## Selecting the FBS Playoff Teams: Stage #3 - Adjusting Earned Wins

In Stage #2, we calculated the Earned Wins for each team based completely on the raw number of rated wins and total losses. We will now take these unadjusted Earned Wins and use them to recalculate the Earned Wins of each team. This step will be repeated until for every team, the new calculation of Earned Wins does not differ from number of Earned Wins in the immediately preceding step.

While the computer program is running this iterative process, it will also enforce the following rules.

• Each team's rated wins are prorated using the following formula: (12 x RW)/(RW + L). A team's Earned Wins are bounded above by the result of this proration.
• A team's Earned Wins are constricted by its number of win points as follows:
55 win points = maximum of 11 earned wins
45 win points = maximum of 10 earned wins
36 win points = maximum of 9 earned wins
28 win points = maximum of 8 earned wins
21 win points = maximum of 7 earned wins
15 win points = maximum of 6 earned wins
10 win points = maximum of 5 earned wins
6 win points = maximum of 4 earned wins
3 win points = maximum of 3 earned wins
1 win point = maximum of 2 earned wins
0 win points = maximum of 1 earned win

These restrictions keep teams from earning wins by simply not losing to bad teams even though they have few, if any, impressive wins.

The relationship above is defined by the function MAX EW = 0.5(radical(8 x WP + 1)+1). This function is used for all win point values and not just those listed above.

• If a rated team loses to an unrated team, the number of loss points earned by the rated team is calculated by treating the unrated team as a rated team with one exception - the unrated team's losses all earn 11 loss points.
• A single win can earn at most 11 win points and a single loss can earn at most 11 loss points.
• A team's loss points are constricted by its number of actual losses as follows:
1 loss = maximum of 11 loss points
2 losses = maximum of 21 loss points
3 losses = maximum of 30 loss points
4 losses = maximum of 38 loss points
5 losses = maximum of 45 loss points
6 losses = maximum of 51 loss points
7 losses = maximum of 56 loss points
8 losses = maximum of 60 loss points
9 losses = maximum of 63 loss points
10 losses = maximum of 65 loss points
11 losses = maximum of 66 loss points

These restrictions keep teams from accumulating an unrealistic number of loss points based on assumed losses and not actual losses. The relationship above is defined by MAX LP = 0.5 x L(23-L).

The table below shows the adjusted Earned Wins and the secondary Earned Wins for each rated team. Secondary Earned Wins are the result of removing the restriction that Earned Wins cannot exceed actual wins.

 TEAM W L EW EW2 Air Force (CO) 2 10 0.120 0.120 Akron (OH) 5 7 2.667 2.712 Alabama 11 1 9.776 9.776 Arizona 7 5 6.232 6.232 Arizona St. 10 3 9.000 10.351 Arkansas 3 9 1.200 2.451 Arkansas St. 7 5 4.497 4.497 Army (NY) 3 9 0.323 0.323 Auburn (AL) 12 1 11.000 11.641 Ball St. (IN) 10 2 5.587 5.587 Baylor (TX) 11 1 9.735 9.735 Boise St. (ID) 8 4 4.962 4.962 Boston College (MA) 7 5 5.615 5.615 Bowling Green (OH) 10 3 5.843 5.843 Brigham Young (UT) 8 4 6.748 6.748 Buffalo (NY) 8 4 3.848 3.848 California 1 11 0.000 0.907 Central Florida 11 1 7.953 7.953 Central Michigan 6 6 2.545 2.545 Cincinnati (OH) 9 3 4.716 4.716 Clemson (SC) 10 2 8.859 8.859 Colorado 4 8 2.400 2.670 Colorado St. 7 6 2.230 2.230 Connecticut 3 9 0.615 0.615 Duke (NC) 10 3 8.061 8.061 East Carolina (NC) 9 3 5.755 5.755 Eastern Michigan 2 10 0.000 0.091 Florida 4 8 3.915 3.915 Florida Atlantic 6 6 3.538 3.538 Florida St. 13 0 11.138 11.138 Fresno St. (CA) 11 1 7.493 7.493 Georgia 8 4 7.636 8.263 Georgia Tech 7 5 6.000 6.312 Hawaii 1 11 0.029 0.029 Houston (TX) 8 4 5.540 5.540 Idaho 1 11 0.017 0.017 Illinois 4 8 2.400 2.763 Indiana 5 7 4.364 4.866 Iowa 8 4 7.200 7.208 Iowa St. 3 9 1.924 1.924 Kansas 3 9 1.659 1.659 Kansas St. 7 5 5.797 5.797 Kent St. (OH) 4 8 1.333 1.446 Kentucky 2 10 0.000 1.000 Louisiana St. 9 3 7.947 7.947 Louisiana Tech 4 8 0.554 0.554 Louisiana-Lafayette 8 4 4.475 4.475 Louisiana-Monroe 6 6 3.824 3.824 Louisville (KY) 11 1 6.642 6.642 Marshall (WV) 9 4 4.933 4.933 Maryland 7 5 4.905 4.905 Memphis (TN) 3 9 0.734 0.734 Miami (FL) 9 3 7.789 7.789 Michigan 7 5 6.780 6.780 Michigan St. 12 1 10.048 10.048 Middle Tennessee St. 8 4 4.556 4.556 Minnesota 8 4 7.117 7.117 Mississippi 7 5 6.545 6.908 Mississippi St. 6 6 5.455 5.961 Missouri 11 2 10.000 10.236 Navy (MD) 8 4 5.523 5.523 Nebraska 8 4 6.456 6.456 Nevada 4 8 2.153 2.153 Nevada-Las Vegas 7 5 4.068 4.068 New Mexico 3 9 0.301 0.301 New Mexico St. 2 10 0.092 0.092 North Carolina 6 6 5.273 5.273 North Carolina St. 3 9 1.700 1.700 North Dakota State 13 0 3.941 3.941 North Texas 8 4 5.033 5.033 Northern Illinois 12 1 7.476 7.476 Northwestern (IL) 5 7 3.600 4.075 Notre Dame (IN) 8 4 8.000 8.108 Ohio 7 5 3.531 3.531 Ohio St. 12 1 10.034 10.034 Oklahoma 10 2 9.142 9.142 Oklahoma St. 10 2 8.918 8.918 Old Dominion (VA) 8 4 1.033 1.033 Oregon 10 2 8.850 8.850 Oregon St. 6 6 5.250 5.250 Penn St. 7 5 5.930 5.930 Pittsburgh (PA) 6 6 5.515 5.515 Purdue (IN) 1 11 0.000 0.771 Rice (TX) 10 3 6.205 6.205 Rutgers (NJ) 6 6 2.839 2.839 San Diego St. (CA) 7 5 4.354 4.354 San Jose St. (CA) 6 6 3.901 3.901 South Alabama 6 6 3.076 3.076 South Carolina 10 2 9.370 9.370 South Florida 2 10 0.576 0.576 Southern California 9 4 7.967 7.967 Southern Methodist (TX) 5 7 1.923 1.923 Stanford (CA) 11 2 10.154 10.922 Syracuse (NY) 6 6 4.939 4.939 Temple (PA) 2 10 0.187 0.187 Tennessee 5 7 4.364 5.141 Texas 8 4 7.211 7.211 Texas A&M 8 4 7.636 7.687 Texas Christian 4 8 2.918 2.918 Texas St. 6 6 2.224 2.224 Texas Tech 7 5 5.441 5.441 Texas-El Paso 2 10 0.099 0.099 Texas-San Antonio 7 5 4.416 4.416 Toledo (OH) 7 5 4.855 4.855 Troy (AL) 6 6 3.334 3.334 Tulane (LA) 7 5 4.017 4.017 Tulsa (OK) 3 9 0.741 0.741 UCLA 9 3 8.642 8.642 Utah 5 7 4.364 5.200 Utah St. 8 5 4.498 4.498 Vanderbilt (TN) 8 4 6.411 6.411 Virginia 2 10 1.091 1.919 Virginia Tech 8 4 7.519 7.519 Wake Forest (NC) 4 8 3.051 3.051 Washington 8 4 7.395 7.395 Washington St. 6 6 5.455 5.839 West Virginia 4 8 2.400 2.513 Western Kentucky 8 4 4.513 4.513 Wisconsin 9 3 7.854 7.854 Wyoming 5 7 1.294 1.294

Stage #3 is now complete. Next up is the final stage: Stage #4 - Constructing the Playoff Bracket.

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