Using Bill Connelly’s conference win projections at Football Study Hall (Pac-12, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC), I have projected all of the remaining games for ranked unbeaten, one-loss teams (except for Marshall; if you want to go to the Playoff, all of your non-conference games can’t be against the MAC), and a select group of two-loss teams who are projected to win out. For the ACC teams, Notre Dame, ECU, I did my best to project their remaining games using F/+ ratings.
Scroll all the way to the bottom if you just want to see the top four.
Using the game projections, I found conference and overall win-loss records for the regular season as well as projected conference champions. Finally, using that information, I chose the most likely top-four teams who will be competing in the college football playoff.
Once the final records had been projected, to select the final four teams, I made a few assumptions beforehand. First of all, that undefeated Power 5 conference champions will be invited to the playoff. Secondly, the only possible two-loss teams to be invited would have to be from the SEC West or a conference champion. Third, that there is no way the committee will chose three teams from the same conference (even the SEC). Finally, that if two one-loss conference champions are available, the committee will look at the "quality" of those teams’ wins and loss.
#1 Mississippi St
Current Record: 6-0Current Conference Record: 3-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Kentucky | W | 7-0 | 4-0 |
Arkansas | W | 8-0 | 5-0 |
@ Alabama | L | 9-1 | 5-1 |
Vanderbilt | W | 10-1 | 6-1 |
@ Ole Miss | L | 10-2 | 6-2 |
#2 Florida St
Current Record: 7-0Current Conference Record: 4-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Louisville | W | 8-0 | 5-0 |
Virginia | W | 9-0 | 6-0 |
@ Miami | W | 10-0 | 7-0 |
Boston College | W | 11-0 | 8-0 |
Florida | W | 12-0 | 8-0 |
ACC Championship | W | 13-0 | 9-0 |
#3 Ole Miss
Current Record: 7-0Current Conference Record: 4-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ LSU | W | 8-0 | 5-0 |
Auburn | W | 9-0 | 6-0 |
@ Arkansas | W | 11-0 | 7-0 |
Mississippi St | W | 12-0 | 8-0 |
SEC Championship | W | 13-0 | 9-0* |
#4 Alabama
Current Record: 6-1Current Conference Record: 3-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Tennessee | W | 7-1 | 4-1 |
@ LSU | W | 8-1 | 5-1 |
Mississippi St | W | 9-1 | 6-1 |
Auburn | W | 11-1 | 7-1 |
#5 Auburn
Current Record: 5-1Current Conference Record: 2-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
South Carolina | W | 6-1 | 3-1 |
@ Ole Miss | L | 6-2 | 3-2 |
Texas A&M | W | 7-2 | 4-2 |
@ Georgia | L | 7-3 | 4-3 |
@ Alabama | L | 8-4 | 4-4 |
#6 Oregon
Current Record: 6-1Current Conference Record: 3-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Cal | W | 7-1 | 4-1 |
Stanford | W | 8-1 | 5-1 |
@ Utah | W | 9-1 | 6-1 |
Colorado | W | 10-1 | 7-1 |
@ Oregon St | W | 11-1 | 8-1 |
Pac-12 Championship | W | 12-1 | 9-1* |
#7 Notre Dame
Current Record: 6-1Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record |
@ Navy | W | 7-1 |
@ Arizona St | L | 7-2 |
Northwestern | W | 8-2 |
Louisville | W | 9-2 |
@ USC | L | 9-3 |
#8 Michigan St
Current Record: 6-1Current Conference Record: 3-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
Michigan | W | 7-1 | 4-0 |
Ohio St | L | 7-2 | 4-1 |
@ Maryland | W | 8-2 | 5-1 |
Rutgers | W | 9-2 | 6-1 |
@ Penn St | W | 10-2 | 7-1 |
#9 Georgia
Current Record: 6-1Current Conference Record: 4-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
Florida | W | 7-1 | 5-1 |
@ Kentucky | W | 8-1 | 6-1 |
Auburn | W | 9-1 | 7-1 |
Georgia Tech | W | 11-1 | 7-1 |
SEC Championship | L | 11-2 | 7-2 |
#10 TCU
Current Record: 5-1Current Conference Record: 2-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
Texas Tech | W | 6-1 | 3-1 |
@ West Virginia | W | 7-1 | 4-1 |
K-State | W | 8-1 | 5-1 |
@ Kansas | W | 9-1 | 6-1 |
@ Texas | W | 10-1 | 7-1 |
Iowa St | W | 11-1 | 8-1* |
#11 Kansas St
Current Record: 5-1Current Conference Record: 3-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
Texas | W | 6-1 | 4-0 |
Oklahoma St | W | 7-1 | 5-0 |
@ TCU | L | 7-2 | 5-1 |
@ West Virginia | L | 7-3 | 5-2 |
Kansas | W | 8-3 | 6-2 |
@ Baylor | L | 8-4 | 6-3 |
#12 Baylor
Current Record: 6-1Current Conference Record: 3-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
Kansas | W | 7-1 | 4-1 |
@ Oklahoma | L | 7-2 | 4-2 |
Oklahoma St | W | 8-2 | 5-2 |
Texas Tech | W | 9-2 | 6-2 |
K-State | W | 10-2 | 7-2 |
#13 Ohio St
Current Record: 5-1Current Conference Record: 2-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Penn St | W | 6-1 | 3-0 |
Illinois | W | 7-1 | 4-0 |
@ Michigan St | W | 8-1 | 5-0 |
@ Minnesota | W | 9-1 | 6-0 |
Indiana | W | 10-1 | 7-0 |
Michigan | W | 11-1 | 8-0 |
Big Ten Championship | W | 12-1 | 9-0* |
#14 Arizona St
Current Record: 5-1Current Conference Record: 3-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Washington | W | 6-1 | 4-1 |
Utah | W | 7-1 | 5-1 |
Notre Dame | W | 8-1 | 5-1 |
@ Oregon St | W | 9-1 | 6-1 |
Washington St | W | 10-1 | 7-1 |
@ Arizona | W | 11-1 | 8-1 |
Pac-12 Championship | L | 11-2 | 8-2 |
#15 Arizona
Current Record: 5-1Current Conference Record: 2-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Washington St | W | 6-1 | 3-1 |
@ UCLA | L | 6-2 | 3-2 |
Colorado | W | 7-2 | 4-2 |
Washington | W | 8-2 | 5-2 |
@ Utah | L | 8-3 | 5-3 |
Arizona St | L | 8-4 | 5-4 |
#16 Nebraska
Current Record: 6-1Current Conference Record: 2-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
Rutgers | W | 7-1 | 3-1 |
Purdue | W | 8-1 | 4-1 |
@ Wisconsin | W | 9-1 | 5-1 |
Minnesota | W | 10-1 | 6-1 |
@ Iowa | W | 11-1 | 7-1 |
Big Ten Championship | L | 11-2 | 7-2 |
#17 Oklahoma
Current Record: 5-2Current Conference Record: 2-2
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Iowa St | W | 6-2 | 3-2 |
Baylor | W | 7-2 | 4-2 |
@ Texas Tech | W | 8-2 | 5-2 |
Kansas | W | 9-2 | 6-2 |
Oklahoma St | W | 10-2 | 7-2 |
#18 East Carolina
Current Record: 6-1Current Conference Record: 3-0
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Temple | W | 7-1 | 4-0 |
@ Cincinnati | W | 8-1 | 5-0 |
Tulane | W | 9-1 | 6-0 |
@ Tulsa | W | 10-1 | 7-0 |
UCF | W | 11-1 | 8-0* |
#19 Utah
Current Record: 5-1Current Conference Record: 2-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
USC | Toss-Up | 6-1 or 5-2 | 3-1 or 2-2 |
@ Arizona St | L | 6-2 or 5-3 | 3-2 or 2-3 |
Oregon | L | 6-3 or 5-4 | 3-3 or 2-4 |
@ Stanford | L | 6-4 or 5-5 | 3-4 or 2-5 |
Arizona | W | 7-4 or 6-5 | 4-4 or 3-5 |
@ Colorado | W | 8-4 or 7-5 | 5-4 or 4-5 |
#21 Clemson
Current Record: 5-2Current Conference Record: 4-1
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
Syracuse | W | 6-2 | 5-1 |
@ Wake Forest | W | 7-2 | 6-1 |
@ Georgia Tech | W | 8-2 | 7-1 |
Georgia St | W | 9-2 | 7-1 |
South Carolina | W | 10-2 | 7-1 |
#25 UCLA
Current Record: 5-2Current Conference Record: 2-2
Remaining FBS Schedule
Opponent | W/L | Overall Record | Conference Record |
@ Colorado | W | 6-2 | 3-2 |
Arizona | W | 7-2 | 4-2 |
Washington | W | 8-2 | 5-2 |
USC | W | 9-2 | 6-2 |
Stanford | W | 10-2 | 7-2 |
Projected Records
TEAM | PROJ CONF REC | PROJ FINAL REC |
Ole Miss | 9-0 | 13-0* |
Florida St | 9-0 | 13-0* |
Oregon | 9-1 | 12-1* |
Ohio State | 9-0 | 12-1* |
TCU | 8-1 | 11-1* |
East Carolina | 8-0 | 11-1* |
Alabama | 7-1 | 11-1 |
Arizona State | 8-2 | 11-2 |
Georgia | 7-2 | 11-2 |
Nebraska | 7-2 | 11-2 |
Michigan State | 7-1 | 10-2 |
Clemson | 7-1 | 10-2 |
Oklahoma | 7-2 | 10-2 |
Baylor | 7-2 | 10-2 |
UCLA | 7-2 | 10-2 |
Mississippi St | 6-2 | 10-2 |
Notre Dame | 9-3 | |
Kansas State | 6-3 | 8-4 |
Arizona | 5-4 | 8-4 |
Auburn | 4-4 | 8-4 |
Utah | 5-4 or 4-5 | 8-4 or 7-5 |
Now that we have projected the remaining games, I think we can safely put Ole Miss and Florida St into the playoff as undefeated SEC and ACC conference champions, respectively. Also, I think we can safely eliminate teams with two or more losses from consideration.
Since there are no other relevant unbeaten teams, using my rules for playoff eligibility, the following teams make up the possible pool for the two remaining spots.
Team | Reason |
Oregon | Pac-12 Champ |
Ohio St | Big Ten Champ |
TCU | Big 12 Champ |
East Carolina | American Champ |
Alabama | Only Loss to SEC Champ who is already in |
Arizona St | Pac-12 Runners-Up |
Georgia | SEC Runners-Up |
Nebraska | Big 12 Runners-Up |
Other than those teams, I think you’d have a hard time making an argument for anyone else (even Mississippi St). With five one-loss teams (of which four are conference champions and the fifth being from the strongest division in the country), I can’t see how a two-loss team gets in.
That leaves us with Oregon, Ohio St, TCU, East Carolina, and Alabama. It’s time to look at quality of wins and losses.
Oregon’s loss to an unranked Arizona and barely squeaking by Washington St make them an unlikely pick out of these five.
Despite hanging half a hundred on four teams in a row, Ohio St‘s loss to Virginia Tech is looking worse and worse every week. And save Michigan St, their schedule is super weak.
TCU makes a good case for being chosen. They have strong wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma St and their loss came at the hands of a quality Baylor team who they dominated for three of four quarters.
East Carolina. You almost lost to UConn. Sorry, you’re out.
While Alabama hasn’t been who most thought they would be, a huge win over Texas A&M and their only loss being a six-point deficit to arguably the best team in the nation. I think they’re in.
That’s it. There you have your advanced-stats-projected top-four college football playoff teams.
TOP 4
- Ole Miss
- Florida St
- Alabama
- TCU