2012 Baylor Bears Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 29
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
2-Sep TCU 50-48 W 42.2 - 27.6 W
17-Sep Stephen F. Austin 48-0 W 34.6 - 21.5 W
24-Sep Rice 56-31 W 34.4 - 31.2 W
1-Oct at Kansas State 35-36 L 33.4 - 29.5 W
8-Oct Iowa State 49-26 W 34.4 - 29.4 W
15-Oct at Texas A&M 28-55 L 33.9 - 32.0 W
29-Oct at Oklahoma State 24-59 L 30.4 - 31.6 L
5-Nov Missouri 42-39 W 38.5 - 30.3 W
12-Nov at Kansas 31-30 W 27.5 - 30.1 L
19-Nov Oklahoma 45-38 W 38.9 - 29.3 W
26-Nov vs Texas Tech 66-42 W 29.2 - 30.3 L
3-Dec Texas 48-24 W 43.6 - 28.8 W
29-Dec vs Washington 67-56 W 36.9 - 32.4 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 45.3 4 37.2 113
Adj. Points Per Game 35.2 2 29.5 91

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep SMU 65
15-Sep Sam Houston NR
22-Sep at UL-Monroe 90
29-Sep at West Virginia 17
13-Oct TCU 21
20-Oct at Texas 10
27-Oct at Iowa State 85
3-Nov Kansas 105
10-Nov at Oklahoma 3
17-Nov Kansas State 35
24-Nov vs. Texas Tech 38
1-Dec Oklahoma State 4
Five-Year F/+ Rk 74
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 40
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +5 / +1.0
TO Luck/Game +1.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (6, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 2 5 5 5
RUSHING 10 7 8 13
PASSING 4 4 7 4
Standard Downs 4 4 5
Passing Downs 6 5 8
Redzone 17 6 28
Q1 Rk 14 1st Down Rk 3
Q2 Rk 6 2nd Down Rk 3
Q3 Rk 3 3rd Down Rk 46
Q4 Rk 4
Adj. Line Yards Rk 6
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 84

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Robert Griffin III 291 402 4,293 72.4% 37 6 27 6.3% 9.7
Nick Florence 6'1, 205 Sr. *** (5.5) 9 12 151 75.0% 2 0 2 14.3% 9.1
Bryce Petty 6'2, 230 So. *** (5.6)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Terrance Ganaway RB 249 1,538 6.2 2.6 21 +30.4
Robert Griffin III QB 152 848 5.6 2.3 10 +3.3
Jarred Salubi RB 5'9, 210 Sr. ** (5.4) 58 319 5.5 2.1 3 +2.7
Glasco Martin RB 6'1, 215 Jr. **** (5.8) 40 268 6.7 3.0 2 +2.7
Isaac Williams RB 12 29 2.4 0.1 0 -1.4
Kendall Wright IR 10 89 8.9 3.6 0 +0.7
Lache Seastrunk RB 5'10, 205 So. ***** (6.1)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Kendall Wright IR 145 108 1,672 74.5% 34.8% 71.7% 13.3
Terrence Williams WR 6'3, 205 Sr. ** (5.3) 83 59 957 71.1% 19.9% 56.6% 12.1
Darryl Stonum^ WR 6'2, 195 Sr. **** (6.0) 80 49 633 61.3% 19.8% 55.0% 8.2
Tevin Reese IR 5'10, 165 Jr. ** (5.4) 71 51 877 71.8% 17.0% 74.6% 13.3
Lanear Sampson WR 5'11, 200 Sr. *** (5.7) 61 43 572 70.5% 14.6% 63.9% 9.3
Jordan Najvar TE 6'6, 260 Jr. NR 17 15 146 88.2% 4.1% 82.4% 10.3
Jerod Monk TE 6'5, 275 Sr. ** (5.4) 9 9 100 100.0% 2.2% 55.6% 14.2
Levi Norwood IR 6'2, 190 So. *** (5.5) 8 6 87 75.0% 1.9% 25.0% 13.1
Terrance Ganaway RB 8 6 52 75.0% 1.9% 50.0% 7.1
Antwan Goodley WR 5'10, 220 So. *** (5.6) 3 2 26 66.7% 0.7% 33.3% 8.7
Clay Fuller IR 6'1, 200 So. NR 1 1 4 100.0% 0.2% 100.0% 4.0
Michael Valdez IR 5'10, 185 Sr. NR
Corey Coleman WR 5'11, 180 Fr. **** (5.8)
Kiante' Griffin WR 6'0, 200 Fr. *** (5.7)

^ Stonum is a Michigan transfer, likely to be eligible immediately.

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Robert T. Griffin RG 22 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Big 12
Philip Blake C 37 career starts, 2011 1st All-Big 12
Ivory Wade C 6'4, 310 Sr. **** (5.8) 33 career starts
Cameron Kaufhold RG 6'4, 300 Sr. ** (5.4) 26 career starts
Cyril Richardson LG 6'5, 335 Jr. *** (5.5) 17 career starts
Jake Jackson RG 6'3, 310 Sr. ** (5.4) 1 career start
Kelvin Palmer LT 6'4, 280 Jr. *** (5.5)
John Jones LG
Tim Smith LG 6'4, 295 So. *** (5.5)
Troy Baker RT 6'6, 310 So. *** (5.7)
Stefan Huber C 6'4, 285 Jr. *** (5.5)
Spencer Drango LT 6'6, 305 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Pat Colbert RT 6'5, 270 RSFr. *** (5.5)
Kyle Fuller OL 6'4, 270 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 116 81 65 86
RUSHING 102 62 57 65
PASSING 118 91 74 93
Standard Downs 90 62 99
Passing Downs 70 81 65
Redzone 67 71 62
Q1 Rk 69 1st Down Rk 78
Q2 Rk 81 2nd Down Rk 88
Q3 Rk 70 3rd Down Rk 75
Q4 Rk 93
Adj. Line Yards Rk 76
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 109

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Terrance Lloyd DE 6'3, 240 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 29.5 3.1% 7 2.5 1
Nicolas Jean-Baptiste NG 13 29.0 3.1% 8.5 4 3 1
Tevin Elliot DE


12 22.0 2.3% 8 3 1 1 1 2
Gary Mason, Jr. DE 6'4, 265 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 21.0 2.2% 8 2.5 2 1
Tracy Robertson DT 13 17.0 1.8% 6.5 4.5 1
Chris McAllister DE 6'2, 255 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 7.5 0.8% 1.5 1.5
Nick Johnson DT 6'2, 295 Sr. *** (5.6) 11 6.5 0.7% 1.5 0.5
Kaeron Johnson NG 6'2, 300 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 5.0 0.6%
Beau Blackshear DT 6'3, 285 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Trevor Clemons-Valdez NG 6'3, 295 RSFr. *** (5.6)
Javonte Magee DE 6'5, 265 Fr. **** (5.9)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Elliot Coffey MLB 13 84.5 9.0% 5 0.5 2 5 2 1
Rodney Chadwick MLB 6'0, 240 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 54.5 5.8% 2.5 5 1
Brody Trahan OLB 5'11, 220 Jr. ** (5.3) 13 25.5 2.7% 1 1
Bryce Hager MLB 6'1, 235 So. ** (5.3) 13 10.5 1.1% 1
Cordarius Golston LB 6'1, 220 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 8.0 0.9%
Eddie Lackey OLB 5'11, 220 Jr. *** (5.6)
Brian Nance LB 6'3, 210 Fr. **** (5.8)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Sam Holl SS 6'1, 200 Jr. *** (5.5) 13 98.0 10.4% 2.5 3 1 1
Mike Hicks FS 5'11, 195 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 88.0 9.4% 2.5 3 5 1
Ahmad Dixon ROV 6'0, 210 Jr. **** (5.9) 13 72.5 7.7% 5.5 1 3 3
K.J. Morton CB 5'10, 180 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 68.0 7.2% 1.5 4 6
Chance Casey FS 5'11, 185 Sr. *** (5.5) 8 44.0 4.7% 6 1
Joe Williams CB 5'10, 185 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 38.5 4.1% 1.5 1 12 3
Josh Wilson SS 6'0, 190 Sr. *** (5.5) 12 6.0 0.6%
LeQuince McCall ROV


13 5.0 0.5% 1 1
Tyler Stephenson CB 5'10, 170 Jr. **** (5.8) 3 0.5 0.1%
Prince Kent ROV 6'2, 220 Jr. **** (5.8)
Tuswani Copeland CB 5'10, 180 So. *** (5.5)
Ryan Reid DB 5'10, 180 Fr. *** (5.7)
Alavion Edwards DB 6'1, 210 Fr. *** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Spencer Roth 6'4, 230 So. 29 40.5 3 5 6 37.9%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Ben Parks 51 62.9 13 25.5%
Aaron Jones 6'3, 185 Jr. 50 65 10 20.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Aaron Jones 6'3, 185 Jr. 75-78 7-9 77.8% 3-8 37.5%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Antwaun Goodley KR 5'10, 210 So. 19 23.7 0
Darius Jones KR 5'10, 180 Jr. 12 20.1 0
Levi Norwood PR 6'2, 180 So. 12 8.2 0
Kendall Wright PR 5 7.4 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 105
Net Punting 118
Net Kickoffs 43
Touchback Pct 26
Field Goal Pct 102
Kick Returns Avg 96
Punt Returns Avg 63

---

Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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