FanPost

Selecting the FBS Playoff Teams: Stage #1 - Defining the Rated Teams

It would be a mistake to use the labels FBS and FCS as the only factor to determine which teams should be rated. However, we can begin with these designations and calculate the initial Plus-Minus for each FBS team by subtracting losses to FCS schools from wins versus FBS schools.

There were officially 125 FBS teams in 2013. Old Dominion was in a transition year and played five games versus FBS teams and seven games versus FCS teams; therefore, they were not classified as an FBS team. The table below displays the initial Plus-Minus for each FBS team.

TEAM

W

L

RW

UL

+/-

Air Force (CO)

2

10

1

0

1

Akron (OH)

5

7

4

0

4

Alabama

11

1

10

0

10

Alabama-Birmingham

2

10

1

0

1

Arizona

7

5

6

0

6

Arizona St.

10

3

9

0

9

Arkansas

3

9

2

0

2

Arkansas St.

7

5

6

0

6

Army (NY)

3

9

2

0

2

Auburn (AL)

12

1

11

0

11

Ball St. (IN)

10

2

9

0

9

Baylor (TX)

11

1

10

0

10

Boise St. (ID)

8

4

7

0

7

Boston College (MA)

7

5

6

0

6

Bowling Green (OH)

10

3

9

0

9

Brigham Young (UT)

8

4

7

0

7

Buffalo (NY)

8

4

7

0

7

California

1

11

0

0

0

Central Florida

11

1

11

0

11

Central Michigan

6

6

5

0

5

Cincinnati (OH)

9

3

8

0

8

Clemson (SC)

10

2

8

0

8

Colorado

4

8

2

0

2

Colorado St.

7

6

6

0

6

Connecticut

3

9

3

1

2

Duke (NC)

10

3

9

0

9

East Carolina (NC)

9

3

8

0

8

Eastern Michigan

2

10

1

0

1

Florida

4

8

4

1

3

Florida Atlantic

6

6

6

0

6

Florida International

1

11

1

1

0

Florida St.

13

0

12

0

12

Fresno St. (CA)

11

1

10

0

10

Georgia

8

4

7

0

7

Georgia State

0

12

0

3

-3

Georgia Tech

7

5

5

0

5

Hawaii

1

11

1

0

1

Houston (TX)

8

4

7

0

7

Idaho

1

11

1

1

0

Illinois

4

8

3

0

3

Indiana

5

7

4

0

4

Iowa

8

4

7

0

7

Iowa St.

3

9

3

1

2

Kansas

3

9

2

0

2

Kansas St.

7

5

7

1

6

Kent St. (OH)

4

8

3

0

3

Kentucky

2

10

1

0

1

Louisiana St.

9

3

8

0

8

Louisiana Tech

4

8

3

0

3

Louisiana-Lafayette

8

4

7

0

7

Louisiana-Monroe

6

6

5

0

5

Louisville (KY)

11

1

10

0

10

Marshall (WV)

9

4

8

0

8

Maryland

7

5

6

0

6

Massachusetts

1

11

1

1

0

Memphis (TN)

3

9

2

0

2

Miami (FL)

9

3

8

0

8

Miami (OH)

0

12

0

0

0

Michigan

7

5

7

0

7

Michigan St.

12

1

11

0

11

Middle Tennessee St.

8

4

7

0

7

Minnesota

8

4

7

0

7

Mississippi

7

5

6

0

6

Mississippi St.

6

6

5

0

5

Missouri

11

2

10

0

10

Navy (MD)

8

4

7

0

7

Nebraska

8

4

7

0

7

Nevada

4

8

3

0

3

Nevada-Las Vegas

7

5

6

0

6

New Mexico

3

9

3

0

3

New Mexico St.

2

10

1

0

1

North Carolina

6

6

5

0

5

North Carolina St.

3

9

2

0

2

North Texas

8

4

8

0

8

Northern Illinois

12

1

11

0

11

Northwestern (IL)

5

7

4

0

4

Notre Dame (IN)

8

4

8

0

8

Ohio

7

5

6

0

6

Ohio St.

12

1

11

0

11

Oklahoma

10

2

10

0

10

Oklahoma St.

10

2

9

0

9

Oregon

10

2

9

0

9

Oregon St.

6

6

6

1

5

Penn St.

7

5

7

0

7

Pittsburgh (PA)

6

6

5

0

5

Purdue (IN)

1

11

0

0

0

Rice (TX)

10

3

10

0

10

Rutgers (NJ)

6

6

5

0

5

San Diego St. (CA)

7

5

7

1

6

San Jose St. (CA)

6

6

5

0

5

South Alabama

6

6

6

1

5

South Carolina

10

2

9

0

9

South Florida

2

10

2

1

1

Southern California

9

4

9

0

9

Southern Methodist (TX)

5

7

4

0

4

Southern Mississippi

1

11

1

0

1

Stanford (CA)

11

2

11

0

11

Syracuse (NY)

6

6

5

0

5

Temple (PA)

2

10

2

1

1

Tennessee

5

7

4

0

4

Texas

8

4

8

0

8

Texas A&M

8

4

7

0

7

Texas Christian

4

8

3

0

3

Texas St.

6

6

5

0

5

Texas Tech

7

5

6

0

6

Texas-El Paso

2

10

2

0

2

Texas-San Antonio

7

5

7

0

7

Toledo (OH)

7

5

6

0

6

Troy (AL)

6

6

5

0

5

Tulane (LA)

7

5

6

0

6

Tulsa (OK)

3

9

3

0

3

UCLA

9

3

9

0

9

Utah

5

7

4

0

4

Utah St.

8

5

7

0

7

Vanderbilt (TN)

8

4

7

0

7

Virginia

2

10

1

0

1

Virginia Tech

8

4

7

0

7

Wake Forest (NC)

4

8

3

0

3

Washington

8

4

7

0

7

Washington St.

6

6

5

0

5

West Virginia

4

8

3

0

3

Western Kentucky

8

4

7

0

7

Western Michigan

1

11

1

1

0

Wisconsin

9

3

8

0

8

Wyoming

5

7

4

0

4

Georgia State had a Plus-Minus of negative three and clearly should not be counted as a rated team. North Dakota State and Old Dominion were the only FCS teams with a positive Plus-Minus against the FBS and therefore should be added to the list of rated teams. The table below is the result of these amendments.

TEAM

W

L

RW

UL

+/-

Air Force (CO)

2

10

1

0

1

Akron (OH)

5

7

4

0

4

Alabama

11

1

9

0

9

Alabama-Birmingham

2

10

1

0

1

Arizona

7

5

6

0

6

Arizona St.

10

3

9

0

9

Arkansas

3

9

2

0

2

Arkansas St.

7

5

5

0

5

Army (NY)

3

9

2

0

2

Auburn (AL)

12

1

11

0

11

Ball St. (IN)

10

2

9

0

9

Baylor (TX)

11

1

10

0

10

Boise St. (ID)

8

4

7

0

7

Boston College (MA)

7

5

6

0

6

Bowling Green (OH)

10

3

9

0

9

Brigham Young (UT)

8

4

7

0

7

Buffalo (NY)

8

4

7

0

7

California

1

11

0

0

0

Central Florida

11

1

11

0

11

Central Michigan

6

6

5

0

5

Cincinnati (OH)

9

3

8

0

8

Clemson (SC)

10

2

8

0

8

Colorado

4

8

2

0

2

Colorado St.

7

6

6

0

6

Connecticut

3

9

3

1

2

Duke (NC)

10

3

9

0

9

East Carolina (NC)

9

3

9

0

9

Eastern Michigan

2

10

1

0

1

Florida

4

8

4

1

3

Florida Atlantic

6

6

6

0

6

Florida International

1

11

1

1

0

Florida St.

13

0

12

0

12

Fresno St. (CA)

11

1

10

0

10

Georgia

8

4

7

0

7

Georgia Tech

7

5

5

0

5

Hawaii

1

11

1

0

1

Houston (TX)

8

4

7

0

7

Idaho

1

11

1

0

1

Illinois

4

8

3

0

3

Indiana

5

7

4

0

4

Iowa

8

4

7

0

7

Iowa St.

3

9

3

1

2

Kansas

3

9

2

0

2

Kansas St.

7

5

7

0

7

Kent St. (OH)

4

8

3

0

3

Kentucky

2

10

1

0

1

Louisiana St.

9

3

8

0

8

Louisiana Tech

4

8

3

0

3

Louisiana-Lafayette

8

4

6

0

6

Louisiana-Monroe

6

6

4

0

4

Louisville (KY)

11

1

10

0

10

Marshall (WV)

9

4

8

0

8

Maryland

7

5

7

0

7

Massachusetts

1

11

1

1

0

Memphis (TN)

3

9

2

0

2

Miami (FL)

9

3

8

0

8

Miami (OH)

0

12

0

0

0

Michigan

7

5

7

0

7

Michigan St.

12

1

11

0

11

Middle Tennessee St.

8

4

7

0

7

Minnesota

8

4

7

0

7

Mississippi

7

5

6

0

6

Mississippi St.

6

6

5

0

5

Missouri

11

2

10

0

10

Navy (MD)

8

4

7

0

7

Nebraska

8

4

7

0

7

Nevada

4

8

3

0

3

Nevada-Las Vegas

7

5

6

0

6

New Mexico

3

9

3

0

3

New Mexico St.

2

10

1

0

1

North Carolina

6

6

6

0

6

North Carolina St.

3

9

2

0

2

North Dakota State

13

0

1

0

1

North Texas

8

4

8

0

8

Northern Illinois

12

1

11

0

11

Northwestern (IL)

5

7

4

0

4

Notre Dame (IN)

8

4

8

0

8

Ohio

7

5

6

0

6

Ohio St.

12

1

11

0

11

Oklahoma

10

2

10

0

10

Oklahoma St.

10

2

9

0

9

Old Dominion

8

4

1

0

1

Oregon

10

2

9

0

9

Oregon St.

6

6

6

1

5

Penn St.

7

5

7

0

7

Pittsburgh (PA)

6

6

6

0

6

Purdue (IN)

1

11

0

0

0

Rice (TX)

10

3

10

0

10

Rutgers (NJ)

6

6

5

0

5

San Diego St. (CA)

7

5

7

1

6

San Jose St. (CA)

6

6

5

0

5

South Alabama

6

6

5

1

4

South Carolina

10

2

9

0

9

South Florida

2

10

2

1

1

Southern California

9

4

9

0

9

Southern Methodist (TX)

5

7

4

0

4

Southern Mississippi

1

11

1

0

1

Stanford (CA)

11

2

11

0

11

Syracuse (NY)

6

6

5

0

5

Temple (PA)

2

10

2

1

1

Tennessee

5

7

4

0

4

Texas

8

4

8

0

8

Texas A&M

8

4

7

0

7

Texas Christian

4

8

3

0

3

Texas St.

6

6

4

0

4

Texas Tech

7

5

6

0

6

Texas-El Paso

2

10

2

0

2

Texas-San Antonio

7

5

7

0

7

Toledo (OH)

7

5

6

0

6

Troy (AL)

6

6

4

0

4

Tulane (LA)

7

5

6

0

6

Tulsa (OK)

3

9

3

0

3

UCLA

9

3

9

0

9

Utah

5

7

4

0

4

Utah St.

8

5

7

0

7

Vanderbilt (TN)

8

4

7

0

7

Virginia

2

10

1

0

1

Virginia Tech

8

4

7

0

7

Wake Forest (NC)

4

8

3

0

3

Washington

8

4

7

0

7

Washington St.

6

6

5

0

5

West Virginia

4

8

2

0

2

Western Kentucky

8

4

6

0

6

Western Michigan

1

11

1

1

0

Wisconsin

9

3

8

0

8

Wyoming

5

7

4

0

4

Teams with a Plus-Minus of zero are the foundation on which the other rated teams build earned wins, so it is important that these teams are legitimate. Six of the rated teams in the table above have a Plus-Minus of zero. Three of these teams: California, Miami (OH), and Purdue, do not have a loss to an unrated team and therefore will remain. The other three teams: Florida International, Massachusetts, and Western Michigan require further scrutiny as illustrated below. In each situation, games involving the team being scrutinized are ignored.

Florida International beat Southern Miss (+1) and lost to Bethune-Cookman (-2), so at the second level Florida International has a negative Plus-Minus and will be dropped.

Massachusetts beat Miami, Ohio (0) and lost to Maine (-2), so Massachusetts has a negative Plus-Minus at the second level and will be dropped.

Western Michigan beat Massachusetts (0) and lost to Nicholls State (-6), so Western Michigan has a negative Plus-Minus at the second level and will be dropped.

Continuing with the same process forces three other teams to be dropped: Alabama-Birmingham, Miami (OH), and Southern Mississippi. No more teams deserve to be added, so the final total number of rated teams is 120. This total includes 118 FBS teams and 2 FCS teams. The table below shows the final list of rated teams.

TEAM

W

L

RW

UL

+/-

Air Force (CO)

2

10

1

0

1

Akron (OH)

5

7

2

0

2

Alabama

11

1

9

0

9

Arizona

7

5

6

0

6

Arizona St.

10

3

9

0

9

Arkansas

3

9

1

0

1

Arkansas St.

7

5

5

0

5

Army (NY)

3

9

2

0

2

Auburn (AL)

12

1

11

0

11

Ball St. (IN)

10

2

7

0

7

Baylor (TX)

11

1

10

0

10

Boise St. (ID)

8

4

6

0

6

Boston College (MA)

7

5

6

0

6

Bowling Green (OH)

10

3

7

0

7

Brigham Young (UT)

8

4

7

0

7

Buffalo (NY)

8

4

4

0

4

California

1

11

0

0

0

Central Florida

11

1

10

0

10

Central Michigan

6

6

2

0

2

Cincinnati (OH)

9

3

7

0

7

Clemson (SC)

10

2

8

0

8

Colorado

4

8

2

0

2

Colorado St.

7

6

6

0

6

Connecticut

3

9

3

1

2

Duke (NC)

10

3

9

0

9

East Carolina (NC)

9

3

6

0

6

Eastern Michigan

2

10

0

0

0

Florida

4

8

4

1

3

Florida Atlantic

6

6

3

0

3

Florida St.

13

0

12

0

12

Fresno St. (CA)

11

1

10

0

10

Georgia

8

4

7

0

7

Georgia Tech

7

5

5

0

5

Hawaii

1

11

1

0

1

Houston (TX)

8

4

7

0

7

Idaho

1

11

1

0

1

Illinois

4

8

2

0

2

Indiana

5

7

4

0

4

Iowa

8

4

6

0

6

Iowa St.

3

9

3

1

2

Kansas

3

9

2

0

2

Kansas St.

7

5

6

0

6

Kent St. (OH)

4

8

1

0

1

Kentucky

2

10

0

0

0

Louisiana St.

9

3

7

0

7

Louisiana Tech

4

8

1

0

1

Louisiana-Lafayette

8

4

6

0

6

Louisiana-Monroe

6

6

4

0

4

Louisville (KY)

11

1

9

0

9

Marshall (WV)

9

4

4

0

4

Maryland

7

5

6

0

6

Memphis (TN)

3

9

2

0

2

Miami (FL)

9

3

8

0

8

Michigan

7

5

7

0

7

Michigan St.

12

1

10

0

10

Middle Tennessee St.

8

4

4

0

4

Minnesota

8

4

7

0

7

Mississippi

7

5

6

0

6

Mississippi St.

6

6

5

0

5

Missouri

11

2

10

0

10

Navy (MD)

8

4

7

0

7

Nebraska

8

4

6

0

6

Nevada

4

8

3

0

3

Nevada-Las Vegas

7

5

6

0

6

New Mexico

3

9

3

0

3

New Mexico St.

2

10

1

0

1

North Carolina

6

6

6

0

6

North Carolina St.

3

9

2

0

2

North Dakota State

15

0

1

0

1

North Texas

8

4

7

0

7

Northern Illinois

12

1

9

0

9

Northwestern (IL)

5

7

3

0

3

Notre Dame (IN)

8

4

8

0

8

Ohio

7

5

4

0

4

Ohio St.

12

1

11

0

11

Oklahoma

10

2

10

0

10

Oklahoma St.

10

2

9

0

9

Old Dominion

8

4

1

0

1

Oregon

10

2

9

0

9

Oregon St.

6

6

6

1

5

Penn St.

7

5

7

0

7

Pittsburgh (PA)

6

6

6

0

6

Purdue (IN)

1

11

0

0

0

Rice (TX)

10

3

9

0

9

Rutgers (NJ)

6

6

5

0

5

San Diego St. (CA)

7

5

7

1

6

San Jose St. (CA)

6

6

5

0

5

South Alabama

6

6

5

1

4

South Carolina

10

2

9

0

9

South Florida

2

10

2

1

1

Southern California

9

4

9

0

9

Southern Methodist (TX)

5

7

4

0

4

Stanford (CA)

11

2

11

0

11

Syracuse (NY)

6

6

5

0

5

Temple (PA)

2

10

2

1

1

Tennessee

5

7

4

0

4

Texas

8

4

8

0

8

Texas A&M

8

4

7

0

7

Texas Christian

4

8

3

0

3

Texas St.

6

6

3

0

3

Texas Tech

7

5

6

0

6

Texas-El Paso

2

10

1

0

1

Texas-San Antonio

7

5

6

0

6

Toledo (OH)

7

5

5

0

5

Troy (AL)

6

6

3

0

3

Tulane (LA)

7

5

6

0

6

Tulsa (OK)

3

9

3

0

3

UCLA

9

3

9

0

9

Utah

5

7

4

0

4

Utah St.

8

5

7

0

7

Vanderbilt (TN)

8

4

5

0

5

Virginia

2

10

1

0

1

Virginia Tech

8

4

7

0

7

Wake Forest (NC)

4

8

3

0

3

Washington

8

4

7

0

7

Washington St.

6

6

5

0

5

West Virginia

4

8

2

0

2

Western Kentucky

8

4

6

0

6

Wisconsin

9

3

7

0

7

Wyoming

5

7

4

0

4

Stage #1 is complete. Up next is Stage #2: Calculating Unadjusted Earned Wins.

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