lawler WR 6'3, 175 Fr. **** (5.8)






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Mitchell Schwartz LT 51 career starts, 2011 1st All-Pac-12
Justin Cheadle RG 35 career starts
Matt Summers-Gavin RT 6'4, 295 Sr. **** (5.9) 25 career starts
Brian Schwenke C 6'4, 300 Sr. *** (5.6) 24 career starts
Dominic Galas RG 6'1, 290 Sr. *** (5.7) 14 career starts
Justin Gates LG 1 career start
Bill Tyndall LT 6'4, 280 Jr. NR
Chris Adcock C 6'3, 300 So. *** (5.5)
Mark Brazinski RG 6'3, 295 Jr. **** (5.8)
Tyler Rigsbee LT 6'5, 288 Sr. **** (5.8)
Alejandro Crosthwaite LG 6'4, 304 So. **** (5.8)
Geoffrey Gibson RG 6'3, 313 So. *** (5.6)
Jordan Rigsbee LG 6'4, 306 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Brian Farley RT 6'7, 291 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Freddie Tagaloa OL 6'8, 300 Fr. **** (5.8)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 25 25 16 32
RUSHING 35 44 35 51
PASSING 37 17 8 27
Standard Downs 15 16 24
Passing Downs 43 34 52
Redzone 44 18 64
Q1 Rk 18 1st Down Rk 16
Q2 Rk 33 2nd Down Rk 22
Q3 Rk 28 3rd Down Rk 44
Q4 Rk 31
Adj. Line Yards Rk 5
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 19

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Trevor Guyton DE 13 33.0 4.8% 12 5.5 2 2
Ernest Owusu DE 13 22.5 3.3% 7.5 4.5 2 1
Aaron Tipoti DE 6'2, 274 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 19.0 2.8% 4 1.5 1 1
Deandre Coleman DE 6'5, 311 Jr. **** (5.9) 13 16.0 2.3% 6 2
Kendrick Payne NG 6'2, 274 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 13.0 1.9% 3 2
Mustafa Jalil DE 6'2, 302 So. **** (5.8) 13 10.5 1.5% 1 0.5 1
Brennan Scarlett DE 6'4, 255 So. **** (5.8) 3 3.0 0.4% 0.5
Keni Kaufusi DE 6'1, 282 Sr. ** (5.3) 8 1.0 0.1% 0.5
Todd Barr DE 6'3, 260 RSFr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Mychal Kendricks ILB 13 87.5 12.8% 14.5 3 2 2 2
D.J. Holt ILB 13 64.0 9.3% 10.5 2 2
Chris McCain OLB 6'6, 230 So. **** (5.8) 10 22.5 3.3% 6 1.5
Khairi Fortt^ ILB 6'2, 238 Jr. **** (6.0) 13 21.5 3.0% 6 2.5
Dan Camporeale OLB 6'3, 243 Jr. NR 13 14.5 2.1% 4.5 1
Cecil Whiteside OLB 6'2, 229 So. **** (6.0) 10 14.5 2.1% 4 3 1 2
J.P. Hurrell ILB 5'11, 235 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 11.5 1.7% 1
David Wilkerson ILB 6'2, 238 So. **** (5.8) 10 10.5 1.5% 5.5 4
Robert Mullins ILB 6'0, 228 Sr. *** (5.7) 12 7.5 1.1% 1 1
Ryan Davis LB 10 6.0 0.9% 1 1 1
Steven Fanua LB 6'0, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 2 1.5 0.2%
Ted Agu LB 6'1, 246 So. ** (5.1) 1 1.5 0.2%
Nick Forbes ILB 6'1, 236 So. **** (5.9)
Nathan Broussard OLB 6'3, 246 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Michael Barton LB 6'1, 200 Fr. **** (5.8)

^ Fortt is a Penn State transfer, eligible immediately.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Sean Cattouse S 13 61.5 9.0% 3.5 1 2 2 2
D.J. Campbell S 13 58.5 8.5% 2.5 2 5 1 2
Steve Williams CB 5'10, 185 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 41.0 6.0% 1 2 11 1
Josh Hill S 5'10, 202 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 40.0 5.8% 3 1 2 5 1
Marc Anthony CB 6'2, 200 Sr. **** (5.8) 11 34.0 5.0% 5 1 12
Stefan McClure CB 5'11, 188 So. **** (5.8) 11 19.5 2.8% 1 1 2 1
Michael Coley DB 9 10.5 1.5% 2
C.J. Moncrease S 13 9.5 1.4% 0.5 0.5 1
Avery Sebastian S 5'10, 201 So. NR 12 7.5 1.1%
Kameron Jackson CB 5'9, 180 So. *** (5.7) 6 5.0 0.7%
Alex Logan S 6'2, 205 Jr. *** (5.7) 11 3.5 0.5%
Michael Lowe S 5'11, 218 So. NR

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Bryan Anger 53 44.2 6 13 19 60.4%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Giorgio Tavecchio 76 61.2 7 9.2%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Giorgio Tavecchio 36-42 15-16 93.8% 5-7 71.4%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Brendan Bigelow KR 5'10, 188 So. 23 20.7 1
Mike Manuel KR 5'9, 198 Sr. 12 21.5 0
Marvin Jones PR 14 7.3 0
Keenan Allen PR 6'3, 205 Jr. 4 8.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 57
Net Punting 10
Net Kickoffs 84
Touchback Pct 85
Field Goal Pct 7
Kick Returns Avg 92
Punt Returns Avg 92

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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