2012 Boston College Eagles Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 69
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Northwestern 17-24 L 24.2 - 28.5 L
10-Sep at Central Florida 3-30 L 19.5 - 29.0 L
17-Sep Duke 19-20 L 22.4 - 31.8 L
24-Sep Massachusetts 45-17 W 24.6 - 29.9 L
1-Oct Wake Forest 19-27 L 22.5 - 29.3 L
8-Oct at Clemson 14-36 L 24.6 - 29.4 L
22-Oct at Virginia Tech 14-30 L 27.5 - 29.9 L
29-Oct at Maryland 28-17 W 28.2 - 26.1 W
3-Nov Florida State 7-38 L 23.8 - 30.1 L
12-Nov N.C. State 14-10 W 26.4 - 24.1 W
19-Nov at Notre Dame 14-16 L 25.2 - 24.1 W
25-Nov at Miami 24-17 W 26.3 - 24.8 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 18.2 112 23.5 43
Adj. Points Per Game 24.6 104 28.1 68

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Miami 36
8-Sep Maine NR
15-Sep at Northwestern 68
29-Sep Clemson 21
6-Oct at Army 104
13-Oct at Florida State 7
20-Oct at Georgia Tech 30
27-Oct Maryland 72
3-Nov at Wake Forest 81
10-Nov Notre Dame 14
17-Nov Virginia Tech 18
24-Nov at N.C. State 53
Five-Year F/+ Rk 36
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 44
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -4 / +0.0
TO Luck/Game -1.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 18 (9, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.3

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 112 100 99 99
RUSHING 82 95 98 85
PASSING 100 98 83 106
Standard Downs 109 94 113
Passing Downs 72 83 60
Redzone 55 41 72
Q1 Rk 67 1st Down Rk 100
Q2 Rk 64 2nd Down Rk 95
Q3 Rk 107 3rd Down Rk 87
Q4 Rk 118
Adj. Line Yards Rk 106
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 88

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Chase Rettig 6'2, 213 Jr. *** (5.7) 170 317 1,960 53.6% 12 9 24 7.0% 5.4
Josh Bordner 6'4, 221 So. *** (5.5) 1 2 37 50.0% 0 1 0 0.0% 18.5
Dave Shinskie 6'4, 209 Sr. ** 1 2 3 50.0% 0 0 0 0.0% 1.5

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Rolandan Finch RB 5'10, 211 Jr. *** (5.6) 157 705 4.5 1.3 3 -11.7
Andre Williams RB 6'0, 220 Jr. *** (5.7) 124 517 4.2 1.6 4 -4.3
Tahj Kimble RB 5'11, 211 So. *** (5.6) 43 156 3.6 0.6 1 -3.2
Montel Harris RB 31 135 4.4 2.0 0 -3.6
Josh Bordner QB 6'4, 221 So. *** (5.5) 19 73 3.8 1.1 2 +0.5
Chase Rettig QB 6'2, 213 Jr. *** (5.7) 17 47 2.8 0.7 1 -1.6

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Bobby Swigert WR 6'1, 186 Jr. *** (5.7) 78 44 476 56.4% 27.2% 52.6% 4.5
Colin Larmond, Jr. WR 6'3, 202 Sr. *** (5.7) 65 34 554 52.3% 22.6% 46.2% 6.0
Alex Amidon WR 5'11, 186 Jr. ** (5.4) 33 20 220 60.6% 11.5% 51.5% 5.8
Chris Pantale TE 6'6, 255 Sr. *** (5.7) 30 21 236 70.0% 10.5% 46.7% 8.0
Rolandan Finch RB 5'10, 211 Jr. *** (5.6) 14 11 98 78.6% 4.9% 35.7% 6.0
Johnathan Coleman WR 6'4, 228 Jr. ** (5.4) 13 5 55 38.5% 4.5% 23.1% 0.5
Ifeanyi Momah WR 12 8 157 66.7% 4.2% 41.7% 17.2
Tahj Kimble RB 5'11, 211 So. *** (5.6) 12 8 67 66.7% 4.2% 58.3% 5.1
Lars Anderson TE 11 10 81 90.9% 3.8% 63.6% 9.6
Montel Harris RB 6 3 36 50.0% 2.1% 50.0% 2.3
Spiffy Evans WR 6'0, 184 So. *** (5.7)
Brian Miller WR 6'4, 232 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Michael Giacone TE 6'6', 249 Fr. *** (5.6)

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Mark Spinney C 26 career starts
Emmett Cleary RT 6'7, 300 Sr. *** (5.5) 26 career starts
Nathan Richman LG 22 career starts
Ian White RG 6'5, 288 Jr. ** (5.3) 14 career starts
John Wetzel LT 6'8, 303 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 career starts
Bobby Vardaro LG 6'5, 301 So. *** (5.7) 8 career starts
Andy Gallik C 6'3, 284 So. *** (5.5) 3 career starts
Bryan Davis OG 6'3, 289 Jr. ** (5.2) 1 career start
Mike Goodman, Jr. OT 1 career start
Aaron Kramer LT 6'7, 296 So. ** (5.4)
Seth Betancourt RT 6'6, 304 So. *** (5.7)
Harris Williams RG 6'4, 298 So. *** (5.5)
Win Homer OL 6'5, 250 Fr. **** (5.8)
Jim Cashman OL 6'7, 285 Fr. *** (5.7)
Frank Taylor OL 6'3, 285 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 70 43 46 40
RUSHING 59 65 53 76
PASSING 81 28 38 28
Standard Downs 54 66 50
Passing Downs 30 18 38
Redzone 59 84 42
Q1 Rk 48 1st Down Rk 34
Q2 Rk 58 2nd Down Rk 76
Q3 Rk 26 3rd Down Rk 48
Q4 Rk 67
Adj. Line Yards Rk 80
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 119

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Max Holloway DE 12 38.0 5.7% 8 2.5 1 3 1
Kaleb Ramsey (2010) DT 6'3, 288 Sr. *** (5.6) 11 31.0 4.2% 7.5 2.5 1
Dominic Appiah DT 6'5, 291 So. *** (5.7) 10 27.5 4.2% 6.5 2 1 1
Kasim Edebali DE 6'2, 258 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 20.0 3.0% 0.5 5
Dillon Quinn DT 6'6, 312 Sr. **** (5.9) 10 15.5 2.3% 2.5 1
Conor O'Neal DT 9 13.0 2.0% 2 0.5
Dan Williams DE 11 5.0 0.8%
Max Ricci DT 6'4, 302 So. ** (5.4) 10 4.5 0.7%
Brian Mihalik DE 6'8, 285 So. *** (5.5) 8 3.5 0.5% 1 1 2
Mehdi Abdesmad DE 6'6, 270 So. *** (5.5) 3 2.5 0.4%
Connor Wujciak DT 6'4, 267 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Kieran Borcich DE 6'3, 264 RSFr. *** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Luke Kuechly MLB 12 146.5 22.2% 12 3 3
Kevin Pierre-Louis WLB 6'1, 215 Jr. **** (5.8) 9 55.5 8.4% 6 4 1 1
Steele Divitto SLB 6'3, 238 Jr. *** (5.5) 12 54.0 8.2% 3.5 2 1 5
Sean Duggan MLB 6'4, 228 So. *** (5.7) 9 26.0 3.9% 3 1 1 1
Nick Clancy WLB 6'3, 232 Sr. *** (5.7) 9 14.0 2.1% 1.5 2 1
Will Thompson MLB 11 7.0 1.1%
Andre Lawrence SLB 6'1, 229 Jr. *** (5.7) 10 3.0 0.5%
Nick Lifka MLB 6'2, 242 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Steven Daniels LB 6'0, 225 Fr. **** (5.8)
Mike Strizak LB 6'2, 228 Fr. *** (5.7)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Spenser Rositano SS 6'1, 200 So. ** (5.4) 10 30.0 4.5% 1
Hampton Hughes FS 12 29.5 4.5% 2 2 1
Sean Sylvia FS 6'0, 196 So. *** (5.5) 11 28.5 4.3% 1 1 2
Donnie Fletcher CB 11 28.0 4.2% 2 5
Jim Noel SS 6'4, 200 Sr. *** (5.7) 9 25.0 3.8% 3 1 1 1
Manny Asprilla CB 5'10, 167 So. ** (5.4) 8 21.0 3.2% 1.5 1 3
Dominique Williams SS 6'0, 212 So. ** (5.3) 10 14.0 2.1%
Al Louis-Jean CB 6'2, 195 So. **** (5.8) 9 13.0 2.0% 1 3 1
James McCaffrey CB 5'10, 187 So. ** (5.4) 11 6.5 1.0%
Josh Keyes FS 6'2, 208 So. ** (5.4) 9 6.0 0.9%
C.J. Jones CB 5'11, 185 So. *** (5.5) 2 3.5 0.5%
Justin Simmons DB 6'3, 175 Fr. *** (5.6)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ryan Quigley 69 38.5 2 38 28 95.7%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Ryan Quigley 47 63.9 7 14.9%
Nate Freese 6'0, 181 Jr. 2 44 1 50.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Nate Freese 6'0, 181 Jr. 26-27 6-9 66.7% 5-7 71.4%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Spiffy Evans KR 6'0, 184 So. 23 21.1 0
Tahj Kimble KR 5'11, 211 So. 17 20.3 0
Bobby Swigert KR 6'1, 186 Jr. 3 19.7 0
Bobby Swigert PR 6'1, 186 Jr. 12 6.4 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 54
Net Punting 53
Net Kickoffs 39
Touchback Pct 49
Field Goal Pct 91
Kick Returns Avg 93
Punt Returns Avg 89

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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