2012 Alabama Crimson Tide Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-1 | Adj. Record: 12-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 1
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep Kent State 48-7 W 38.5 - 9.1 W
10-Sep at Penn State 27-11 W 36.0 - 18.3 W
17-Sep North Texas 41-0 W 37.2 - 13.7 W
24-Sep Arkansas 38-14 W 32.8 - 18.0 W
1-Oct at Florida 38-10 W 35.7 - 17.0 W
8-Oct Vanderbilt 34-0 W 35.9 - 21.4 W
15-Oct at Ole Miss 52-7 W 36.9 - 23.4 W
22-Oct Tennessee 37-6 W 31.9 - 5.4 W
5-Nov LSU 6-9 L 32.5 - 12.9 W
12-Nov at Mississippi State 24-7 W 32.7 - 11.8 W
19-Nov Georgia Southern
45-21 W 31.5 - 33.2 L
26-Nov Auburn 42-14 W 28.1 - 15.5 W
9-Jan LSU 21-0 W 37.6 - 4.1 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 34.8 20 8.2 1
Adj. Points Per Game 34.4 4 15.7 1

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep vs Michigan 16
8-Sep Western Kentucky 94
15-Sep at Arkansas 15
22-Sep Florida Atlantic 115
29-Sep Ole Miss 59
13-Oct at Missouri 28
20-Oct at Tennessee 27
27-Oct Mississippi State 44
3-Nov at LSU 2
10-Nov Texas A&M 25
17-Nov Western Carolina NR
24-Nov Auburn 22
Five-Year F/+ Rk 1
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 1
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* +8 / +10.2
TO Luck/Game -0.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (7, 4)
Yds/Pt Margin** -10.0

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 31 2 3 2
RUSHING 16 3 6 3
PASSING 69 3 5 3
Standard Downs 1 1 1
Passing Downs 10 49 4
Redzone 32 29 33
Q1 Rk 3 1st Down Rk 1
Q2 Rk 28 2nd Down Rk 9
Q3 Rk 1 3rd Down Rk 2
Q4 Rk 1
Adj. Line Yards Rk 7
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 24

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
A.J. McCarron 6'4, 210 Jr. **** (5.9) 219 328 2,634 66.8% 16 5 11 3.2% 7.5
Phillip Sims


18 28 163 64.3% 0 2 4 12.5% 4.3
Phillip Ely 6'1, 198 RSFr. *** (5.7)

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Trent Richardson RB 303 1,775 5.9 2.6 21 +42.6
Eddie Lacy RB 6'0, 220 Jr. **** (5.9) 106 717 6.8 3.3 7 +18.3
Jalston Fowler RB 6'1, 242 Jr. **** (5.8) 56 385 6.9 3.3 4 +9.1
Blake Sims RB 6'0, 212 So. **** (5.8) 22 107 4.9 2.7 0 -1.3
A.J. McCarron QB 6'4, 210 Jr. **** (5.9) 19 70 3.7 0.8 2 +0.7
Dee Hart RB 5'9, 190 RSFr. ***** (6.1)
T.J. Yeldon RB 6'2, 216 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Kenyan Drake RB 6'1, 204 Fr. **** (5.8)

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Marquis Maze WR 87 56 627 64.4% 23.8% 57.5% 6.5
Brad Smelley TE 51 41 395 80.4% 14.0% 64.7% 8.5
Darius Hanks WR 47 31 386 66.0% 12.9% 63.8% 7.7
Trent Richardson RB 40 31 349 77.5% 11.0% 70.0% 9.2
Michael Williams TE 6'6, 269 Sr. **** (5.9) 28 18 201 64.3% 7.7% 85.7% 2.9
Kenny Bell WR 6'1, 180 Jr. **** (5.8) 24 18 281 75.0% 6.6% 58.3% 13.1
DeAndrew White WR 6'0, 185 So. **** (5.9) 23 14 145 60.9% 6.3% 65.2% 5.1
Kevin Norwood WR 6'2, 195 Jr. **** (5.9) 20 15 268 75.0% 5.5% 70.0% 13.2
Brandon Gibson WR 17 14 140 82.4% 4.7% 58.8% 9.4
Eddie Lacy RB 6'0, 220 Jr. **** (5.9) 12 11 131 91.7% 3.3% 58.3% 13.4
Christion Jones WR 5'11, 185 So. NR 5 3 49 60.0% 1.4% 80.0% 8.3
Harrison Jones TE 6'4, 244 So. *** (5.7) 1 1 11 100.0% 0.3% 100.0% 11.0
Brian Vogler TE 6'7, 258 So. **** (5.8) 1 1 6 100.0% 0.3% 100.0% 6.0
Marvin Shinn WR 6'3, 198 RSFr. **** (5.9)
Danny Woodson, Jr. WR 6'1, 195 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Eddie Williams WR 6'4, 204 Fr. ***** (6.1)
Amari Cooper WR 6'1, 198 Fr. **** (6.0)
Cyrus Jones WR 5'10, 192 Fr. **** (5.9)

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Barrett Jones C 6'5, 302 Sr. **** (6.0) 36 career starts, 2011 All-American, 2011 Outland Award
William Vlachos C 40 career starts, 2011 1st All-SEC
Chance Warmack LG 6'3, 320 Sr. *** (5.7) 26 career starts, 2011 2nd All-SEC
D.J. Fluker RT 6'6, 335 Jr. ***** (6.1) 22 career starts
Anthony Steen RG 6'3, 303 Jr. *** (5.7) 13 career starts
Alfred McCullough LG 8 career starts
Kellen Williams LT 6'3, 303 Jr. *** (5.7)
John Michael Boswell RG
Austin Shepherd RT 6'5, 312 So. *** (5.7)
Cyrus Kouandjio LT 6'6, 311 So. ***** (6.1)
Arie Kouandjio RG 6'5, 310 So. **** (5.9)
Chad Lindsay LG 6'2, 290 So. *** (5.7)
Isaac Luatua RG 6'2, 313 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Ryan Kelly C 6'5, 288 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Brandon Greene OL 6'5, 292 Fr. **** (5.8)
Alphonse Taylor LG 6'5, 340 Fr. *** (5.7)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 1 1 1 1
RUSHING 1 1 3 1
PASSING 1 1 1 1
Standard Downs 2 1 2
Passing Downs 1 1 1
Redzone 1 2 1
Q1 Rk 12 1st Down Rk 2
Q2 Rk 2 2nd Down Rk 1
Q3 Rk 1 3rd Down Rk 1
Q4 Rk 1
Adj. Line Yards Rk 3
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 20

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Damion Square DE 6'3, 286 Sr. *** (5.7) 13 22.5 3.7% 7 1 1
Jesse Williams NG 6'4, 320 Sr. **** (6.0) 13 17.0 2.8% 4 0.5 1
Quinton Dial DE 6'6, 304 Sr. **** (5.8) 12 17.0 2.8% 3 1
Nick Gentry NG 12 17.0 2.8% 6 4.5 1
Josh Chapman NG 12 16.5 2.7% 3.5 1 2
Ed Stinson DE 6'4, 282 Jr. **** (5.8) 13 14.5 2.4% 5 1 1 1 2
Brandon Ivory NG 6'4, 315 So. *** (5.6) 4 2.5 0.4%
Jeoffrey Pagan DE 6'4, 285 So. **** (6.0) 6 2.0 0.3%
D.J. Pettway DE 6'2, 285 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Korren Kirven DT 6'5, 292 Fr. **** (5.8)
Dalvin Tomlinson DE 6'2, 266 Fr. **** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Dont'a Hightower MIKE 13 62.5 10.2% 11 4 1 3 1
Courtney Upshaw JACK 13 43.5 7.1% 17 8.5 1 2
Nico Johnson WILL 6'3, 245 Sr. ***** (6.1) 13 36.0 5.9% 6.5 1 1 3 1 1
C.J. Mosley WILL 6'2, 232 Jr. **** (5.9) 11 27.0 4.4% 4.5 2 1 2
Jerrell Harris SAM 13 23.0 3.8% 3.5
Trey Depriest MIKE 6'2, 245 So. **** (5.8) 13 18.0 2.9% 1.5
Alex Watkins LB 13 13.0 2.1% 2 1 1
Adrian Hubbard SLB 6'6, 248 So. **** (5.8) 9 6.0 1.0% 1.5
Tana Patrick MLB 6'3, 236 Jr. **** (6.0) 10 4.5 0.7%
Xzavier Dickson JACK 6'3, 262 So. **** (5.9) 7 2.5 0.4% 1.5 0.5
Jonathan Atchison SLB 6'3, 236 Jr. *** (5.7)
Anthony Orr JACK 6'4, 258 So. *** (5.7)
Reggie Ragland LB 6'2, 247 Fr. **** (6.0)
Dillon Lee JACK 6'4, 240 Fr. **** (5.9)
Ryan Anderson LB 6'2, 252 Fr. **** (5.9)
Denzel Devall LB 6'2, 243 Fr. **** (5.8)
Tyler Hayes LB 6'2, 210 Fr. **** (5.8)

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Mark Barron FS 13 55.5 9.1% 5 1 2 5 1
DeQuan Menzie CB 13 34.0 5.6% 4 1.5 1 11 1
Robert Lester SS 6'2, 210 Sr. **** (5.8) 13 30.5 5.0% 1.5 2 3 1
Dre Kirkpatrick CB 13 27.0 4.4% 4 9 2
Vinnie Sunseri FS 6'0, 215 So. *** (5.6) 13 24.5 4.0% 1 1 1
Dee Milliner CB 6'1, 199 Jr. ***** (6.1) 13 20.5 3.3% 1 3 9
Will Lowery FS


11 17.0 2.8% 0.5 2
Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix FS 6'1, 209 So. ***** (6.1) 13 8.0 1.3% 2
Jarrick Williams SS 6'1, 212 Jr. **** (5.9) 7 4.5 0.7%
John Fulton CB 6'0, 187 Jr. **** (5.9) 12 3.5 0.6% 1
Nick Perry SS 6'1, 208 Jr. **** (5.8) 9 1.5 0.2%
Ranzell Watkins CB 5'9, 172 Jr. NR 2 0.5 0.1%
Deion Belue CB 5'11, 179 Jr. *** (5.6)
Bradley Sylve CB 5'11, 178 RSFr. **** (5.8)
Jabriel Washington CB 5'11, 183 RSFr. *** (5.7)
Landon Collins DB 6'0, 202 Fr. ***** (6.1)


Geno Smith DB 6'0, 182 Fr. **** (5.9)

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Cody Mandell 6'4, 202 Jr. 39 39.3 3 17 11 71.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Cade Foster 6'1, 216 Jr. 81 63.3 5 6.2%
Jeremy Shelley 5'10, 165 Sr. 9 55.1 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Jeremy Shelley 5'10, 165 Sr. 52-54 19-21 90.5% 2-6 33.3%
Cade Foster 6'1, 218 Jr. 2-9 22.2%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Marquis Maze KR 12 28.5 0
Trent Richardson KR 3 22.0 0
Marquis Maze PR 33 13.2 1
Christion Jones PR 5'11, 185 So. 3 11.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 72
Net Punting 60
Net Kickoffs 88
Touchback Pct 103
Field Goal Pct 85
Kick Returns Avg 19
Punt Returns Avg 14

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Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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