2012 Bowling Green Falcons Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 75
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
1-Sep at Idaho 32-15 W 27.6 - 28.2 L
10-Sep Morgan State 58-13 W 28.8 - 25.6 W
17-Sep Wyoming 27-28 L 26.4 - 26.6 L
24-Sep at Miami (Ohio) 37-23 W 29.9 - 24.4 W
1-Oct at West Virginia 10-55 L 20.6 - 33.1 L
8-Oct at Western Michigan 21-45 L 30.6 - 32.4 L
15-Oct Toledo 21-28 L 23.2 - 28.7 L
22-Oct Temple 13-10 W 26.4 - 24.0 W
29-Oct at Kent State 15-27 L 29.5 - 32.7 L
8-Nov Northern Illinois 14-45 L 24.6 - 31.2 L
16-Nov Ohio 28-29 L 34.3 - 29.0 W
25-Nov at Buffalo 42-28 W 26.7 - 25.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 26.5 63 28.8 77
Adj. Points Per Game 27.4 60 28.4 75

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Florida 13
8-Sep Idaho 118
15-Sep at Toledo 71
22-Sep at Virginia Tech 22
29-Sep Rhode Island NR
6-Oct at Akron 123
13-Oct Miami (Ohio) 77
20-Oct at Massachusetts 116
27-Oct Eastern Michigan 91
7-Nov at Ohio 61
17-Nov Kent State 92
23-Nov Buffalo 107
Five-Year F/+ Rk 84
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 108
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -13 / -7.8
TO Luck/Game -2.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 17 (7, 10)
Yds/Pt Margin** +0.4

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 62 58 58 60
RUSHING 91 93 66 104
PASSING 31 48 50 47
Standard Downs 75 78 71
Passing Downs 82 73 79
Redzone 98 86 98
Q1 Rk 69 1st Down Rk 60
Q2 Rk 71 2nd Down Rk 81
Q3 Rk 55 3rd Down Rk 81
Q4 Rk 92
Adj. Line Yards Rk 101
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 49

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Matt Schilz 6'2, 211 Jr. *** (5.6) 245 412 3,024 59.5% 28 13 22 5.1% 6.6
Trent Hurley


9 16 115 56.3% 0 1 1 5.9% 6.3
Matt Johnson 5'11, 212 RSFr. *** (5.5)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Anthon Samuel TB 5'11, 183 So. ** (5.3) 144 844 5.9 2.8 5 +3.3
Jamel Martin TB 5'10, 191 So. *** (5.6) 78 280 3.6 1.1 3 -5.6
Jordan Hopgood TB 5'11, 212 Jr. ** (5.3) 60 213 3.6 0.9 4 -5.3
Matt Schilz QB 6'2, 211 Jr. *** (5.6) 29 78 2.7 1.2 0 -8.2
Erique Geiger TB


19 52 2.7 0.4 0 -3.0
John Pettigrew TB 5'8, 180 Sr. ** (5.4) 17 63 3.7 1.2 1 -1.8
Andre Givens^ TB 5'10, 185 So. *** (5.7)





^ Givens originally signed with Pittsburgh and may or may not be eligible this fall.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Kamar Jorden WR-X 127 78 1,089 61.4% 30.8% 53.5% 7.8
Eugene Cooper SLOT 102 67 808 65.7% 24.7% 55.9% 7.5
Shaun Joplin WR-Z 6'2, 197 Jr. NR 38 21 292 55.3% 9.2% 36.8% 5.1
Alex Bayer TE 6'4, 256 Jr. ** (5.3) 32 20 242 62.5% 7.7% 46.9% 7.4
Adrian Hodges WR-Z 28 15 197 53.6% 6.8% 50.0% 4.6
Ray Hutson WR-Z 26 12 175 46.2% 6.3% 57.7% 3.4
Anthon Samuel TB 5'11, 183 So. ** (5.3) 21 15 93 71.4% 5.1% 76.2% 4.9
Tyler Beck FB 6'4, 250 Jr. ** (5.2) 15 8 97 53.3% 3.6% 66.7% 4.2
Jordan Hopgood TB 5'11, 212 Jr. ** (5.3) 8 7 53 87.5% 1.9% 37.5% 7.0
Justus Jones WR-X 5 4 49 80.0% 1.2% 60.0% 10.6
Je'Ron Stokes (2009-10^) WR 6'0, 196 Jr. **** (5.9) 6 3 27 50.0% 0.8% 50.0% 4.5
Michael Allen WR 5'11, 170 Jr. ** (5.2)






Jared Cohen WR 6'2, 195 Jr. NR






^ Stokes is a Michigan transfer and will be eligible this fall.

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Ben Bojicic C 42 career starts
Chip Robinson LG 6'5, 310 Sr. ** (5.1) 22 career starts
Dominic Flewellyn RG 6'3, 291 Jr. ** (5.3) 20 career starts
Jordon Roussos RT 6'4, 296 Sr. ** (5.0) 19 career starts
Dominique Wharton LG 6'3, 298 Sr. ** (5.3) 8 career starts
Kyle Bryant LT 6'5, 306 Jr. ** (5.1) 7 career starts
Scott Lewis C 4 career starts
Nick Hager LT 6'2, 307 So. NR
Isaiah Byler RG 6'3, 286 So. ** (5.3)
Scott Hodges RT 6'7, 294 Sr. ** (5.4)
David Kekuewa OL 6'3, 315 Jr. ** (5.4)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 79 78 92 73
RUSHING 104 99 107 95
PASSING 34 59 53 60
Standard Downs 103 113 93
Passing Downs 37 28 41
Redzone 84 95 74
Q1 Rk 83 1st Down Rk 109
Q2 Rk 89 2nd Down Rk 75
Q3 Rk 77 3rd Down Rk 42
Q4 Rk 87
Adj. Line Yards Rk 111
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 91

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Chris Jones DT 6'1, 295 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 36.0 5.2% 14 8.5 1 3
Kevin Moore DE 12 23.0 3.3% 2 1.5
Charlie Walker DE 6'2, 228 So. *** (5.5) 12 21.5 3.1% 4 1 1
Jairus Campbell NT 6'5, 295 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 14.0 2.0% 3 1
Ronnie Goble DE 6'2, 240 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 13.5 2.0% 4 1 2 1
Ted Ouellet NT 6'3, 276 Jr. ** (4.9) 9 12.5 1.8% 1.5 1 1
Zach Colvin DE 6'2, 271 So. *** (5.5) 10 9.0 1.3% 2 1
Hunter Maynard NT 6'0, 317 So. ** (5.3) 7 3.5 0.5% 1
Mike Minns DT 6'1, 285 Fr. *** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Dwayne Woods MLB 6'1, 227 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 84.0 12.2% 14 2 1 1 2 2
Paul Swan BUCK 6'0, 226 Jr. ** (5.2) 12 43.0 6.2% 1.5 1 1
D.J. Lynch BUCK 5'11, 238 So. *** (5.5) 12 33.0 4.8% 5 3
Gabe Martin MLB 6'1, 220 So. ** (5.4) 11 21.5 3.1% 1 1 1
Jhalil Croley LB 6'3, 225 Fr. *** (5.5)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Boo Boo Gates ROV 5'10, 209 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 59.0 8.5% 2 1 2 3 1
Ryland Ward STUD 5'9, 204 So. ** (5.4) 12 58.0 8.4% 0.5 1 3 1
Aaron Foster WHIP 5'10, 202 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 57.5 8.3% 3 1
Cameron Truss CB 5'10, 189 Jr. ** (5.2) 10 44.5 6.4% 1 1 8 1
Keith Morgan ROV 11 29.5 4.3% 3.5 2 2
DeVon McKoy CB 5'10, 189 So. ** (5.4) 8 29.0 4.2% 1 4
Darrell Hunter CB 5'8, 176 So. ** (5.4) 10 28.0 4.1% 1.5 1 5
Jovan Leacock STUD 11 18.0 2.6% 0.5
Jude Adjei-Barimah WHIP 5'10, 194 So. ** (5.3) 12 13.0 1.9%
Brian Sutton DB 5'11, 186 So. ** (5.2) 11 7.0 1.0% 1
Josh Pettus DB 5'10, 190 Jr. *** (5.5)
James Sanford DB 6'2, 181 Fr. *** (5.5)
William Watson DB 5'11, 180 Fr. *** (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Brian Schmiedebusch 6'4, 214 Jr. 57 45.3 8 11 18 50.9%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Kyle Burkhardt 5'11, 181 Jr. 49 57.7 1 2.0%
Jerry Phillips 6'1, 218 Sr. 8 65.9 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Stephen Stein 5'11, 186 Sr. 24-25 8-10 80.0% 0-1 0.0%
Kyle Burkhardt 5'11, 181 Jr. 13-16 1-1 100.0% 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Boo Boo Gates KR 5'10, 209 Jr. 38 25.8 1
Steven Dunlap KR 11 19.1 0
Eugene Cooper PR 17 6.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 47
Net Punting 5
Net Kickoffs 87
Touchback Pct 108
Field Goal Pct 61
Kick Returns Avg 55
Punt Returns Avg 92

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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