Using Bill Connelly’s win projections at Football Study Hall (top contenders, Pac-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12) and F/+ ratings, I have projected all of the remaining games for remaining relevant teams in the College Football Playoff rankings.
See the first projections for more explanation.
Here are my updated top four using advanced stats projections and a little bit of intuition. Ole Miss' loss to LSU caused a decent shake up over last week. Read on to find out how I came to my conclusions.
TOP FOUR
1. Florida St.
2. Alabama
3. TCU
4. Oregon
Below are the projected results of each team's remaining FBS schedule. Changes in projections are in bold.
#1 Mississippi St
Current Record: 8-0Current Conference Record: 5-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
12 | @ Alabama | L | 9-1 | 5-1 |
13 | Vanderbilt | W | 10-1 | 6-1 |
14 | @ Ole Miss | L | 10-2 | 6-2 |
#2 Florida St
Current Record: 8-0Current Conference Record: 5-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | Virginia | W | 9-0 | 6-0 |
12 | @ Miami | Toss-Up | 10-0 or 9-1 | 7-0 or 6-1 |
13 | Boston College | W | 11-0 or 10-1 | 8-0 or 7-1 |
14 | Florida | W | 12-0 or 11-1 | 8-0 or 7-1 |
15 | ACC Championship | W | 13-0 or 12-1 | 9-0* or 8-1* |
#3 Auburn
Current Record: 7-1Current Conference Record: 4-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | Texas A&M | W | 8-1 | 5-1 |
12 | @ Georgia | W | 9-1 | 6-1 |
14 | @ Alabama | Toss-Up | 11-1 or 10-2 | 7-1 or 6-2 |
15 | SEC Championship or Bye | W or N/A | 12-1 or 10-2 | 8-1* or 6-2 |
#4 Oregon
Current Record: 8-1Current Conference Record: 5-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | @ Utah | W | 9-1 | 6-1 |
13 | Colorado | W | 10-1 | 7-1 |
14 | @ Oregon St | W | 11-1 | 8-1 |
15 | Pac-12 Championship | W | 12-1 | 9-1* |
#5 Alabama
Current Record: 7-1Current Conference Record: 4-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | @ LSU | W | 8-1 | 5-1 |
12 | Mississippi St | W | 9-1 | 6-1 |
14 | Auburn | Toss-Up | 11-1 or 10-2 | 7-1 or 6-2 |
15 | SEC Championship or Bye | W | 12-1 or 10-2 | 8-1* or 6-2 |
#6 TCU
Current Record: 7-1Current Conference Record: 4-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | K-State | W | 8-1 | 5-1 |
12 | @ Kansas | W | 9-1 | 6-1 |
14 | @ Texas | W | 10-1 | 7-1 |
15 | Iowa St | W | 11-1 | 8-1* |
#7 Kansas St
Current Record: 7-1Current Conference Record: 5-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | @ TCU | L | 7-2 | 5-1 |
13 | @ West Virginia | W | 8-2 | 6-1 |
14 | Kansas | W | 9-2 | 7-1 |
15 | @ Baylor | Toss-Up | 10-2 or 9-3 | 8-1 or 7-2 |
#8 Michigan St
Current Record: 7-1Current Conference Record: 4-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | Ohio St | Toss-Up | 8-1 or 7-2 | 5-0 or 4-1 |
12 | @ Maryland | W | 9-1 or 8-2 | 6-0 or 5-1 |
13 | Rutgers | W | 10-1 or 9-2 | 7-0 or 6-1 |
14 | @ Penn St | W | 11-1 or 10-2 | 8-0 or 7-1 |
15 | Big Ten Championship | W or Bye | 12-1 or 10-2 | 9-0* or 7-1 |
#9 Arizona St
Current Record: 7-1Current Conference Record: 5-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | Notre Dame | W | 8-1 | 5-1 |
12 | @ Oregon St | W | 9-1 | 6-1 |
13 | Washington St | W | 10-1 | 7-1 |
14 | @ Arizona | Toss-Up | 11-1 or 10-2 | 8-1 or 7-2 |
15 | Pac-12 Championship or Bye | L or N/A | 11-2 or 10-2 | 8-2 or 7-2 |
#10 Notre Dame
Current Record: 7-1Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record |
11 | @ Arizona St | L | 7-2 |
12 | Northwestern | W | 8-2 |
13 | Louisville | Toss-Up | 9-2 or 8-3 |
14 | @ USC | L | 9-3 or 8-4 |
#11 Ole Miss
Current Record: 7-2Current Conference Record: 4-2
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
13 | @ Arkansas | W | 9-2 | 5-2 |
14 | Mississippi St | W | 10-2 | 6-2 |
#12 Baylor
Current Record: 7-1Current Conference Record: 4-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | @ Oklahoma | L | 7-2 | 4-2 |
13 | Oklahoma St | W | 8-2 | 5-2 |
14 | Texas Tech | W | 9-2 | 6-2 |
15 | K-State | Toss-Up | 10-2 or 9-3 | 7-2 or 6-3 |
#13 Nebraska
Current Record: 8-1Current Conference Record: 4-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
12 | @ Wisconsin | W | 9-1 | 5-1 |
13 | Minnesota | W | 10-1 | 6-1 |
14 | @ Iowa | W | 11-1 | 7-1 |
15 | Big Ten Championship | L | 11-2 | 7-2 |
#14 Ohio St
Current Record: 7-1Current Conference Record: 4-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | @ Michigan St | Toss-Up | 8-1 or 7-2 | 5-0 or 4-1 |
12 | @ Minnesota | W | 9-1 or 8-2 | 6-0 or 5-1 |
13 | Indiana | W | 10-1 or 9-2 | 7-0 or 6-1 |
14 | Michigan | W | 11-1 or 10-2 | 8-0 or 7-1 |
15 | Big Ten Championship or Bye | W | 12-1 or 10-2 | 9-0* or 7-1 |
#15 Oklahoma
Current Record: 6-2Current Conference Record: 3-2
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | Baylor | W | 7-2 | 4-2 |
12 | @ Texas Tech | W | 8-2 | 5-2 |
13 | Kansas | W | 9-2 | 6-2 |
15 | Oklahoma St | W | 10-2 | 7-2 |
#18 UCLA
Current Record: 7-2Current Conference Record: 4-2
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | Washington | W | 8-2 | 5-2 |
13 | USC | W | 9-2 | 6-2 |
14 | Stanford | W | 10-2 | 7-2 |
15 | Bye or Pac-12 Championship* | L | 10-3 or 10-2 | 7-3 or 7-2 |
#19 Arizona
Current Record: 6-2Current Conference Record: 3-2
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | Colorado | W | 7-2 | 4-2 |
12 | Washington | W | 8-2 | 5-2 |
13 | @ Utah | Toss-Up | 9-2 or 8-3 | 6-2 or 5-3 |
14 | Arizona St | Toss-Up | 10-2, 9-3, or 8-4 | 7-2, 6-3, or 5-4 |
#22 Duke
Current Record: 7-1Current Conference Record: 3-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Week | Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
11 | @ Syracuse | W | 8-1 | 4-1 |
12 | Virginia Tech | W | 9-1 | 5-1 |
13 | North Carolina | W | 10-1 | 6-1 |
14 | Wake Forest | W | 11-1 | 7-1 |
15 | ACC Championship | L | 11-2 | 7-2 |
Toss-Up Predictions
Florida St: Lady Luck seems to be on the Seminoles side. Unfortunately, I'm changing my prediction. FSU beats the Hurricanes on the road and finishes 12-0.
Auburn/Alabama: With the "Pick 6" in their minds and playing at home, I can't see Alabama losing this game. Auburn finishes 10-2 and Alabama is your 11-1 SEC West Division winner.
K-State/Baylor: After this week's game against TCU, we'll know better how the Wildcats will fair against a high-powered offense on the road. Until then, I'm picking Baylor at home. K-State 9-3, Baylor 10-2.
Michigan St./Ohio St.: Ohio St. has been a strange team this year while Michigan St. seems much more consistent to me. I'll take Michigan St. at home. Sparty 11-1, Buckeyes 10-2.
Arizona St./Arizona: ASU over the Cats in Tucson. ASU wins the Pac-12 South.
Arizona/Utah: I like Utah on the road against Arizona. Couple that with Arizona’s loss to ASU and Tucson and Salt Lake both finish 8-4.
Notre Dame: Louisville loses on the road to Notre Dame. Irish go 9-3.
Projected Records
TEAM | PROJ CONF REC | PROJ FINAL REC | W/ TOSS-UP PREDICTIONS |
Florida St | 9-0* or 8-1* | 13-0* or 12-1* | 13-0* |
Alabama | 8-1* or 6-2 | 12-1* or 10-2 | 12-1* |
Auburn | 8-1* or 6-2 | 12-1* or 10-2 | 10-2 |
Oregon | 9-1 | 12-1* | 12-1* |
Michigan State | 9-0* or 7-1 | 12-1* or 10-2 | 12-1* |
Ohio State | 9-0* or 7-1 | 12-1* or 10-2 | 10-2 |
TCU | 8-1 | 11-1* | 11-1* |
Nebraska | 7-2 | 11-2 | 11-2 |
Duke | 7-2 | 11-2 | 11-2 |
Arizona State | 8-2 or 7-2 | 11-2 or 10-2 | 11-2 |
Ole Miss | 6-2 | 10-2 | 10-2 |
Mississippi St | 6-2 | 10-2 | 10-2 |
Oklahoma | 7-2 | 10-2 | 10-2 |
UCLA | 7-3, or 7-2 | 10-3 or 10-2 | 10-2 |
Baylor | 7-2 or 6-3 | 10-2 or 9-3 | 10-2 |
Kansas State | 8-1 or 7-2 | 10-2 or 9-3 | 9-3 |
Arizona | 7-2, 6-3, or 5-4 | 10-2, 9-3, or 8-4 | 8-4 |
Notre Dame | 9-3 or 8-4 | 9-3 |
Playoff Candidates
Team | Reason |
Florida St | ACC Champ |
Alabama | SEC Champ |
Oregon | Pac-12 Champ |
Michigan St | Big Ten Champ |
TCU | Big 12 Champ |
Arizona St | Pac-12 Runners-Up |
Nebraska | Big Ten Runners-Up |
Duke | ACC Runners-Up |
Auburn/Mississippi St. | SEC Bias |
Who’s in?
An undefeated ACC champ is in: Florida St.
A one-loss SEC champ is in: Alabama.
One-loss conference champions from the Pac-12, Big Ten and Big 12 plus another possible SEC team are our remaining candidates.
Oregon lost to un-ranked Arizona and had a close one against Washington St, but handled #7 Michigan St with relative ease, beat #18 UCLA on the road, and is projected to beat #17 Utah on the road. Three quality wins, no "quality losses," one "bad loss," and one close-call.
Michigan St has the afore mentioned loss to the Ducks, beat #19 Nebraska and I predict will beat #14 Ohio St and #13 Nebraska again in the Big Ten Championship. Otherwise, their schedule is somewhat lacking. However, beating a top-25 team twice is nothing to shake a stick at. Three projected quality wins and one "quality loss." Unfortunately, that loss came to another playoff contender which gives the Ducks the advantage here. Oregon's in.
TCU is an easy team in this group to put in the playoff. Take away one quarter against Baylor and this team has been outstanding. They upset a top-5 Oklahoma, smashed #15 Oklahoma St, beat #20 WVU on ther road, and are projected to beat another top-10 team in K-State. Four quality wins and one "quality loss." They’re in.
As far as the other teams go, I still don’t see how any of the two-loss teams have enough going for them to be included over the four teams I’m projecting above. There is just not enough evidence in their favor that they belong in the playoff.