2012 Ball State Cardinals Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-6 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 93
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Indiana 27-20 W 26.2 - 30.9 L
10-Sep at South Florida 7-37 L 19.8 - 29.8 L
17-Sep Buffalo 28-25 W 28.9 - 31.9 L
24-Sep Army 48-21 W 33.5 - 30.7 W
1-Oct at Oklahoma 6-62 L 15.9 - 32.4 L
8-Oct Temple 0-42 L 23.3 - 31.4 L
15-Oct at Ohio 23-20 W 25.9 - 27.5 L
22-Oct Central Michigan 31-27 W 29.6 - 31.4 L
29-Oct at Western Michigan 35-45 L 33.0 - 29.3 W
5-Nov at Eastern Michigan 33-31 W 29.6 - 31.8 L
15-Nov at Northern Illinois 38-41 L 27.1 - 30.4 L
25-Nov Toledo 28-45 L 28.3 - 29.0 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 25.3 72 34.7 103
Adj. Points Per Game 26.8 75 30.5 110

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug Eastern Michigan 91
8-Sep at Clemson 31
15-Sep at Indiana 98
22-Sep South Florida 25
29-Sep at Kent State 92
6-Oct Northern Illinois 57
13-Oct Western Michigan 69
20-Oct at Central Michigan 84
27-Oct at Army 95
6-Nov at Toledo 71
14-Nov Ohio 61
23-Nov at Miami (Ohio) 77
Five-Year F/+ Rk 88
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 118
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -1 / -0.7
TO Luck/Game -0.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (8, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** +0.3

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 68 65 53 76
RUSHING 77 60 73 59
PASSING 53 78 44 89
Standard Downs 72 60 82
Passing Downs 85 91 75
Redzone 39 38 48
Q1 Rk 73 1st Down Rk 90
Q2 Rk 50 2nd Down Rk 67
Q3 Rk 61 3rd Down Rk 49
Q4 Rk 99
Adj. Line Yards Rk 25
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 5

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Keith Wenning 6'4, 221 Jr. *** (5.5) 287 449 2,786 63.9% 19 11 11 2.4% 5.9
Kelly Page 6'3, 224 Sr. *** (5.5) 4 7 70 57.1% 0 0 0 0.0% 10.0

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Jahwan Edwards RB 5'10, 232 So. ** (5.2) 178 786 4.4 1.1 11 +4.6
Barrington Scott RB 5'11, 201 Jr. NR 89 370 4.2 1.0 1 -7.4
Dwayne Donigan RB 5'6, 177 Sr. NR 58 191 3.3 0.8 2 -2.2
Keith Wenning QB 6'4, 221 Jr. *** (5.5) 46 240 5.2 1.4 3 +0.6
Toney Williams (2010^) RB 6'0, 223 Jr. *** (5.6) 5 11 2.2 0.5 0 -1.3
Horactio Banks RB 5'10, 177 RSFr. ** (5.4)





^ Williams is a Tennessee transfer who will be eligible this fall.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Briggs Orsbon WR 101 66 644 65.3% 23.1% 67.3% 5.9
Jack Tomlinson WR 5'9, 176 Jr. ** (5.2) 67 43 394 64.2% 15.3% 62.7% 5.2
Torieal Gibson WR 66 45 519 68.2% 15.1% 66.7% 7.9
Jamill Smith WR 5'8, 138 Jr. NR 58 40 427 69.0% 13.2% 62.1% 7.2
Willie Snead WR 5'11, 190 So. *** (5.5) 45 28 327 62.2% 10.3% 57.8% 6.4
Connor Ryan WR 6'1, 188 Jr. ** (5.2) 35 23 234 65.7% 8.0% 54.3% 5.9
Zane Fakes TE 6'3, 230 Jr. ** (4.9) 26 18 155 69.2% 5.9% 76.9% 6.1
Jahwan Edwards RB 5'10, 232 So. ** (5.2) 12 11 43 91.7% 2.7% 33.3% 4.6
Aaron Mershman TE 6'2, 229 Jr. *** (5.5) 8 5 28 62.5% 1.8% 75.0% 3.0
David Schneider TE 6'3, 242 Jr. ** (5.3) 7 4 70 57.1% 1.6% 42.9% 7.2
Shane Belle WR 6'2, 193 So. NR






Trey Gardner WR 6'4, 205 RSFr. ** (5.4)






Jacolby Owens WR 6'3, 212 RSFr. ** (5.2)






Efe Scott-Emuakpor WR 6'5, 180 Fr. *** (5.5)






Jordan Williams WR 6'4, 200 Fr. ** (5.4)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Jordan Hansel RG 6'4, 321 Jr. ** (5.2) 14 career starts, 2011 2nd All-MAC
Dan Manick RT 6'4, 284 Sr. ** (4.9) 31 career starts
Kreg Hunter C 28 career starts
Kitt O'Brien LG 6'6, 322 Sr. ** (5.2) 26 career starts
Austin Holtz LT 6'5, 285 Sr. ** (5.2) 20 career starts
Cameron Lowry LT 6'6, 285 Sr. ** (5.1) 19 career starts
Chris Sparrow RG 6'2, 301 Sr. NR 3 career starts
Matthew Page LT 6'6, 287 Jr. ** (5.2) 1 career start

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 119 91 103 83
RUSHING 113 57 81 49
PASSING 115 107 112 101
Standard Downs 73 91 67
Passing Downs 114 111 114
Redzone 114 111 114
Q1 Rk 57 1st Down Rk 68
Q2 Rk 108 2nd Down Rk 96
Q3 Rk 107 3rd Down Rk 115
Q4 Rk 50
Adj. Line Yards Rk 97
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 93

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Andrew Puthoff DE 12 35.0 4.5% 10 2 1
Adam Morris DT 12 30.0 3.9% 4 1
Nathan Ollie DT 6'1, 290 Jr. ** (5.4) 12 27.5 3.5% 10 6 1 1 1
Ryan Hartke DE 12 25.5 3.3% 7 3 1
Nick Miles DE 6'2, 252 So. ** (5.4) 10 12.0 1.5% 1
Joel Cox DT 6'1, 267 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 8.0 1.0%
Donovan Jarrett DT 6'2, 302 Sr. ** (4.9) 11 5.0 0.6% 2 1
Jonathan Newsome (2010^) DE 6'3, 245 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 11.0 1.7%





Osazuwaman Igbinosun DE 6'4, 245 Fr. ** (5.2)








^ Newsome is an Ohio State transfer who will be eligible this fall.

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Travis Freeman LB 6'0, 234 Sr. ** (5.4) 12 88.5 11.4% 6 4 1 1
Aaron Morris^ LB 6'0, 220 Jr. ** (5.3) 12 81.5 10.5% 10 2 1 3 3
Tony Martin LB 6'1, 223 Sr. ** (5.3) 12 51.5 6.6% 3 2 1
Julian Boyd LB 6'2, 205 So. ** (5.3) 9 12.5 1.6%
Justin Cruz LB 5'11, 218 Sr. ** (5.2) 7 12.5 1.6% 3
Lorren Womack LB 9 3.5 0.5% 1 1 1

^ Morris is academically ineligible to play this fall.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Sean Baker S 10 69.5 9.0% 2 1 2 4 1 1
Joshua Howard S 11 63.0 8.1% 1 3 1 3
Jeffery Garrett CB 5'9, 181 Jr. ** (5.4) 11 49.0 6.3% 2 1 6
Armand Dehaney CB 5'8, 168 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 39.0 5.0% 2 1 1 1
Jason Pinkston CB 6'2, 189 Sr. ** (4.9) 8 27.0 3.5% 1 3 1 1
Kyle Hoke S 12 25.5 3.3% 1
Brian Jones S 5'10, 185 So. *** (5.5) 12 24.5 3.2% 1
Andre Dawson CB 6'0, 184 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 16.5 2.1% 3 1
Eric Patterson CB 5'10, 189 So. ** (5.4) 7 13.5 1.7%
Quintin Cooper CB 5'9, 178 Jr. *** (5.5) 3 9.5 1.2% 1 1
Joseph Fazio S 6'0, 201 Jr. NR 11 6.5 0.8%
Selwyn Frazier DB 6'2, 205 Jr. ** (5.4)
Chris Pauling S 5'9, 186 Fr. ** (5.3)








Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Scott Kovanda 6'3, 203 Sr. 61 43.5 6 12 22 55.7%
Scott Secor 5'9, 155 So. 3 36.3 0 0 1 33.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Scott Secor 5'9, 155 So. 56 61.9 5 8.9%
Steven Schott 6'1, 166 Sr. 2 60.5 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Steven Schott 6'1, 166 Sr. 37-37 13-14 92.9% 2-6 33.3%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Briggs Orsbon KR 31 19.9 0
Jamill Smith KR 5'8, 138 Jr. 23 23.3 0
Jamill Smith PR 5'8, 138 Jr. 8 10.9 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 44
Net Punting 17
Net Kickoffs 69
Touchback Pct 90
Field Goal Pct 40
Kick Returns Avg 74
Punt Returns Avg 28

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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