2012 Army Black Knights Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 106
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Northern Illinois 26-49 L 29.0 - 30.5 L
10-Sep San Diego State 20-23 L 28.9 - 31.0 L
17-Sep Northwestern 21-14 W 25.2 - 27.2 L
24-Sep at Ball State 21-48 L 27.8 - 33.6 L
1-Oct Tulane 45-6 W 32.9 - 21.2 W
8-Oct at Miami (Ohio) 28-35 L 31.7 - 33.1 L
22-Oct at Vanderbilt 21-44 L 24.9 - 32.8 L
29-Oct Fordham 55-0 W 35.7 - 10.7 W
5-Nov at Air Force 14-24 L 24.2 - 22.4 W
12-Nov vs Rutgers 12-27 L 25.4 - 32.2 L
19-Nov at Temple 14-42 L 30.9 - 34.7 L
10-Dec vs Navy 21-27 L 24.5 - 27.4 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 24.8 76 28.3 71
Adj. Points Per Game 28.4 47 28.1 67

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
8-Sep at San Diego State 86
15-Sep Northern Illinois 57
22-Sep at Wake Forest 80
29-Sep Stony Brook NR
6-Oct Boston College 42
13-Oct Kent State 92
20-Oct at Eastern Michigan 91
27-Oct Ball State 89
3-Nov Air Force 103
10-Nov at Rutgers 40
17-Nov Temple 73
8-Dec vs Navy 76
Five-Year F/+ Rk 106
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 101
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -9 / -9.5
TO Luck/Game 0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (6, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin** +3.3

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 49 81 59 96
RUSHING 1 66 44 79
PASSING 120 109 115 85
Standard Downs 52 32 64
Passing Downs 94 79 101
Redzone 54 31 78
Q1 Rk 51 1st Down Rk 57
Q2 Rk 97 2nd Down Rk 35
Q3 Rk 59 3rd Down Rk 89
Q4 Rk 30
Adj. Line Yards Rk 5
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 98

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Trent Steelman 6'0, 204 Sr. NR 24 45 424 53.3% 3 2 7 13.5% 7.3
Max Jenkins


6 31 97 19.4% 2 2 1 3.1% 2.8
Angel Santiago 5'11, 195 So. ** (5.4) 7 21 84 33.3% 0 0 2 8.7% 3.2

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Raymond Maples SB 6'1, 200 Jr. ** (5.1) 146 1,066 7.3 3.0 4 +7.9
Trent Steelman QB 6'0, 204 Sr. NR 125 692 5.5 2.6 12 +7.6
Jared Hassin FB 6'3, 230 Sr. NR 98 450 4.6 1.0 1 -8.8
Larry Dixon FB 6'0, 220 So. *** (5.5) 87 542 6.2 2.5 5 +6.2
Malcolm Brown SB 5'11, 180 Sr. ** (5.0) 81 572 7.1 2.8 3 +5.2
Angel Santiago QB 5'11, 195 So. ** (5.4) 43 173 4.0 1.6 1 -1.3
Max Jenkins QB 32 125 3.9 0.8 4 +0.1
Jonathan Crucitti SB 5'11, 195 Jr. NR 26 123 4.7 0.9 1 -0.4
Trenton Turrentine SB 5'9, 209 So. ** (5.4) 21 98 4.7 1.3 1 +1.4
Stephen Fraser SB 5'10, 185 So. ** (5.2) 14 77 5.5 1.6 0 -0.6

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Davyd Brooks WR 26 10 179 38.5% 29.2% 53.8% 1.6
Jared McFarlin WR 18 7 74 38.9% 20.2% 66.7% 1.1
Malcolm Brown SB 5'11, 180 Sr. ** (5.0) 12 7 163 58.3% 13.5% 33.3% 12.4
Anthony Stephens WR 6'2, 190 Jr. NR 11 2 54 18.2% 12.4% 90.9% -3.8
Austin Barr WR 8 4 42 50.0% 9.0% 37.5% 2.0
Chevaughn Lawrence WR 6'3, 190 So. NR 4 1 9 25.0% 4.5% 50.0% 2.3
Jared Hassin FB 6'3, 230 Sr. NR 3 2 39 66.7% 3.4% 66.7% 13.0
Larry Dixon FB 6'0, 220 So. *** (5.5) 3 1 25 33.3% 3.4% 66.7% 8.3
Raymond Maples SB 6'1, 200 Jr. ** (5.1) 2 1 5 50.0% 2.2% 0.0% 2.5
Patrick Laird WR 6'3, 205 Jr. NR 1 1 14 100.0% 1.1% 0.0% 14.0

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Frank Allen LG 6'4, 275 Sr. ** (5.1) 24 career starts
Mike McDermott RT 13 career starts
Robert Kava LT 9 career starts
Ryan Powls C 8 career starts
Brad Kelly LG 7 career starts
Joe Bailey RG 7 career starts
Matt Villanti RG 6'3, 278 Sr. ** (5.2) 6 career starts
Will Wilson C 6'2, 285 Sr. ** (4.9) 4 career starts
Michael Kime RT 6'2, 246 Jr. ** (5.2) 2 career starts
Jordan Pleasants LG 1 career start
Ben Jebb LT 6'5, 246 Sr. ** (5.1)
Steve Shumaker RG 6'0, 280 So. NR
Derek Bisgard RT 6'1, 253 Sr. ** (5.0)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 43 105 110 93
RUSHING 100 92 103 72
PASSING 5 106 106 111
Standard Downs 74 101 61
Passing Downs 119 114 120
Redzone 111 112 109
Q1 Rk 113 1st Down Rk 67
Q2 Rk 64 2nd Down Rk 117
Q3 Rk 103 3rd Down Rk 96
Q4 Rk 88
Adj. Line Yards Rk 98
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 92

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
A.J. Mackey NT 6'0, 260 Sr. NR 12 27.5 4.6% 6.5
Zach Watts QUICK 5'11, 207 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 21.0 3.5% 6.5 3 1
Broghan Carnes NT 9 9.0 1.5% 2
Clayton Keller DT 6'1, 226 Jr. NR 8 8.0 1.3% 3 1 2
Colin Linkul QUICK 6'0, 200 So. NR 8 5.0 0.8% 3 3
Bill Prosko DT 12 5.0 0.8% 0.5
Jarett Mackey QUICK 6'1, 235 Sr. NR 3 1.5 0.3%
Richard Glover DT 6'0, 247 So. NR 3 1.0 0.2%
Robert Kough DT 6'3, 239 Jr. NR
Shane Finnane DT 5'10, 238 Jr. NR
Joe Drummond DT 6'3, 228 So. NR

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Geoffery Bacon MLB 6'0, 220 So. ** (5.2) 12 45.0 7.5% 2.5 1 1 1
Andrew Rodriguez WHIP 12 41.5 7.0% 1.5 1 3 2
Nate Combs BAN 6'1, 225 Sr. ** (4.9) 12 28.0 4.7% 6 3 3 2
Hayden Pierce SAM 6'3, 180 So. ** (5.2) 10 26.5 4.4% 3 1
Holt Zalneraitis WHIP 6'2, 225 Jr. NR 12 20.5 3.4% 1.5 1 1
Jacob Drozd BAN 6'3, 225 So. NR 12 14.5 2.4% 3 2 1
Corey Watts BAN 6'11, 211 Jr. NR 11 12.0 2.0% 1 1
Michael Cermak WHIP 6'0, 220 So. ** (5.1) 6 3.5 0.6%
Lyle Beloney SAM 5'11, 195 Jr. ** (5.1) 12 2.5 0.4%
Kyle Maxwell WHIP 6'5, 231 Jr. NR
Zachary Williams MLB 5'11, 202 Jr. NR

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Steve Erzinger ROV 11 73.5 12.3% 7.5 3 1 1
Thomas Holloway ROV 5'11, 190 Jr. NR 12 60.5 10.1% 1 2 1
Tyler Dickson CB 5'11, 195 Jr. NR 12 48.5 8.1% 1 1 2
Josh Jackson CB 6'0, 185 Sr. NR 12 34.0 5.7% 1 1 4
Kyler Martin FS 6'2, 200 Sr. NR 11 25.5 4.3% 3.5 2 1 1 1
Lamar Johnson-Harris CB 5'9, 175 So. NR 11 16.5 2.8% 1 1
Waverly Washington CB 5'10, 194 Sr. NR 12 10.5 1.8%
Reggie Nesbit DB 6'2, 190 Jr. ** 7 10.5 1.8%
Justin Trimble ROV 5'11, 200 Jr. ** (5.0) 6 8.5 1.4% 2
Ty Shrader FS 5'8, 176 Sr. NR 12 6.5 1.1% 1
Brian Cobbs CB 5'11, 185 Sr. NR 10 4.5 0.8%
Marques Avery CB 6'1, 186 So. NR




Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Chris Boldt 6'0, 181 Sr. 31 39.8 2 3 10 41.9%
Kolin Walk 4 41.0 0 0 3 75.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Eric Osteen 6'1, 187 Sr. 57 63.1 10 17.5%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Alex Carlton 33-38 3-5 60.0% 0-1 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Scott Williams KR 5'8, 170 Jr. 30 20.6 0
Marcus Jackson KR 5'11, 180 So. 8 16.8 0
Raymond Maples KR 6'1, 200 Jr. 7 16.6 0
Josh Jackson PR 6'0, 185 Sr. 15 3.7 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 118
Net Punting 95
Net Kickoffs 38
Touchback Pct 42
Field Goal Pct 112
Kick Returns Avg 113
Punt Returns Avg 113

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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