2012 Air Force Falcons Football: Statistical Profile

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2011 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 80
Date Opponent Score W-L Adj. Score Adj. W-L
3-Sep South Dakota 37-20 W 27.6 - 32.8 L
10-Sep TCU 19-35 L 32.2 - 28.9 W
24-Sep Tennessee State 63-24 W 34.3 - 35.0 L
1-Oct at Navy 35-34 W 29.7 - 27.0 W
8-Oct at Notre Dame 33-59 L 31.3 - 34.6 L
13-Oct San Diego State 27-41 L 27.5 - 31.0 L
22-Oct at Boise State 26-37 L 31.5 - 31.7 L
29-Oct at New Mexico 42-0 W 28.4 - 26.8 W
5-Nov Army 24-14 W 22.3 - 26.8 L
12-Nov Wyoming 17-25 L 21.2 - 28.9 L
19-Nov UNLV 45-17 W 34.3 - 31.1 W
26-Nov at Colorado State 45-21 W 36.4 - 32.6 W
28-Dec vs Toledo 41-42 L 28.1 - 27.4 W
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 34.9 19 28.4 72
Adj. Points Per Game 29.6 31 30.4 107

2012 Schedule & Projection Factors

2012 Schedule
Date Opponent Proj. Rk
1-Sep Idaho State NR
8-Sep at Michigan 12
15-Sep at UNLV 119
29-Sep Colorado State 102
6-Oct Navy 76
13-Oct at Wyoming 108
20-Oct New Mexico 124
26-Oct Nevada 63
3-Nov at Army 95
10-Nov at San Diego State 86
16-Nov Hawaii 93
24-Nov at Fresno State 81
Five-Year F/+ Rk 54
Two-Year Recruiting Rk 69
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* 0 / -2.9
TO Luck/Game 1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 5 (3, 2)
Yds/Pt Margin** -0.6

Offense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 22 55 34 62
RUSHING 3 36 30 37
PASSING 113 45 42 49
Standard Downs 34 27 39
Passing Downs 103 104 105
Redzone 91 51 101
Q1 Rk 45 1st Down Rk 29
Q2 Rk 53 2nd Down Rk 89
Q3 Rk 33 3rd Down Rk 84
Q4 Rk 70
Adj. Line Yards Rk 58
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 50

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2012 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Comp Att Yards Comp
Rate
TD INT Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Tim Jefferson, Jr. 111 183 1,637 60.7% 14 7 10 5.2% 8.2
Connor Dietz


9 15 128 60.0% 1 1 0 0.0% 8.5
Tucker Tipton 5'10, 188 Sr. NR 2 2 24 100.0% 0 0 0 0.0% 12.0

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Rushes Yards Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TD Adj.
POE
Asher Clark RB 163 1,110 6.8 3.4 7 +8.9
Tim Jefferson, Jr. QB 143 617 4.3 1.5 11 -0.7
Mike DeWitt RB 6'1, 220 Sr. NR 117 567 4.8 1.3 12 +4.7
Wes Cobb FB 5'9, 196 Sr. ** (5.4) 100 425 4.3 1.1 4 -8.5
Connor Dietz QB 38 252 6.6 2.6 2 +2.8
Jonathan Warzeka WR 28 244 8.7 4.8 0 +3.9
Cody Getz RB 5'7, 170 Sr. ** (5.2) 25 102 4.1 0.9 1 -1.3
Darius Jones RB 5'9, 160 Sr. NR 14 137 9.8 4.0 1 +3.5
Mikel Hunter WR 5'9, 170 Sr. NR 13 148 11.4 10.5 1 +6.4

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Adj. Yds/
Target
Zack Kauth WR 51 31 620 60.8% 27.4% 70.6% 10.7
Jonathan Warzeka WR 43 31 442 72.1% 23.1% 62.8% 10.6
Mikel Hunter WR 24 14 244 58.3% 12.9% 79.2% 6.8
Joshua Freeman TE 20 14 154 70.0% 10.8% 30.0% 7.1
Drew Coleman WR 5'9, 175 Sr. ** (5.1) 13 7 119 53.8% 7.0% 76.9% 5.6
Asher Clark RB 11 8 33 72.7% 5.9% 63.6% 2.7
Brandon Hirneise WR


7 7 41 100.0% 3.8% 42.9% 8.1
Ty MacArthur WR 5'9, 170 Jr. NR 5 4 101 80.0% 2.7% 100.0% 13.9
Dontae Strickland WR 4 2 33 50.0% 2.2% 75.0% 8.3
Daniel Pickett TE 3 2 21 66.7% 1.6% 33.3% 7.0

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals Career Starts/Honors/Notes
A.J. Wallerstein RG 27 career starts, 2011 1st All-MWC
Jason Kons LT 6'4, 255 Sr. NR 25 career starts
Michael Hester C 17 career starts
Kevin Whitt RT 13 career starts
Jordan Eason LG 6'3, 255 Sr. NR 12 career starts
Jeff Benson C 9 career starts
Jerry Henry LT 6'6, 260 Jr. NR 1 career start
Alex Huskisson RT 6'6, 235 Jr. NR 1 career start
Ross Lovett LG 6'4, 240 Jr. NR
Michael Husar, Jr. C 6'0, 250 Jr. NR
Drew Kerber RG 6'3, 265 Jr. NR

Defense

Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 65 100 114 87
RUSHING 109 78 100 52
PASSING 6 112 115 109
Standard Downs 98 112 78
Passing Downs 116 118 112
Redzone 107 113 98
Q1 Rk 114 1st Down Rk 96
Q2 Rk 93 2nd Down Rk 105
Q3 Rk 85 3rd Down Rk 112
Q4 Rk 101
Adj. Line Yards Rk 83
Adj. Sack Rate Rk 76

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Harry Kehs DE 11 22.0 2.9% 2.5
Ryan Gardner DT 9 15.0 2.0% 2.5 1
Nick Fitzgerald DE 6'4, 255 So. NR 13 13.0 1.7% 0.5
Ross Fleming DL 9 12.0 1.6%
Nick DeJulio DT 6'2, 230 Sr. ** (5.1) 12 10.0 1.3% 0.5 0.5
Zach Payne DL 4 7.5 1.0% 2 2
Joseph Champaign DE 6'1, 230 So. *** (5.5) 9 7.0 0.9% 1





Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Brady Amack ILB 13 98.5 13.1% 5 1 2 4 1
Alex Means OLB 6'5, 230 Sr. NR 13 57.0 7.6% 9.5 6 1 2 3 2
Jordan Waiwaiole ILB 12 45.5 6.0% 1.5 0.5 1
Jamil Cooks OLB


13 39.5 5.2% 8 2.5 1 1 1
Patrick Hennessey OLB 12 38.0 5.0% 7 2.5 1 1
Austin Niklas ILB 6'2, 230 Sr. NR 13 25.0 3.3% 4 1 1 1 1 2
Josh Kusan ILB 6'0, 210 Sr. NR 12 15.5 2.1%
Stephan Atrice OLB 6'1, 200 Sr. NR 13 15.0 2.0% 1
James Chambers LB 5'11, 220 Sr. ** (5.4) 13 10.5 1.4% 1 1

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Rivals GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jon Davis S 13 69.0 9.1% 0.5 4 3 1 1
Anthony Wooding, Jr. S


13 41.0 5.4% 1.5 1
Anthony Wright, Jr. CB 13 40.5 5.4% 1 2 4 1
Josh Hall CB 13 32.5 4.3% 2 1 4 1 1
Brian Lindsay S 6'1, 220 Sr. ** (5.0) 11 31.0 4.1% 2 1
Chris Miller CB 5'8, 185 Jr. NR 9 18.5 2.5% 3
Steffon Batts CB 6'0, 180 Jr. NR 13 11.0 1.5% 1
Kevin Jablonsky DB 13 9.0 1.2% 1 1



Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
David Baska 6'0, 182 Jr. 32 40.8 2 7 6 40.6%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB TB%
Erik Soderberg 52 56.9 6 11.5%
Briceton Cannada 5'9, 170 Jr. 21 67 5 23.8%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2012
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Parker Herrington 6'1, 185 Sr. 45-48 13-14 92.9% 2-4 50.0%
Will Conant 4-4 0-0 N/A 0-0 N/A
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2012
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Jonathan Warzeka KR 23 21.3 0
Jonathan Lee KR 5'10, 190 So. 6 23.3 0
Jon Davis PR 6 15.3 0
Mikel Hunter PR 5'9, 170 Sr. 4 11.0 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 91
Net Punting 82
Net Kickoffs 75
Touchback Pct 59
Field Goal Pct 12
Kick Returns Avg 70
Punt Returns Avg 30

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Glossary

Adj. Line Yards: A line measure derived from the formula found here. The idea is to divvy credit for a given rush between both the runner and the blockers.

Adj. Pace: Part of the offensive footprint, this takes into account both the number of plays a team attempts and the type of play. Since passes, on average, take up less time (thanks to the fact that 30-50 percent of them are incomplete and stop the clock), pass-heavy offenses are prone to run more plays, therefore limiting the effectiveness of a general plays-per-game measure. Adj. Pace takes a team's run-pass ratio into account.

Adj. POE: An opponent-adjusted "Points Over Expected" measure for running backs that looks both at what a runner gained and what would have been expected given the opponents involved. For more information, start here.

Adj. Points: A look at how a team would have performed in a given week if playing a perfectly average team, with a somewhat average number of breaks and turnovers. The idea for the measure is simple: what if everybody in the country played exactly the same opponent every single week? Who would have done the best? It is an attempt to look at offensive and defensive consistency without getting sidetracked by easy or difficult schedules. And yes, with adjusted score you can allow a negative number of points. For more, start here.

Adj. Record: See Adj. Points.

Adj. Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted measure of sack rates.

Adj. Score: See Adj. Points.

Adj. TO Margin: What a team's turnover margin would have been if they had recovered exactly 50 percent of all the fumbles that occurred in their games. If there is a huge difference between TO Margin and Adj. TO Margin (in other words, if fumbles, dropped interceptions, or other unlucky bounces were the main source of a good/bad TO margin), that suggests that a team's luck was particularly good or bad and might even out the next season.

Adj. Yards Per Target: A look at a receiver's total receiving yards divided by the number of times he was targeted. Slight adjustments are made for the percentage of times a receiver was targeted on standard ("%SD") and passing downs. Players targeted more on passing downs are likely to have a lower overall per-target average, since passing is more difficult on passing downs.

Bend-Don't-Break: Part of the defensive footprint, this is a comparison of a team's Def. Success Rate (efficiency) to its Def. PPP (explosiveness). The higher the number, the higher percentage of a team's overall S&P was made up by success rate, i.e. the more willing a team was to sacrifice efficiency to prevent big plays. (The lower the number, the more likely a team was to take aggressive risks.)

Covariance: Covariance is a statistical tool that provides a measure of the strength of the correlation between two or more sets of random variates. For these purposes, it is used to compare a team's performance (using opponent-adjusted Adj. Score) to the quality of the opponent at hand. Some teams play their best games against their worst opponents, and some teams do the opposite. This measure is used for both the offensive and defensive footprint. For more, go here.

Go After the Ball: Part of the defensive footprint, this looks at a team's forced fumbles, interceptions and passes broken up. In other words, it looks at their ability to go after the ball. The higher the number, the more they got their hands on the football.

Highlight Yards: The portion of a given run that is credit only to the running back; after a certain number of yards, the line has done its job, and most of the rest of the run will be determined by the running back himself. For more information, start here.

Need for Blitzes: Part of the defensive footprint, this compares a team's standard downs sack rate to its passing downs sack rate. The lower the number, the more they were able to generate pressure on standard downs, and the less need for blitzes.

Turnovers Luck: Presented in Points Per Game fashion, Turnovers Luck looks at the difference between a team's Turnover and Adj. TO Margins and, using the average point value of a turnover (~5.0 points), projects how many points a team gained or lost per game last season.

Yards Per Point: A measure long tracked by Phil Steele as a means of looking at teams that were a little too efficient or inefficient the previous season. A positive YPP Margin means a team's offense was less efficient than opponents' offenses, and to the extent that luck was involved, their luck might even out the next year.

In This Article

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