2012 Arizona Wildcats Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 79
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Northern Arizona 41-10 W 32.6 - 26.9 W
8-Sep at Oklahoma State 14-37 L 27.8 - 29.1 L
17-Sep Stanford 10-37 L 26.8 - 28.3 L
24-Sep Oregon 31-56 L 29.4 - 31.1 L
1-Oct at USC 41-48 L 35.5 - 31.4 W
8-Oct at Oregon State 27-37 L 28.2 - 30.2 L
20-Oct UCLA 48-12 W 31.0 - 25.4 W
29-Oct at Washington 31-42 L 25.4 - 29.9 L
5-Nov Utah 21-34 L 33.7 - 31.2 W
12-Nov at Colorado 29-48 L 22.3 - 34.1 L
19-Nov at Arizona State 31-27 W 28.4 - 27.1 W
26-Nov UL-Lafayette 45-37 W 30.4 - 31.3 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 30.8 38 35.4 107
Adj. Points Per Game 29.3 36 29.7 94

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Toledo 71
8-Sep Oklahoma State 4
15-Sep S.C. State NR
22-Sep at Oregon 5
29-Sep Oregon State 74
6-Oct at Stanford 9
20-Oct Washington 59
27-Oct USC 6
3-Nov at UCLA 58
10-Nov Colorado 101
17-Nov at Utah 33
23-Nov Arizona State 60
Five-Year F/+ Rk 41
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 52
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -5 / +0.8
TO Luck/Game -2.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (6, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin** +2.1

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 16 43 32 50
RUSHING 114 92 81 97
PASSING 3 28 27 34
Standard Downs 44 34 48
Passing Downs 29 18 34
Redzone 56 97 34
Q1 Rk 49 1st Down Rk 73
Q2 Rk 26 2nd Down Rk 10
Q3 Rk 51 3rd Down Rk 61
Q4 Rk 43
Adj. Line Yards Rk 119
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 30

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Nick Foles 387 560 4,334 69.1% 28 14 23 3.9% 7.1
Matt Scott (2010^) 6'3, 197 Sr. **** (5.8) 66 93 776 71.0% 4 2 8 7.9% 7.2
Bryson Beirne


11 17 115 64.7% 1 1 0 0.0% 6.8
B.J. Denker 6'3, 195 Jr. NR








Javelle Allen 6'1, 207 Fr. *** (5.5)








Josh Kern 6'5, 190 Fr. *** (5.5)








^ Scott redshirted in 2011.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Keola Antolin RB 126 568 4.5 1.8 5 -3.8
Ka'Deem Carey RB 5'10, 190 So. **** (5.8) 91 425 4.7 1.7 6 +3.0
Daniel Jenkins RB 5'9, 190 Jr. **** (5.8) 31 176 5.7 2.7 2 +1.7
Taimi Tutogi HB 6'1, 250 Sr. *** (5.6) 25 73 2.9 0.6 4 +3.3
Nick Foles QB 20 81 4.1 0.7 0 -4.3
Kylan Butler RB 5'7, 186 Jr. *** (5.6) 6 29 4.8 0.9 0 -1.3
Greg Nwoko RB 6'1, 237 Sr. ** (5.4)



Anthony Lopez RB 5'11, 195 Fr. *** (5.7)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Juron Criner WR 106 75 956 70.8% 19.2% 67.9% 8.7
David Douglas WR 94 65 677 69.1% 17.0% 57.4% 7.0
Gino Crump WR 82 65 610 79.3% 14.8% 69.5% 8.3
Dan Buckner WR 6'4, 220 Sr. **** (5.9) 63 42 606 66.7% 11.4% 63.5% 9.3
David Roberts WR 58 39 413 67.2% 10.5% 72.4% 6.6
Austin Hill WR 6'3, 205 So. *** (5.7) 35 21 311 60.0% 6.3% 62.9% 7.4
Keola Antolin RB 32 25 186 78.1% 5.8% 62.5% 6.5
Richard Morrison WR 6'0, 180 Jr. *** (5.5) 31 22 196 71.0% 5.6% 35.5% 6.5
Ka'Deem Carey RB 5'10, 190 So. **** (5.8) 19 15 203 78.9% 3.4% 52.6% 12.1
Terrence Miller TE 6'4, 225 Jr. *** (5.6) 12 11 136 91.7% 2.2% 75.0% 13.8
Garic Wharton WR 5'11, 163 So. *** (5.7)






Tyler Slavin WR 6'2, 200 So. *** (5.6)






Johnny Jackson WR 5'10, 180 RSFr. NR






Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Kyle Quinn C 6'3, 300 Sr. *** (5.6) 13 career starts
Mickey Baucus LT 6'8, 303 So. *** (5.5) 12 career starts
Fabbians Ebbele RT 6'8, 305 So. *** (5.6) 12 career starts
Trace Biskin RG 6'5, 295 Sr. *** (5.6) 10 career starts
Chris Putton LG 6'4, 298 Jr. *** (5.6) 9 career starts
Shane Zink LG 6'6, 314 Sr. ** (5.4) 3 career starts
Carter Lees LG 6'5, 320 So. *** (5.5) 2 career starts
Trent Spurgeon LT 6'7, 303 So. **** (5.8)
Addison Bachman C 6'5, 290 Sr. ** (5.4)
Eric Bender-Ramsey RG 6'6, 325 Jr. NR
Lene Maiava RT 6'5, 277 RSFr. ** (5.2)
Zach Hemmila OL 6'3, 275 Fr. **** (5.8)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 110 64 55 76
RUSHING 67 67 45 91
PASSING 119 66 63 64
Standard Downs 60 44 70
Passing Downs 91 93 90
Redzone 71 63 76
Q1 Rk 85 1st Down Rk 43
Q2 Rk 66 2nd Down Rk 90
Q3 Rk 29 3rd Down Rk 65
Q4 Rk 113
Adj. Line Yards Rk 73
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 117

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
C.J. Parish DE 10 26.0 4.0% 5 3 1
Kirifi Taula DT 6'3, 280 So. *** (5.7) 11 17.0 2.6% 4 1
Sione Tuihalamaka DT 6'2, 280 Jr. *** (5.7) 11 16.0 2.5% 1.5
Justin Washington DT 6'2, 280 Jr. ** (5.3) 9 15.0 2.3% 2
Mohammed Usman DE 11 14.0 2.1% 1 1 1
Dan Pettinato DE 6'4, 260 So. *** (5.5) 12 12.0 1.8% 1.5 1
Lamar De Rego DE 6'3, 265 Sr. *** (5.5) 8 8.0 1.2% 1
Aiulua Fanene DT 10 7.5 1.1% 1.5 1
Jowyn Ward DT 6'2, 294 Sr. ** (5.3) 10 7.5 1.1% 1.5 1
Chris Merrill DT 6'2, 275 Sr. *** (5.5) 7 6.5 1.0% 0.5
Sani Fuimaono DT 12 6.0 0.9% 1
Willie Mobley (2010^) DT 6'2, 270 Sr. **** (5.8) 10 4.5 0.6% 1.5 1
Kyle Kelley DE 6'3, 230 Fr. **** (5.8)
Dwight Melvin DE 6'1, 245 Fr. *** (5.7)

^ Mobley missed 2011 with injury.

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brian Wagner^ LB 6'0, 230 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 101.5 14.6% 6 0.5 1 1
Derek Earls LB 12 64.5 9.9% 7 2 1
Paul Vassallo LB 12 57.0 8.7% 5 1 2 1
Jake Fischer (2010^^) LB 5'11, 215 Jr. *** (5.6) 13 49.0 6.8% 7.5 2 2 1
Rob Hankins LB 6'1, 220 So. *** (5.7) 10 9.0 1.4% 0.5
Hank Hobson LB 6'2, 213 So. *** (5.5) 12 7.0 1.1%
Bilal Muhammed LB 6 5.0 0.8% 3 1
David Lopez LB 8 1.5 0.2%
Tyler Ermisch LB 6'3, 225 Jr. NR 11 1.0 0.2%
C.J. Dozier LB 6'2, 205 Fr. *** (5.7)

^ Wagner is an Akron transfer and is eligible to play immediately.
^^ Fischer missed 2011 with injury.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Marquis Flowers S 6'3, 220 Jr. **** (5.9) 11 60.5 9.3% 3 1 1 3 1
Robert Golden S 12 59.5 9.1% 2 1 5 1
Trevin Wade CB 12 47.0 7.2% 1 2 13 1
Shaquille Richardson CB 6'2, 180 Jr. *** (5.7) 10 43.0 6.6% 2 4 5 1
Tra'Mayne Bondurant S 5'10, 185 So. ** (5.4) 12 39.0 6.0% 3.5 1 1 6 1
Jourdon Grandon NB 6'0, 180 So. *** (5.6) 11 31.5 4.8% 1 1 4 2
Mark Watley S 6'1, 187 Sr. ** (5.2) 11 25.5 3.9% 1 1 3
Cortez Johnson CB 8 13.0 2.0% 0.5 1
Lyle Brown CB 12 12.0 1.8% 1
Jared Tevis S 5'11, 200 So. NR 12 11.5 1.8%
Jonathan McKnight (2010^) CB 5'11, 175 So. *** (5.6) 13 12.0 1.7% 2
Adam Hall^^ S 6'4, 213 Jr. **** (5.9) 1 9.5 1.5% 2 1
Derrick Rainey CB 6'1, 183 Jr. ** (5.4) 7 2.0 0.3%

^ McKnight missed 2011 with injury.
^^ Hall missed all but one game in 2011 with injury and tore his ACL this spring.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Kyle Dugandzic 5'11, 195 Sr. 40 46.0 10 6 12 45.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
John Bonano 6'0, 195 Sr. 67 66.5 22 32.8%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
John Bonano 6'0, 195 Sr. 24-24 5-7 71.4% 3-5 60.0%
Jaime Salazar 6'0, 207 Sr. 7-8 1-1 100.0% 0-3 0.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Ka'Deem Carey KR 5'10, 203 So. 26 21.1 0
Garic Wharton KR 5'11, 163 So. 14 23.0 0
Taimi Tutogi KR 6'1, 260 Sr. 6 24.3 0
Richard Morrison PR 5'11, 183 So. 11 5.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 109
Net Punting 107
Net Kickoffs 64
Touchback Pct 12
Field Goal Pct 109
Kick Returns Avg 73
Punt Returns Avg 104

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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