College football turnovers luck in 2013

Elsa

Sometimes the ball does lie.

Sometimes the ball lies, Rasheed, at least in football.

We can go pretty deep into the numbers to gauge who's good and who's bad, who's efficient and who's not. But the ball is still pointy, and it bounces the way it chooses to bounce sometimes. More than in any other sport, you have to be both lucky and good to win a lot of football games.

In my offseason preview series each year, I've tried to get at this idea by discussing turnovers luck. The concepts are pretty simple: Over time, you're going to recover about 50 percent of all fumbles, but in a given year, you might recover 70 percent, or you might recover 30. The same goes with passes defensed; on average, you can expect to intercept about 22 percent of the passes you defense. (Passes defensed = interceptions + break-ups.) This is a bit mushier a concept, as we'll discuss below, but over time a particularly butter-fingered year will be balanced by a sticky one.

I'll be using the concept of turnovers luck throughout this year's offseason preview series (which, no lie, begins in under a month), but I thought I would break down all the numbers for you in one place first.

Fumbles

For whom did the ball bounce nicely in 2013? Oklahoma, for starters. The Sooners were quite good (lucky) at falling on the bouncy, pointy ball this past season, and it helped them to win an improbable 11 games. They were 3-0 in one-possession games and 7-0 in games decided by 14 or fewer points. They recovered all three fumbles against Oklahoma State (two of theirs, one of OSU's) in a game in which they trailed until the final 20 seconds, and they recovered all four fumbles against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, taking one of Bama's back for a touchdown. OU played well in tight games, but the Sooners got help. (You might want to remember that when you're getting ready to put OU in your preseason top 5 this coming year. You know you're going to, and you know you're probably making a mistake.)

On the flipside, Akron managed to go 4-3 in one-possession games despite recovering fewer than one of every three fumbles. With OU bounces, the Zips might have gone 7-5.

Team Opponent Fumbles Fumbles Recovered Fumbles Fumbles Lost TOTAL FUMBLES FUMBLES RECOVERED FR%
Oklahoma 14 9 18 5 32 22 68.8%
Bowling Green 18 13 9 4 27 18 66.7%
Wisconsin 20 11 18 4 38 25 65.8%
Massachusetts 15 11 20 8 35 23 65.7%
Temple 12 10 16 8 28 18 64.3%
Ball State 20 18 16 11 36 23 63.9%
East Carolina 11 6 19 6 30 19 63.3%
Miami (Ohio) 12 9 23 10 35 22 62.9%
Houston 26 18 17 8 43 27 62.8%
Mississippi State 17 11 15 6 32 20 62.5%
Michigan 15 9 22 8 37 23 62.2%
Texas State 13 8 16 6 29 18 62.1%
Virginia 21 11 29 9 50 31 62.0%
Buffalo 22 15 14 7 36 22 61.1%
South Alabama 13 7 12 4 25 15 60.0%
North Texas 25 16 19 9 44 26 59.1%
UL-Lafayette 19 9 25 8 44 26 59.1%
UCLA 26 12 25 7 51 30 58.8%
BYU 17 10 17 7 34 20 58.8%
Purdue 10 7 19 9 29 17 58.6%
Duke 15 8 16 6 31 18 58.1%
Tulane 24 16 14 8 38 22 57.9%
Utah 25 13 13 4 38 22 57.9%
Oregon 22 12 30 12 52 30 57.7%
Hawaii 25 15 27 12 52 30 57.7%
Middle Tennessee 30 18 14 7 44 25 56.8%
Florida State 17 9 13 5 30 17 56.7%
Missouri 18 12 14 8 32 18 56.3%
Navy 18 9 16 6 34 19 55.9%
Connecticut 19 11 15 7 34 19 55.9%
Washington State 25 14 24 11 49 27 55.1%
N.C. State 17 9 14 6 31 17 54.8%
South Florida 22 14 22 12 44 24 54.5%
Tennessee 19 11 14 7 33 18 54.5%
Iowa State 25 13 19 8 44 24 54.5%
Utah State 25 13 21 9 46 25 54.3%
Auburn 16 6 30 11 46 25 54.3%
Arizona State 22 12 13 6 35 19 54.3%
Georgia State 15 9 22 11 37 20 54.1%
Kentucky 22 12 19 9 41 22 53.7%
Central Florida 21 12 20 10 41 22 53.7%
Texas Tech 23 11 35 15 58 31 53.4%
Texas 30 16 15 7 45 24 53.3%
Florida 13 8 21 11 34 18 52.9%
Ole Miss 19 9 19 8 38 20 52.6%
West Virginia 27 16 30 16 57 30 52.6%
Oregon State 21 10 23 10 44 23 52.3%
Wyoming 20 11 24 12 44 23 52.3%
Illinois 15 8 14 7 29 15 51.7%
Arkansas State 19 11 12 7 31 16 51.6%
UTEP 17 9 16 8 33 17 51.5%
Minnesota 17 9 18 9 35 18 51.4%
Oklahoma State 26 12 13 5 39 20 51.3%
Georgia Tech 17 6 28 11 45 23 51.1%
Clemson 24 12 25 12 49 25 51.0%
Baylor 27 10 28 10 55 28 50.9%
South Carolina 17 12 19 13 36 18 50.0%
Nevada 16 8 12 6 28 14 50.0%
Kansas 18 10 20 11 38 19 50.0%
USC 16 6 20 8 36 18 50.0%
Toledo 23 12 11 6 34 17 50.0%
Rice 19 12 15 10 34 17 50.0%
Northern Illinois 19 11 15 9 34 17 50.0%
Ohio 15 8 21 11 36 18 50.0%
California 15 8 27 14 42 21 50.0%
Colorado State 27 12 21 9 48 24 50.0%
Georgia 18 8 22 10 40 20 50.0%
UTSA 10 6 14 8 24 12 50.0%
Western Michigan 21 11 15 8 36 18 50.0%
Southern Miss 24 13 22 12 46 23 50.0%
Maryland 17 10 32 18 49 24 49.0%
TCU 20 9 27 13 47 23 48.9%
San Diego State 18 11 27 16 45 22 48.9%
Virginia Tech 21 7 14 4 35 17 48.6%
Miami 17 9 14 8 31 15 48.4%
Texas A&M 13 5 18 8 31 15 48.4%
Army 19 10 23 13 42 20 47.6%
New Mexico State 17 10 21 13 38 18 47.4%
Idaho 15 9 23 14 38 18 47.4%
Arizona 12 4 24 11 36 17 47.2%
North Carolina 20 8 16 7 36 17 47.2%
Louisville 23 11 11 6 34 16 47.1%
Syracuse 22 9 12 5 34 16 47.1%
Colorado 20 11 14 9 34 16 47.1%
Indiana 22 10 12 6 34 16 47.1%
Iowa 17 8 13 7 30 14 46.7%
Rutgers 23 10 16 8 39 18 46.2%
Ohio State 17 8 18 10 35 16 45.7%
New Mexico 16 6 19 9 35 16 45.7%
Boise State 18 11 18 13 36 16 44.4%
Air Force 15 5 19 9 34 15 44.1%
Eastern Michigan 9 4 16 9 25 11 44.0%
Washington 17 7 15 8 32 14 43.8%
Florida International 14 6 18 10 32 14 43.8%
Arkansas 12 6 20 12 32 14 43.8%
Florida Atlantic 13 6 17 10 30 13 43.3%
UAB 17 7 20 11 37 16 43.2%
Cincinnati 18 8 19 11 37 16 43.2%
Kent State 12 4 16 8 28 12 42.9%
Tulsa 14 9 21 15 35 15 42.9%
Vanderbilt 33 12 16 7 49 21 42.9%
Stanford 20 6 20 9 40 17 42.5%
Fresno State 16 9 17 12 33 14 42.4%
Boston College 21 11 12 9 33 14 42.4%
Penn State 17 7 21 12 38 16 42.1%
Kansas State 18 8 20 12 38 16 42.1%
UNLV 22 9 9 5 31 13 41.9%
Western Kentucky 17 7 26 15 43 18 41.9%
Wake Forest 21 9 15 9 36 15 41.7%
Memphis 12 7 22 15 34 14 41.2%
Michigan State 22 11 10 8 32 13 40.6%
Louisiana Tech 15 8 20 14 35 14 40.0%
Nebraska 18 4 32 16 50 20 40.0%
SMU 21 6 23 12 44 17 38.6%
Central Michigan 20 8 15 10 35 13 37.1%
Notre Dame 12 4 7 4 19 7 36.8%
Northwestern 11 4 11 7 22 8 36.4%
Alabama 20 8 14 10 34 12 35.3%
LSU 22 8 15 10 37 13 35.1%
San Jose State 12 5 11 8 23 8 34.8%
Marshall 14 8 15 13 29 10 34.5%
UL-Monroe 19 6 14 9 33 11 33.3%
Pittsburgh 22 8 11 8 33 11 33.3%
Troy 24 5 18 9 42 14 33.3%
Akron 19 6 16 11 35 11 31.4%

Passes Defensed

As mentioned above, this concept is a bit mushier. Not every defensed pass is created equally. For one thing, not every defensed pass is RECORDED equally; one scorekeeper's definition of a break-up might not be another's. But we're not talking about QB hurries here (hurries are worthless because one scorekeeper calls almost anything a hurry, and another won't document any at all); the PBU is, from what I've been able to gather, relatively consistent from school to school and year to year. It's consistent enough, anyway, to use here.

There is also a skill aspect to defensed passes. Some defenders are simply more likely to catch a ball than others. The "They can't catch passes; that's why they're on defense" theorem isn't always true. But even a player like David Amerson regressed toward the mean over time. In 2011, Amerson rode a wave of good fortune, intercepting 13 passes while breaking up only five. On average, you pick off 22 percent of your defensed passes, meaning 18 passes defensed should have netted a normal player four picks. In 2012, he defensed 17 passes, almost the same as the year before. But he picked off only five (29 percent). Maybe his hands were better than those of the normal DB, but 2012 suggested that 2011 was pretty lucky.

With that in mind, I think we can still call certain outliers lucky or unlucky in 2013. South Carolina's offense had only four passes intercepted to 27 PBUs; that INT total probably should have been closer to about seven. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks also picked off 18 passes to 33 PBUs. On average, that would be closer to 11. I think we can safely say there was some good fortune there. And on the other side of the table, it's safe to say that Kansas State (13 offensive INTs to 17 PBUs) and Utah (three defensive INTs to 52 PBUs) were pretty damn unlucky.

"Diff. from Avg." is calculated by looking at the difference between a team's %INT and the national average of 22%. So for South Carolina, it was as follows: (22% - 12.9%) + (35.3% - 22%) = +22.4%.

Team Off. INT Off. PBU %INT Def. INT Def. PBU %INT Diff. from Avg.
South Carolina 4 27 12.9% 18 33 35.3% 22.4%
Oregon State 16 65 19.8% 19 28 40.4% 20.7%
Houston 10 76 11.6% 25 55 31.3% 19.6%
Navy 4 14 22.2% 13 20 39.4% 17.2%
Louisville 4 39 9.3% 16 46 25.8% 16.5%
Ball State 8 61 11.6% 13 38 25.5% 13.9%
Arizona 7 30 18.9% 18 37 32.7% 13.8%
Missouri 8 51 13.6% 20 54 27.0% 13.5%
Michigan State 7 44 13.7% 17 46 27.0% 13.3%
Florida State 13 46 22.0% 26 49 34.7% 12.6%
Akron 10 49 16.9% 13 31 29.5% 12.6%
Nevada 5 52 8.8% 10 37 21.3% 12.5%
Mississippi State 12 69 14.8% 14 38 26.9% 12.1%
New Mexico State 13 45 22.4% 10 19 34.5% 12.1%
Arizona State 12 43 21.8% 21 41 33.9% 12.1%
Baylor 6 45 11.8% 19 63 23.2% 11.4%
Marshall 10 61 14.1% 18 58 23.7% 9.6%
Buffalo 8 54 12.9% 15 54 21.7% 8.8%
Louisiana Tech 15 58 20.5% 18 44 29.0% 8.5%
Ole Miss 13 65 16.7% 13 39 25.0% 8.3%
Michigan 13 37 26.0% 17 33 34.0% 8.0%
UAB 9 48 15.8% 7 23 23.3% 7.5%
Utah State 10 56 15.2% 17 58 22.7% 7.5%
Middle Tennessee 15 46 24.6% 15 32 31.9% 7.3%
Maryland 10 43 18.9% 11 31 26.2% 7.3%
East Carolina 10 60 14.3% 18 67 21.2% 6.9%
Fresno State 10 61 14.1% 14 54 20.6% 6.5%
Clemson 12 39 23.5% 18 42 30.0% 6.5%
Kent State 9 49 15.5% 9 32 22.0% 6.4%
Oklahoma State 13 52 20.0% 21 60 25.9% 5.9%
Oregon 6 29 17.1% 17 57 23.0% 5.8%
Toledo 10 32 23.8% 8 19 29.6% 5.8%
Boise State 11 45 19.6% 16 47 25.4% 5.8%
Notre Dame 13 43 23.2% 13 32 28.9% 5.7%
Syracuse 17 44 27.9% 15 30 33.3% 5.5%
USC 9 36 20.0% 17 51 25.0% 5.0%
Army 4 15 21.1% 7 20 25.9% 4.9%
Georgia State 12 52 18.8% 7 23 23.3% 4.6%
SMU 12 67 15.2% 11 45 19.6% 4.5%
TCU 17 61 21.8% 19 54 26.0% 4.2%
Bowling Green 7 52 11.9% 8 42 16.0% 4.1%
Washington State 24 58 29.3% 16 32 33.3% 4.1%
Miami 14 42 25.0% 18 44 29.0% 4.0%
Central Michigan 17 49 25.8% 14 33 29.8% 4.0%
Kansas 12 56 17.6% 14 51 21.5% 3.9%
Rice 9 50 15.3% 14 61 18.7% 3.4%
Idaho 13 47 21.7% 10 31 24.4% 2.7%
Miami (Ohio) 11 48 18.6% 10 37 21.3% 2.6%
Virginia Tech 15 46 24.6% 19 51 27.1% 2.6%
West Virginia 16 56 22.2% 12 37 24.5% 2.3%
Purdue 13 31 29.5% 13 28 31.7% 2.2%
South Florida 16 40 28.6% 11 25 30.6% 2.0%
UL-Monroe 14 38 26.9% 13 32 28.9% 2.0%
Oklahoma 11 35 23.9% 16 46 25.8% 1.9%
N.C. State 15 47 24.2% 12 34 26.1% 1.9%
Eastern Michigan 14 44 24.1% 7 20 25.9% 1.8%
Northern Illinois 8 31 20.5% 19 67 22.1% 1.6%
South Alabama 9 41 18.0% 11 46 19.3% 1.3%
Florida Atlantic 11 40 21.6% 13 44 22.8% 1.2%
UCLA 9 26 25.7% 14 38 26.9% 1.2%
Penn State 10 43 18.9% 13 54 19.4% 0.5%
Washington 8 27 22.9% 16 55 22.5% -0.3%
Memphis 11 43 20.4% 11 44 20.0% -0.4%
Ohio 13 47 21.7% 14 52 21.2% -0.5%
Northwestern 13 34 27.7% 19 51 27.1% -0.5%
LSU 9 44 17.0% 11 56 16.4% -0.6%
Florida 9 40 18.4% 10 47 17.5% -0.8%
Texas A&M 13 31 29.5% 17 43 28.3% -1.2%
Texas State 11 38 22.4% 11 41 21.2% -1.3%
Kentucky 6 48 11.1% 3 28 9.7% -1.4%
UNLV 10 45 18.2% 11 55 16.7% -1.5%
North Texas 14 36 28.0% 18 50 26.5% -1.5%
Wyoming 12 42 22.2% 9 35 20.5% -1.8%
Tulane 16 51 23.9% 19 68 21.8% -2.0%
Western Kentucky 16 34 32.0% 14 33 29.8% -2.2%
Minnesota 7 30 18.9% 10 50 16.7% -2.3%
Alabama 7 28 20.0% 11 51 17.7% -2.3%
North Carolina 11 37 22.9% 13 50 20.6% -2.3%
Tulsa 19 69 21.6% 15 63 19.2% -2.4%
Tennessee 17 41 29.3% 14 38 26.9% -2.4%
Iowa 15 39 27.8% 13 39 25.0% -2.8%
Florida International 10 37 21.3% 7 31 18.4% -2.9%
San Jose State 14 38 26.9% 12 38 24.0% -2.9%
Auburn 8 28 22.2% 13 55 19.1% -3.1%
Nebraska 13 31 29.5% 14 40 25.9% -3.6%
Ohio State 9 26 25.7% 16 58 21.6% -4.1%
Colorado State 11 44 20.0% 10 54 15.6% -4.4%
Texas 15 55 21.4% 10 49 16.9% -4.5%
Pittsburgh 9 34 20.9% 8 41 16.3% -4.6%
Arkansas State 7 29 19.4% 9 57 13.6% -5.8%
BYU 14 54 20.6% 13 75 14.8% -5.8%
Arkansas 11 37 22.9% 8 39 17.0% -5.9%
Wake Forest 14 35 28.6% 12 41 22.6% -5.9%
San Diego State 14 52 21.2% 8 45 15.1% -6.1%
Air Force 4 17 19.0% 4 28 12.5% -6.5%
California 14 61 18.7% 5 37 11.9% -6.8%
Central Florida 11 33 25.0% 14 63 18.2% -6.8%
Georgia 12 49 19.7% 7 48 12.7% -6.9%
Connecticut 18 43 29.5% 13 45 22.4% -7.1%
Vanderbilt 16 37 30.2% 18 60 23.1% -7.1%
Stanford 10 24 29.4% 13 46 22.0% -7.4%
Boston College 8 20 28.6% 9 34 20.9% -7.6%
UTSA 13 41 24.1% 8 41 16.3% -7.7%
Troy 9 35 20.5% 6 42 12.5% -8.0%
Colorado 15 37 28.8% 10 38 20.8% -8.0%
UL-Lafayette 14 23 37.8% 14 33 29.8% -8.1%
Cincinnati 17 38 30.9% 13 44 22.8% -8.1%
Virginia 17 56 23.3% 10 56 15.2% -8.1%
Texas Tech 18 69 20.7% 8 60 11.8% -8.9%
Hawaii 22 66 25.0% 9 47 16.1% -8.9%
Western Michigan 18 56 24.3% 8 45 15.1% -9.2%
New Mexico 5 17 22.7% 4 27 12.9% -9.8%
Georgia Tech 13 23 36.1% 14 40 25.9% -10.2%
UTEP 10 38 20.8% 3 30 9.1% -11.7%
Iowa State 14 45 23.7% 8 59 11.9% -11.8%
Wisconsin 15 37 28.8% 9 45 16.7% -12.2%
Indiana 14 42 25.0% 7 54 11.5% -13.5%
Massachusetts 18 39 31.6% 8 38 17.4% -14.2%
Southern Miss 26 52 33.3% 6 26 18.8% -14.6%
Temple 11 36 23.4% 3 33 8.3% -15.1%
Illinois 14 42 25.0% 3 28 9.7% -15.3%
Duke 19 29 39.6% 18 57 24.0% -15.6%
Rutgers 22 49 31.0% 8 49 14.0% -17.0%
Kansas State 13 17 43.3% 17 51 25.0% -18.3%
Utah 21 47 30.9% 3 52 5.5% -25.4%

Overall Turnovers Luck

While acknowledging that this isn't a 100% perfect concept -- that offenses recover 51% of fumbles, and that not every PBU is created equally -- here's a look at who most likely benefited from some serious luck-of-the-bounce in 2013.

Below you'll find both a team's turnover margin and an adjusted turnover margin based on what might have happened with normal fumbles luck and 22% PD rates for both offense and defense.

You'll also find a "Turnover Luck per Game" number. Here's how that's derived: On average, a turnover is worth about five points when you look at field position lost (by the offense) and gained (by the defense). So if you look at the difference between, say, Houston's turnover margin and adjusted turnover margin, you see the Cougars were +25 when they should have been about +3.8. They were +21.2 turnovers. 21.2 times 5 = about 106 points. 106 points divided by 13 games = about 8.2 points per game.

The five luckiest teams in the country when it comes to turnovers were Houston, Ball State, Mississippi State, Oregon State, and Florida State. Unluckiest? Indiana, Southern Miss, Troy, Rutgers, and Utah. Luck didn't necessarily play the role one might think with these teams. For a team like MSU, it helped a lot; the Bulldogs went 4-1 in one-possession games. Meanwhile, Southern Miss and Indiana were each 0-2. But Houston was just 1-4 in such games; turnovers helped the Cougars stay just close enough for their general inexperience to hurt them. And in the end, the five luckiest teams went 10-10 in one-possession games while the five unluckiest went 11-11.

Team Off. Turnovers Def. Turnovers TO Margin Adj. Off. Turnovers Adj. Def. Turnovers Adj. TO Margin Diff TO Luck/Game
Houston 18 43 25 27.4 31.1 3.8 21.2 +8.17
Ball State 19 31 12 23.1 21.6 -1.6 13.6 +5.21
Mississippi State 18 25 7 25.3 20.3 -5.0 12.0 +4.61
Oregon State 26 29 3 29.3 21.2 -8.1 11.1 +4.25
Florida State 18 35 17 19.5 25.5 6.0 11.0 +3.93
Missouri 16 32 16 19.9 25.7 5.8 10.2 +3.65
South Carolina 17 30 13 16.3 20.1 3.8 9.2 +3.54
Buffalo 15 30 15 20.6 26.6 6.0 9.0 +3.45
East Carolina 16 24 8 24.9 24.7 -0.2 8.2 +3.15
Michigan 21 26 5 21.9 18.8 -3.1 8.1 +3.12
Arizona State 18 33 15 18.6 25.1 6.5 8.5 +3.03
Nevada 11 18 7 18.5 18.7 0.1 6.9 +2.85
Navy 10 22 12 11.9 16.5 4.6 7.4 +2.84
Oklahoma 16 25 9 19.1 21.0 1.9 7.1 +2.71
Bowling Green 11 21 10 17.5 20.4 2.9 7.1 +2.54
Louisville 10 27 17 14.9 25.6 10.6 6.4 +2.44
Ole Miss 21 22 1 26.6 21.3 -5.3 6.3 +2.43
Miami (Ohio) 21 19 -2 24.4 16.6 -7.8 5.8 +2.41
Baylor 16 29 13 25.1 32.1 7.0 6.0 +2.32
Utah State 19 30 11 25.0 29.5 4.5 6.5 +2.30
Oregon 18 29 11 22.6 27.8 5.2 5.8 +2.24
Arizona 18 22 4 20.1 18.4 -1.6 5.6 +2.17
Middle Tennessee 22 33 11 20.4 25.8 5.4 5.6 +2.16
UCLA 16 26 10 20.1 24.9 4.7 5.3 +2.02
Oklahoma State 18 33 15 20.8 31.4 10.6 4.4 +1.70
Clemson 24 30 6 23.6 25.6 2.0 4.0 +1.54
Georgia State 23 16 -7 25.0 14.3 -10.7 3.7 +1.53
Michigan State 15 28 13 16.2 25.3 9.1 3.9 +1.39
North Texas 23 34 11 20.4 27.9 7.5 3.5 +1.35
Kentucky 15 15 0 21.3 18.1 -3.2 3.2 +1.34
Purdue 22 20 -2 19.1 14.3 -4.8 2.8 +1.19
South Alabama 13 18 5 17.0 19.4 2.4 2.6 +1.08
Texas State 17 19 2 18.7 18.3 -0.5 2.5 +1.03
Maryland 28 21 -7 27.6 18.0 -9.5 2.5 +0.97
Kansas 23 24 1 24.9 23.7 -1.2 2.2 +0.91
USC 17 23 6 19.8 23.4 3.5 2.5 +0.88
New Mexico State 26 20 -6 23.2 15.1 -8.1 2.1 +0.86
West Virginia 32 28 -4 30.8 24.7 -6.1 2.1 +0.86
TCU 30 28 -2 30.6 26.5 -4.1 2.1 +0.86
N.C. State 21 21 0 20.6 18.9 -1.7 1.7 +0.69
Marshall 23 26 3 23.1 24.2 1.1 1.9 +0.69
Miami 22 27 5 19.3 22.5 3.3 1.7 +0.67
Fresno State 22 23 1 24.1 23.4 -0.7 1.7 +0.65
Louisiana Tech 29 26 -3 26.0 21.5 -4.5 1.5 +0.62
Kent State 17 13 -4 20.7 15.3 -5.4 1.4 +0.60
Washington State 35 30 -5 30.0 23.5 -6.5 1.5 +0.59
UL-Lafayette 22 23 1 20.6 20.2 -0.4 1.4 +0.53
UAB 20 14 -6 22.5 15.4 -7.1 1.1 +0.47
South Florida 28 25 -3 23.3 19.2 -4.0 1.0 +0.43
Toledo 16 20 4 14.7 17.7 3.0 1.0 +0.41
Virginia Tech 19 26 7 20.4 26.4 6.0 1.0 +0.39
Tulane 24 35 11 21.7 31.7 10.0 1.0 +0.39
Boise State 24 27 3 21.3 23.3 2.0 1.0 +0.39
Rice 19 26 7 20.4 26.5 6.0 1.0 +0.35
Syracuse 22 24 2 19.4 21.3 1.9 0.1 +0.05
Northern Illinois 17 30 13 16.0 28.9 12.9 0.1 +0.04
Virginia 26 21 -5 30.5 25.5 -5.0 0.0 +0.01
Army 17 17 0 15.6 15.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.04
Florida 20 18 -2 21.2 19.4 -1.8 -0.2 -0.07
Idaho 27 19 -8 24.6 16.8 -7.8 -0.2 -0.07
Wyoming 24 20 -4 23.8 20.0 -3.8 -0.2 -0.09
Notre Dame 17 17 0 15.8 16.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.14
Texas A&M 21 22 1 18.6 20.1 1.4 -0.4 -0.17
Auburn 19 19 0 22.8 23.4 0.6 -0.6 -0.20
Akron 21 19 -2 20.9 19.5 -1.4 -0.6 -0.24
Tennessee 24 25 1 19.7 21.3 1.6 -0.6 -0.24
Ohio 24 22 -2 23.6 22.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.30
Wisconsin 19 20 1 20.4 22.3 1.9 -0.9 -0.34
SMU 24 17 -7 28.8 23.2 -5.6 -1.4 -0.58
Texas 22 26 4 22.9 28.5 5.6 -1.6 -0.61
Florida Atlantic 21 19 -2 19.7 19.4 -0.3 -1.7 -0.71
Minnesota 16 19 3 17.1 22.1 5.0 -2.0 -0.77
Temple 19 13 -6 18.3 14.2 -4.1 -1.9 -0.78
Eastern Michigan 23 11 -12 20.7 10.6 -10.1 -1.9 -0.79
California 28 13 -15 29.9 17.0 -12.9 -2.1 -0.88
Washington 16 23 7 15.2 24.6 9.4 -2.4 -0.92
Massachusetts 26 19 -7 22.5 17.9 -4.6 -2.4 -1.02
Hawaii 34 24 -10 32.8 25.2 -7.5 -2.5 -1.02
Northwestern 20 23 3 15.8 21.3 5.5 -2.5 -1.03
North Carolina 18 21 3 18.5 24.3 5.8 -2.8 -1.06
Georgia Tech 24 20 -4 21.8 20.7 -1.1 -2.9 -1.12
Iowa 22 21 -1 18.3 20.3 1.9 -2.9 -1.13
BYU 21 23 2 23.4 28.4 5.0 -3.0 -1.14
Connecticut 25 24 -1 20.9 22.7 1.8 -2.8 -1.15
Colorado State 20 22 2 22.5 28.1 5.5 -3.5 -1.26
Central Florida 21 26 5 19.6 27.9 8.3 -3.3 -1.27
Ohio State 19 24 5 16.6 25.2 8.6 -3.6 -1.28
Florida International 20 13 -7 19.3 15.6 -3.7 -3.3 -1.39
UTEP 18 12 -6 18.5 16.0 -2.5 -3.5 -1.46
Penn State 22 20 -2 22.1 23.7 1.6 -3.6 -1.48
Memphis 26 18 -8 22.8 18.4 -4.4 -3.6 -1.51
Central Michigan 27 22 -5 22.0 20.7 -1.3 -3.7 -1.54
San Diego State 30 19 -11 27.9 21.0 -6.9 -4.1 -1.57
Georgia 22 15 -7 24.4 21.5 -2.9 -4.1 -1.58
UNLV 15 20 5 16.6 26.0 9.4 -4.4 -1.69
Texas Tech 33 19 -14 36.5 26.9 -9.6 -4.4 -1.69
Arkansas State 14 20 6 13.9 24.4 10.6 -4.6 -1.75
Duke 25 26 1 18.5 24.4 5.9 -4.9 -1.76
UTSA 21 14 -7 18.8 16.1 -2.8 -4.2 -1.76
Air Force 13 9 -4 14.1 14.8 0.7 -4.7 -1.97
Boston College 17 20 3 12.1 20.3 8.2 -5.2 -1.99
New Mexico 14 10 -4 14.3 15.1 0.8 -4.8 -2.00
Tulsa 34 24 -10 29.8 24.6 -5.2 -4.8 -2.00
Stanford 19 19 0 17.4 23.4 6.0 -6.0 -2.13
Arkansas 23 14 -9 20.5 16.6 -3.9 -5.1 -2.14
Western Kentucky 31 21 -10 23.9 19.2 -4.7 -5.3 -2.19
Illinois 21 11 -10 19.3 14.6 -4.7 -5.3 -2.20
UL-Monroe 23 19 -4 18.4 19.7 1.3 -5.3 -2.22
San Jose State 22 17 -5 16.9 17.3 0.4 -5.4 -2.25
Colorado 24 21 -3 18.4 20.9 2.5 -5.5 -2.30
Western Michigan 26 19 -7 23.7 22.5 -1.2 -5.8 -2.42
Nebraska 29 18 -11 25.6 21.2 -4.3 -6.7 -2.57
Iowa State 22 21 -1 22.4 27.7 5.3 -6.3 -2.62
Wake Forest 23 21 -2 18.2 22.5 4.3 -6.3 -2.63
LSU 19 19 0 19.1 26.2 7.1 -7.1 -2.72
Cincinnati 28 21 -7 21.5 21.9 0.4 -7.4 -2.84
Alabama 17 19 2 14.7 24.1 9.4 -7.4 -2.85
Vanderbilt 23 30 7 19.6 34.2 14.6 -7.6 -2.93
Kansas State 25 25 0 16.5 24.4 7.9 -7.9 -3.02
Pittsburgh 17 16 -1 14.9 22.2 7.2 -8.2 -3.16
Indiana 20 17 -3 18.3 24.8 6.6 -9.6 -3.98
Southern Miss 38 19 -19 28.1 19.4 -8.8 -10.2 -4.27
Troy 18 11 -7 18.6 22.9 4.3 -11.3 -4.72
Rutgers 30 18 -12 23.6 24.5 0.9 -12.9 -4.95
Utah 25 16 -9 21.4 25.0 3.6 -12.6 -5.25

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