2012 Buffalo Bulls Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 104
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Pittsburgh 16-35 L 26.6 - 32.9 L
10-Sep Stony Brook 35-7 W 28.3 - 30.6 L
17-Sep at Ball State 25-28 L 26.5 - 30.6 L
24-Sep Connecticut 3-17 L 22.0 - 28.2 L
1-Oct at Tennessee 10-41 L 22.9 - 33.7 L
8-Oct Ohio 38-37 W 33.4 - 30.0 W
15-Oct at Temple 0-34 L 18.3 - 29.6 L
22-Oct Northern Illinois 30-31 L 29.5 - 24.1 W
29-Oct at Miami (Ohio) 13-41 L 21.9 - 34.3 L
12-Nov at Eastern Michigan 17-30 L 25.3 - 30.0 L
19-Nov Akron 51-10 W 29.3 - 27.1 W
25-Nov Bowling Green 28-42 L 21.9 - 28.7 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 22.2 97 29.4 83
Adj. Points Per Game 25.5 94 30.0 100

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Georgia 7
8-Sep Morgan State NR
19-Sep Kent State 92
29-Sep at Connecticut 53
6-Oct at Ohio 61
13-Oct at Northern Illinois 57
20-Oct Pittsburgh 41
27-Oct Toledo 71
3-Nov Miami (Ohio) 77
10-Nov Western Michigan 69
17-Nov at Massachusetts 116
23-Nov at Bowling Green 64
Five-Year F/+ Rk 98
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 119
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -2 / +0.3
TO Luck/Game -1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 80 87 89 86
RUSHING 60 54 69 54
PASSING 76 103 97 103
Standard Downs 99 106 92
Passing Downs 78 56 84
Redzone 110 102 112
Q1 Rk 83 1st Down Rk 98
Q2 Rk 83 2nd Down Rk 79
Q3 Rk 101 3rd Down Rk 102
Q4 Rk 89
Adj. Line Yards Rk 51
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 46

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Chazz Anderson 230 406 2,454 56.7% 11 9 21 4.9% 5.4
Alex Zordich 6'2, 224 Jr. ** (5.3) 5 12 41 41.7% 0 0 1 7.7% 2.5
Joe Licata 6'2, 217 RSFr. *** (5.5)






Collin Michael 6'5, 225 Fr. *** (5.5)






Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Branden Oliver RB 5'8, 204 Jr. *** (5.5) 306 1,395 4.6 1.8 13 +0.5
Chazz Anderson QB 64 442 6.9 3.0 7 +10.9
Jeffvon Gill RB 19 64 3.4 1.1 1 -2.0
Anthone Taylor RB 5'10, 202 So. ** (5.3) 4 20 5.0 2.1 0 -1.0
Brandon Murie RB 5'9, 188 Jr. NR 4 33 8.3 2.8 0 -0.1

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Marcus Rivers WR 105 60 603 57.1% 26.6% 58.1% 4.4
Alex Neutz WR 6'4, 209 Jr. ** (4.9) 74 43 645 58.1% 18.8% 52.7% 7.0
Branden Oliver RB 5'8, 204 Jr. *** (5.5) 50 38 342 76.0% 12.7% 40.0% 7.1
Ed Young WR 48 27 353 56.3% 12.2% 68.8% 4.9
Devon Hughes WR 6'1, 191 So. *** (5.5) 36 18 123 50.0% 9.1% 44.4% 2.0
Fred Lee WR 6'2, 204 Jr. ** (5.2) 34 20 162 58.8% 8.6% 58.8% 3.7
Terrell Jackson WR 26 15 130 57.7% 6.6% 53.8% 3.9
Jimmy Gordon TE 6'4, 260 Jr. ** (4.9) 9 5 44 55.6% 2.3% 77.8% 7.1
Alex Dennison TE 6'2, 249 Jr. ** (4.9) 5 5 75 100.0% 1.3% 80.0% 16.4
Marcus McGill WR 6'1, 190 Fr. ** (5.4)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Matt Ostrowski LT 26 career starts
Graham Whinery C 6'4, 297 Sr. ** (4.9) 24 career starts
Andre Davis RG 6'4, 305 So. ** (5.2) 12 career starts
Gokhan Ozkan RT 6'7, 330 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 career starts
Pat Wilson T 6'5, 290 Jr. ** (4.9) 11 career starts, injured in 2011
Jasen Carlson LG 6'3, 307 Jr. ** (5.2) 7 career starts
Dillon Guy LG 6'4, 317 So. ** (5.2) 6 career starts
Gabriel Barbe OL 6'6, 300 So. NR
Jake Silas OL 6'6, 323 So. NR
Trevor Sales C 6'1, 314 So. ** (5.4)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 63 108 76 112
RUSHING 86 88 52 101
PASSING 36 108 100 117
Standard Downs 109 100 113
Passing Downs 102 85 105
Redzone 97 89 99
Q1 Rk 86 1st Down Rk 95
Q2 Rk 116 2nd Down Rk 111
Q3 Rk 109 3rd Down Rk 94
Q4 Rk 54
Adj. Line Yards Rk 70
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 97

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Colby Way DL 6'4, 270 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 38.0 5.5% 7.5 3
Richie Smith NG 12 33.0 4.8% 5.5 1 1
Steven Means DL 6'3, 260 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 24.0 3.5% 3.5 2.5 1 3 1
Gordon Dubois DL 12 19.0 2.8% 3.5 2
Wyatt Cahill DT 6'4, 285 Sr. ** (5.3) 12 11.0 1.6% 1 1
Kristjan Sokoli DE 6'6, 293 So. ** (5.2) 10 9.0 1.3% 4 1
Albert McCoy DE 6'5, 265 Fr. ** (5.4)

Beau Bachtelle DE 6'5, 255 Jr. ** (5.2)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Fred Branch ILB 12 64.5 9.4% 4.5 1 1 1
Lee Skinner ILB 6'2, 237 So. NR 12 59.0 8.6% 5 2 1
Khalil Mack OLB 6'3, 244 Jr. ** (4.9) 12 51.5 7.5% 20.5 5.5 1 2 5
Jaleel Verser OLB 6'6, 239 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 38.5 5.6% 6 1
Scott Pettigrew ILB 6'1, 227 Sr. ** (5.0) 12 27.5 4.0% 1
Dalonte Wallace LB 6'2, 218 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 8.5 1.2% 1
Mark Richardson LB 6 6.5 0.9%
Jake Stockman ILB 6'2, 240 So. ** (5.4) 10 6.5 0.9%
Khari Brown ILB 6'0, 234 So. ** (5.4) 11 6.0 0.9%
Kendall Roberson OLB 6'1, 231 So. ** (5.2) 2 4.0 0.6%

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Josh Copeland S 12 59.5 8.7% 1 4
Cortney Lester CB 6'0, 184 So. ** (5.2) 12 44.0 6.4% 2 1 2 4
Najja Johnson CB 6'0, 194 Jr. NR 12 35.0 5.1% 1 1 15
Okoye Houston S 6'0, 202 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 29.5 4.3% 1 1 2
Isaac Baugh S 5'11, 205 Sr. ** (4.9) 11 27.0 3.9% 1 3 1
Joe Petit DB 10 20.5 3.0% 1
Derek Brim DB 6'0, 193 Jr. NR 10 8.0 1.2%
Dwellie Striggles DB 5'10, 177 So. ** (5.4) 4 6.5 0.9% 1
Carlos Lammons DB 5'8, 176 Jr. ** (4.9) 10 6.0 0.9%
Brandon Berry DB 6'0, 195 Fr. ** (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Jacob Schum 61 39.0 1 24 11 57.4%
Peter Fardon 9 32.9 1 3 8 122.2%*
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Patrick Clarke 6'2, 205 So. 54 60.7 7 13.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Peter Fardon 17-20 4-7 57.1% 1-3 33.3%
Patrick Clarke 6'2, 205 So. 10-10 3-3 100.0% 3-3 100.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Terrell Jackson KR 24 19.7 0
Jeffvon Gill KR 20 18.5 0
Brandon Murie KR 5'9, 188 Jr. 7 28.4 0
Terrell Jackson PR 12 6.6 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 103
Net Punting 97
Net Kickoffs 81
Touchback Pct 65
Field Goal Pct 62
Kick Returns Avg 102
Punt Returns Avg 99

* Because a punt can be both fair-caught and inside the 20, it is possible for the FC/I20 Ratio to go over 100%.

---

Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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