2012 Akron Zips Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 119
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep at Ohio State 0-42 L 14.8 - 33.5 L
10-Sep Temple 3-41 L 19.5 - 30.5 L
17-Sep at Cincinnati 14-59 L 24.5 - 32.5 L
24-Sep VMI 36-13 W 25.4 - 33.3 L
1-Oct at Eastern Michigan 23-31 L 28.3 - 29.0 L
8-Oct Florida International 17-27 L 27.0 - 31.5 L
22-Oct Ohio 20-37 L 24.1 - 30.9 L
29-Oct Central Michigan 22-23 L 25.2 - 30.4 L
3-Nov at Miami (Ohio) 3-35 L 16.9 - 31.5 L
12-Nov Kent State 3-35 L 20.3 - 35.7 L
19-Nov at Buffalo 10-51 L 19.4 - 33.6 L
25-Nov at Western Michigan 19-72 L 14.9 - 33.7 L
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 14.2 118 38.5 116
Adj. Points Per Game 21.7 118 32.2 119

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
30-Aug Central Florida 49
8-Sep at Florida International 56
15-Sep Morgan State NR
22-Sep at Tennessee 23
29-Sep Miami (Ohio) 77
6-Oct Bowling Green 64
13-Oct at Ohio 61
20-Oct Northern Illinois 57
27-Oct at Central Michigan 84
3-Nov at Kent State 92
10-Nov Massachusetts 116
20-Nov at Toledo 71
Five-Year F/+ Rk 115
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 112
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -9 / -6.0
TO Luck/Game -1.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 14 (8, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin** +8.5

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 115 113 104 118
RUSHING 100 98 58 113
PASSING 103 117 113 118
Standard Downs 114 116 114
Passing Downs 117 111 119
Redzone 113 119 111
Q1 Rk 116 1st Down Rk 115
Q2 Rk 120 2nd Down Rk 117
Q3 Rk 112 3rd Down Rk 119
Q4 Rk 88
Adj. Line Yards Rk 80
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 104

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Clayton Moore 6'1, 209 Jr. ** (5.2) 147 309 1,655 47.6% 9 9 33 9.6% 4.3
Patrick Nicely


22 61 256 36.1% 2 2 4 6.2% 3.5
Dalton Williams 6'4, 230 Sr. NR








Kyle Pohl 6'3, 213 RSFr. *** (5.5)








Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Jawon Chisholm RB 6'0, 210 So. ** (5.1) 218 989 4.5 1.7 5 -15.9
Clayton Moore QB 6'1, 209 Jr. ** (5.2) 58 315 5.4 1.5 1 -6.3
Broderick Alexander RB 6'1, 221 Jr. ** (5.2) 48 196 4.1 1.1 0 -7.3
Karl Bostick RB


27 82 3.0 0.9 1 -5.0
Imani Davis RB 5'10, 165 Fr. ** (5.4)





Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Keith Sconiers WR 6'1, 185 Jr. *** (5.6) 79 47 639 59.5% 23.5% 60.8% 6.8
Marquelo Suel WR 6'3, 195 Sr. ** (5.4) 64 34 417 53.1% 19.0% 56.3% 4.6
Antoine Russell WR


52 22 276 42.3% 15.5% 59.6% 1.9
A.J. Price WR 6'4, 195 Sr. ** (5.2) 37 12 196 32.4% 11.0% 51.4% -1.5
Jawon Chisholm RB 6'0, 210 So. ** (5.1) 22 12 84 54.5% 6.5% 40.9% 2.2
Rhyne Ladrach TE 6'5, 247 Sr. ** (5.0) 19 11 62 57.9% 5.7% 47.4% 2.4
Jerrod Dillard WR 6'4, 199 Jr. ** (5.2) 16 7 76 43.8% 4.8% 62.5% 2.3
Will Fleming TE 6'4, 240 Jr. *** (5.5) 10 4 51 40.0% 3.0% 40.0% 0.6
Anthony Ritossa TE 6'4, 240 So. ** (5.3) 7 5 42 71.4% 2.1% 42.9% 9.0
Dylan Potts WR 5'11, 191 Jr. ** (5.2) 7 2 22 28.6% 2.1% 28.6% 0.5

Offensive Line

2011 Two-Deep Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Jake Anderson RT 36 career starts
Zac Kasparek RG 21 career starts
Mitch Straight LT 6'5, 300 Sr. ** (5.4) 16 career starts
Patrick McCloskey LT 12 career starts
Adam Bice C 6'4, 287 Sr. ** (5.1) 10 career starts
Paul Simkovich LG 7 career starts
Vinnie Rizzo RG 6'3, 285 Sr. ** (5.3) 4 career starts
Travis Switzer RG 6'3, 277 So. ** (5.3) 3 career starts
Jarrod Pughsley LT 6'4, 290 Jr. NR
Micah Lio RT 6'7, 295 So. ** (5.2)
Michael Casimos OL 6'4, 278 Fr. ** (5.4)

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 94 120 119 119
RUSHING 108 119 119 118
PASSING 39 120 120 119
Standard Downs 120 119 120
Passing Downs 108 112 104
Redzone 117 119 106
Q1 Rk 118 1st Down Rk 120
Q2 Rk 120 2nd Down Rk 120
Q3 Rk 116 3rd Down Rk 91
Q4 Rk 106
Adj. Line Yards Rk 119
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 104

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
James Harvey DT 12 29.5 4.3% 3 1 1 2
Dan Marcoux DT 9 27.0 3.9% 2 1 2
Oren Wilson DT 12 25.5 3.7% 4.5 3.5 1
John Griggs DE 6'5, 273 Sr. ** (5.2) 12 21.0 3.0% 5 1 4 1 2
Nico Caponi DE 6'2, 266 Jr. ** (5.3) 10 18.0 2.6% 2.5 1.5 1 3
Isaiah Williams DE 6'3, 271 So. ** (5.2) 11 8.5 1.2% 1
Hasan Hazime DE 3 6.5 0.9% 0.5
Phil Tonga DT 10 2.5 0.4% 3
Cody Grice DE 6'0, 256 RSFr. ** (5.4)
James Price DT 6'2, 308 RSFr. ** (5.2)
Albert Presley DE 6'2, 220 RSFr. NR
Alfonso Horner DE 6'3, 200 Fr. ** (5.3)

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brian Wagner MLB


11 101.5 14.6% 6 0.5 1 1
Troy Gilmer WLB 6'1, 223 Sr. ** (5.0) 9 52.0 7.5% 3.5 1 1
Matt Little SLB 9 38.5 5.5% 1.5
Jamar Williams WLB 5'11, 215 So. ** (5.3) 8 27.0 3.9% 2 1 1 1
Justin March SLB 6'0, 215 So. *** (5.5) 12 23.5 3.4% 1.5 0.5 1
Gary Ransom MLB 6'0, 212 So. NR 8 10.5 1.5%
ShelDon Miller LB 6'0, 210 Jr. ** (5.2) 4 10.0 1.4% 1.5
Blake Fraley LB 5'10, 219 Jr. ** (5.0) 9 9.5 1.4%

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Devonte Morgan FS 5'11, 179 So. ** (5.2) 12 56.5 8.1% 1
Manley Waller CB 12 37.5 5.4% 0.5 8
Anthony Holmes CB 6'0, 187 Jr. *** (5.5) 10 28.5 4.1% 1.5 4 1
L.T. Smith FS 6'0, 199 So. ** (5.3) 12 27.0 3.9% 1.5 1 1 1
Johnny Robinson SS 5'10, 180 So. ** (5.2) 10 27.0 3.9% 1 1
Josh Richmond SS 5'11, 190 Sr. *** (5.5) 10 21.5 3.1% 0.5 1
Antoine Russell CB


12 18.5 2.7% 0.5
Emmanuel Lartey CB 5'11, 181 Sr. *** (5.5) 11 16.0 2.3% 2.5 1 1 2
Seth Cunningham CB 6'0, 184 Jr. ** (5.4) 8 10.5 1.5%
Bre' Ford S 5'11, 215 So. ** (5.3) 4 9.5 1.4% 0.5 1

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Zack Campbell 77 38.1 18 17 7 31.2%
A.J. Fox 5'10, 211 So. 6 39.7 1 1 1 33.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
A.J. Fox 5'10, 211 So. 33 53 2 6.1%
Kevin Ivasku 9 52.8 0 0.0%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
A.J. Fox 5'10, 211 So. 9-9 4-4 100.0% 4-4 100.0%
T.J. Marchese 6-8 2-3 66.7% 1-3 33.3%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Tyler Williams KR 5'7, 155 So. 39 17.8 0
Antoine Russell KR

16 19.7 0
Dylan Potts KR 5'11, 191 Jr. 6 10.8 0
A.J. Price PR 6'4, 195 Sr. 10 3.5 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 97
Net Punting 87
Net Kickoffs 120
Touchback Pct 105
Field Goal Pct 29
Kick Returns Avg 119
Punt Returns Avg 107

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

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