2012 Arkansas State Red Wolves Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 58
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Illinois 15-33 L 28.7 - 31.8 L
10-Sep Memphis 47-3 W 32.6 - 21.4 W
17-Sep at Virginia Tech 7-26 L 22.1 - 29.6 L
24-Sep Central Arkansas 53-24 W 29.0 - 31.0 L
1-Oct at Western Kentucky 26-22 W 28.8 - 28.1 W
8-Oct at UL-Monroe 24-19 W 26.3 - 21.7 W
18-Oct Florida International 34-16 W 34.0 - 25.4 W
29-Oct North Texas 37-14 W 31.7 - 27.1 W
5-Nov at Florida Atlantic 39-21 W 27.1 - 32.2 L
12-Nov UL-Lafayette 30-21 W 27.8 - 23.4 W
19-Nov at Middle Tennessee 45-19 W 26.7 - 20.5 W
3-Dec Troy 45-14 W 28.9 - 24.5 W
8-Jan vs Northern Illinois 20-38 L 22.2 - 23.0 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 32.5 31 20.8 25
Adj. Points Per Game 28.2 52 26.1 39

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep at Oregon 5
8-Sep Memphis 117
15-Sep at Nebraska 24
22-Sep Alcorn State NR
29-Sep Western Kentucky 88
4-Oct at Florida International 56
13-Oct South Alabama 120
23-Oct at UL-Lafayette 99
3-Nov at North Texas 106
8-Nov UL-Monroe 90
17-Nov at Troy 100
1-Dec Middle Tennessee 113
Five-Year F/+ Rk 86
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 81
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +2 / +5.5
TO Luck/Game -1.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 9 (6, 3)
Yds/Pt Margin** -2.2

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 23 67 44 83
RUSHING 64 64 55 73
PASSING 16 71 37 86
Standard Downs 62 35 80
Passing Downs 77 48 88
Redzone 76 59 88
Q1 Rk 60 1st Down Rk 62
Q2 Rk 69 2nd Down Rk 59
Q3 Rk 77 3rd Down Rk 92
Q4 Rk 60
Adj. Line Yards Rk 31
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 61

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Ryan Aplin 6'1, 205 Sr. ** (4.9) 304 476 3,588 63.9% 19 16 27 5.4% 6.7
Andre Smith 6'1, 215 Sr. ** (5.2) 20 22 204 90.9% 1 0 0 0.0% 9.3

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Ryan Aplin QB 6'1, 205 Sr. ** (4.9) 134 783 5.8 2.2 10 +16.4
Derek Lawson RB 123 484 3.9 0.9 3 -10.3
Frankie Jackson RB 5'9, 185 So. *** (5.5) 88 355 4.0 1.2 6 +2.4
Jermaine Robertson RB 53 212 4.0 1.3 3 -1.0
Andre Smith QB 6'1, 215 Sr. ** (5.2) 28 93 3.3 1.2 1 -3.7
Sirgregory Thornton RB 5'11, 190 Jr. ** (5.4) 19 120 6.3 3.4 0 -1.1
Sherodrick Smith RB 5'10, 180 So. NR 16 56 3.5 0.9 1 -3.0

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Dwayne Frampton WR-H 119 94 1,156 79.0% 25.4% 63.9% 10.9
Joshua Jarboe WR-X 6'3, 215 Sr. **** (6.0) 84 54 730 64.3% 17.9% 58.3% 7.9
Taylor Stockemer WR-Y 6'4, 210 Sr. *** (5.5) 78 48 756 61.5% 16.7% 69.2% 7.8
Earl Lucas WR-Y 5'9, 157 So. ** (5.4) 31 20 225 64.5% 6.6% 61.3% 6.3
Allen Muse WR-Z 6'4, 215 Sr. ** (5.1) 23 16 154 69.6% 4.9% 60.9% 6.7
Frankie Jackson RB 5'9, 185 So. *** (5.5) 19 13 178 68.4% 4.1% 63.2% 10.1
Roderick Hall WR 17 13 76 76.5% 3.6% 35.3% 4.5
Kedric Murry TE 6'3, 265 Sr. ** (5.4) 16 9 38 56.3% 3.4% 68.8% 1.9
R.J. Fleming WR-H 5'10, 170 Jr. ** (5.2) 13 13 76 100.0% 2.8% 69.2% 8.0
Anthony Kincy TE 6'0, 232 Sr. ** (5.3) 13 9 91 69.2% 2.8% 53.8% 6.8
Braelon Roberts WR 6'5, 170 Fr. *** (5.6)






Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Tom Castilaw C 28 career starts, 2011 1st All-Sun Belt
Delano Moore LT 17 career starts, 2011 2nd All-Sun Belt
Alex Kautai LG 13 career starts
Zack McKnight RT 6'4, 300 Sr. NR 13 career starts
Cliff Mitchell RG 6'5, 305 Jr. ** (4.9) 11 career starts
Eric Allen C 6'1, 300 Sr. ** (4.9) 7 career starts
Jake Campbell RG 6'6, 320 Jr. ** (4.9) 2 career starts
Chris Tolbert LT 6'5, 275 Jr. ** (4.9)
Alan Wright LG 6'4, 295 So. ** (5.4)
Kevin Galindo RT 6'5, 285 Sr. ** (5.4)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 24 55 37 64
RUSHING 13 48 55 43
PASSING 69 51 20 72
Standard Downs 43 34 51
Passing Downs 63 58 66
Redzone 28 25 30
Q1 Rk 72 1st Down Rk 35
Q2 Rk 72 2nd Down Rk 86
Q3 Rk 74 3rd Down Rk 36
Q4 Rk 8
Adj. Line Yards Rk 43
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 14

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brandon Joiner DE 13 40.5 5.5% 19 13 2 1 1
Justin Robertson DE 13 25.0 3.4% 8 2.5 1 1
Ryan Carrethers DT 6'2, 310 Jr. ** (5.3) 13 16.0 2.2% 3 1.5
Dorvus Woods DT 13 14.5 2.0% 5.5 3.5 2 2
Tim Starson DE 6'5, 255 Sr. ** (4.9) 13 13.0 1.8% 2 1 1
Jeremy Gibson DE 12 11.5 1.6% 3
Greg McCall DT 12 10.5 1.4% 1
Alfonzo Simmons DL 12 6.5 0.9% 1.5 1
Amos Draper DT 6'3, 270 Jr. *** (5.5) 9 6.5 0.9% 3.5
Ronnell Wright DL 6'3, 285 Sr. *** (5.5) 8 5.0 0.7% 2.5 1
Ishmail Hayes DE 6'6, 245 Jr. *** (5.7)





Lawrence Cayou DE 6'3, 265 Jr. *** (5.5)





Dexter Blackmon DT 6'3, 290 Jr. ** (5.4)





John Gandy DE 6'1, 250 Jr. ** (5.3)





Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Demario Davis WLB 13 50.5 6.9% 10 3 1 4 1
Nathan Herrold WLB 6'3, 235 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 49.0 6.7% 3.5 1.5 1 1 1
Qushaun Lee MLB 5'11, 225 So. ** (5.4) 13 37.5 5.1% 4.5 0.5 2 2
Najel Byrd SLB 13 36.5 5.0% 7.5 2.5 2
Nick Nelms MLB 5'11, 225 Sr. ** (4.9) 13 29.0 3.9% 1 2
Elroy Brown LB 13 12.5 1.7% 2 2
LeAngelo Albright SLB 5'11, 205 Jr. ** (4.9) 13 9.5 1.3% 0.5 1
Eddie Porter LB 6'3, 245 Jr. *** (5.7)





Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kelcie McCray SS 13 52.0 7.1% 1.5 4 4
Don Jones DB 6'1, 208 Sr. ** (5.2) 13 42.0 5.7% 6.5 1 1 3
Darron Edwards CB 13 39.0 5.3% 1 0.5 3 4 3
Darryl Feemster CB 13 38.5 5.2% 5 7 1
Sterling Young FS 6'2, 182 So. ** (5.2) 12 35.5 4.8% 3.5 1 1 2 2
A.J. Hills FS 7 30.5 4.1% 1 2 2
Chaz Scales CB 5'9, 170 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 24.0 3.3% 3 0.5 1 11
Jaquan Kilcrease FS 12 21.0 2.9% 0.5 2
Tausean Holmes DB 5'10, 190 Sr. ** (5.1) 7 19.0 2.6% 3 5 2
Andrew Tryon DB 5'10, 185 So. ** (5.2) 13 13.0 1.8%
Cole Lorigan DB 5'10, 170 Sr. NR 13 7.0 1.0% 1 1

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ryan Wilbourn 5'10, 157 Sr. 26 38.1 1 4 7 42.3%
Neely Sullivent 22 39.3 0 10 9 86.4%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Bobby Zalud 5'8, 160 Jr. 87 57.1 2 2.3%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Brian Davis 5'10, 160 Jr. 44-47 17-21 81.0% 1-2 50.0%
Bobby Zalud 5'8, 160 Jr. 0-0 0-0 N/A 6-11 54.5%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Rod Hall KR 14 20.9 0
Andrew Tryon KR 5'10, 185 So. 10 30.8 0
Julian Jones KR 6'0, 190 Jr. 4 18.0 0
Dwayne Frampton PR 24 6.6 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 38
Net Punting 61
Net Kickoffs 90
Touchback Pct 51
Field Goal Pct 55
Kick Returns Avg 78
Punt Returns Avg 59

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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