2013 Targets and Catches

Thomas B. Shea

Yesterday was Rushing Stats day. Today, it's receiving. Here is a spreadsheet (too big for Google Docs) with all sorts of goodies in it:

Targets, Catches, Receiving yards. Here's your reminder that targets are catches plus the "incomplete to ____" data you find in the official play-by-play.

Catch Rate. Catches divided by tarets.

Yards per Target and Yards per Catch. Self-explanatory.

Target Rate. This is the percent of the team's overall targets accounted for by the player in question.

%SD. This is the percentage of a players targets that took place on standard downs as opposed to passing downs. (NOTE: This year, all Standard and Passing Downs data have garbage time filtered out. In the spreadsheet above, you can see all sorts of data filtered by Standard and Passing Downs. But if you add those numbers together, it might not match the overall totals because of garbage time.)

Net Expected Yards (NEY). This is something I've been tinkering with. It's based around this premise: Let's pretend for a moment that a player's catch rate is mostly on the quarterback. The quarterback's job is to get the ball to the player, and the player's job is to gain yards. Simplistic? Absolutely. But we can make an estimate of a player's likely yards per catch based on the catch rate: higher catch rate, lower yards per catch (because of easier passes). With this figure, we determine a player's likely yards per catch, then compare it to the player's actual rate.

Net Expected Yards = Actual Receiving Yards - (Projected Yards Per Catch * Targets)

A positive NEY means the player gained more yards than projected. (The NEY/Target number, then, looks at the rate at which a player exceeds his projections.)

Real Yards Per Target. As a whole, players with a higher rate of Standard Downs targets can expect to average greater yards per target because it's easier to pass on Standard Downs. Real Yards Per Target looks at what players' averages would be if they were all targeted the same frequency on Standard and Passing Downs.

RYPRDefined here. "Below, you will find a measure that attempts to answer the following questions about a given pass-catcher: 1) How much do you produce? 2) How important are you to your team's passing game? 3) How good is the passing game to which you are important? 4) And how much is the forward pass featured in your team's offense?"

There are a lot of ways to evaluate receivers here, and since I don't have a feel for which one is better than another, I'm just including them all.


Below are the top 100 FBS receivers in 2013, ranked according to total Net Expected Yards. Some quick conclusions:

1. Just imagine what Mike Evans' numbers must have looked like before his awful performances against LSU and Missouri (and his combustion against Duke).

2. Allen Hurns was the most underrated receiver in the country in 2013.

3. Fun with small sample sizes: Kansas State totally should have thrown to Glenn Gronkowski about 10 times per game!

Offense Player Tgts Catches Yards Catch Rate Yds Per Tgt Target % Yds Per Catch %SD Net Exp Yds Rk NEY/
Tgt
Real Yds/ Tgt RYPR Rk
Texas A&M Mike Evans 99 69 1394 69.7% 14.1 21.1% 20.2 72.2% 590.6 1 5.97 13.8 234.2 3
Baylor Antwan Goodley 109 72 1349 66.1% 12.4 25.1% 18.7 47.6% 488.3 2 4.48 11.4 223.1 7
LSU Odell Beckham Jr. 90 59 1152 65.6% 12.8 28.7% 19.5 57.5% 444.0 3 4.93 12.4 220.1 9
San Jose State Chandler Jones 112 79 1356 70.5% 12.1 23.5% 17.2 57.9% 441.5 4 3.94 12.9 179.0 19
Oregon Josh Huff 90 62 1140 68.9% 12.7 23.0% 18.4 65.4% 414.0 5 4.60 12.9 192.3 15
Baylor Tevin Reese 64 38 867 59.4% 13.5 14.7% 22.8 64.6% 387.3 6 6.05 14.3 143.4 35
Miami-FL Allen Hurns 104 62 1162 59.6% 11.2 29.1% 18.7 46.8% 380.9 7 3.66 11.7 242.8 1
Florida State Kelvin Benjamin 87 54 1011 62.1% 11.6 20.9% 18.7 60.0% 344.8 8 3.96 11.6 204.0 12
Clemson Sammy Watkins 131 101 1464 77.1% 11.2 27.6% 14.5 64.5% 342.8 9 2.62 11.1 220.6 8
Central Michigan Titus Davis 102 61 1109 59.8% 10.9 32.2% 18.2 44.9% 341.8 10 3.35 9.8 157.2 28
Auburn Sammie Coates 80 42 902 52.5% 11.3 29.3% 21.5 47.3% 335.3 11 4.19 10.8 138.4 43
Central Florida Breshad Perriman 63 39 811 61.9% 12.9 16.4% 20.8 55.7% 329.2 12 5.23 12.7 139.0 41
Kansas State Tyler Lockett 114 81 1262 71.1% 11.1 38.8% 15.6 58.0% 327.6 13 2.87 11.2 241.6 2
LSU Jarvis Landry 104 77 1193 74.0% 11.5 33.1% 15.5 44.6% 322.0 14 3.10 11.1 228.0 5
Clemson Martavis Bryant 65 42 828 64.6% 12.7 13.7% 19.7 67.9% 320.3 15 4.93 12.6 124.8 55
San Diego State Ezell Ruffin 107 68 1146 63.6% 10.7 24.9% 16.9 50.0% 317.1 16 2.96 11.4 108.7 86
Illinois Steve Hull 83 59 993 71.1% 12.0 19.0% 16.8 62.7% 312.6 17 3.77 11.9 145.7 34
Florida State Kenny Shaw 76 54 933 71.1% 12.3 18.3% 17.3 54.2% 310.1 18 4.08 13.5 188.2 16
UAB Jamarcus Nelson 74 42 846 56.8% 11.4 22.1% 20.1 54.4% 302.9 19 4.09 11.8 112.3 83
Oregon State Brandin Cooks 168 128 1730 76.2% 10.3 28.2% 13.5 62.8% 301.3 20 1.79 10.7 228.2 4
Michigan Jeremy Gallon 137 89 1373 65.0% 10.0 37.1% 15.4 56.7% 300.2 21 2.19 9.8 208.0 10
Colorado Paul Richardson 139 83 1343 59.7% 9.7 36.0% 16.2 67.0% 298.3 22 2.15 9.6 197.8 14
Stanford Devon Cajuste 45 28 642 62.2% 14.3 15.4% 22.9 55.8% 297.0 23 6.60 13.1 113.6 78
South Alabama Shavarez Smith 85 50 928 58.8% 10.9 23.4% 18.6 62.8% 293.7 24 3.45 11.7 127.5 51
Utah Dres Anderson 105 53 1002 50.5% 9.5 29.2% 18.9 43.0% 271.0 25 2.58 10.8 146.6 33
Offense Player Tgts Catches Yards Catch Rate Yds Per Tgt Target % Yds Per Catch %SD Net Exp Yds Rk NEY/
Tgt
Real Yds/ Tgt RYPR Rk
Penn State Allen Robinson 150 97 1432 64.7% 9.5 38.8% 14.8 52.7% 260.0 26 1.73 9.5 179.1 18
Georgia State Albert Wilson 125 71 1177 56.8% 9.4 31.6% 16.6 52.0% 259.3 27 2.07 8.6 118.4 68
Notre Dame TJ Jones 109 70 1108 64.2% 10.2 26.7% 15.8 65.4% 259.3 28 2.38 10.3 170.6 21
Ohio Chase Cochran 53 37 689 69.8% 13.0 13.1% 18.6 75.0% 258.5 29 4.88 11.7 95.1 115
Buffalo Alex Neutz 102 61 1024 59.8% 10.0 25.4% 16.8 56.4% 256.8 30 2.52 8.7 110.7 84
Cincinnati Mekale McKay 34 16 485 47.1% 14.3 7.6% 30.3 59.3% 255.3 31 7.51 14.2 61.0 244
Fresno State Davante Adams 175 131 1726 74.9% 9.9 27.6% 13.2 68.8% 251.7 32 1.44 9.7 205.4 11
Bowling Green Ronnie Moore 34 28 547 82.4% 16.1 8.8% 19.5 72.0% 245.3 33 7.21 18.2 75.8 174
Utah State Travis Reynolds 72 51 832 70.8% 11.6 15.8% 16.3 56.3% 242.8 34 3.37 10.8 81.7 155
Stanford Michael Rector 27 14 431 51.9% 16.0 9.2% 30.8 60.0% 240.8 35 8.92 16.3 76.2 173
Louisville DeVante Parker 80 55 885 68.8% 11.1 18.7% 16.1 57.4% 240.4 36 3.00 9.4 136.2 46
Missouri L'Damian Washington 90 50 893 55.6% 9.9 20.6% 17.9 67.9% 239.0 37 2.66 10.7 116.9 71
Hawaii Chris Gant 97 59 973 60.8% 10.0 20.0% 16.5 59.3% 237.5 38 2.45 9.1 98.0 110
Central Florida Rannell Hall 78 57 886 73.1% 11.4 20.3% 15.5 60.3% 237.2 39 3.04 10.8 151.9 31
USC Nelson Agholor 89 56 918 62.9% 10.3 24.4% 16.4 50.6% 231.9 40 2.61 10.8 132.3 49
Indiana Cody Latimer 110 72 1096 65.5% 10.0 24.2% 15.2 62.1% 231.4 41 2.10 10.8 158.7 26
Vanderbilt Jonathan Krause 59 42 714 71.2% 12.1 16.5% 17.0 58.3% 230.0 42 3.90 10.3 88.8 132
Florida State Rashad Greene 113 76 1128 67.3% 10.0 27.2% 14.8 63.0% 227.6 43 2.01 11.1 227.6 6
SMU Keenan Holman 104 67 1037 64.4% 10.0 17.5% 15.5 68.3% 225.9 44 2.17 10.2 113.8 77
North Carolina Eric Ebron 96 62 973 64.6% 10.1 22.2% 15.7 56.0% 223.4 45 2.33 10.7 135.3 48
Texas A&M Derel Walker 74 51 818 68.9% 11.1 15.8% 16.0 65.2% 221.0 46 2.99 11.8 137.4 45
Temple Robbie Anderson 78 44 791 56.4% 10.1 20.1% 18.0 60.9% 220.2 47 2.82 10.9 104.8 95
Baylor Levi Norwood 60 47 733 78.3% 12.2 13.8% 15.6 58.1% 215.0 48 3.58 11.9 121.2 60
Marshall Gator Hoskins 78 50 821 64.1% 10.5 15.5% 16.4 58.8% 214.2 49 2.75 10.3 97.5 111
UNLV Devante Davis 146 87 1307 59.6% 9.0 31.8% 15.0 61.4% 210.7 50 1.44 10.1 140.8 38
Offense Player Tgts Catches Yards Catch Rate Yds Per Tgt Target % Yds Per Catch %SD Net Exp Yds Rk NEY/
Tgt
Real Yds/ Tgt RYPR Rk
Connecticut Geremy Davis 114 71 1085 62.3% 9.5 27.9% 15.3 53.0% 210.6 51 1.85 8.8 120.0 66
Stanford Ty Montgomery 98 61 958 62.2% 9.8 33.4% 15.7 55.3% 206.5 52 2.11 9.8 169.5 22
South Carolina Bruce Ellington 70 49 775 70.0% 11.1 18.9% 15.8 51.5% 205.7 53 2.94 11.5 139.1 40
Ball State Willie Snead 172 106 1516 61.6% 8.8 34.6% 14.3 69.5% 203.5 54 1.18 9.1 201.1 13
Troy Bryan Holmes 60 40 676 66.7% 11.3 13.2% 16.9 70.9% 200.0 55 3.33 11.9 85.4 142
Arizona State Jaelen Strong 120 75 1122 62.5% 9.4 25.3% 15.0 63.6% 200.0 56 1.67 9.3 154.3 29
Bowling Green Shaun Joplin 98 54 908 55.1% 9.3 25.5% 16.8 52.3% 198.5 57 2.03 9.2 125.9 53
Pittsburgh Devin Street 89 51 854 57.3% 9.6 23.5% 16.7 44.6% 197.9 58 2.22 8.8 116.7 72
UL-Monroe Rashon Ceaser 96 65 964 67.7% 10.0 21.8% 14.8 55.8% 196.4 59 2.05 10.8 106.6 90
Miami-FL Stacy Coley 50 33 591 66.0% 11.8 14.0% 17.9 40.0% 196.3 60 3.93 12.5 123.5 57
Pittsburgh Tyler Boyd 119 85 1174 71.4% 9.9 31.4% 13.8 60.9% 196.0 61 1.65 10.0 160.5 25
Troy Eric Thomas 102 66 993 64.7% 9.7 22.4% 15.0 58.8% 195.8 62 1.92 10.2 125.5 54
Florida State Nick O'Leary 42 33 557 78.6% 13.3 10.1% 16.9 40.7% 193.8 63 4.61 11.0 112.4 82
Ball State Jordan Williams 108 72 1050 66.7% 9.7 21.7% 14.6 52.5% 193.2 64 1.79 9.1 139.3 39
UL-Lafayette Jamal Robinson 88 54 862 61.4% 9.8 29.4% 16.0 61.7% 191.9 65 2.18 9.6 127.5 50
West Virginia Mario Alford 51 27 552 52.9% 10.8 11.6% 20.4 46.8% 189.4 66 3.71 11.6 68.4 207
Houston Deontay Greenberry 133 82 1203 61.7% 9.0 26.7% 14.7 53.9% 187.9 67 1.41 9.2 142.6 36
Vanderbilt Jordan Matthews 157 112 1477 71.3% 9.4 43.9% 13.2 61.5% 187.5 68 1.19 8.9 183.7 17
Alabama DeAndrew White 41 32 534 78.0% 13.0 11.7% 16.7 64.9% 180.8 69 4.41 13.1 98.7 108
NC State Quintin Payton 45 24 500 53.3% 11.1 11.3% 20.8 28.6% 179.0 70 3.98 11.2 55.3 275
Alabama Amari Cooper 74 45 736 60.8% 9.9 21.1% 16.4 64.2% 174.9 71 2.36 9.9 136.0 47
Ohio Donte Foster 110 69 1021 62.7% 9.3 27.2% 14.8 46.9% 174.3 72 1.58 9.8 141.0 37
San Jose State Tyler Winston 86 58 858 67.4% 10.0 18.0% 14.8 54.2% 171.8 73 2.00 10.0 113.3 81
Central Florida J.J. Worton 68 47 721 69.1% 10.6 17.7% 15.3 60.3% 171.6 74 2.52 10.0 123.6 56
North Carolina Quinshad Davis 69 48 730 69.6% 10.6 15.9% 15.2 62.9% 170.6 75 2.47 10.0 101.5 104
Offense Player Tgts Catches Yards Catch Rate Yds Per Tgt Target % Yds Per Catch %SD Net Exp Yds Rk NEY/
Tgt
Real Yds/ Tgt RYPR Rk
Boise State Matt Miller 112 88 1138 78.6% 10.2 25.5% 12.9 59.6% 169.5 76 1.51 9.0 138.5 42
Ohio State Jeff Heuerman 36 26 466 72.2% 12.9 10.3% 17.9 70.6% 168.4 77 4.68 11.9 68.6 204
Georgia Tech Robert Godhigh 42 23 471 54.8% 11.2 23.6% 20.5 50.0% 167.8 78 4.00 11.2 72.9 184
Alabama Kevin Norwood 44 38 568 86.4% 12.9 12.6% 14.9 44.7% 167.0 79 3.79 12.6 104.9 94
Maryland Stefon Diggs 56 34 587 60.7% 10.5 14.3% 17.3 67.4% 162.7 80 2.91 11.4 81.3 157
North Texas Brelan Chancellor 80 53 792 66.3% 9.9 21.1% 14.9 53.2% 159.3 81 1.99 10.0 102.2 102
Kansas State Tramaine Thompson 51 32 551 62.7% 10.8 17.3% 17.2 62.5% 158.4 82 3.11 11.7 105.5 91
Washington Kevin Smith 78 50 765 64.1% 9.8 20.2% 15.3 56.8% 158.2 83 2.03 9.1 99.6 106
UL-Lafayette Elijah McGuire 24 22 384 91.7% 16.0 8.0% 17.5 77.3% 157.6 84 6.57 15.1 56.8 267
Bowling Green Alex Bayer 54 37 585 68.5% 10.8 14.0% 15.8 55.1% 150.6 85 2.79 9.4 81.1 159
South Carolina Shaq Roland 40 25 455 62.5% 11.4 10.8% 18.2 68.4% 147.7 86 3.69 11.2 81.6 156
Marshall Devon Smith 69 39 653 56.5% 9.5 13.7% 16.7 49.2% 147.6 87 2.14 9.3 77.6 167
Boston College Alex Amidon 108 77 1032 71.3% 9.6 44.1% 13.4 48.0% 145.2 88 1.34 9.8 163.8 24
Ole Miss Donte Moncrief 112 59 938 52.7% 8.4 24.7% 15.9 50.5% 143.4 89 1.28 8.2 117.9 69
Mississippi State Jameon Lewis 101 64 923 63.4% 9.1 24.6% 14.4 49.4% 141.7 90 1.40 8.9 114.9 74
Rice Jordan Taylor 96 55 848 57.3% 8.8 29.7% 15.4 58.2% 140.4 91 1.46 8.9 91.7 121
Missouri Dorial Green-Beckham 99 59 883 59.6% 8.9 22.7% 15.0 59.8% 139.6 92 1.41 9.4 115.6 73
Troy Chandler Worthy 29 25 403 86.2% 13.9 6.4% 16.1 63.0% 139.0 93 4.79 12.2 50.9 301
Wisconsin Jared Abbrederis 122 78 1086 63.9% 8.9 37.1% 13.9 61.0% 138.1 94 1.13 8.8 158.5 27
South Carolina Damiere Byrd 61 33 575 54.1% 9.4 16.5% 17.4 60.3% 137.1 95 2.25 9.8 103.2 99
South Alabama Danny Woodson 38 26 439 68.4% 11.6 10.4% 16.9 50.0% 133.5 96 3.51 11.9 60.3 247
TCU David Porter 37 26 435 70.3% 11.8 9.5% 16.7 78.4% 133.5 97 3.61 12.1 57.9 261
Kansas State Glenn Gronkowski 8 5 194 62.5% 24.3 2.7% 38.8 75.0% 132.5 98 16.57 22.0 37.1 422
Virginia Tech Joshua Stanford 68 40 640 58.8% 9.4 16.9% 16.0 49.2% 132.5 99 1.95 9.5 79.7 163
Southern Miss Markese Triplett 58 33 558 56.9% 9.6 13.5% 16.9 53.5% 131.9 100 2.27 8.5 69.5 199

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